tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post338703503804145458..comments2023-09-15T01:11:46.814-07:00Comments on CatholicLeft: Review of the Stockport Council election resultsCatholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-23282454512561830252012-06-17T15:39:46.649-07:002012-06-17T15:39:46.649-07:00Labour made a hugh mistake in May not targeting Cl...Labour made a hugh mistake in May not targeting Cllr Derbyshire she is by far the most able of the LiB Dem bunch and is already setting her stamp on the Town HallAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-76104318142869030162012-05-18T14:34:01.748-07:002012-05-18T14:34:01.748-07:00Read each of my comments on the wards, I have rema...Read each of my comments on the wards, I have remarked on the success of the Lib Dems where it was exceptional. I have no axe to grind. <br /><br />Amyway, your opinion has now been expressed so I think it is best to move on. <br /><br />Os a chionn agus ar aghaidh!Catholic Left-wingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-37678294299364572972012-05-18T09:51:48.200-07:002012-05-18T09:51:48.200-07:00:\ Angry? I'm merely stating a point of view a...:\ Angry? I'm merely stating a point of view about your analysis basis being flawed because the percentages do little to elucidate the Liberals overall managed to buck the national trend in terms of their capacity to maintain a critical mass of voters turning out. The issue for me with the analysis is purely academic. I suggest that Labour needed to take Manor in order to achieve status as the Boroughs Largest Party in the next two years and for the Tories to take hazel grove. My contention is that the narrow results are significant in appreciation of the information released by Cllr McAuley across the borough. As a consequence what I'm saying is to suggest the McAuley factor is insignificant does not reflect in the real data i.e. the numerical evidence. If Labour are to progress in Stockport they will have to hope the economy remains flatlined and that they can get the same 40 tamesiders out in Manor as well as in Offerton at the next election. Furthermore if they aren't the biggest party by the time they are in Government at the next general election then they will never achieve largest party status in Stockport. On that basis it can hardly be regarded as a good night for Labour.King Billy of Stockportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-6370993013686887742012-05-18T07:36:48.667-07:002012-05-18T07:36:48.667-07:00Sigh.
I am not a politician or member of any poli...Sigh.<br /><br />I am not a politician or member of any political party, I fell out with the Labour Party a long time ago. <br /><br />Election results in Stockport from 2003:<br /><br />2003 Lib Dem: 41.3%, Con: 30.1%, Lab: 22.2%<br />2004 Lib Dem: 38.8%, Con: 28.9%, Lab: 20.6%<br />2006 Lib Dem: 39.1%, Con: 32.8%, Lab: 18.3%<br />2007 Lib Dem: 40.4%, Con: 31.8%, Lab: 17.5%<br />2008 Lib Dem: 39.6%, Con: 35.2%, Lab: 15.9%<br />2010 Lib Dem: 40.0%, Con: 30.3%, Lab: 22.9%<br />2011 Lib Dem: 29.3%, Con: 30.2%, Lab: 31.6%<br />2012 Lib Dem: 31.0%, Con: 25.3%, Lab: 33.4%<br /><br />These are the statistics for Stockport - Labour got its highest share of the vote in many years in May (even up on 2011), the Liberal Democrats got their second worst result in recent memory and the Conservatives fell back very badly.<br /><br />Exactly how could this be described as a bad night for Labour (because none of my Lib Dem and Conservative supporting fellows see it as such)?<br /><br />You are angry with someone but it isn't (or shouldn't be) me. I suggest you look back at my original reflection on Manor and notice that I congratulated Cllr Derbyshire on her win because when things are close local variables do count and, in her case, her long service as councillor and hard working campaign is likely to be the major reason she has held her seat(along with everything else I suggest). <br /><br />My original predictions were based on the local makeup of each ward and I am sure I have never impuned anybody's ability to think rationally - indeed, the whole point of tactical voting, which I posit as being one of the reason for Cllr Derbyshire's victory, is that it is a decision based upon a person's choice.<br /><br />To deny that national issues effected the results goes against the opinion of most politicians and political commentators and I dare say that the closeness of the result in Manor will be mostly put down to that by the local Liberal Democrats than any failings on their part as the local administration. <br /><br />Thankfully, I will never run for election - if you have a response to my specific point about whether Labour's best share of the vote in Stockport Borough counts as a good night for them, I will respond, otherwise, this is getting really daft.Catholic Left-wingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-57294623856665094202012-05-17T12:46:48.048-07:002012-05-17T12:46:48.048-07:00The actual numerical evidence is not to the contra...The actual numerical evidence is not to the contrary at all. As I said in the beginning your reductionist approach is leaving out and reducing key variables as insignificant anomolies that ultimately squew your analysis toward developing along the lines of a good night for Labour. Furthermore your suggesting that voters appear to be following some kind of national trend or confused model based broadly on a national swing suggesting the electorate and local campaigners are incapable of rational thought in relation to local issues and simply follow a national trend. The reality is that it is this kind of analysis that cost Labour the bradford By election. The out of touch senario that Mr Miliband likes to pontificate about. I'd be weary of your statistics if you ever decide to run for office yourself you may come a cropper.King Billy of Stockportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-41756731051311723182012-05-17T09:57:00.999-07:002012-05-17T09:57:00.999-07:00We will agree to differ; I have taken the same app...We will agree to differ; I have taken the same approach to all the wards I have reviewed. It is up to local politicians to decide what interpretation to place upon the results. <br />As for Offerton, it is much more in line with normal vote movement to suggest that Cllr Goddard lost votes to Labour at a greater rate than he managed to gain them from Conservatives. I do not doubt that some Tories may have switched to Labour but it is likely to be a small minority compared to those who would switch to the Lib Dems to keep Labour out.<br />To accept your argument one would need to fly in the face of all evidence to the contrary.<br />I haven't just 'done my sums', I have researched voting patterns for many years and demographic shifts seldom happen in a vacuum.<br />When it comes to Manor and Offerton, you have your view and you are welcome to share it, I happen to disagree.Catholic Left-wingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-87315742733875303512012-05-17T02:31:59.278-07:002012-05-17T02:31:59.278-07:00In terms of the percentages you've obviously d...In terms of the percentages you've obviously done your sums however your conclusion is muddled. On the one hand you say the Lib Vote has remained consistant while on the other your saying it is being proped up by a sucessful Tory squeeze its one or the other. Also while the Labour vote is the only one out of the two that has gone up over the last 2 years it is also the only one out of the two to have gone down numerically as well. Infact I think I''m right in saying the Liberal vote in Manor is the only one to have numerically gone up in Stockport compared with last year, which is significant in terms of what the mood amongst voters in that ward campared with other wards in the area. Also don't forget that the Leader of the Council could not hold on to his seat in Offerton which was safer than Manor and the Tory vote went down while the Libs stayed roughly the same and the Labour vote went up. This would indicate that tories in that area are more likey to turn Labour than Liberal. I think this illustrates the point that a more qualitative understanding of the McAuley factor is significant in any analysis of the Stockport election as it is not known what the feeling within the Labour Party was toward the candidate who by all accounts was not very supportive and even the Labour Leader claimed he got what he wanted on the night even with Derbyshires election and Offerton was a bonus. So my orginal point stands that a statistical interpretation of the results which leads to the Tory squeeze (which was also affected by national discontent) conclusion is more inductive than a the argument I put to you. Its not a defence of Cllr McAuley its a reasonable conclusion to reach with a more detailed look at the results.King Billy of Stockportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-45284790618841674442012-05-16T14:22:44.299-07:002012-05-16T14:22:44.299-07:0030.35% 34.66%
I didn't get my statistics from ...30.35% 34.66%<br />I didn't get my statistics from the Stockport Council website - what I have analysed are the votes cast and they are correct. The turnout in Manor fell from 34.66% last May to 30.65% this time and that accounts for the Labour vote share fall. <br />I agree that the turnout is consistent with a normal year but compared with 2008 only the Labour vote has risen.<br />I admire your defence of Councillor McAuley and I have no issue with that, but the evidence is as I present it and, from what you write, you agree.Catholic Left-wingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-52000317760391078452012-05-16T11:13:17.614-07:002012-05-16T11:13:17.614-07:00I'm affraid the stats do lie as on the Stockpo...I'm affraid the stats do lie as on the Stockport website it says turnout was up from last year. This is of course wrong, but I still contest your analysis that the McAuley factor had little impact for the following reasons. While turnout was down nationally in Stockport the Liberal vote in terms of numbers has remained relatively consistant over the last two years and actually in manor consistant outside of GE over the last few years. Hazel Grove, Bredbury Green and Romiley and Manor the variance was minimal. This is quite obviously down to working on a core vote quite successfully however Labour could not maintain the 200 votes that came out to vote the last time despite two very prominant media campaigns and a alot more campaigning over the year. Cheadle and Gately the Labour vote went down almost parallel to the Lib Dem vote. so simply putting this down simply to a national trend does not give sufficent attention to the local circumstances. While I agree it shifted few votes. I think it kept enough at home. An issue for Labour in the future when they contest the seat.King Billy of Stockportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-31045768017637930182012-05-14T13:54:11.624-07:002012-05-14T13:54:11.624-07:00I am a statician and stand by my analysis - the st...I am a statician and stand by my analysis - the stats never lie<br />Labour's vote share, on a reduced turnout, is nearly the same as last year. The Tory vote was squeezed. In my analysis, I congratulate Councillor Derbyshire on her campaign.<br />So, what is the issue? I still do not believe Cllr McAuley's situation shifted that many votes although, as I noted in my analysis, it may have been enough to swing the seat in such a close election. <br />You are welcome to your opinion which, to be honest, considerably mirrors mine - I agree that the Lib Dems have played Cllr McAuley's situation well and that their campaign was excellent...so, where is the bias? Oh, the margin was 24 votes, not 28.Catholic Left-wingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-82215884909542526752012-05-14T12:38:00.138-07:002012-05-14T12:38:00.138-07:00Your Manor analysis is bias to the extreme "s...Your Manor analysis is bias to the extreme "squeezing the Tory vote to keep Labour out" how is this quantifiable in a statistically significant way, thats right it isn't. Manor was won by 28 votes and the Labour vote was down by just over 200 from last year. I suspect Walter Barrett just couldn't get the support the way Laura Booth could illustrated by the Labour Leaders comments in the MEN that he got what he wanted and Offerton was a bonus. Why put up a candidate you don't support? From speaking to nieghbours I think Cllr McAuley is more respected than you give him credit for. It was a flawless campaign from the Lib Dems to win by the margin they did, skillfully using McAuley's situation to their advantage. Clearly Labour need to get better at strategy apparently people where campaigning in brinnington while they were losing Manor, I think this has more to do with it.King Billy of Stockportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-16495608064446883422012-05-11T09:31:13.041-07:002012-05-11T09:31:13.041-07:00I really hope we ditch the appalling LibDems in St...I really hope we ditch the appalling LibDems in Stockport soon. Goddard, Derbyshire, Weldon, Pantall, Bodsworth, Candler, Smith et al wanted to keep quiet the fact they were putting the school in North Reddish on unremediated toxic waste. They wanted to keep quiet about the circa £5 million financial anomaly and the circa quarter of a million one too. Don't trust them with your votes; don't trust them with your money and don't trust them with your children's lives eitherSheila Oliverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16016857853128805620noreply@blogger.com