tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17011923784386730892024-02-18T19:46:46.283-08:00CatholicLeftCatholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.comBlogger106125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-64927788481596279722019-05-22T12:13:00.000-07:002019-05-22T14:06:46.052-07:00Voting to challenge terrorists, and cloth-eared politicans.<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Today, we remember all those who were killed in the Manchester Arena bomb, and we do so with genuine sorrow mingled with pride at how we came together to oppose such horror and hatred.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> Tomorrow, we are invited to vote in an unexpected European Parliament election and many will do so to make a statement about where they stand on the big constitutional question of the day - party allegiances cast aside to make a statement, one way or another.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> It just seems a terrible shame tha</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">t we will have to do so by the party list system, which means we cannot list our preferences but will have to accept who the parties chose and the order in which they put them.<br style="display: inline; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;" /> The terrible conundrum is that the many good people who will make their voice heard for Leaving the EU and will vote for the Brexit Party will have no choice but to elect Claire Fox. It seems that in the rush to have inclusive lists of those of left and right, the Brexit Party hierarchy gave no thought to the fact that their North West list is headed by a woman whose party (now morphed into the "Institute for Ideas", which she runs) defended the Warrington bombing that killed two children and later attacked the IRA for signing the Good Friday Agreement which ended such violence.<br style="display: inline; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;" /> Democracy defeats terrorism, voting tomorrow, whichever way one decides to vote, shows a face of defiance to those who thought it was a good choice to kill children at a concert. It is just a crying shame that thought would not be given to the families of 12 year-old Tim Parry and 3-year old Johnathan Ball. 16 years later, on the anniversary of little Johnathan's death, his mother, Marie Comerford, died of a fatal heart attack. Claire Fox has never apologised for the stance she took and, because of this, one of the other Brexit Party list candidates, Sally Bate, resigned.<br style="display: inline; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;" /> On this day, we stand tall against terrorism and voting tomorrow will make a strong case for democracy. Nonetheless, it will feel really horrible on Sunday, when the counts begin, if the first name announced as elected is that of Claire Fox.</span><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-10152000693810854372019-01-31T02:24:00.000-08:002019-01-31T02:24:16.708-08:00Andrew Sullivan nails it.A brilliant reflection on the rwcent "Covington" controversy.<br />
<a href="http://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154892972792414&key=c1cdf22cfdb6719d2f056213f6dd4bd2&libId=jrkgfb1j0102rhh3000MAmhj9uflt&subId=3414711&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics%3Fpage%3D227&v=1&out=http%3A%2F%2Fnymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics&title=US%20Politics%20%7C%20Vote%20UK%20Forum&txt=nymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html">http://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154892972792414&key=c1cdf22cfdb6719d2f056213f6dd4bd2&libId=jrkgfb1j0102rhh3000MAmhj9uflt&subId=3414711&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics%3Fpage%3D227&v=1&out=http%3A%2F%2Fnymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics&title=US%20Politics%20%7C%20Vote%20UK%20Forum&txt=nymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html</a>Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-41044163904514024142018-06-01T12:53:00.000-07:002018-06-01T12:57:48.687-07:00Abortion and the Down's Syndrome person.A serious article; please read it to the end:<br />
<br />
<div>
http://thefederalist.com/2018/06/01/selective-abortion-of-down-syndrome-babies-is-an-absolute-moral-depravity/</div>
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-41300690619938320682017-11-16T06:21:00.001-08:002017-12-15T08:41:23.984-08:00An overview of the General Election results in South West England.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i>This is the fuller version of the edited section in The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2017, that I prepared for the marvellous Dr. Robert Waller.</i></div>
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The election in the South West of England was thought to be
one where, outside of a few pockets of (often declining) Labour support , the
battle for seats would be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats; as
with so much commentary concerning this election, this proved to be fairly off
the mark. From the old Hampshire redoubts of Bournemouth, up through Wiltshire
and down to the mineral mining village of Constantine in Cornwall, the
beginnings of a Labour revival not seen since the 1960s is the story of June
2017. Labour are now second in 32 constituencies, with Independent candidate,
Claire Wright, second in Devon East. It is hard to believe that the Liberal
Democrats have had MPs in 18 seats here.</div>
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There are 55 constituencies, covering the traditional counties
of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset (plus Bournemouth and Christchurch),
Wiltshire, and Gloucestershire.</div>
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Before the election, there were 51 Conservative MPs and 4
Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats having lost all 11 of their seats at the 2015
General Election. If there was to be a revival of fortunes for Mr. Farron’s
party, this was thought to be the place where it would be strongest.</div>
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In the event, they managed to regain only one seat, that of
Bath from the Conservatives. Labour held its 4 seats and gained 3 (Stroud,
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bristol North-West), while the Conservatives
continue to hold the vast majority of seats with 47 MPs, losing the 4
afore-mentioned seats.</div>
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So far so simple, but not really, as Labour did not only
hold their seats, 2 of which (Bristol West and East) were at some point during
the election campaign seen as at risk, but they piled on the votes to
significantly increase their majorities. Their vote share in Bristol West went
up a stunning 30.3% for the gloriously named <span class="results-tablebody-text">Thangam Debbonaire, to 65.9% and an unbelievable
47,213 votes (</span><span class="results-turnoutvalue">37,336 majority) on a
22.15% swing from Green to Labour, where the Green Party candidate’s challenge
saw them fall to third place. The former Lib Dem MP, Stephen Williams, saw his
vote fall from 18.9% to 7.3% into 4<sup>th</sup> place. The Conservatives’
Annabell Tell grabbed the runner-up slot on the basis of her vote share falling
the least. This constituency had seen a 12% increase in voter registration
since December of 2016, the 6<sup>th</sup> highest in the UK.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Bristol East, the
straight Labour-Tory fight saw the Tory vote rise a pleasing 3.7%, only for it
to be overshadowed by <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Labour’s Kerry
McCarthy’s vote share going up by a massive 21.5%, an 8.9% swing mainly due to
the 15.5% that UKIP had taken at the 2015 Election (with no candidate this
time) going to Ms McCarthy. A 60.5% share of the vote and a majority of 13,394
makes this old seat of Tony Benn and Stafford Cripps feel safe for the
foreseeable future.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Bristol South<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was very similar for Labour (60.1%, up 21.7%,
7.7% swing) over the Tories (30.7%, up 6.3%), with the Green, Lib Dem and UKIP
vote falls going mostly to Labour’s returned Karin Smith.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Bristol North West is
Labour’s gain in the city, and a serious disappointment for the Tories who will
have hoped that the fact that most of their local councillors are from this
ward and that former MP (2010-17) Charlotte Leslie had built up a healthy share
of the vote in 2015, made this a shoo-in against an apparently unpopular Labour
Party. Not so, with a swing of 9.15% to Labour’s Darren Jones, the losing candidate
in 2015, giving him a 4,761 majority. Ms Leslie has a higher share of the vote
than when she was first elected in 2010 and must have assumed that the UKIP
vote from 2015 was there for the taking but, as we shall see again and again,
this was not to the advantage of the Conservatives, and her share of the vote
fell by 2.1%</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">The outer Bristol seats of
Filton and Bradley Stoke (Labour up 15.1%), Kingswood (Labour up 9.9%) and
Somerset North (Labour up 12.3%), Somerset North East (Labour up 9.9%) showed
decent swings to Labour, but with the Conservative vote also rising, they were
never in any danger. Labour will be most disappointed in Kingswood not to have
done better in a seat held for them by Roger Berry from 1992 to 2010, but the
loss of the Bristol wards of Hillfields and Frome Vale at the pre-2010 boundary
changes has made it a very different seat and the Tory vote rose by 6.6%. It is
notable that Filton and Bradley Stoke (Con maj: 4,182 8.3%) is now a more
winnable seat for Labour than Kingswood (Con maj: 7,500 15.4%). Thornbury and
Yate, which, along with Filton and Bradley Stoke, replaced Northavon
constituency in 2010, was formerly a Liberal Democrat seat held by Steve Webb,
whose stint as a Pensions Minister in the Coalition government of 2010-15,
destroyed his political career. The Liberal Democrat’s Claire Young will have
hoped to close the gap but saw her party’s share of the vote fall further back
to 31.4%, losing 6.5%. Defending Conservative, 30-year old Luke Hall, will be
delighted and, I suspect, greatly surprised to find himself with 55.3% of the
vote and a 12,071 majority. A swing of 10.35% of the vote to him from 2015
will, no doubt, be a little due to the double incumbency effect: the effect of
the former MP not fighting the seat again plus the defending MP having first
term recognition. Labour’s Brian Mead will be pleased to take 12.1% of the vote
(+4.3%), whilst the Green’s Ian Hamilton took only 1.2% (-1.5%). UKIP did not
stand this time and their 10.6% of the vote may have gone largely to the
Conservatives, but it is difficult to tell, given the tactical unwind of the
past voting patterns. I assume a lot of voting churn. In Somerset North East,
media darling and middle-aged fogey, Jacob Rees-Mogg was comfortably returned
as Conservative MP with 53.6% of the vote (+3.9%), but doesn’t appear to have
been the main recipient of the UKIP’s not standing, and he suffered a 3% swing
to Labour. Still a longshot aim for Labour, he has a 10,235 majority.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">The only bright light for
the Liberal Democrats in the whole of the South West was their regain of Bath
from the Conservatives’ Ben Howlett, only 2 years after losing the seat. It was
a remarkable victory for former Rochdale Conservative councillor (later
Rochdale Liberal Democrat leader), German-born Wera Hobhouse, with a swing of 9.8%
from the Conservatives and 47.3% of the vote, up a remarkable 17.6% on 2015.
She was only selected at the beginning of May after the former candidate, Jay
Risbridger, stood down due to family and work commitments. This is a city that
was unhappy with the vote to leave the EU and saw a 9% increase in voter
registration, the tenth highest in the UK. If Brexit had an effect, this is one
of the seats where it was most pronounced against the government. Mr Howlett, a
staunch remainer, paid the price for Brexit but won’t have been helped by
unfounded allegations of sexual assault that had been made against him and
subsequently dropped; his vote fell to 35.8% (-2%). Labour will be pleased not
to have been squeezed, seeing a small increase in their share of the vote
(14.7% + 1.5%). The Greens saw their vote drop from 11.9% to 2.3%, going over
en masse to the Liberal Democrats in a tactical switch. UKIP did not stand, who
knows where their 6.2% went, although the turnout dropped here by 1.2%, so
maybe many stayed at home.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Gloucestershire, Labour
will be delighted and surprised with their regain of Stroud which, after a 7
year hiatus (otherwise known as Conservative MP, Neil Carmichael) sees the
return of David Drew, who had previously announced his retirement from politics
having failed to regain the seat in 2015. A seat that had seemed to be steadily
drifting away from Labour saw a 9.3% rise in share of the vote and 29,994 votes
received, up 7,047 since 2015; this is the single largest number of votes that
Mr Drew has ever received, even in 1997 when first elected. Mr Carmichael must
have thought that a slight vote rise (45.9% +0.2%) would have seen him through,
but he lost by 687 votes. This is an exceptional year with the Lib Dems (3.2%),
Greens (2.2%) and UKIP (1.6%) as deposit losing also-rans, their fall in vote
share mostly appearing to favour Mr Drew. This seat is still trending Tory,
which makes this result exceptionally good for Labour.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Cheltenham, the Liberal
Democrats put a lot of effort and achieved one of their rare large vote
increases, up 8.2% on 2015 giving former MP Martin Horwood 42.2% of the vote,
but it was not enough to catch the defending Conservative, Alex Chalk, from holding
the seat in the Conservative interest, with 46.7% of the vote (+0.5%), a
majority of 2,569, and a deep sense of relief. Labour’s Keith white will be
happy not to have been squeezed and to have seen his party’s vote rise by 2.2%
to 9.5%, while the Green candidate, Adam Van Coevorden, saw his party lose its
deposit (1.6%<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-3.4%). UKIP did not field
a candidate this time and it would be interesting to see a breakdown of where
their 7.1% vote went.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Tewkesbury saw Laurence
Robertson safely home (as Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Select
Committee, so interesting times ahead) with 60% (+5.5%) of the vote and a
stonking 35,448 votes, with the only other point of interest being Labour’s continuing
consolidation in second place, up 7% to 21.8%, reaffirming their dislodgement
of the Liberal Democrats as the main, if distant, challengers here. It is hard
to believe that the Liberal Democrats took 35.5% of the vote here in 2010,
slipping down to 13.5% this time after their vote collapsed in 2015. In The
Cotswolds, 25-year veteran Tory MP, Geoffrey Clinton-Brown saw a 4.1% increase
in his vote and he received a massive 36,201 votes. The addition of Minchampton
ward in 2010 made this more strongly Conservative, but this is nevertheless an
impressive result. The Liberal Democrats continue to fall back here with Andrew
Gant slipping into third place behind Labour’s Mark Huband, who saw the party
improve on their disastrous 4<sup>th</sup> place in 2015 to take 17.9% (+8.7%).
The UKIP fall in the vote (-8.9%) probably split evenly between the Tories and
Labour with the fall in the Liberal Democrat and Green votes largely going to
Labour.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In the constituencies of Gloucester
and Forest of Dean, Labour’s hopes of a return to winning ways fell short:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a vote share rise in the City (+8.6%),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was not enough to chase down the sitting
Conservative, Richard Graham, who saw a rise of 5% in his own vote, whilst in
the Forest, the massive rise in Labour’s vote share (+11.3%) still only put them
at 35.9%, a long way behind former Government Chief Whip Mark Harper, on 54.3%,
a big jump of 7.4%. Both seats saw a big fall in the UKIP vote, switching
mostly to Labour, although significantly to the Tories as well. These are the
sort of seats in which Labour should be closer if they are to win power again.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Wiltshire, the
Conservatives’ James Gray<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>held on
comfortably in North Wiltshire where they achieved a 0.5% swing to them from
the second-placed Liberal Democrats, now 22,398 behind, having had high hopes
in this seat back in 1997, 2001 and 2005 (indeed, Hugh Pym, Health Editor of
BBC News came within 3,787 votes in 2001). Mr Gray had a 60.3% share of the
vote (+3.1%), with the Lib Dems on 17.7% (+2.1%) and Labour breathing down
their necks with 17.5% (up 7.7% and their highest share of the vote in this
constituency, renamed from the old Chippenham seat in 1983, since 1970). This
seat was radically reorganised in 2010 and should have been worse for Labour,
so some achievement. UKIP’s vote collapsed (11.5% to 1.6%) and Labour appears
to have been the main beneficiary, whilst the Green and Independent candidates
lost their deposits. In Chippenham (the newly created constituency in 2010, not
the old one, which was renamed in 1983 as North Wiltshire), which includes the
market towns of Bradford-on-Avon and Melkaham, a turnout of 75.5% saw
Conservative Michelle Donelan achieve a 5.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats
to achieve a majority of 16,630. She was somewhat flattered by a split
opposition which, at this election, came only from the Liberal Democrats and
Labour, with UKIP and the Greens not putting up candidates this time. The
Liberal Democrat’s Helen Belcher must have hoped that the disastrous swing that
unseated the former Liberal Democrat incumbent, Duncan Hames, in 2015, would
have begun to unwind, but she saw her party’s vote fall by a further 3.8% to
25.6%, whilst Labour’s Andy Newman saw his previous vote grow from 4,561 to
11,236 (19.7% +11.4%), in only 2 years. Labour appears to have gained most from
the absence of a UKIP candidate at this election. Ms Donelan has come a long
way from the 15 year-old schoolgirl who gave a speech at the 1998 Conservative
conference – it didn’t do William Hague too much harm (well, that is
subjective…). Neighbouring South West Wiltshire saw another seat where the
Tories took 60% of the vote (+7.3%), with former minister Surgeon Commander
Andrew Murrison RNR being returned with a majority of 18,326, although he
suffered a swing against him to Labour’s Laura Pictor of 2.9%, who saw her
party’s share of the vote almost double to 26.5% (+13.1%), a share of the vote
not seen in this area since the old Westbury seat in October of 1974, with
Labour not having achieved second place since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, this
was an unmitigated disaster, with the party so long the main challengers in
this and previous seats, seeing their appalling 10.6% of the vote in 2015 fall
further to 9.8% this time. UKIP, who placed second in 2015, did not field a
candidate this time and the majority of their vote appears to have swung behind
Labour. The Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. Salisbury saw
Minister John Glen hold his seat with a reduced majority of 17,333, after a
swing of 3.85% to Labour’s Tom Corbin, but he will not lose too much sleep
after gaining 58.1% of the vote (+2.5%), whilst Mr Corbin will be thanking his
near namesake for helping his vote rise to 25.5% (+10.2%), Labour’s best result
here since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, total disaster: having been the main
challenger, if always the bridesmaid, for four decades, they slipped to 4<sup>th</sup>
in 2015 when their vote collapsed from 36.9% to 10.1%. The collapse of the UKIP
vote to 2.2% (-9.9%) seems to have favoured Labour the most, but the Liberal
Democrats made a small advance of 1.2%. Mr Corbin has a consolation prize of
having been elected to the City Council, along with his wife Caroline, on 4<sup>th</sup>
May. In neighbouring Devizes, Minister of State Claire Perry achieved 62.7% of
the vote (+5%), and a 21,136 vote majority over Labour’s Imtiyaz Shaikh, who
will be pleased to have put Labour in second place with an 8% rise to 21%. In
third place, Chris Coleman for the Liberal Democrats achieved a disappointing
9.3% (+1.2%): in a seat where Labour and the Liberal Democrats often tussled
for the claim to be main challenger, with the Lib Dems the usual victor, this
is very worrying for the party. UKIP saw their vote collapse, managing only
3.4% (-12%), with the Conservatives probably equally sharing their redistributed
vote with Labour, whilst Labour probably picked up the 2.6% drop in the Green
vote. The Green and Wessex Regionalist candidates lost their deposits.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">The Seats of Swindon North
and Swindon South are seats Labour need to be gaining if they are to be in
government and, again in this part of the South West, they failed to advance
enough. They came close in the South, with a swing of 3.45% putting them within
2,464 votes of regaining the seat they lost to Solicitor General Robert
Buckland in 2010. He will be delighted to be back with 48.4% of the vote
(+2.2%) whilst Labour’s Sarah Church will be able to console herself with an
increase of 8.1%, gaining the lion’s share of the UKIP vote collapse of 9.5%
and most of the Green drop of 2.1% (both candidates lost their deposits). Stan
Pajak for the Lib Dems managed only 4.1% (+0.4%). In the North, defending
Conservative, Justin Tomlinson, will be pleased to have held the seat with an
8,335 majority, down from 11,786 in 2015, and 53.6% of the vote (+3.3%). Labour’s
Mark Dempsey managed a 3.65% swing from the Tories, but that was mostly due to
the collapse in the UKIP vote (2.8% -12.5%) which saw his vote share this time
rising by 10.6% to 38.4%, gaining 6,587 more votes than when he stood in 2015.
Liberal Democrat flag-bearer, Liz Webster, managed a small increase in the vote
(+0.3%) but, along with UKIP’s Steve Halden and the Green’s Andy Bentley, she
lost her deposit. We see again that in urban seats the UKIP vote did not go to
the governing party, as many expected, but mostly to Labour.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">It is hard to believe that
Weston-Super-Mare was represented by the Liberal Democrat’s Brian Cotter from
1997 – 2005, and that they came only 2,691 votes from retaking the seat in
2010, because after the shattering collapse in their share of the vote in 2015,
dropping from 39.2% to 10.4% and fourth place, they continued to decline this
time, seeing their vote fall back to 9.2% for their candidate, Mike Bell. In
2015, Labour’s Tim Taylor snatched a narrow second place over UKIP (18.3% to
17.8%); this year, he nearly doubled the Labour share, gaining 32.7% (+14.4%)
and seeing the number of Labour votes rise from 9,594 to 18,438. Their highest
ever number of votes in this or it predecessor constituencies, and the highest
percentage of the vote achieved since a straight-fight with the Tories’ Sir Ian
Orr-Ewing in 1959. For returned MP, former minister John Penrose, he will be
pleased to see his vote rise 53.1% (+5.2%), although his majority fell from
15,609 to 11,544, as opposition support coalesced around Mr Taylor. UKIP saw
their vote fall to 3.4% (-14.4%), with the Green Party’s Suneil Basu taking
1.6% (-3.4%). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet again, Labour are the
main beneficiaries of the UKIP collapse.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In neighbouring Wells,
former Liberal Democrat MP, Tessa Munt, was widely believed to be in with a
fair chance of regaining the seat she held from 2010-15, having taken it from
long-term Conservative MP and former minister, David Heathcoat-Amory. In the
event, and despite increasing the party’s share of the vote to 37.6% (+4.9%),
she managed only a 0.45% swing from the Conservatives’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Major James Heappey, who held the seat with a
majority of 7,582, only 3 votes less than 2015. He managed to increase his
share of the vote to 50.1% (+4%), so will be feeling fairly satisfied. Labour
will be happy to have seen their vote rise to 11.7% (+5.1%) with the Christian
Peoples’ Alliance candidate, Lorna Corke, managing only 0.5%. UKIP, who came
third in 2015 with 9.9%, and the Green Party, who had 4.1% last time, did not stand
this time (the latter to help Ms Munt).</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Somerton and Frome used to
be part of the sea of Liberal Democrat yellow that made up this part of
Somerset, with David Heath representing the seat from 1997 until he stood down
in 2015, to be replaced in the yellow corner by former MP for Newbury, David
Rendel (who sadly died from cancer a year later). 2015 was a disaster for the
Liberal Democrats here, as in much of this region, and they saw their vote fall
from 47.5% to 19.4% (-28.1%), with the Conservative candidate, David Warburton,
gaining the seat with an enormous 18.3% swing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>By all accounts, a thoroughly decent bloke and former composer, Mr
Warburton was untroubled this time, achieving a further swing to him of 1.2%,
achieving a massive 22,906 majority, with 57% of the vote (+4%). Mark
Blackburn, for the Liberal Democrats, managed to slightly increase the party’s
share to 21% (+1.6%), but will be feeling the heat from the Labour Party, whose
candidate, Sean Dromgoole, managed to more than double the vote to 17.3%
(+10%). Theo Simon, for the Green Party, took 3.2% (-5.8%), whilst Independent,
Richard Hadwin, took 1.6%. UKIP, having placed third in 2015 with 10.7% of the
vote, did not stand this time, and much of their vote appears to have gone to
Labour.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Yeovil, former seat of
Liberal Democrat Leader, Paddy Ashdown, is another seat where the his party
fell back, rather than challenged, with sitting Tory MP, Marcus Fysh, re-elected
with a big rise in his party’s share of the vote<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to 54.5% (+12%), whilst Jo Roundell Greene
(Lib Dem), saw her party’s position slip back to 29.7% (-3.4%). Labour’s Ian
Martin took 12.5% (+5.4%) while the Greens’ Robert Wood took 1.8% (-2.1%), with
Independent candidate, Katy Pritchard, taking 1.5%. When coalition Government
Minister David Laws lost this seat for the Lib Dems in 2015, it was a big
shock, but they must have hoped for a bounce this time, so the party’s
continuing unravelling is a concern for them in this most heartland of seats,
which they had held since 1983. With UKIP not standing this time, their 13.4%
seems to have mostly favoured Mr Fysh.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Completing the stretch of
former Liberal Democrat-held seats in Somerset, Taunton Deane, with its
predecessor seat, Taunton, has swung from Conservative to Liberal Democrat for
20 years, with Jackie Ballard winning for the LDs in 1997 (2,443 majority),
losing it to Adrian Flook of the Conservatives in 2001 (235 majority), Jeremy
Browne regaining the seat for the LDs in 2005 (573 majority), then holding it
fairly comfortably in 2005 after boundary changes (3,993 majority), and then
the 2015 nightmare for the yellow camp, with a 16.8% swing to the Conservatives
candidate, Rebecca Pow, and Rachel Gilmour (replacing Jeremy Browne) seeing the
party’s vote fall to 21.3% (-27.7%). This time, there was something of a regrowth
for the Liberal Democrats to 27.7% (+6.3%), but only a marginal 0.75% swing
from the Conservatives. UKIP’s Alan Dimmick saw his party’s vote slump to 2.3%
(-9.7%), with the Green’s Clive Martin taking 1.8% (+2.7%). Whilst the latter’s
vote may have gone to help the Lib Dem representative, Gideon Amos, the UKIP
vote seems to have moved around a bit, with Labour seeing a significant rise to
15.4% (+6.1%).</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Bridgwater and West
Somerset is represented by Ian Liddell-Grainger, who replaced Tom King in
the old Bridgwater constituency (boundary changes in 2010) at the 2001 General
Election; now Baron King of Bridgwater, the former MP served in the Cabinet in
Departments of State, most notably in Defence. Mr Liddell-Grainger is the
great-great-great-grandson of Queen Victoria. He held this seat with a
share of 55.1% (+9.2%), whilst Labour local councillor Wes Hinckes achieved
28.6% (+11%). The town of Bridgwater itself has a long radical tradition with
James Scott, 1<sup>st</sup> Duke of Monmouth, proclaimed King on the Cornhill
in Bridgwater in 1685; as history attests, it didn’t go well for him or nine
locals. In 1785, it was the first town in Britain to petition the government to
ban slavery, and, in 1896, trade unionists in the brick and tile industry were
cleared by troops from the town after a number of strikes – the Riot Act was read
and barricades forcibly cleared. From 1938 – 45, the constituency was
represented by an Independent Progressive (and sometime Common Wealth) MP,
Vernon Bartlett. So, a Labour town, with a Conservative MP due to West Somerset
and outer Sedgemoor Council wards. The Liberal Democrats slipped back to 10.9%
(-1.6%), whilst<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Simon Smedley for UKIP, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>who were second in 2015, fell to fourth place
with 3.6% (-15.6%), with the vote splitting fairly evenly between Mr
Liddell-Grainger and Mr Hinckes, whilst some appears to have stayed at home,
this seat saw a drop of 2.3% in turnout. Kay Powell, for the Green Party, took
1.8% (-3%). A swing of 0.9% to Labour, a majority of 15,446.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Except for a shock
by-election gain by the Liberal Democrat Diana Maddock in 1993, which went back
to the Tories in 1997, Christchurch constituency has been safely Conservative
since its creation in 1983, the Tory vote share was 67.1% then, and is 69.6%
now (+11.5% since 2015). The major change is that Labour have replaced the
Liberal Democrats as the main challenger, with their candidate, Patrick
Canavan, taking 19.9% of vote (+10.3%), with the Liberal Democrats back a
distant third on 7.9% (+1.4%). Chris Rigby for the Green Party achieved 2.6%
(-1.7%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Christopher Chope, who gained
the seat in 1997, and previously spent 9 years as MP for Southampton Itchen,
will be delighted with his 25,171 majority. Surprisingly, UKIP did not defend
their second place and 21.5% share of the vote from 2015, and the vote appears
to have split fairly evenly between Mr Chope and Mr Canavan.</span></div>
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<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Among the “Slap your face
with your hand” results of the general election, were those in the two
Bournemouth divisions, where Labour managed to achieve their highest ever vote
shares of 35.6% (East) and 36.2% (West). In 2015, Labour lost its 3 seats on
the borough council, and the Conservatives took 52 out of 54, with only a Green
and Independent candidate holding off the blue tide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Bournemouth East, lecturer Dr Mel Sample
saw an 18.9% vote increase (17,284 votes, up from 7,448 in 2015), to finish
7,937 votes behind Foreign Office Minister, Tobias Ellwood, who took the
Conservative share of the vote up to 51.9% (+2.7%). The Liberal Democrats’ Jon
Nicholas came a long way back in third place with 6.5% (-1.9%), having been main
challengers since 1983, they regularly got around a third of the vote
here. UKIP’s David Hughes was unable to defend his 16.5% from 2015, falling to
2.9% (-13.6%), with his vote solidly going to Labour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Greens’ Alasdair Keddie took 2.5% (-4.7%), with
an Independent on 0.6%. A similar picture in Bournemouth West, where veteran
local Labour figure, David Stokes, saw his vote rise by 18.5% (16,101, from
7,386 in 2015), finishing 7,711 votes behind Conor Burns, Conservative MP
since 2010. Labour have usually been third in this seat since 1983 (although Mr
Stokes took second place in 2001) with a fairly strong vote as it includes the
Kinson wards which often elect Labour councillors, though in 2015 it was behind UKIP.
The Liberal Democrats Phil Dunn saw his party’s vote fall back again to 6.6%
(-1.3). UKIP put up no candidate this time, and the 18.5% they received in 2015
matches the rise in the Labour vote; however, given the drop in the Green vote
for their candidate, Simon Bull, more likely going to Labour, one can imagine
the 5.3% rise for Mr Burns (who took 53.5%), was largely from UKIP. The Pirate
Party’s Jason Halsey didn’t get much from the seaside with 0.9%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Next door Poole has the
distinction of the highest unemployment in the County of Dorset, with the
centre and north of the town being in the Index of Multiple Deprivation,
whilst the ward of Canford Cliffs has Sandbanks on the coastline with
multi-million pound properties. Oil extraction, insurance, care and retail
industries are based in the town, and it is a tourist rich area. So, no surprise
that Conservative MP, Robert Syms, was returned for the sixth time with 57.9%
of the vote (+16.6%). Whilst Labour don’t have any councillors in Poole, they
have often managed to poll quite strongly at General Elections, with local man, Peter Watt (briefly Labour Party General Secretary), taking second place in
2005. The surprise is that they came second this time with 29.4%, a huge rise
of 16.6% on 2015, with 14,679 votes up from 6,107, their highest share of the
vote since 1970, and highest number since 1983. After the disastrous collapse
in vote share in 2015 (a drop of 19.8%), the formerly strong Liberal Democrats
fell further from 2015 to 8.9% (-2.9%). UKIP did not defend their second place
from 2015, and their 16.8% seems to have split more for Labour, with the drop
in Green support to 2.6% (-2%) likely to favour them as well. A Demos Direct
Initiative candidate, Marty Caine (remember the late great comedienne?) taking
1.1%. A swing to Labour of 4.4%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Dorset Mid and Poole North
is a seat that had only the three man parties standing. Not much to see, except
to say it is another former Liberal Democrat seat that has slipped further from
their grasp: held by Annette Brooke from 2001-15 (rarely comfortably), Conservative
Michael Tomlinson gained it in 2015 with 11.2% swing. Any hope that Vikki Slade
(who defended the seat in 2015) had of regaining the seat seems forlorn, as her
vote slipped back slightly (-0.7%), whilst Mr Tomlinson saw his vote rise to
59.2% (+8.4%). Bringing up the rear in the red colours, Labour’s Steve Brew
will be happy to more than double his vote share to 13.3% (+7.4%). No Green
Party or UKIP candidates this time, with the latter’s 12.2% seemingly splitting
fairly evenly, whilst the former’s 2.8% probably went towards the Lib Dems and
Labour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Swing to Conservatives of 4.5%,
majority of 15,339.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In neighbouring Dorset
North, the main point of interest is that Labour candidate came second, for the
first time in the history of the party fighting this seat. Conservative Simon
Hoare successfully defended his seat with a massive 64.9% (+8.3%), Labour’s Pat
Osborne took their highest ever share of the vote with 18.6% (+9.7%), with the
Liberal Democrat’s Thomas Panton only managing to raise their historically low
share of the vote in 2015 to 13.6% (+1.9%), this in a seat the Liberal
Democrats were only 4.2% behind the Conservatives in 2005. The Green Party’s
John Tutton took 2.9% (-2.8), while UKIP did not defend the seat where they
came second in 2015, their 17.1% of the vote then apparently redistributing
fairly evenly between the top two. Swing of 0.7% from Conservative to Labour,
majority of 25,777.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">On the Jurassic Coast,
Dorset South was a Labour seat between 2001 and 2010, with Jim Knight (now Lord
Knight of Weymouth) going on to hold several government posts. The Labour vote is concentrated in the borough of Weymouth and Portland, but has been balanced
by wards from Purbeck district and Owermoigne ward from West Dorset. The seat
was made more Conservative by the addition of the gloriously named Creech
Barrow ward from Purbeck District and, with Labour slipping back against the
Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats in recent local elections, Richard
Drax, the Conservative MP since 2010, was never likely to feel under threat. He
took a very comfortable 56.1% of the vote (+7.2%), whilst Labour’s Tashi Warr
took 33.6% (+9.4%). For the Liberal Democrats, Howard Legg took 5.9% (-0.1%)
and Jon Orrell, for the Greens, took 4.4% (-0.3%). UKIP didn’t stand, with
their 15% last time seemingly splitting fairly evenly between the Tories and
Labour. A 1.1% swing from Tories to Labour, with an 11,695 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Along the Jurassic Coast in
Dorset West, long term MP and ex-minister, Oliver Letwin, took 55.5% of the
vote (+5.5%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Andy Canning runner-up with 23.5%
(+1.9%). Labour’s Lee Rhodes saw his party vote share go up to 18.3% (+8.3%),
their best since October, 1974, whilst Kelvin Clayton of the Green Party was the
only one to lose votes with 2.7% (-3%). UKIP did not defend their 12.5% from
2015, and Labour appears to have picked up a slight plurality of those votes. Hard
to believe that this was a very close seat for Mr Letwin, with the Liberal
Democrats pushing him hard in election after election. He will be very happy
with a majority of 19,091, with a swing to him from the Liberal Democrats of
1.7%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In North Devon, former
Armed Forces Minister Sir Nick Harvey’s hopes of regaining the seat he held for
the Liberal Democrats for 23 years, but lost in 2015, were dashed, despite a
closer result than in many former Liberal Democrat seat in the South West. He
saw his share of the vote go up to 38% (+8.6%), but failed to close the gap of
the re-elected Conservative, Peter Heaton –Jones, who managed to take 45.8%
(+3.1%). Sir Nick would have hoped to appeal to tactical Labour voters, but they
don’t seem tempted anymore and Mark Cann for Labour saw his vote this time go
up to 12.7% (+5.6%). In 2015, Steve Crowther, at the time of writing the
interim leader of UKIP, took 14.8% of the vote, but this fell precipitously to
2.1% (-12.6%) this time; it seems to have split in various directions. For the
Green Party, Ricky Knight took 1.4% (-4.4%). Swing of 2.75% to the Liberal Democrats,
majority of 4,332.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Devon West and Torridge is
another former Liberal Democrat seat, which elected John Burnett (now Baron
Burnett) in 1997, replacing Emma Nicholson who had defected from the
Conservatives in 1995 (now Baroness Nicholson, returning to the Conservative
fold in 2016). They held the seat until 2001, losing it to Geoffrey Cox QC, who
retained the seat this time for the Conservatives with 56.5% of the vote
(+5.7%), their highest share since the seat was created in 1983. For the
Liberal Democrats, David Chalmers was not able to retake the runner-up spot
lost to UKIP in 2015 (when the Lib Dem vote fell from 40.3% to 13.2%), only
increasing to 17.7% (+4.5%). In second place, and to the surprise over just
about everyone, was Labour’s Vince Barry, who saw the Labour vote rise to
12,926 (21.7% +11.1%) from 6,015. The Green candidate, Chris Jordan, saw his
party’s share of the vote fall to 2.7% (-4.2%) with an Independent taking 1.3%.
UKIP, as with most seats in this area, did not stand, and their 18.3% from 2015
appears to have substantially gone to the Labour Party. 2.7% swing to Labour,
20,686 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Tiverton and Honiton has
been comfortably Conservative since a relatively close shave for former MP,
Angela Browning, in 1997, when she held off a Liberal Democrat challenge by
1,653 votes. Since 2010, Neil Parish has been the Conservative MP, and his main
challenger is now the Labour Party whose candidate, Caroline Kolek, took 27.1%
of the vote (+14.4%. As Mr Parish had 61.4% of the vote (+7.4%), he won’t be too
worried. The formerly strong Liberal Democrats continued to fall back from
their collapse in 2015, falling to only 8% of the vote (-2.4%), with the
Green’s Gill Westcott taking 3.5% (-2.8%). UKIP, second in 2015, did not field
a candidate, and their 16.5% seems to have gone mainly to Labour. Swing to
Labour of 3.5%, 19,801 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Devon East, to the east of
Exeter and with a shoreline of the Jurassic Coast, including the towns of Exmouth,
Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Cranbrook and Ottery St. Mary, created in 1987
and reorganised in 2010, had one of the most fascinating contests of the 2017
General Elections, with former minister Sir Hugo Swire, the local Conservative
MP since 2001, facing a real challenge from Independent local councillor,
Claire Wright, who received a lot of publicity and backing. Councillor Wright
took 24% of the vote from nowhere in 2015, and was seen as the one person who
might dislodge the incumbent knight. She made a good fist of it, increasing her
vote to 21,270 (up by 8,130) and taking 35.2% of the vote (+11.2%). Sir Hugo
managed to increase his share of the vote to 48.5% (+2.1%), whilst Labour’s Jan
Ross increased the party’s vote to 11.4% (+1.1%). The Liberal Democrats,
formerly the main challengers, were supplanted last time by Cllr Wright, and
they declined to a stunning 2.4% of the vote (-4.4%, -28.8% since 2010). UKIP
fell to 2% (-10.5%) and two other Independent candidates managed 0.4% of the
vote between them. The UKIP vote seems to have solidly swung behind the anti-establishment
figure of Claire Wright. There was a 4.55% swing to Cllr Craig, with Sir Hugo’s
majority falling to 8,036.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Devon Central was created
as a new constituency in 2010, when the number of Devon seats increased from 11
to 12. Estimated to be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal, it has been
held by the Conservative’s Mel Stride since 2010. In 2015, the Liberal
Democrats fell to fourth place with 12.2% of the vote (-22.2), this time they
were third with only 11.7% (-0.5%). The Green Party’s Andy Williamson, who had
a decent 4,866 votes (8.9%) in 2015, saw it slip to 1,531 (2.6%) this time;
UKIP fell from second to fifth place with 2.3% (-10.9%), with Labour’s Lisa
Robillard Webb seeing a doubling of the party’s vote to 27% (+14.1%). National
Health Action’s John Dean took 1.5% with the Liberal Party’s Lloyd Knight
taking 0.8%. Mr Stride took 54.1% and a 15,680 majority. There was a swing to
Labour of 6.5%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Exeter‘s MP, Ben Bradshaw,
has represented this seat in the Labour interest since 1997, but I doubt he thought would ever have such a large majority: the University town produced a swing to
him of 7.9% with a vote share of 62% (+15.6%), and procuring an extra 9,274
votes to reach 34,336. The Conservative candidate, James Taghdissian, held his
party’s vote share at 32.9% (-0.2%), but the absence of UKIP (-9.4%), and with the
Liberal Democrat’s Vanessa Newcombe managing only 2.8% (-1.5%), and Joe Levy
for the Greens receiving 1.9% (-4.6%) the former BBC journalist swept up most
of the redistributed votes (with some inevitable churn) and the increased
turnout (up 1.5%). Two Independents took 0.5% of the vote between them. Hard to
believe that this ancient constituency has only once been represented by a
Labour MP in the past: Gwyneth Dunwoody in the 1966 parliament. Majority:
16,117 votes. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Newton Abbot, created in
2010 to cover Teignmouth, Dawlish, Newton Abbot and the environs, was created
from the former Teignmouth seat held by the Liberal Democrat MP, Richard
Younger-Ross, from 2001 to 2010. It was seen as a gain by the Conservatives’
Anne Marie-Morris in 2010 and Richard Younger-Ross’s attempt to regain the seat
in 2015 saw his vote drop to 23.9% (-18.1%). This time, the Liberal Democrat’s
standard-bearer, Marie Chadwick, fell into third place with 20.5% (-3.4%), with
James Osben taking the Labour Party up to second place for the first time, more
than doubling the party’s vote share to 22.2% (+12.4%). The Green’s Kathryn
Driscoll took 1.8% (-2.8%), with UKIP not defending their 13.9%. Ms Morris saw
her vote share raise to 55.5% (+8.2%), with a 17,160 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Torbay, another former
Liberal Democrat seat represented by Adrian Saunders from 1997 (gained by only 2 votes from
Rupert Allason (otherwise known under the pen name of Nigel West) to 2015, this
was a seat that the Liberal Democrats had hopes of retaking, but it was a tough
ask with a new candidate and the Conservative MP Kevin Foster defending his
short incumbency. Mr Foster returned with a greatly increased share of the vote
(53% +12.4%). Deborah Brewer for the Liberal Democrats only took 25.1% of the
vote (-8.7%), whilst Labour more than doubled their share to 18.2% (+9.5%). As
is the common picture in this election, Anthony McIntyre saw his UKIP vote
collapse to 2.4% (-11.2%), with the Green Party’s Sam Moss taking 1.3%
(-0.2%). A significant turnout increase of 4.4%, it is hard to say for certain
where the redistributed and new votes went, without more detailed analysis.
Swing to Conservatives of 10.55%, majority of 14,283 votes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Held for the Conservatives
by the independent-minded former GP, Sarah Woolaston, since 2010, Totnes was
almost gained by the Liberal Democrats in 2005, but their vote collapsed in
2015 and they came bottom of the poll with 9.9% (-25.7%), with their votes
spreading fairly evenly out to the other four candidates (Con, UKIP, Lab,
Green). This time, their candidate, Julian Brazil, has managed to increase his
share of the vote to 12.9% (+3%), and moved into third place. For Labour,
Gerrie Messer has fairly strongly, if somewhat surprisingly for this seat,
moved into second place with 26.8% of the vote (+14.1%). Jacqui Hodgson for the
Greens took 4.2% (-6.1%) and UKIP’s Steve Harvey gained 2.5% (-11.7%). With the
Conservative vote only rising marginally to 53.7% (+0.7%), and with the turnout
increasing by 4.5%, the opposition to the sitting MP swung firmly behind
Labour; if this stays the case in the future, the Liberal Democrats will have
serious problems. Swing to Labour: 6.7%, Majority: 13,477.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Devon South West has been
represented by Gary Streeter since 1997, formerly MP for Plymouth Sutton (1992
-97), when it was created. He has always been fairly safe and his 59.9% (+3.3%)
will do him nicely. In the past Labour and the Liberal Democrats have swapped
second and third place, but Labour are clearly second now with Philippa Davey
taking 29.9% (+13.3%), the Liberal Democrat’s Caroline Voaden fell back to
5.2%(-2.3%). UKIP’s Ian Ross gained 2.9% (-11.6%) and the Green’s Win Scutt
received 2.1% (-2.7). UKIP’s vote largely went to Labour as, I assume, did the
former Liberal Democrat and Green votes. 4.9% swing to Labour, majority of
15,816.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Plymouth Moor View, the
UKIP vote fell by 17.4% and swung heavily to the Conservative’s defending MP,
Johnny Mercer, whose vote increased to 51.9% (+14.3%). In second place, Labour
will be disappointed to have failed to retake the seat they only lost in 2015
by 1,026. Sue Dann managed to take the Labour vote up to 40.8% (+5.6%), but it
appears that former military man, Mr Mercer, has gained from incumbency and the
fact that the former Labour MP, Alison Seabeck, did not stand this time. Graham Reed
for the Liberal Democrats managed only 2% (-0.9%), with Josh Pope for the
Greens taking 1.2% (-1.2%). Swing to the Conservatives: 4.3%, 5,019 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">In Plymouth Sutton and
Devonport, it was a different story from the northern neighbour, with Labour’s
Luke Pollard taking the seat from Conservative incumbent, Oliver Colvile, who
had held the seat since gaining it from former Labour MP, Linda Gilroy, in
2010. When the seat was first announced, the council’s returning officer hadn’t
included all wards, to add to a nightmare to do with not registering votes in
time for the election. In the end, the correct result showed Mr Pollard taking
53.3% of the vote (+16.6%), Mr Colvile taking 40% (+2.2%), Richard Ellison for
UKIP down to 2.7% (-11.4%), the liberal Democrat’s Henrietta Bewley taking 2.4%
(-1.8%), the Green Party’s Dan Sheaff taking 2.4% (-5.9%) and an Independent
with 0.5%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UKIP votes, unlike in the
northern neighbour, swung heavily behind Mr Pollard. A swing of 7.2% to Labour
and a 6,807 majority.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="results-turnoutvalue">Cornwall was a fascinating
election story, with the Duchy returning 6 Conservative MPs again, but with
Labour becoming the main challengers in 4 of the seats (up from 1 in 2015). It
is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats recently dominated Westminster
politics here (all of the constituencies in 2005) as Labour saw massive
increases in the Labour share of the vote in Truro and Falmouth (up 22.5% to
37.7%), St. Austell and Newquay (up 18.8% to 29%), Camborne and Redruth (up
19.3% to 44.2%) and Cornwall South East (up 13.3% to 22.6%). The Liberal
Democrats only remain contenders in North Cornwall and St. Ives, in the first of which former
MP Daniel Rogerson (2005-2015) increased his vote to 36.6% (+5.3%), but still
lost to Scott Mann who took 50.7% (+5.8%) and has a majority of 7,200.
Labour managed to increase its vote share to a reputable (for this seat), 12.1%
(+6.6%). In St. Ives, Andrew George, Liberal Democrat MP for 18 years, came
within 312 votes of retaking the seat from Derek Thomas, with a swing of 2.3%.
Christopher Drew, Labour candidate, in a rare three header, took 14.2% (+4.9%).
Labour’s vote in Penzance has become very strong and it seems to have cost Mr
George his chance to retake the seat, which Mr Drew might also regret. The
failure of UKIP to field candidates in what was one of its most established
power-bases and where they had recently had success in the 2013 Unitary Council
Elections (all lost since in resignations and election defeats) was illuminating.. They only
fielded one candidate, in Truro and Falmouth, garnering only 1.6% of the vote
(-10%). The Green Party seems to have stood back in this election in a form of
“Progressive Alliance” solidarity, fielding only three candidates (Truro and
Falmouth, Cornwall South East and Camborne and Redruth). Mebyon Kernow, the
local Cornish party, decided not to stand after the recent Unitary Council
Elections due to lack of resources. It has been a conundrum for a long time as
to why an area of such relative deprivation, such as Cornwall, has not been
more successful for Labour, well, that may now have changed for future
elections, where they will be looking to squeeze further the Liberal Democrats
to overcome the 1,577 Conservative majority of George Eustice in Camborne and
Redruth (LD: 6.1% -6.3%) and the 3,792 majority of Sarah Newton in Truro and
Falmouth (LD 14.9% - 1.9%). In the latter, the local press reported that
tactical voting to keep out the Tories should go to the Lib Dem’s Rob Nolan.
Maybe this cost Labour a famous victory. One anecdote for Cornwall, where
Labour’s membership increased dramatically in the last two years, which has had
a galvanising effect in some areas, on the day of the election it was tweeted
: “The main roads in Penryn are full of Labour posters”, If you know Penryn,
that was a major sign of political times a’changing.</span></div>
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Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-7035875168141859432017-11-08T13:47:00.001-08:002017-11-08T13:47:56.924-08:00He raises his head above the parapet, and nobody notices.Dear Reader,<div>
<br /><div>
I haven't posted in quite a while, despite the remarkable election results, lots of interesting political incidents, football and, well, football. So much going on in the religious arena too.</div>
<div>
What can I say? I have been ludicrously busy but also distracted.</div>
<div>
Well, I have done a review of the election results in the South West of England which I will, when I can find it, post on here. </div>
<div>
I wish you all well.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-46379157394614631962017-05-27T04:29:00.000-07:002017-05-27T04:34:20.575-07:00A reflection on the Manchester Arena attack.Jeremy Corbyn made some salient points in his speech, but it is all somewhat beside the point: whilst
intervention in the Umaah is used as a reason for faux outrage by many
extremists (faux, in the sense that the purpose of their terrorist
attacks and militaty incursions in Muslim countries is to invite war),
the reality of what drives/encourages/manipulates these young men to
their actions is complex and, on the whole, fed by the belief that they
have been treated as the underdog, cast-aside, used (pick your adjective
or noun). In joining a group who consider themselves elite and
everybody else as "kāfir", they are able to to feed their own sense of
entitlement, bolster their idea of personal heroism, thus allowing them
to bully, threaten, cheat and deceive with impunity. Many of these
people are more than willing to play the victim if it gives them a
weapon with which to beat the authorities/establishment/the man/the
police (take your pick), but they are amused and dismissive of those who
give in to them in this way.<br />
Prisons are are an interesting example
of how they work - they gain control by demanding their rights, shouting
"racist", putting in complaints, harassing and ridiculing the Muslim
Chaplains, refusing to allow female officers to search their persons or
their pads, trying to claim religious exemptions from statutory
requirements. The Muslim gang is brought together by being a mix of
muscle and religious doctrine. On each wing, one prisoner will be seen
as a teacher and other prisoners (often very vulnerable) will be brought
to them for religious instruction, often fed by extremist literature
that has been smuggled into the prison -in some cases, books donated by a
Muslim charity will be of an extremist nature that nobody bothered to
properly check (although this has improved). On the wings, Muslim
prisoners set up an almost parallel community and, if they see a threat
in the form of another gang, will seek to absorb it or, if that fails,
try to crush it by using violence, often by assaults in the workshops,
during movements, in education, gym, etc., with prisoners from another
wing used to commit the assaults. <br />
If a prisoner has been forced onto
the "numbers", they will then invite them to reapply for the main wing
if they are willing to convert. Prisoners who have self-evidently never
been Muslims in their lives argue vociferously with staff that they are
Muslim, get the Muslim Chaplain down to make their shahada, and get
themselves back on the wings. Then, they are told that, to be properly
accepted after being with the "nonces", they have to assault a member of
staff or another prisoner. <br />
Young men with no strong sense of
personal worth are incorporated into a powerful group who, against all
evidence to the contrary, profess themselves to be the most oppressed
group of people in the prison estate and the wider country, feeding a
victim mentality which can lead to these young men becoming very
dangerous, accepting no moral prerogative beyond that laid down for them
by the group. Their morality is a mix of violent criminality and
religious extremism fed by particular hadiths and fatwas, some of the
latter declared by self-appointed teachers within the prisoner
population.<br />
Now, quite often, when a prisoner moves to another prison
outside of the High Security Estate, he will quickly rediscover his
non-Muslim roots and avoid all reference to their past, and they will
truly be delighted to be out of the madness. Others will be moved and
remain Muslim, perhaps having found a faith that gives them a discipline
they need but learn to move away from the very warped version of it fed
to them when they first converted. Others will move and remain angry,
belligerent and violent. Others will move and be quiet but manipulative,
continuing to follow the doctrine they were fed. <br />
Trust me - Prevent
is a costly waste of time, effort and money - it is about as effective
as the Sex Offender Treatment Programme that so many resouces have been
poured into, and does not work.<br />
Most people look at prisons and think
that Muslim gangs are just a issue for black prisoners, they are wrong
and ignore the fact that the vast majority of Afro-Caribbean prisoners
who go to prison for long sentences are of a Christian background, but
convert quite quickly (sometimes for a sense of identity, sometimes for
political reasons, sometimes under pressure). More and more prisoners of
White British backgrounds are also converting, for similar reasons and a
significant minority of these are becoming radicalised. Whilst lots
will eventually move on and leave prison and forget their choices in
prison, some will hold onto them and bring a lot of violent attitudes
into our communities and onto our streets. <br />
Yesterday, I visited the
scene of the bombing, only being allowed as close as the police cordon
near Chetham's School, and saw the casual nature of police officers
holding semi-automatic rifles. I went to the shrine in St. Ann's Square
which, while surrounded by film crews and edging towards the mawkish,
still had the capacity to move. Seeing young people in leg bandages from
the night make their respects is truly affecting. People were
constantly asking "How could anybody target children?" <br />
Well
gentlemen, I think the answer, in an admittedly different setting for
the killer, lies in much that I have observed from the many years I
spent working in the High Security Estate: he could target children
because they counted as nothing compared to the rigid sense of morality
that he had been fed.<br />
The other thing that bothered me last night, as
I stood in St. Ann's Square, was that none of the journalists are
actually asking the right questions, and that makes me bloody angry. The
politicians are not willing to deal with issues and, as I found with
those at the top in the Prison Service (or NOMS, as it was called for a
time), refuse to listen to those who try to tell them what is happening
as it does not fit into their political world-view, and then run around
asking themselves how to prevent radicalisation and the murder of the
innocent.<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: medium none; color: black; overflow: hidden; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;">
<br />
Read more: <a href="http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10168/incident-manchester?page=20#ixzz4iHFpaYaA" style="color: #003399;">http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10168/incident-manchester?page=20#ixzz4iHFpaYaA</a></div>
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-90694670209006075362016-06-23T10:29:00.001-07:002016-06-23T10:29:34.923-07:00I can't stand referendums, but make sure you vote in this one.So people are out voting in the most significant referendum in 40 years: whether we stay a member of the European Union, or whether we go it alone.<br />
I voted earlier today and the turnout had not been particularly high - only thirty people in 2 1/2 hours. I think that things have become busier though as the day has gone on. I have been underwhelmed by the campaign, which has only seemed to warm up in the past ten days.<br />
The horrific murder of Jo Cox, MP for Batley and Spen, caused a terrible break in the debate and seemed to bring a pause and much-needed reflection amongst campaigners. Sadly, some of the nastiness has not been long in returning to the world of social media and the language of "traitor" and "fascist"has quickly returned.<br />
Whatever your view on leaving or remaining, Nigel Farage's standing in front of a banner purporting to warn against the large number of migrants breathlessly rushing our shores, which actually recorded the horror of Syrians fleeing slaughter, was a real low.<br />
So, vote. Whatever the result, still love each other.<br />
If you are not sure what to do, then stick with the status quo: massive upheavals should never be due to uncertainties.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-27122238902949987752016-04-07T10:19:00.000-07:002016-04-07T10:22:20.305-07:00Camille Paglia throws down a gauntlet.I am no fan of Ms Paglia, and do not endorse her views, but she always approaches the politics of feminism from a radical and unique perspective. This latest article is no different:<br />
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/07/camille_paglia_feminists_have_abortion_wrong_trump_and_hillary_miscues_highlight_a_frozen_national_debate/<br />
I disgree with her views on abortion, but am fascinated by how her mind works.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-6847527629040497952015-12-27T07:07:00.001-08:002015-12-27T07:08:52.581-08:00Yes, Christians in the Middle East face genocide, so call it that.Today, I was watching the BBC news with two guest newspaper reviewers. They discussed a report suggesting that IS were commiting genocide against Christians. The two reviewers expressed discomfort with the idea that Christians were getting a special me tion and said that IS were "equal opportunity oppressors" They also said that genocide was an inappropriate term.<br />
For Heaven's sake, BBC paper reviewers, yes, IS are slaughtering all kinds of groups, but the targeting of the ancient Christian communities in Iraq and Syria is genocide, as it is targeting an ancient ethnic group for destruction - what will be left of the ancient Assyrian civilisation when IS are finished? Genocide is not just the slaughter of a people, it is the attempt to wipe out evidence of their history and existence, so look at the destruction of the ancient shrines, the tomb of Jonah in Iraq, the destruction of the relics in Mosul, the attacks on Palmyra, the destruction of the oldest monasteries of Christianity as well as all Churches that come into their path.<br />
They are trying to wipe out all signs of the ancient Christians of the Middle East and create a Year Zero. That is the very essence of genocide.<br />
So a couple of BBC reviewers say they "feel uncomfortable" when the Christians are singled out for special mention and that genocide is an inappropriate word. Well boo-f#@king-hoo, you self-satisfied liberal softies; I suggest you use your superior intellect to do some study rather than confirming your preconceptions through chatting with your colleagues over a glass of Sancerre, spa water or a skinny soya latte.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-76392345812259279172015-12-09T08:09:00.000-08:002015-12-09T08:09:17.961-08:00Tyson Fury and the hypocritical reaction to him.Muhammed Ali professed some vile racist views, which he has never totally withdrawn, and he is described, because of his sporting prowess, as "The Greatest."<br />
Mike Tyson is a convicted rapist, who we laud for his one man show and love his cameo appearances in films, and, because of his sporting prowess, he is seen as the greatest since Ali.<br />
We put it down to their difficult backgrounds, upbringing and the racism they have faced<br />
Tyson Fury holds three of the Heavyweight belts; he has said some illiberal things and so a petition is demanding he not be able to be on the Sports Personality of The Year shortlist. Important politicians have weighed in as well to make the same demand.<br />
He isn't racist or a rapist.<br />
Apparently, being from an difficult background and facing prejudice doesn't count if you are Traveller.<br />
I don't agree with what he said, but I am sick of the bloody hypocrisy. If you don't like him, don't vote for him to be Sports' Personality of the year.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-60478803684758755152015-12-09T01:18:00.001-08:002017-12-27T14:15:30.202-08:00Thank you for the prayers.My sister, Paula, is npw cancer-free. Thank you all so much for your prayers.<br />
I didn't have much heart for blogging.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-71855268870782840222014-12-16T11:44:00.000-08:002014-12-16T11:44:29.179-08:00Prayers please.Would you please keep my sister, Paula, in your prayers, as she has just been diagnosed with lung cancer and will be having most of one lung removed in the New Year. After this, they will decide what next steps may be necessary.<br />
Please also keep her husband, Stuart, and daughter, Becky, in your prayers, in what is a very difficult time for everyone, not least my mother, who has already buried three of her children.<br />
Please offer Mass, light a candle, pray a decade of the Rosary, ask for the intercession of St. Peregrine, or whatever else you feel may help.<br />
Thank you.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-8901433240989081292014-06-22T05:49:00.001-07:002014-06-22T06:03:08.849-07:00The Tuam septic tank story continues to crumble.Of some interest, I hope, to those who have been baffled by the whole "Nuns and septic tank story":<br />
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/kathyschiffer/2014/06/associated-press-apologizes-for-its-coverage-of-the-irish-orphanage-story/#<br />
This has never been true, will the major press sites now retract their claims and will all those people who have made dishonest hay out of this admit they have, at the very least, jumped the gun a bit?<br />
The interesting part reads:<br />
<br />
DUBLIN (AP) — In stories published June 3 and June 8 about young children buried in unmarked graves after dying at a former Irish orphanage for the children of unwed mothers, The Associated Press incorrectly reported that the children had not received Roman Catholic baptisms; documents show that many children at the orphanage were baptized. The AP also incorrectly reported that Catholic teaching at the time was to deny baptism and Christian burial to the children of unwed mothers; although that may have occurred in practice at times it was not church teaching. In addition, in the June 3 story, the AP quoted a researcher who said she believed that most of the remains of children who died there were interred in a disused septic tank; the researcher has since clarified that without excavation and forensic analysis it is impossible to know how many sets of remains the tank contains, if any. The June 3 story also contained an incorrect reference to the year that the orphanage opened; it was 1925, not 1926.<br />
<br />
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-51978342443121542142014-06-12T02:32:00.002-07:002014-06-12T02:32:56.647-07:00The true story continues to emerge.....Another response to the "Babies in Septic Tank" story. This whole sorry saga and the lack of any sort of media standards in reporting it is shameful, if unsurprising.<br />
<br />
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-tuam-tank-another-myth-about-evil-ireland/15140#.U5lX3Ja9LCRCatholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-37827249328970867552014-06-11T07:36:00.002-07:002014-06-11T07:52:14.983-07:00The Nuns, the children's home and the septic tank.Across the world, aided by social media, a story has been hitting the headlines and been hyped in the most bizarre and unbelievable ways.<br />
If you believe what is being said, 796 babies' bodies were buried in a septic tank in the grounds of a home for unmarried mothers by the Bon Secours sister who ran the home in Tuam, County Galway, Eire, between 1925 and 1961. You will also believe that these children's deaths are suspicious. <br />
I agree that it is appalling the way that unmarried mothers were treated and the terrible ways in which their children were treated by the wider community, let alone within homes, is a deep shame. Does this mean we are to believe that these nuns were a group of mass murderers?<br />
I ask it as starkly as that because I have been fairly stunned by what I have read - one person asked me whether I would be changing the Catholic part of my moniker in the light of "the burial in a septic tank without Christian ceremony of 796 children of unmarried mothers who died of neglect while supposedly in the care of the Catholic Church in Ireland." This was the first I had heard of this story and I declined to comment without more knowledge.<br />
I then saw a comment of Facebook by someone saying he would "punch a nun in the face" if he saw one due to this story and then, what has lead me to post today, is that a respected Cornish politician tweeted the headline "Nuns and mass murder, still getting my head around this crime against humanity". <br />
Because of this, I finally joined twitter today and tweeted her the foregoing article by a respected journalist which has been in the public domain for a few days but seems not to have stemmed the tide of hyperbole, disinformation and hysteria. It makes clear that the bodies of 796 babies were not found in a septic tank, it reveals that the deaths were all registered by the home - which is how the figure of 796 was reached, due to the death certificates issued - and that as shocking as the number of deaths is, it was not so unexpected in a crowded home in the west of Ireland at that time. It is an awful and depressing tale, but it is not Rwanda and is not just to those who have worked to make sure that the children are remembered.<br />
I urge others to read it, share it, tweet it, explain it - this is not a defence of the way that we treated umarried mothers and their children, it is a plea for truth and request that we stop buying into media inspired hysteria.<br />
<br />
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/tuam-mother-and-baby-home-the-trouble-with-the-septic-tank-story-1.1823393<br />
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-91662954911545450842014-05-21T08:03:00.000-07:002014-05-21T08:03:11.143-07:00Stockport Council Elections, 22nd May 2014So, tomorrow is Local and Eurpean election day, and I usually give an overview and make predictions for Stockport council. So, late in the day, here we go:<br />
<br />
After the last elections in 2012, the Liberal Democrat group remain in minority control with 29 councillors out of 63 - they maintain control due to the policy of the three-member Heald Green Independent Ratepayers Group to support the largest party. Keen-eyed observers will notice that the Liberal Democrats had only 28 councillors after the last round of elections but have been strengthened by the defection to them of Councillor Pat McAuley, who was elected for Labour in Manor in 2011 but who quickly left the group to sit as a People Matter councillor. His defection was not too surprising as he supported the present Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire, in her re-election bid in 2012 (see below).<br />
<br />
The last time these seats were fought was 2010, at the same time as the General Election, so with a significantly larger turnout than normal. As ever, given the fact that there are three councillors in each seat, we can take the 2011 and 2012 results as a guide.<br />
<br />
The Liberal Democrats are defending 12 seats from 2010, Labour are defending 5 seats, the Conservatives 3 and the Heald Green Independent Ratepayers defend their 1 seat.<br />
<br />
In 2010, the Liberal Democrats took 40.8%% of the vote across the borough, Conservatives took 30.3%, Labour took 22.1%, Independent R/P 2.4%, BNP 2.3%, Green 1.6%, UKIP 0.3% and Independents 0.2%.<br />
<br />
Last year, Labour took 33.4%, Conservative, 25.3%, Lib Dems 31.0%, Ind R/P 3.0%, UKIP 3.2%, Green 2.0%, BNP 1.8% and Independents& Liberal Party 0.2%.<br />
<br />
The Lib Dems won 10 wards last time, Labour won 8, Conservatives 2 and Ind R/P 1. <br />
<br />
If Labour simply holds its own after last year, they will gain 3 seats (2 from Lib Dem and 1 from the Conservatives), the Lib Dems will lose 2 (both to Labour) and the Conservatives will lose 1.<br />
<br />
However, as ever, things are never that simple and with the European Parliamentary (EP) elections occurring on the same day (hence the delay of the local elections by a fortnight) with UKIP having a strong showing in the polls for the EP elections, will that have a knock-on effect locally - or will it serve the major parties who are fighting hard with more established election teams and who might get their vote out better for the EP elections? Local issues and local personalities will effect each ward battle and there will be surprises, as ever. Democracy is a wonderful thing and, when it a local election, differential turnout is crucial - those who can target their supporters and get them to the polls (or postbox) will win the day.<br />
<br />
UKIP have 16 candidates up this year, failing to nominate in Stepping Hill ward and the old Lancashire wards of Heatons North, Heatons South, North Reddish and South Reddish. <br />
<br />
As with all of my overviews and predictions, I will look at the seats I believe are in play and I invite views on the outcome of the local elections in each or all of them.<br />
<br />
<strong>Labour target seats:</strong><br />
<br />
<strong><em>Davenport and Cale Green</em></strong><br />
<br />
This is an interesting ward which had swung heavily to the Liberal Democrats in the years since the boundary changes and all out elections in 2004. It has had a significant Conservative vote from the Davenport end of the ward which been somewhat squeezed over the years. Cale Green is a much more working class area with a traditional Labour vote that had moved significantly to the Liberal Democrats. In 2004 with the creation of the present ward, all three Labour Councillors who had represented the old Davenport seat were defeated by the Lib Dem councillors of the old Cale Green seat. Two of the Liberal Democrat Councillors, Roy Driver and David White, defected to Labour over Coalition policies, but neither chose to defend the seat with Cllr White standing down this year. <br />
In 2011 and 2012, Labour gained the seat from the Liberal Democrats, with Ann Smith losing her seat last time.<br />
<br />
In 2010, the Lib Dems managed to hold the seat quite comfortably, taking 39.4% of the vote to Labour's 32.7%, despite the bigger turnout which one would expect to favour Labour so it was quite a shock to see the scale of the turnaround in 2011 where there was a 19% swing from the Lib Dems to Labour between 2007 and 2011. The Lib Dem vote falling to 21.2% and the Labour vote rising to 54%. The Conservative vote was 15.7%, Green 8.3%.<br />
<br />
The defections of Lib Dem councillors Roy Driver and David White to (eventually) Labour undoubtedly had an effect on the result but the Coalition government where the Liberal Democrats joined with the Conservatives nationally won't have gone down well with the voters of Cale Green, even without the unpopular decisions made by the national government last year. Benefit changes for the unemployed and those in rented accommodation have not been popular in this area and it'll be interesting to see if signs of economic recovery have reached the voters of this ward. David White is not defending his seat for Labour so this year sees the return of Ann Smith, who lost her seat in 2012, as the Liberal Democrat candidate (so, technically defending the seat) and Elise Wilson standing for Labour. For the Conservatives, experienced candidate Julie Wragg will be hoping to avoid repeating the heavy squeeze on the Tory vote experienced in 2012. Phil Shaw returns as the Green candidate for his fourth bite of the cherry in this ward, whilst UKIP is fielding Doreen Hopkins; UKIP last had a candidate here in 2007 when they came fifth with only 3.1% of the vote. They should poll better this time.<br />
<br />
Ann Smith is a popular lady and she will put up a strong fight in what is an open seat this year, but I still feel that this is Labour's to lose. I will predict a fairly narrow Labour victory here, with UKIP's share of the vote perhaps playing a crucial role.<br />
<br />
<b>Labour Gain.<br />
</b><br />
In 2010 (2012) the ward results were:<br />
<br />
Liberal Democrat David White 2,453 39.4% (38.0%)<br />
Labour Co-op Brian Hendley 2,032 32.7% (45.9%)<br />
Conservative Beryl Charlesworth 1,321 21.2% (8.6%)<br />
Green Phil Shaw 415 6.7% (6.3%)<br />
(Liberal 1.1%)<br />
<br />
Majority 421 6.7 <br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Doreen Hopkins (UKIP), Phil Shaw (Green), Ann Smith (Lib Dem), Elise Wilson (Lab), Julie Wragg (Con).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Manor ward </em></strong><br />
<br />
Manor is on the edge of the political dividing line of Stockport, sandwiched between normally Labour voting North and Central Stockport and the normally Lib Dem redoubts of Eastern and Southern Stockport (Bredbury, Offerton, Stepping Hill, Marple, etc) and it is in this sort of seat that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are fighting toe-to-toe. <br />
<br />
The Liberal Democrats were safely ensconced in this ward for many years with the nearest they came to losing a seat being in the all-out elections of 2004 when Labour's Brigitte Lechner came within 97 votes of taking the last seat from the Lib Dems' David Robert-Jones, comfortably out-polling the other Labour candidates by 500 votes. She was subsequently Labour's candidate in the 2006/7/8 campaigns but was swimming against the tide of an unpopular Labour government and a popular Lib Dem Council. <br />
<br />
In 2010, the Lib Dems still managed a comfortable 575 (9%) majority over Labour on the increased General Election turnout.<br />
<br />
This changed in 2011's local elections when Patrick McAuley gained for Labour with their vote rising by 12% since 2010 whilst the Lib Dem vote only fell by 4.9% since 2010. There seems to have been some tactical voting by Conservatives to save the Lib Dem councillor but disillusionment as I have described above will have effected the voters. There was a 12.515% swing from the LDs to Labour between 2007 and 2011, the Lib Dem vote falling 7.87% and the Labour vote rising by 17.16%. The Con vote rose by 0.72%, the BNP vote fell by 7.01% and the Independent by 3.1%.<br />
<br />
As I noted above, Councillor McAuley has now joined the Liberal Democrats as I had predicted he would in 2012. The results last time showed, on a reduced turnout, the Labour vote share (not votes cast) remaining remarkably steady at 43.6% (just 0.4% down on 2011) but a formidable campaign by sitting Councillor Sue Derbyshire saw the Liberal Democrat vote share rise by 8% for her to hold onto her seat from Labour's Walter Barrett by a nerve-jangling 24 votes. A drop in the Conservative vote share of 7.5% will surely count for much of this and it was a masterfully executed squeeze by the Liberal Democrats. <br />
<br />
Councillor Daniel Hawthorne is defending his seat this year, having first been elected in the 2010 election. Returning as Labour candidate, after losing so narrowly last time, is Walter Barrett, who will hope to be a tad luckier this year. For the Conservatives, Beverley Oliver will hope to avoid the heavy squeeze that was suffered in 2012 but I think she will be struggling, not least because of the appearance of a UKIP candidate, in the shape of John Kelly. There is no ward history for UKIP so it is all a bit up in the air as to how they will do. One candidate who will be unhappy with UKIP's appearance will be Duncan Warner of the BNP who has stood at every election since 2004 (when he snatched second place from the Tories); Mr Warner's vote share has fallen since 2010 and many of his supporters will have been disillusioned Labour voters. BNP's recent travails and the appearance of a more respectable form of protest in UKIP, added to the squeeze coming from the two front-runners, could lead to Mr Warner's worst result (one would be devastated if this proved to be true.....).<br />
I am not sure how to call this one, it is going to be a close run one again I would guess, and I am tempted to make a prediction but...........<br />
<br />
<b>Too close to call.<br />
</b><br />
2010 (2012)<br />
<br />
Liberal Democrat Daniel Hawthorne 2,605 40.9% (44.3%)<br />
Labour Paul Moss 2,030 31.9% (43.6%)<br />
Conservative Alex Raisbeck 1,269 19.9% (7.4%)<br />
BNP Duncan Warner 464 13.8 (7.3%)<br />
<br />
Majority 575 9.0% <br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Walter Barrett (Lab), Daniel Hawthorne (Lib Dem), John Kelly (UKIP), Beverley Oliver (Con), Duncan Warner (BNP).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Offerton</em></strong><br />
<br />
Offerton is in the Hazel Grove constituency, located in the centre of Stockport borough, between Marple, Bredbury and Manor wards. <br />
<br />
Offerton offered the big news of the 2012 elections, when the Liberal Democrat Leader of the Council, Councillor Dave Goddard, was beaten by Labour's Laura Booth after a fairly stormy campaign. This year, due to the decision of sitting councillor John Smith (elected as Liberal Democrat but defected to the Conservatives) to retire, it is likely to be a straight fight again between returning Lib Dem Mr Goddard and Labour's Charlie Stewart. Labour took the seat last time with a nail-bitingly close majority of 45, but proving that they can win here will mean that the seat is likely to be heavily-targeted again by Labour. In 2010, the Liberal Democrat candidate won comfortably with 49% of the vote, the Conservatives took 23.7%, Labour 18.5% and the BNP 8.8%.<br />
<br />
Labour has risen from the political grave in this ward (it is hard to believe that they came fourth behind the BNP in 2008 with less than 10% of the vote) and it will be the aim of Mr Goddard to squeeze the Conservative vote and, as with the other parties, discourage Liberal Democrat voters from toying with a vote for UKIP as a form of national protest. This may have been helped by the suspension by the national party of returning UKIP candidate, Harry Perry, who proves yet again that some people shouldn't be allowed near a twitter account. For the Conservatives, Bill Law will be hoping to build up the party's vote share and avoid being squeezed out of the race. It would be interesting to know how Councillor Smith might have fared if he had chosen to defend the seat as a Tory candidate but I suspect he would have been pushed out by Labour and the Lib Dems.<br />
<br />
As mentioned already, UKIP's Harry Perry returns for a third shot at the seat, but his 10% of the vote is unlikely to rise much due to the two-way battle and his own problems with his party. Mind you, voters make a habit of voting in maverick ways, so who knows?<br />
<br />
Last year, Laura Booth had a history in the seat and was standing for the third time, this may serve to put Labour's candidate, Charlie Stewart, at a disadvantage but he has been a public campaigner so should be fairly well known. Mr Goddard has a very high-profile, which can work for or against a person.<br />
<br />
I am sure Labour and the Liberal Democrats will fight hard here and it is a very tough one to call, but with Labour proving it can win and thus showing those who have voted tactically for the Liberal Democrat's in the past that a Labour vote is not a wasted one, Labour's vote might rise. Having said that, the Liberal Democrats will be targeting the Conservative vote very hard. This could be very close again and I will not make a prediction.<br />
<br />
<b>Too close to call.<br />
</b><br />
<br />
2010 (2012)<br />
Liberal Democrat John Smith 3,173 49.0% (35.6%)<br />
Conservative Julie Wragg 1,536 23.7% (18.1%)<br />
Labour Laura Booth 1,199 18.5% (36.8%)<br />
BNP Stephen Maher 573 8.8% ( - )<br />
(UKIP 9.5%%)<br />
Majority 1,637 25.3% (1.2%) <br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Charlie Stewart (Lab), Dave Goddard (Lib Dem), Harry Perry (UKIP), Bill Law (Con).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Heatons North</em></strong><br />
<br />
This covers what was formerly a very safe Conservative seat taking in Heaton Moor and parts of Heaton Mersey. Labour only began to gain the seat (or its predecessor seat of Heaton Moor) in 1994 when the then Conservative government was limping from crisis to crisis. From the year 2000, the Conservatives started to win the seat back and, by 2004, the seat was safely Conservative again and remained so even with the high turnout in the General Election when Councillor O'Neill held on by 284 votes (3.9%) and this was partly due to the unusually high vote for the Lib Dems, possibly boosted by the 7% student population voting in favour of the 'no student loans' pledge of the Lib Dem manifesto. This is one of the few seats in Stockport where the battle is directly between Labour and the Conservatives with the Lib Dems as also-rans. This was one of the crucial factors with the collapse of the GE Lib Dem vote to normally low figures and the huge rise in the Labour vote. In 2012, Labour's David Sedgwick comfortably gained the ward from the Conservatives with a 360 majority, confirming the swing back to Labour in this ward since 2010.<br />
<br />
The candidate hoping to make it a hat-trick of victories for Labour in this ward is John Taylor, who will be facing Rosalind Lloyd for the Conservatives after the retirement of Anthony O'Neill of a fairly longstanding family of Conservative councillors and aldermen. I wonder if Ms Lloyd is related to the former Conservative councillor and Councillor leader, John Lloyd, who used to represent this area? Actually, I think she is related to Councillor Syd Lloyd in Bredbury Green and Romiley. <br />
<br />
For the Greens, we see the return of Janet Cuff, who has stood regularly in this ward (and in the old Heaton Moor ward), with a couple of years off here and there. Her best result was 10.2% in 2004 and she obviously has some following.<br />
This is one of the wards where there is no UKIP candidate.<br />
<br />
<b>Labour Gain.<br />
</b><br />
2008 (2012)<br />
Conservative Les Jones 2,069 52.9 (38.9%)<br />
Labour Margaret Pollard 1,000 25.6 (47.9%)<br />
Liberal Democrat Kevin Dowling 358 9.1 (4.1%)<br />
Green Janet Cuff 336 8.6 (9.1%)<br />
UKIP Gerald Price 150 3.8 ( - )<br />
Majority 1,069 27.3 <br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Janet Cuff (Green), Rosalind Lloyd (Con), Jenny Humphreys (Lib Dem), John Taylor (Lab).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Bredbury and Woodley </em></strong><br />
<br />
Former Davenport and Cale Green Lib Dem councillor Roy Driver (defected back to Labour, see above), came remarkably close to winning this ward in 2012 and he is back again to take the battle to his former Liberal Democrat colleague, defending Councillor Chris Gordon.<br />
<br />
From the 2008 nadir for Labour of 9.5%, Mr Driver gained 35.6% of the vote last time and the Liberal Democrat's Christine Corris only held on by 181 votes. The long-time Liberal Democrat councillor, Stella Humphries, had retired so her personal vote will have gone but Labour had made solid progress in this seat in 2009 and this year should be very interesting. The question is whether the Conservatives can bounce back from their very low 14.5% in 2012 or will they continue to be squeezed in a tightening two-horse race between Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Conservative candidate Sue Howard has a tough fight on her hands.<br />
<br />
UKIP are fielding a candidate this time with Richard Ellis flying their flag, one can only guess at the effect this will have as they have not had a candidate in this ward before. It is possible that it may boost turnout amongst those who wish to make a positive vote for the party and who might normally stay at home. Who they will take votes from is difficult to tell, although a recent study continues to show that most votes tend to come from the Conservatives. The BNP again field Andy Webster, who polled 8.7% of the vote in 2012; I suspect his vote will fall this year.<br />
<br />
Last year I said that if Mr Driver stood again, he would win this seat; now I am not quite so confident as Mr Gordon has been around for a lot of years and will have a strong personal vote. Political circumstances change and it'll be interesting to see how UKIP's entrance into the race plays out. If anybody could gain this seat for Labour, it is Mr Driver but it'll be one tough battle. I expect that a lot of party workers will be working this ward very hard and the ground game will be important. <br />
<br />
<b>Too close to call.<br />
</b><br />
2010 (2012): <br />
Liberal Democrat Christopher Gordon 4,009 59.3% (41.2%%)<br />
Conservative Rosalind Lloyd 1,723 25.5% (14.5%)<br />
Labour Clifford Stanway 1,025 15.2% (35.6%)<br />
(BNP 8.7%)<br />
Majority 2,786 33.8% (5.6%) <br />
Full Candidate List: Roy Driver (Lab), Richard Ellis (UKIP), Chris Gordon (Lib Dem), Sue Howard (Con), Andy Webster (BNP).<br />
<br />
<strong>Conservative Target seats</strong><br />
<br />
<em><strong>Hazel Grove</strong></em><br />
<br />
This was a very close run battle last year and the Liberal Democrat's victory by 68 votes over the Conservatives was a sign of how much this seat has come into play over the last couple of election cycles. It had been a real shock when the Conservatives gained this formerly reliable Liberal Democrat ward in 2011, and much of this can be attributed to Labour's rising vote share due to a tactical unwind because of the national Coalition. Last time, the Conservatives, on a smaller turnout, managed to increase their share of the vote but with the Labour share dropping slightly and a much more prepared Lib Dem campaign, the Lib Dems managed to hold on. <br />
<br />
This year, the three main parties are joined by UKIP's Tony Moore; the party last stood a candidate in the ward in 2011 and achieved 6.7% of the vote. Will it do much better this time? The make up of the ward suggests not, but we shall see. Also joining the fray is the Green Party's Rob Turner, who will doubtless be not receiving a warm welcome from defending Lib Dem councillor, Stuart Corris.<br />
<br />
Councillor Corris has been around a long time and I would guess this is the toughest bettle he has fought. The Conservatives are certainly re-invigorated in this ward and they have always managed to maintain a solid share of the vote. The Tories' 2011 victor, William Wragg, is their PPC for the constituency and he would surely like to gain a second seat here. <br />
<br />
The big questions - will UKIP's entrance cause damage to the Conservative hopes this year; will Labour still manage a solid high teen's share of the vote thus undermining Mr Corris's hopes; will the Greens make any impact on the race?<br />
<br />
Undoutedly a key marginal in the battle for control of the council, and of the Tory hopes of re-establishing themselve as a major party of local government in Stockport, this will be a really testing battle for Cllr Corris. It is possible that the anger with the Coalition has dissipated somewhat and Labour voters may again be tempted to vote tactically to keep the Conservatives out, but it is not a certainty and where the UKIP vote comes from will be the main issue, I suspect.<br />
<br />
The Conservatives are again fielding Oliver Johnstone, who came so close last year, and that should help them present a familiar face to the electorate.<br />
<br />
On balance, and because of UKIP being more likely to take Tory votes, especially on a EP election day, I predict a Liberal Democrat hold here and Councillor Corris will heave a huge sigh of relief, but it should still be relatively close.<br />
<br />
<b>Lib Dem hold (just).<br />
</b><br />
<br />
2010 (2012):<br />
<br />
Stuart Corris LD 3,777 51.3% (42.1%)<br />
William Wragg C 2,697 36.7% (40.4%%)<br />
Karen Vickers Lab 884 12.0% (17.5%)<br />
<br />
Maj: 1,080 14.6% (1.7%)<br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Stuart Corris (Lib Dem), Oliver Johnstone (Con), Janet Elizabeth Glover (Lab), Tony Moore (UKIP), Rob Turner (Green).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Bredbury Green and Romiley</em></strong><br />
<br />
This is a classic Lib Dem/Con marginal, and has often been won by very small majorities since 2006. In 2012. I thought that the Tories would grab this ward, following their success in 2011 but, as with other results, the collapse in their post-Budget support only began to show close to the election and the Liberals comfortably held on in 2012. Surprisingly, Labour's votes share, which had been at its highest in many a year in 2011 at 20.3%, actually rose slightly to 20.4%, so it wasn't a case of Labour voters returning to tactical anti-Tory voting. With a much reduced turnout, I would surmise that the Liberal Democrats were much better at the GOTV operation and many Tories stayed at home.<br />
<br />
Nonetheless, going from a 658 majority in 2011 to a 262 loss in 2012 was a heck turnaround. The Conservatives have certainly targeted this ward and, as with Hazel Grove, really need to be using this ward as a base to rebuild their party machine and increase the size of their group on the Council. <br />
<br />
Lib Dem candidate Councillor Mags Kirkham is completing her first term, having just snatched the ward on a general election turnout in 2010 from Cllr Syd Lloyd (regained a seat in 2011), and will be determined to continue the success of last year. With the Conservatives not as toxic as they were a couple of years ago, she will be aiming to squeeze the Labour vote to win.<br />
<br />
For the Conservatives, Sally Bennett returns as candidate and, with the experience of last time, will doubtless have a better GOTV plan. She has a real chance here and will doubtless be fairly confident in an area which has swung from Liberal Democrat to Conservative (normally in the shape of Syd Lloyd) over the electoral cycles.<br />
<br />
Keen to avoid being squeezed, Labour's Brian Wild will be looking to again advance the party's vote share to closer to 25%, but I think he will have a tough job on his hands.<br />
<br />
The BNP again field Tony Dean, who is likely to suffer at the presence of another anti-politics candidate in the shape of UKIP's Brian Stanyer. I am interested to see how UKIP do here as there is no history to help us speculate.<br />
<br />
This will be a close call but I will just give it to the Liberal Democrats.<br />
<br />
<b>Lib Dem hold.<br />
</b><br />
<br />
2010 (2012):<br />
<br />
Mags Kirkham LD 3,123 44.3% (41.1%)<br />
Syd Lloyd C 2979 42.3% (34.4%)<br />
David Sedgwick Lab 945 13.4% (20.4%)<br />
(BNP 4.1%)<br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Sally Bennett (Con), Tony Dean (BNP), Mags Kirkham (Lib Dem), Brian Stanyer (UKIP), Brian Wild (Lab).<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Cheadle and Gatley</em></strong><br />
<br />
Cheadle and Gatley was a disappointment for the Conservatives in 2012, with the loss of Mick Jones's seat to the Liberal Democrat candidate, Keith Holloway. The ward now has three Liberal Democrat councillors and, with the defending candidate this year being Councillor Iain Roberts, I really don't see much changing for the Tories.<br />
<br />
As long as the Liberal Democrats can keep over 40% of the vote, they seem safe to hold on here and they will be looking to do considerably better than that and will doubtless be looking at the Labour vote which has grown to over 20% in the last two electoral cycles. In the past, Labour voters have lent their support to the Liberal Democrats to keep the Tories out, but that has become less of a temptation since the formation of the Coalition government. For Labour, long-time candidate Colin Owen will certainly be aiming to hold onto and, if possible, continue to improve the vote share, but it is likely to be difficult although, given his high visibility as a regular candidate (every election since 2004), he will have some confidence.<br />
<br />
For the Conservatives, Graham Haslam is facing an uphill battle, not helped by the appearance of a UKIP candidate. To win here, the Conservatives would normally need to be achieving a 40%+ vote share, and this is unlikely as the larger number of candidates is likely to effect the three major parties.<br />
<br />
UKIP have Graham Bradbury standing for them and, with the EP elections on the same day, will hope to pick up a decent vote share. I would think this is not the kind of ward where UKIP would do too well, but they don't have to do brilliantly to have an effect on the wider result.<br />
<br />
Also likely to be a bit of a spoiler, Natasha Brooks for the Green Party is also hoping to make her mark. Whether her presence damages the Liberal Democrats or Labour more than others remains to be seen, but I can't see her doing too well. The last time a candidate stod in this area was in 2002, under the old boundaries, and he only managed to accrue 152 votes (3.6%).<br />
I cannot see Councillor Roberts losing here.<br />
<br />
<b>Lib Dem hold<br />
</b><br />
2008 (2011):<br />
<br />
Iain Roberts LD 4332 53.2% (42.5%)<br />
Adam Calmonson Con 2964 36.4% (37.1%)<br />
Colin Owen Lab 848 10.4% (20.4%)<br />
<br />
Full Candidate List: Graham Bradbury (UKIP), Natasha Brooks (Green),Graham Haslam (Con), Colin Owen (Lab), Iain Roberts (Lib Dem).<br />
<br />
So - my predictions? <br />
<br />
<strong>Labour to gain:</strong><br />
<br />
<strong><em>Davenport & Cale Green</em></strong><br />
<strong><em>Heatons North</em></strong><br />
<br />
<b>Too close to call between Labour and the Liberal Democrats:<br />
</b><br />
<b><i>Bredbury and Woodley<br />
Manor<br />
Offerton</i></b><br />
<br />
<b>Ones to watch between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats:<br />
</b><br />
<strong><em>Bredbury Green and Romiley</em></strong><br />
<strong><em>Cheadle and Gatley</em></strong><br />
<strong><em>Hazel Grove</em></strong><br />
<br />
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-77496102097587687382014-05-16T14:40:00.001-07:002014-05-16T17:49:02.858-07:00Portsmouth Council Elections, 2014.It is that time again when I need to dip my toe into the waters of Portsmouth electoral politics and to try and give an idea of what might happen this year at the local elections on 22nd May.<br />
Portsmouth, along with neighbouring Eastleigh, has managed to buck the electoral trend since the formation of the Coalition government and not just see the Liberal Democrats hold onto control of the council but to increase their majority.<br />
The story of the last two electoral cycles is that of a formidable Lib Dem party machine which has managed to effectively target seats, even when, as in 2011, they have slipped into second place in terms of votes cast. Once very competitive in local government in Portsmouth, Labour slipped into the doldrums towards the end of the Labour government, managing to garner only 13.4% of the vote and no seats in 2008, their worst result ever. For the Conservatives, they have managed to poll well in local elections, but still have been pushed back by the Liberal Democrats where they have been targeted.<br />
Last time, Labour had high hopes of making significant progess in the city, but whilst they managed to increase their share of the city-wide vote from 25.9% in 2011 to 27.1% in 2012, they only took two wards out of the 14 up for election. Much of this was due to the fact that their vote, whilst it rose in several wards, slipped back a little in the ones that they were targeting as the Liberal Democrats responded to the challenge, even coming from a distant third place to snatch the Cosham ward, which Labour should have gained. <br />
The story of 2012 was the big rise in the Liberal Democrat vote, with a 4.85% swing from the Conservatives to them compared to 2011.<br />
For an overview of the wards, I point you in the direction of my former post for the 2012 elections: http://catholicleft.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/portsmouth-local-elections-overview-and.html. Sorry if it is a bit lazy, but I am overwhelmed with work.<br />
This time, UKIP and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) are standing candidates in all 14 wards. To add some interest, the European Parliament (EP) elections are taking place on the same day.<br />
<br />
<b>The seats I believe are of interest:-<br />
</b><br />
<b>Central Southsea<br />
</b><br />
Once a Conservative/Labour marginal, the Liberal Democrats shot up from 3rd to 1st place in 2004 and then battled with the Conservatives with Labour pushed into position of distant also-rans, struggling to maintain 3rd place over the Green Party. Since the general election, Labour has rebuilt themselves as the main challengers to the Liberal Democrats, but this has come at the same time as the Conservative vote has heavily fallen back (they lost their last seat here in 2010) and appears to have swung behind the Liberal Democrats. Having successfully picked up the former Labour anti-Tory vote in the past, the Lib Dems have now picked up the former Tory anti-Labour vote. <br />
Labour has campaigned hard in this seat, but saw their vote slip back from 27.9% in 2011 to 25.7% last time, probably not helped by the intervention of the Green Party (who did not stand in 2011 and TUSC). For Labour, they really should be aiming to get around 30% of the vote here and appealing to left-of-centre voters who seem attracted by the Green Party (who got a decent 9.6% in 2012) and TUSC (5.4%) candidates, both of whom have candidates again this year.<br />
The unknown factor in this election is how well that UKIP will do with their candidate, Derek Wareham. There is no history of them in this ward and one can only speculate at the effect that he will have. I would guess that the Conservatives' returning candidate, Kevin Chippindall-Higgin, will be less than delighted at his entrance, but no party feels too safe this year where UKIP is concerned as they appear to be riding a not particularly ideological anti-politics wave.<br />
The Liberal Democrats should be safely home here, but Labour really should be closing the gap.<br />
<br />
Liberal Democrat hold.<br />
<br />
<b>Charles Dickens<br />
</b><br />
I predicted a Labour gain here last time, and was not alone in doing so, therefore I was a bit surpised not just by Labour's failure to gain the seat, but that they slipped back in terms of vote share from 32.1% to 31.7%. The big rise in the Lib Dem vote (36.3% to 46.1%) seems to be at the expense of the Tories, who were squeezed down from 22.5% in 2011 to 11.4% in 2012. Also, the Green candidate and TUSC candidates managed to take 10.7% of the vote between them, nonetheless, when Labour were only 125 votes behind in the ward the question has to be asked: why could the party not have successfully attract voters from the Liberal Democrats in the face of an unpopular coalition government in an area badly effected by the welfare changes - one of the poorest in Southern England outside of London? This time, long-serving Liberal Democrat councillor Jacqui Hancock is defending the seat and, especially given the very divided opposition, will be confident of being returned for another term.<br />
For Labour, Sion Reynolds is hoping to once again reduce the deficit and take the seat, but will do so with the TUSC candidate Paul Smith figting for the left-wing vote. TUSC only managed to take 3.8% of the vote in 2012 but, with the absence of a Green candidate (quite surprising, given that they usually have a candidate and the EP elections are on), they might hope to raise their vote.<br />
For the Conservatives, Shaun Rogers will hope to push back against the squeeze and raise the vote share again but will be hindered by the entrance of UKIP's Paul Godier.<br />
Of course, with UKIP, we just don't know how much damage they will do to the different parties nor do we know how they will effect turnout among those who might not normally vote.<br />
There is also a Justice and Anti-Corruption Party candidate, Jason Packer, who, given that they are only standing candidates here and in Fratton ward, seem to be targeting the Hancocks.<br />
Labour really should be winning in seats like this if they are to be taken seriously as a party of the poorest in society and I am aware that they have been campaigning hard in the ward over the past couple of years. Despite believing they would take the seat in 2012, I believe it will be beyond them this time unless the disparate candidates create vote patterns that seem a little unlikely.<br />
<br />
Liberal Democrat hold.<br />
<br />
<b>Copnor<br />
</b><br />
Usually a fairly safe Conservative ward with a usually divided centre-left opposition, Copnor has been most marked by being a place that produced a surpringly high vote share for the English Democrats Party and its regular candidate, David Knight (17.3% in 2007), who stood in 5 elections in a row until 2011. This changed in 2012 when long-standing Conservative councillor Malcolm Hey fell out with his party and stood as an Independent. I had thought that this might lead to the Liberal Democrat candidate (and former councillor for Milton) Alex Bentley, snatching the seat. In the end, the Conservatives held on with a greatly reduced share of the vote (32.3% from 38.3% in 2012), over a very divided opposition.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, great disappointment last time when they must have hoped that the fallout with Mr Hey would have reduced the Tory vote enough for them to take the seat, the problem was that their own vote fell back sharply from 29.9% in 2011 to only 21% in 2012.<br />
This year the Conservative candidate is Jonathan Kemp, who replaces long-serving Councillor Michael Park. In the absence of Mr Hey splitting the vote, "Copnor Community Campaigner" Mr Kemp will hope to be comfortably home this year. <br />
Looking to undermine this in the Labour interest is nurse and expectant mum Sam Jones; in 2012, it was Labour who reclaimed the silver medal in this race, but with only 22.5% of the vote, down from the 23.6% they got in third place in 2011. Labour used to take a solid mid-thirties share of the vote in this area and will be seeking to re-establish themselves as the main challengers.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, roofer Steve Fletcher will be wanting to spread the good news about the improvement in the general economy brought about by the national coalition as a way to garner votes and try to at least regain second spot after 2012's surprise slippage.<br />
The TUSC are again fielding a candidate, Ben Norman, and will hope to improve on 2012's 5.1%.<br />
UKIP are, as ever, the fly in the ointment as we have no real way of telling how they will do here - will they attract a chunk of the 19% garner by Mr Hey in 2012, thus undermining Mr Kemp, or will they grab votes equally from all parties, or even fail to make any impression? The formerly high EDP vote may be an indicator, only time will tell, but I would guess, given the EP elections, that their candidate, Alicia Denny, might do well on those coat-tails.<br />
<br />
Conservative Hold<br />
<br />
<b>Cosham<br />
</b><br />
This was a bit of a surprise result last time, with the Liberal Democrats coming from a long way behind in 2011 (17.2% and third place) to grab the seat from the Conservatives. The surpise was that one would have though that the most likely party to gain from the Conservatives post-Budget travails were Labour, who had a solid 35% of the vote in 2011. University lecturer, former Cosham councillor and long-time candidate, Graham Heaney, must have been shocked to see his vote share fall to 31.9% whilst the Liberal Democrat's Aiden Gray nearly doubled the Liberal Democrat share to 33.3%, taking the ward with a majority of 43 over Labour. This is especially a shock given that the Liberal Democrats have never really challenged in this ward in the past.<br />
The Conservatives fell into a close third place on 30.2% of the vote and only 95 votes behind Mr Gray. It is possible that the Conservatives' candidate, being a sitting councillor for Baffins, was not particularly welcome and this boosted Mr Gray' vote.<br />
For the TUSC, Simon Ward's 4.1% of the vote may well have cost Labour the election and their return to the fray with Adi Graham as the standard-bearer, along with the Greens being represented by Gavin Ellis, might not make Mr Heaney feel too happy. <br />
Defending for the Conservatives is Hannah Hockaday, as April Windebank (a couple of marvellous names) is not defending for them.<br />
For UKIP, Michael Jerome is standing and, once again, we cannot be sure what effect this will have or who will be most damaged by this, although most surveys continue to show that it is the Conservatives who are, on balance, more effected by voter defections to UKIP.<br />
So, who will win? On the face of it, one might be tempted to plump for the Liberal Democrat's Kirstine Impey on the basis of the large swing last year, however, shortly after being elected for the Liberal Democrats, Mr Gray quit the party and joined the Labour Party and group on the council. This might give Mr Heaney the boost he needs to finally snatch this seat for the first time since he was defeated in 2004 after 9 years as local councillor. It certainly is a must win seat for Labour and one would assume that they are targeting resources appropriately.<br />
I would also guess that the Conservatives will see themselves as certainly in the hunt to hold the seat whilst the Liberal Democrats, undoubtedly stunned by Mr Gray's defection (they are more used to Tory and Labour councillors defecting to them in Portsmouth), might hope to repeat 2012's success.<br />
Given the splitting of the vote on the left and right, I believe this is going to be a very close result, maybe closer than last year. My prediction for last time was a close reult with the Conservatives as slight favourites, this time I am going to nervously predict that Mr Heaney will finally return to the Council Chamber.<br />
<br />
Labour Gain<br />
<br />
<b>Eastney and Craneswater<br />
</b><br />
Often a Liberal Democrat/Conservative marginal, this fairly prosperous ward is being defended this year by sitting Councillor Luke Stubbs for the Conservatives, who has managed to hold this seat by fairly small margins over the Liberal Democrats (he gained it by 18 votes in 2006 and held on by 162 votes in the General Election turnout of 2010). The last Conservative in the ward, Cllr. Stubbs is well-versed in the get out the vote (GOTV) campaign and I would assume that he will have a lot of support from Tory activists in the city as they will be determined to avoid their seat total slipping below double figures in the Council Chamber.<br />
Suzy Horton, for the Liberal Democrats, will undoubtedly be throwing the kitchen sink at this campaign to try to take the final seat from Mr Stubbs, and the signs should really be in her favour, the unknowns are whether Mike George for UKIP will undermine the Tories more than the Lib Dems and whether the intervention of the Green Party, in the shape of Michael Meuhl, will make things more difficult for Ms Horton.<br />
Labour don't really have any hope in this ward and their candidate, Hannah Wright, will be aiming to make a good showing and raise the Labour vote.<br />
For UKIP, it'll be interesting to see how their pitch appeals to the more affluent voter demographic and for Sean Hoyle of TUSC, increasing on 2012's 4.4% will be the plan.<br />
For the Tories to have any hope of holding on, Cllr. Stubbs needs to be getting their vote back of 40%, and maybe quite a bit more than that. Given that the Liberal Democrats' party agent for these elections is a local councillor (last year's victor, Matthew Winnington), I am sure they will be fighting very hard for this seat.<br />
My prediction for last year was pretty much spot on, but I am not so sure this year; even with Mr Stubbs history of pulling it off at the last minute and the rise in the Tories' national ratings, I am making this a tenative Liberal Democrat gain (I think).<br />
<br />
Liberal Democrat Gain<br />
<br />
<b>Fratton<br />
</b><br />
Once a Labour seat, this ward has been solidly Liberal Democrat for a very long time. represented, initially for Labour, then Social Democrat and, after the merger with the Liberals, Liberal Democrat, by Mike Hancock, also the MP for Portsmouth South. Mr Hancock is defending his seat this year and one would normally assume a safe hold with a large majority, but things have changed somewhat over the past year or so.<br />
I do not wish to go into too many details but sufficce it to say that Mr Hancock is standing as the Independent candidate this year as he no longer belongs to the Liberal Democrat group on the council whilst ongoing issues are resolved.<br />
Controversially, the Liberal Deomcrats initially allowed Mr Hancock, though suspended from the party, to remain as a Cabinet Member and to attend the Group as a non-voting member. Due to this, fellow Liberal Democrat councillor for Fratton, Eleanor Scott, resigned from the group (though not the party) and now sits as a non-aligned Liberal Democrat. <br />
Controversially, the Liberal Democrats have decided not to field a candidate against Mr Hancock, and this has led to Cllr. Scott complaining that she does not have a Liberal Democrat to vote for in her own ward.<br />
The Liberal Democrats have stated that they are not offering any official support to Councillor Hancock, although it seems unlikely that many local party members are not campaigning for him.<br />
Labour's candidate is Thomas Coles who will doubtless be hoping that the bad publicity around Mr Hancock will lead to a swing to Labour and a strong showing for the party, improving on the decent 25.4% they received in 2012.<br />
The Conservative candidate is David Tompkins but, given how much the Conservative vote has slipped back in recent years (only 17.1% in 2012), they are unlikely to mount a serious challenge.<br />
TUSC candidate John Pickett is back again this year and will be looking to gain from disgruntlement with the national parties to increase the 7.9% he received last time.<br />
Steven George, a campaigner for the rights of disabled people and planning on standing at the General Election, is aiming his attack pretty squarely at Mr Hancock, but he doesn't appear to be a very seasoned campaigner. He may attract aome protest votes.<br />
UKIP are represented by Julie Swan and, as above, I have no idea how she might do or whom the UKIP vote is most likely to damage in this ward.<br />
Given Councillor Hancock's massive name recognition, his 40+ years on the Council and his well-established campaigning ability, it is hard to see anything but a comfortable hold here. He is reported as saying he is too unwell to carry out his duties but seems determined to defend his seat and he may achieve a set back in terms of vote-share as he normally polls around 60% of the vote, so anything under 50% would be a bit of a personal blow to him, but he should be safe enough here. <br />
<br />
Mike Hancock hold (technically a gain from the Lib dems but, in reality, a hold for them)<br />
<br />
<b>Hilsea<br />
</b><br />
This was one of Labour's outstanding results of 2012 with a swing to them of 9.75% from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives managed to hold onto the seat with a majority of 74 over Labour's Sue Castillon (down from 794 in 2011). <br />
This year, the defending councillor is the Conservative's Frank Jonas, first elected when he gained the ward from Labour in 2006. Ms Castillon has moved to Paulsgrove (where she will be elcted) and is replaced by Sue Greenfield. Given it is in Labour's former Portsmouth North constituency, the party will be campaigning hard here. In 2012, Hilsea was an "open seat" with no defending councillor so it'll be a tougher ask against a sitting councillor, but we shall see.<br />
Unusally for Portsmouth, Hilsea is a Labour/Tory marginal without much threat from the Lib Dems and I do not expect that to change and their candidate, Simon Dodd, is likely to face a squeeze.<br />
Brian Dolley is standing for TUSC, although I do not imagine they will do too well. There used to be a fairly decent EDP vote here, but that seems to have swung to Labour although it might now be susceptible to the charms of UKIP's Barry Young. Will Mr Young cause more damage to the Councillor Jonas or Ms Greenfield?<br />
I am going to guess that Labour are in with a decent chance here and, if pushed, will go with a Labour gain.<br />
<br />
Labour Gain<br />
<br />
<b>Nelson<br />
</b><br />
One of Labour's two gains in 2012, Nelson was formerly a safe bet for the party but, with two councillors falling out with the party and subsequently defecting to the Liberal Democrats (including the former Labour leader, Leo Madden), it swung strongly to the Liberal Democrats. <br />
Last year, Labour's Ken Ferret gained the seat from the Conservatives, who had managed to snatch the seat in 2008 on a low share of the vote (31.4%) due to the split vote for the Lib Dems, Labour and others. <br />
Defending the seat this year is the Liberal Democrat councillor Jason Fazackarley, who was originally a Labour councillor for this ward. He held the seat as a Liberal Democrat quite easily in 2010 but might find it a bit more difficult this time. <br />
For Labour, history teacher Rob Smith is the candidate and Labour has been campigning hard in this ward over the past couple of years.<br />
The Conservatives are not a natural fit for this ward and I believe they face the danger of a squeeze, not just from the Liberal Democrats but also from Colin Galloway from UKIP.<br />
For the TUSC, Gordon Spellman is the candidate but one is not able to guess how they might, and they might appeal to voters from both the Lib Dems and Labour.<br />
It is tough to call here but Cllr. Fazackarley, the Cabinet Member for Traffic and Transportation, is not likely to get an easy ride. Mr Smith, having being somewhat chastened by his failure as Labour candidate in Central Southsea in 2012, will doubtless have learned the lesson of that campaign and, with a team that know what it takes to win behind him, he might manage to be elected this time.<br />
As with others, a tough one to call and, given the strained personal relationships between former comrades, these elections can be quite personal.<br />
Given that, I am just going to favour a Labour gain here as it is a seat that makes up Portsmouth North, so Labour will be keen to win it in a constituency they will want to target at the General Election. There are signs of Labour voters returning from the Liberal Democrats and there is a strong party campaign.<br />
<br />
Labour Gain (I wouldn't been surprised if Cllr Fazackarley proved me wrong).<br />
<br />
<br />
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-40307500977640699332014-04-10T09:58:00.003-07:002014-04-10T09:58:49.432-07:00The Church of Torres Strait to join the Ordinariate.I am very grateful to Conchur for his link to the announcement that the ACCA Diocese of Torres Straitis to become a Territory within the Personal Ordinariate of Our Lady of the Southern Cross.<br />
This is a quite wonderful announcement as it brings to a conclusion a long process whereby the unique position of this former Diocese of the Anglican Church of Australia and then the Anglican Catholic Church of Australia.<br />
Somewhere over a thousand people will be part of this process and, with their Bishop and priests, have something of a journey still to travel. I offer them my prayers and gratitude for the steps that they are taking to represent a unique form of visible unity in the Church, that of the Ordinariates.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://ordinariate.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140409-Announcement-re-THE-CHURCH-OF-TORRES-STRAIT22.pdf">http://ordinariate.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140409-Announcement-re-THE-CHURCH-OF-TORRES-STRAIT22.pdf</a><br />
<br />
Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-16566071551168017392014-04-07T07:09:00.000-07:002014-04-07T07:10:47.123-07:00Cornwall Unitary Election results, 2013: PenwithAs with my overview of the forthcoming elections last April, I decided it would be fun to follow (as far as possible) the old district and borough boundaries.<br />
The last time that local council elections took place in the now defunct (as of 2009) Penwith District Council, these were the results:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Conservative 4787 37.9% 8 <br />
Liberal Democrat 4101 32.5% 3 <br />
Independent 1578 12.5% 1 <br />
Green Party 973 7.7% 0 <br />
Labour 699 5.5% 0 <br />
UKIP 299 2.4% 0 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 196 1.6% 0 <br />
<br />
A council elected by thirds (with not all wards having elections each year), the Conservatives had a very good result this time, topping the poll and taking 2/3 of the seats up for election; they gained three seats. The Liberal Democrats didn't poll too badly as they only stood in 8 of the 12 wards, but they lost 2 seats to the Toruies, gaining a couple from Indepe ndents. The Conservatives were unopposed in St. Buryan ward.<br />
There were Independent candidates only in the four wards they were defending, and they lost three of them.<br />
Labour had candidates in Penzance East (Cornelius Olivier coming third with 17.3%), Penzance South (Sara Olivier with last with 9.7%) and St. Ives South (with Terence Murray last with 10%). Both Mr Olivier and Mr Murray returned in 2013 with divergent levels of success.<br />
The Greens only stood in 4 wards, polling best in St Ives South with Ron Tulley as candidate (26.3%). <br />
UKIP had two candidates and polled respectably for the time.<br />
For Mebyon Kernow, only Penzance East was contested by Phil Rendle, taking 12.5% of the vote. Mr Rendle was also a candidate in 2013 in Penzance East.<br />
<br />
Unitary Council Elections, 2009:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Conservative 6678 30.6% 7 <br />
Independent 5321 24.4% 5 <br />
Liberal Democrat 4830 22.1% 3 <br />
UKIP 1767 8.1% 0<br />
Green Party 1586 7.3% 0<br />
Labour 1178 5.4% 0 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 384 1.8% 0 <br />
Liberal Party 73 0.3% 0<br />
<br />
A good result for the Conservatives, topping the poll and taking 7 of the 15 divisions up for election, not as well as in the last District council elections in 2007, but considerably better than the last County elections of 2005.<br />
In 2005, there were only 2 Independent councillors (out of 10 on the old County Council). This time with eleven candidates waving the independent flag out of 15 divisions, they polled very well, pushing the Liberal Democrats into third place in terms of vote share and councillors elected.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, 2009 was an pretty awful electoral cycle in this area, taking only four of the divisions and being heavily cut back in vote share, despite standing in 14 of the 15 divisions.<br />
UKIP had 10 candidates, polling best in Penzance Central with 17.8% of the Penzance Central vote being the best showing for candidate Oli Faulkner. The 8.1% of the total vote in the old Penwith area firmly established the party on the map at a time not so good for them around the country.<br />
The Green Party only fought five divisions and polled well in St. Ives South (26.3%), St. Ives North (25.8%) where Tim Andrewes missed out on the seat by 24 votes, St. Buryan (20.2%), and polling well in Ludgvan and Lelant and Carbis Bay. They were very disappointed to fail to make the breakthrough they had hoped for in St. Ives.<br />
Labour were shattered by this election, failing to hold on in Penzance East and pushed into fourth place in Penzance Central. There vote share was better than the last district council elections, but they had 10 candidates this time so more of a chance to appear to improve, but it was pretty much a collapse for the party.<br />
Mebyon Kernow only fought Gulval and Heamor (5.6%) and Newlyn and Mousehole (15.3%).<br />
The Liberal Party contested Penzance Central, coming last with 6% of the vote.<br />
<br />
Unitary Council Elections, 2013:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Conservative 4229 21.9% 6 <br />
UKIP 3912 20.3% 0<br />
Independent 3863 20.0% 4<br />
Liberal Democrat 3005 15.6% 2 <br />
Labour 2375 12.3% 2 <br />
Green Party 1790 9.3% 1<br />
Mebyon Kernow-PC 144 0.7% 0 <br />
<br />
An absolutely fascinating result, with 5 parties gaining elected representatives and UKIP, who came second in terms of votes cast, failing to take a seat. The Conservatives fought 13 divisions, won 6 seats (1 down from 2009) and top the poll with only 21.9% of the vote. They only just held UKIP off in Ludgvan (by 51 votes), Marazion and Perranuthnoe (by 67 votes), but weren't too seriously challenged elsweher in the light of a very split opposition. The big loss for them was in St. Ives West where defending Councillor, Joan Tanner, came fourth with only 11.2% of the vote - she won the old St. Ives North division with only 27.6% of the vote and a majority of 24, but this was a crushing defeat to Independent candidate Andrew Mitchell.<br />
The Conservatives can consider themselves pretty lucky, on the whole. Unlike, as already noted, UKIP who have under-performed compared to much of Cornwall. As I have noted elesewhere, where UKIP has an established electoral histroy and are not the 'new kid on the block' they appear to have failed to fully reap the anti-establishment whirlwind. A good vote (20.3%), but a deeply disappointing outcome for them.<br />
Independents only ran in 11 divisions, but garnered 20.3 of the vote, with Independent candidates gaining St. Ives West, and holding Hayle North, Hayle South and Penzance Promenade. <br />
The Liberal Democrats had a shocker of an election here as one would have expected them to bounce back after 2009. Fighting only eleven of the divisions, they lost the Penzance Central and Penzance East divisions to Labour by painfully close margins of 24 and 20 votes, only gaining St. Just in Penwith after the retirment of Chris Goninan as Independent councillor. Their share of the vote collapsed dramatically since 2009 in both St. Ives divisions, Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth, and Newlyn and Mousehole, St. Buryan (from 32.3% to 7.3%!). Only in Gulval and Heamoor did they have a sitting councillor whose vote increased, from 54.9% to 66.5%. The party seems to have been crushed by the efforts of the Greens, Labour and UKIP.<br />
For the Labour Party, fighting 12 of the 15 divisions, a very satisfactory night with them winning two of the Penzance divisions and polling well where they had candidates, except in St. Ives East where they were heavily squeezed. They still came in fifth in share of the vote (12.3%) but, after the disaster of the 2009 unitary elections and the decline for Labour in recent years, this was a good result for them.<br />
For the Green Party, finally they fulfilled the promise of gaining a victory in St. Ives, with Tim Andrewes winning in the East division with 37.3% of the vote and a 132 majority over long-time Copnservatve councillor, Joan Symons.<br />
Sadly, Ron Tulley failed to join his colleague, losing out in West division by a painful 7 votes to Independent candidate, Andrew Mitchell. The party polled well in Ludgvan (23.9%) and Marazion and Perranuthnoe (20.9%), but will be disappointed not to have fallen back in Lelant and Carbis Bay (13.8%).<br />
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, they only had candidates in the Central and East divisions of Penzances, winning 4.2% and 7.4% of the vote respectively. <br />
<br />
<b>Gulval and Heamor</b><br />
<br />
Pretty much a forgone conclusion for defending Liberal Democrat Councillor Mario Fonk (I love the names of some of the candidates in Cornwall), having easily beaten six other challengers in 2009 with 54.9% of the vote, he was not likely to suffer this year, especially given the lack of a centre-left challenger. As it is, his voteshare increased to a very impressive 66.5% with a majority of 572 over the second placed returning candidate, Rose Smith of UKIP. My only real interest was in whom came second, and a very decent increase on her vote last time when she received 9.7%, now up to 24.7%.<br />
Trailing distantly and dismally in third, and last, place came Pam Yeates for the Conservatives, who saw the vote she received last time (15.8%) slip back to an not too impressive 9.7%.<br />
<br />
<b>Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth</b><br />
<br />
A new Councillor was elected for this Division with after the death of Cllr. Ray Tovey in September of 2012. Only elected in the Conservative intertest by 65 votes in 2009, second-placed Independent, Sheila Furneaux, won the subsequent byelection by a nerve-shredding 4 votes. After only four months, she had obviously not recovered and decided not to defend the division.<br />
I predicted a Conservative hold (regain after the byelection), and so it proved, but successful candidate, Lionel Pascoe, only managed to take 30.1% of the vote and had a very flattering 103 vote majority over UKIP's Peter Channon on 22.6%. Two Independent candidates came in third (Angelo Spencer-Smith - 18%) and fourth (Michael Roberts - 13.3%); it was Mr Roberts who just lost out in the byelection , so I expect he will be very disappointed to come a distant fourth.<br />
For Labour, Michael Smith will be pleased to have moved up the pecking order and secured a decent (compared to last time) 13.3% of the vote, up from 5.4% in 2009.<br />
The Liberal Democrats received 22.2% of the vote last time, so the 4.4% this time is a shocker for them as Yvonne Bates must have been hoping to re-establish the party in the area, where they fairly recently had councillors elected.<br />
At least she was denied the agony of last place by the poor result for Green candidate, Theresa Byrne, who managed only 3.1% of the vote.<br />
<br />
<b>Hayle North</b><br />
<br />
A good result from this little-revised division for re-elected Independent Councillor John Pollard, who, with only UKIP and Labour challengers this time, increased his vote share to 65.4% (50.9% in 2009). This gave him a very big 466 majority over the second-placed Lynda Chidell of UKIP, who managed 23.8%.<br />
For Labour, in the absence of a Lib Dem, Anthony Phillips might have expected to do better, but 10% is a doubling of the party's result in 2009.<br />
I am surprised that neither the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats fielded a candidate here and think it is sad for the voters.<br />
<br />
<b>Hayle South</b><br />
<br />
I predicted Independent Councillor John Coombe would hold the seat, but with a few reservations. I shouldn't have worried, as Mr Coombe achieved 44.7% of the vote, up from 36.5% in 2009.<br />
In a very decent second place came UKIP's Clive Polkinghorne, a campaigner for the local harbour, who more than doubled his party share last time to 29.1%; one of the occasions when a UKIP history didn't seem to have dampened the party vote. He undoubtedly gained from the absence of the Conservative Party (16.5% in 2009) and was a long way ahead of the third-placed Labour candidate, Anne-Marie Rance.<br />
Ms Rance, another well-known local campaigner, will be very happy with her 16.1% of the vote, well up on Labour's 6.4% at the last elections.<br />
Trailing in fourth came the second Independent candidate, retired policeman Graham Coad, who could only manage to take 10.1% of the vote.<br />
<br />
<b>Lelant and Carbis Bay</b><br />
<br />
I went with a Conservative hold here but with some reservations as I wasn't sure what the effect of the Green candidate's (Maxine Armstrong) victory in the town council byelection might be (in the then absence of a Conservative candidate).<br />
In the end, Liz Penhaligon held her seat with a much reduced vote share of 34.7%, down fron 51.3% in 2009. As I speculated, the entrance of UKIP into this race seems to have had a big effect on the Tory vote share with UKIP'S Sandy Msrtin polling a very creditable 22.6% of the poll to take second place.<br />
In the end the Green's Maxine Armstrong did even worse than her predecessor, with her only managing to attract 13.8% of the vote (19.8% in 2009); her 156 votes were well below the 372 she received when being elected for the division area in the town council byelection - people were obviously happy to vote Green to stop the Labour candidate then.<br />
Richard Glanville, standing as an Independent, about whom I could glean nothing, received 10.1% of the vote and fourth place, 2 votes above Lib Dem Howard Hollingsbee's (10%) with Labour's Graham Webster a further 8 votes behind in last place (9%).<br />
Local newsagent Mr Webster will be very disappointed to have done so poorly, as he came second in the Independent cause in 2009 with 28.4% of the vote. Labour has still got a lot to do here to build itself up and UKIP have become a clear party of protest against government policies.<br />
<br />
<b>Ludgvan</b><br />
<br />
There was always going to be a new councillor here following the retirement, due to ill health, of (Independent) Irene Bailey in November 2012. Such a long interregnum was obviously marked by hard campaigning by the three parties who stood last May. I predicted a Conservative victory for returning candidate Roy Mann, but thought he could be run close by returning, and high-profile, UKIP candidate, Robert Smith. <br />
Well, I was right as Mr Mann gained the seat in the Tory cause but was closely pressed by Mr Smith, who fell just 51 votes short of Mr Mann, with his vote share shooting up from 8.3% in 2009 to 35.9% this time. Mr Mann managed to increase his vote share by 9% to 40.2% this time and will be somewhat relieved.<br />
I thought that the Green's Ian Flindall might achieve a decent vote in the absence of the Lib Dems or any other left-of-centre alternative, and he did well gaining 23.9% (up from 13.2% in 2009).<br />
Mr Smith would protest that his opposition to the EU comes from a left-wing perspective (he is the son-in-law of the late anti-Common Market Labour cabinet minister, Peter Shore), and, as will be noted below, his wife and mother-in-law stood for UKIP as well. The problem he has is that he failed to impress the left-wing vote who seem more pro-EU and less enamoured with other UKIP policies, hence their votes for the EU-friendly Mr Flindall.<br />
<br />
<b>Marazion and Perranuthnoe</b><br />
<br />
In an almost mirror image result to Ludgvan, the Conservative councillor defending the division, Sue Nicholas, managed to win here by increasing her vote share to 41.9% (34.6% in 2009) just holding off the surging UKIP candidate, Glyn Owen, by 67 votes.<br />
Mr Owen seems to have swept up most of the votes for the Independent candidates at the last elections to take his party share from 12.9% to 37.1%. A very good result but no winner's rosette.<br />
As with Ludgvan, the Green Party, through its candidate, organic B&B owner Peter Williams, seems to have grabbed the Liberal Democrat vote from 2009 to pick up the exact same poll share of 20.9%.<br />
<br />
<b>Newlyn and Mousehole</b><br />
<br />
A straightforward win here by sitting Tory councillor, Roger Harding, with his vote share of 47.9% just a little down from the 49.6% he achieved in 2009.<br />
In a distant second place came UKIP's Tacy Smith, daughter of the late Labour grandee, Peter Shore. She will be disappointed to have only received 18.3% of the vote (from 14.3% in 2009)- with the exception of Ludgvan, most of the Penzance area divisions were disappointing for UKIP and confirms a pattern where a long activity for UKIP appears to make them less of a vehicle for protest votes.<br />
In joint third place came the Green Party's Heidi Worth who seems to have inherited much of the vote that Mebyon Kernow received when they stood in 2009, sharing 159 votes and 11% with Labour's Nicholas Round, who must be disappointed not to have done better being only a little up on last time (8.9%).<br />
Independent candidate Nigel Davis came fifth with 6.3%, whilst Caroline White for the Liberal Democrats came in last with 5.6%. Her campaign will not have been helped by the fact the Heidi Worth was formerly the Liberal Democrat candidate before defecting to the Green Party.<br />
<br />
<b>Penzance Central</b><br />
<br />
This is a division that likes close run elections, with former Liberal Democrat councillor, Tamsin Williams, just edging out the Tory by 14 votes and only a 30.4% poll share in 2009.<br />
Her replacement as candidate, Penny Young, will be disppointed to have lost by only 44 votes this time, and she managed to hold on to much of the Lib Dem vote with 27.9%. It is not the Conservatives who claimed the crown though as Labour's Cornelius Oliver bounced back from his fourth place and 17.3% last time to take the division with 31.4% of the vote. A real squeaker by any measure. I predicted a Labour gain as it is a seat they should be winning but they never get a massive vote share here.<br />
In fourth place came UKIP's Peter Mates with a disappointing 14% of the vote, a drop of 3.8% on 2009. As I have already suggested elsewhere, Penzance's long history of UKIP campaigning seems to have taken the gloss off them and they are doing worse than one would have expected.<br />
Independent candidate John Moreland, formerly a Lib Dem town councillor, came in next with 12.5% of the vote.<br />
The Conservatives might have hoped to be the main challengers here based on their strong second place in 2009, but selecting a candidate (Michael Rabbitte) who stated in his election address that he has spent the last 28 years in London was undoubtedly a mistake and he slipped back to 5th place with only 10%.<br />
It became clear quite quickly in the campaign that MK-PC's Phillip Rendle had little chance and he was pretty much squeezed out with only 4.2% of the vote.<br />
It was obviously quickly established that the only real contenders were Labour and the Liberal Democrats and Labour's well-organised campaign paid off, but kudos to Ms Young for her campaign putting up a very strong fight to hold the seat. This probably led to the not too bad turnout of 39%.<br />
<br />
<b>Penzance East</b><br />
<br />
Another close battle here between the defending Liberal Democrat councillor, Ruth Lewarne, and Labour's Tim Dwelly. In 2009 she edged out Labour's John Payne by only 24 votes as she took 30.4% to his 28.3%; this time, it is a switcheroo with Mr Dwelly being elected with 30.6% of the poll and a 20 vote majority over Ms Lewarne who took 29% of the vote. <br />
It was quite a tough campaign with Mr Dwelly being heavily targeted and which produced a rather unlikely leaflet that suggested to those tempted to vote Labour that only a Lib Dem vote could keep the Tories out - a traditional Lib Dem tactic, but totally untrue in Penzance East (where the Tories only took 13.5% of the vote in 2009). You know though, it might just have worked if 11 Labour voters had bought it and skipped across.<br />
In third place came UKIP stalwart and long-time candidate, Mick Faulkner, who will be unhappy to have only gained 15.7% of the votes cast, a drop of 1.2% from last time - I have already commented on this phenomena in the above commentary.<br />
The Conservatives confirmed themselves as being well out of contention here with their candidate, Angela Elliott, seeing their vote drop further to 10%.<br />
In fifth place came MK-PC's blogging candidate, Rob Simmons, who has learnt the lesson that one needs to be out and about campaigning with a good team to win votes, rather than blogging. He managed 7.4% of the vote.<br />
Last came the Green candidate, Michelle Paine, with 7.2% of the vote. Neither she nor Mr Simmons were ever likely to get much traction in this two-way battle.<br />
I predicted a Labour win but thought it mightn't be quite so close, so well done to Ms Lewarne.<br />
A not bad 36% turnout for the demographic make-up of this division.<br />
<br />
<b>Penzance Promenade</b><br />
<br />
I sometimes wish I would be a bit more romantic in my predictions (although some of them come over as fairly fantastic) as I would certainly have gone with this division being won by Independent Jim McKenna; I just believed that the Liberal Democrats would have a better campaigning team. There was no defending candidate as Independent councillor Sue Pass had decided to step down this time.<br />
I am glad I got this wrong as Mr McKenna is an all-round good egg who has dedicated his life, and money, to local charities, campaigning for affordable homes and extending Penzance Radio's coverage. He took 33.4% of the vote beating Liberal Democrat Daniel Garside by 116 votes, which must have been a real blow for Mr Garside who will have hoped to be able to build on the party's 29.6% last time. His party's vote slipped back to 25.4%.<br />
In a very solid third place, and with a much increased vote share, came Labour's standard-bearer, John Kirman, who I described as a sacrificial lamb as the party's concentration would be with Central and East. Well, I think they might wish they had worked harder as Mt Kirman took 19.5% of the poll, up from 3.8% in 2009. With less votes cast than then, they improved from a dismal 62 votes to a very healthy 283 votes. Whilst they would have struggled to overhaul Mr McKenna, they might have snatched second place from the Liberal Democrats.<br />
In fourth place came UKIP's Liz Shore, the widow of former Labour Cabinet Minister Peter Shore. She only managed to achieve a 13.6% vote share, up from 8.3% last time; although it is a rise, it is a disappointing one.<br />
Last came the Conservative candidate, Davis Miles, seeing the vote slashed from 20.4% last time to 8.1% this.<br />
This is an election that will have had a lot of churn in it and it'd be fascinating to see how people's votes changed on last time.<br />
An encouraging turnout of 46%.<br />
<br />
<b>St Buryan</b><br />
<br />
A fairly straight-forward victory for sitting Conservative Bill Maddern, taking 40.5% of the poll, but suffering a loss of 7% on 2009. <br />
In second place this time came Independent candidate, Norman Bliss, who seems to have managed to have successfully targeted the Liberal Democrats over their 0% budget rise which he criticised on his StBuryanVoter blog for cutting local services. He pulled in a very impressive 28.5% for a first time candidate.<br />
In third place comes a Labour's stalwart activist, Juliet Eavis, who should be pleased taking 13.7% and 206 votes in an area they failed to stand last time. Labour used to have decent vote here and it seems they still have some potential.<br />
In fourth place comes the Green Party's Peter Hardy, who might have hoped to have pushed for second place after the decent 20.2% showing in 2009, but this seems to have been partly due to the absence of a Labour candidate. This time they have slipped back to 10%.<br />
The shocker in this election was for the Liberal Democrats, for whom Frank Blewett took a battering as he came in last with a dismal 7.3% - a shocking drop from 32.3% last time. Mr Bliss and, to a lesser extent, Ms Eavis seems to have given voters an opportunity to punish them for the 0% budget vote.<br />
This division appears to have a strong possible vote for a single left of centre candidate, if such an opportunity ever presents itself.<br />
A not too awful 41% turnout here.<br />
<br />
<b>St Ives East</b><br />
<br />
The long trailed Green Party breakthrough finally arrived with the election of Tim Andrewes, who just missed out on the old St Ives North division by 24 votes in 2009. He took 37.3% of the vote and had a majority of 132 over long-time elected representative, and defending councillor (for the old St Ives South), Joan Symons of the Conservatives (26.8%).<br />
In third place came anti-parking costs campaigner Morag Robertson, standing as an Independent. She managed to take a decent enough 14.4% of the poll. 12 votes behind her came UKIP's Roy Britton, who will be very disppointed with only 13.5 of the vote, a small advance from the St Ives vote last time.<br />
Labour's Terry Murray was always going to find it a less than propitious time to be trying to improve his party's vote, with anyone tempted to vote for him as likely to support Mr Andrewes, so his 5.5% share is a not too unexpected disappointment and, to be honest, fairly disasterous for a party trying to grow.<br />
However, the real disaster is for the Liberal Democrats, a one-time dominant party in St Ives, their candidate, Madie Parkinson-Smith, was always in danger of being squeezed by Mr Andrewes. I never thought it would be this bad: they took 2.5% of the vote.<br />
A decentish 41% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>St Ives West</b><br />
<br />
My prediction: Green gain (the Tories could struggle to be second). Well, I was nearly right as the Greens just missed out by 7 votes and the Conservatives came fourth!<br />
The victor was Independent candidate, Andrew Mitchell, a former Liberal Democrat district councillor. His 27.9% of the vote just edged out the Greens' Ron Tully, and Mr Tully must be devadtated. He had struggled to break out of a 26-27% vote share each time he has stood and only managed 27.3% this time. He lost by 200 votes in St Ives South in 2009 and must surely have thought his chance had come, but their appears to be a reluctance by people to vote for him. Deeply disappointing for the Green Party as a whole as they must have thought that they would have two seats from St Ives.<br />
In third place came Stuart (William) Guppy for UKIP, who might have thought he could take advantage of the split vote, but he lifted the vote to 17.6%, someway off the front-runners.<br />
Most humiliatingly, in fourth place came sitting (St Ives North) Conservative councillor, Joan Tanner. Her victory in 2009 could be said to have been somewhat fortuitous, given a very split vote and only 27.6%, but she only managed to take 11.2% of the vote here. <br />
Just behind Ms Tanner came Labour's Malcolm Hurst, with 10.1% of the vote. He will be happy enough with this as it is quite an increase compared to both divisions in 2009 when they were tightly squeezed. He must have expected this to happen this time but Mr Guppy's inability to attract these votes are an issue for the Greens to consider (it is either the individual or the party).<br />
In a poor last place on 6% of the vote trailed in Lester Scott for the Liberal Democrats. One can only assume that much of the vote has gone to Mr Mitchell but, for the Liberal Democrats, this is all pretty worrying.<br />
A not too impressive 34.5% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>St Just-in-Penwith</b><br />
<br />
Some light for the Liberal Democrats in this area with Sue James, as predicted, gaining the the "open seat" (Independent Councillor Chris Goninan having stepped down). With 36.6% of the vote (up from 33% last time), the Liberal Democrats will be relieved to be having some improvement in what has been a generally disappointing election for them in his part of Cornwall. Given the vote share, her 244 majority is very decent.<br />
As predicted, her main challenge came from Independent candidate, Kevin McFadden, who might have hoped to do better than receive 21.2% of the poll, given a strong tradition of voting for Independents in St Just (Mr Goninan received 51.4% in 2009), but I suppose you have to be the right kind of Independent. <br />
UKIP will be very happy with their candidate, Adrian Smith's, 19.4% of the poll from nowhere last time, not being too far off second place in the split opposition to Ms James.<br />
Not too far behind him, on 16%, came Labour's Kirsty Pritchard, who will be delighted that she has managed to better the 15% vote share Labour got in 2005 (they had no candidate in 2009), a General Election year. <br />
Coming in a poor last place with only 6.8% of the vote was the Conservative candidate, David Lenaghan. They only received 10.5% in 2009, so were never going to be challengers.<br />
Apropos of nothing, a lot of Irish names flying around this area. As the most westerly town in mainland Britain, is it a place with strong Irish connections?<br />
Decent 41% turnout.<br />
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<br />Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-33480370677294944992014-04-07T06:45:00.002-07:002014-04-07T06:45:22.853-07:00Hi Phil!Dear Phil, I thought the only way to grab your attention was to post - best of luck in Drypool in bringing down the Lib Dem vote enough for Labour to snatch it (ha!). You only need 1,200 votes, I would guess, to have a chance of snatching it but, even with your great personality, commitment and access to pychtropic drugs, I cannot see UKIP taking that ward.<br />
Anyway - love to everybody in the Healthcare Centre and keep your chin up.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-56354768129833928062014-03-30T09:21:00.000-07:002014-04-07T07:14:08.685-07:00Cornwall Unitary Election Results, 2013: RestormelAs with my overview of the (at the time) forthcoming elections last April, I decided it would be fun to follow (as far as possible) the old district and borough boundaries.<br />
The last time that local council elections took place in the now defunct (as of 2009) Restormel Borough Council, these were the results:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 9663 31.5% 20 <br />
Conservative 9216 30.0% 10 <br />
Independent 9126 29.7% 13 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 1485 4.8% 2 <br />
Labour 537 1.7% 0 <br />
Green Party 371 1.2% 0 <br />
BNP 298 1.0% 0 <br />
<br />
The Liberal Democrats stood candidates in 18 of the 19 wards in 2007 and slipped back a little compared to the last elections in 2003, losing two councillors and slipping in the vote share from 35.9% to 31.5%, ( they actually stood in 17 wards in 2003). <br />
The Conservatives had only put up candidates in 9 wards in 2003, so the rise in their vote share from 19.2% was not unexpected when they stood in 18 wards this time. They only gained one seat overall but will have been pleased to overhaul the Independent share of the vote.<br />
Independents had contested 14 wards in 2003, winning to seats unopposed in Fowey and Tywardreath, as did the Liberal Democrats), so gaining 30.6% of the vote was fairly impressive.Thirteen councillors were elected as Independent in 2003, and the number remined the same this time, although there was some seat-swapping between the different interests. Only 12 wards had cnadidates standing as Independents in 2007, so almost retaining the vote share (30.6% in 2003) was very impressive.<br />
Mebyon Kernow had three candidates, with Dick Cole and Matthew Luke topping the poll in their wards, up from one (Mr Cole) in 2003, with the vote share just about the same (4.9% in 2003).<br />
For Labour, not a great election, from eleven candidates and 9.4% in 2003 to only 3 candidates in two wards at these elections, taking a miniscule 1.7% of the votes. The best results was 18.6% in Mount Charles ward. Labour were very much a busted flush in these elections.<br />
The Green Party had two candidates, polling best with 16.4% in St. Ewe ward.<br />
The BNP only stood in Bethel ward, taking 17.4% of the vote there.<br />
Unitary Council Elections, 2009:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 8469 31.2% 11 <br />
Conservative 8761 32.2% 6 <br />
Independent 6555 24.1% 5 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 1805 6.6% 1 <br />
Labour 942 3.5% 0 <br />
Green Party 262 1.0% 0 <br />
UKIP 208 0.8% 0<br />
BNP 104 0.4% 0 <br />
EDP 81 0.3% 0<br />
<br />
What appeared to be a fairly good result for the Liberal Democrats, compared to their results in other parts of Cornwall, but they they just held on in the St. Austell Bethel (18), St. Austell Gover (53 votes), Penwithick (78 votes), St. Mewan (38 votes), Mount Charles (18 votes), Newquay Central (54 votes), Newquay Pentire (96 votes), and Newquay Treloggan (47 votes) divisions, so things were not that rosy for them. They had candidates in all the divisions.<br />
For the Conservatives, a good vote share but they were not far off in Mount Charles (a close third, 66 votes behind the winner), Newquay Central, Newquay Pentire, Newquay Treloggan, Newquay Treviglas (81 votes behind), St. Mewan, Penwithick, St. Austell Bethel and St. Austell Gover divisions, so they will be disappointed not to have won more seats. They did actually top the poll by eleven votes over the Liberal Democrats and had candidates in all the divisions.<br />
Those standing under the Independent colours won five divisions (Newquay Treviglas, Roche, St. Columb, St. Dennis, and St. Stephen), and there were 22 candidates in 15 divisions, so 24.1% was fairly good. Independent candidates came fairly close in St. Austell Poltair (3rd place and 90 votes behind the winner), Newquay Treloggan, (3rd place and 64 votes behind), Mount Charles (18 votes), and polled fairly well elsewhere. For the robust Independent tradition in these parts, it was a disappointing set of results.<br />
Mebyon Kernow fought 5 divisions, winning only in St. Enoder where Dick Cole was elected with 77.6% of the vote and a majority of 750. They only polled fairly decentlyin one other division, that of Penwithick where former district councillor Matthew Luke came third with 26.8% of the vote.<br />
The Labour Party's nadir of 2009 was very much in evidence here with the party fighting 13 divisions and being crushed everywhere with the exception of St. Blaise division where they managed 172 votes (16.4% of the poll). They did not manage to get into three figures in terms of votes cast in any other division they fought, with the next best vote share being 8.5% in St. Austell Poltair. An unmitigated disaster and terrible blow to a party of government (as it then was).<br />
The Green Party had two candidates in Mevagissey (9.9%) and Newquay Treviglas (9.4%).<br />
UKIP had one candidate in St. Austell Bethel, taking 15.8% of the vote.<br />
The BNP stood in Newquay Treloggan, taking 10.5% of the vote.<br />
The English Democrats only fielded a candidate in Newquay Pentire, where they took 7.6% of the vote, ahead Labour's humiliating 2.8% and thirty votes.<br />
<br />
Unitary Council Elections, 2013:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 4879 22.1% 9<br />
Conservative 5742 26.0% 4 <br />
Independent 5550 25.2% 7 <br />
Mebyon Kernow-PC 2201 9.8% 2 <br />
UKIP 2060 9.4% 1<br />
Labour 1564 7.1% 1 <br />
Green Party 62 0.3% 0 <br />
<br />
A bit of a shocker here with the Liberal Democrats coming third in terms of vote share, with only 22.1% of the vote (down from 31.9% in 2009), actually slipping behind the total for Independent candidates by 671 votes. They did, however, manage to hold on to most of their seats, winning in 9 of the divisions (down from 11 last time), though there was some churn in the seats they won. Standing in 18 of the divisions, they had a mix of good results, lucky escapes and disasterous collapses in share of the vote. In many cases though, their good campaigning just pulled them through.<br />
The Conservatives, who retained their 'top of the poll' position with only 26% of the votes cast (down from 31.9% in 2009), fell from 6 seats to 4, an awful result for them. They had the odd moment of joy, such as Benedicte Poula Gwyneth Bay successfully defending Lostwithiel with an increased share of the vote.<br />
The Independents will be much happier, with Independent candidates holding pretty much the same vote share as in 2009 and going from 5 to 7 divisions - they gained Mount Charles and St. Austell Gover. <br />
Mebyon Kernow- Party of Cornwall had a good election, gaining Penwithick and Boscoppa from the Liberal Democrats and holding St. Enoder, re-electing MK-PC leader Dick Cole with a thumping share of the vote.<br />
UKIP can celebrate the election of their first councillor in this area with Mark Hicks being elected in Newquay Treviglas. They might have been happier as they were only 28 behind Labour's Michael Bunney in Mevagissey, in a fairly close second in Lostwithiel (88 votes behind), 32 votes behind (in 3rd place) in Newquay Tretherras. They appear to have targeted fairly well and were just short of pulling off a big shock and taking 3 or 4 seats.<br />
For Labour, great joy in gaining Mevagissey from nowhere and 4.1% of the vote at the last Unitary elections. They continue to disappoint in not appearing to have the activist base to be able to put up decent campaigns in more divisions across the old borough. They fielded 10 candidates and will be pleased to have become the clear challengers to the Liberal Democrats in St. Blazey with 24.1% of the vote and will be quite satisfied to have posted fairly good vote shares in Newquay Treviglas (17.8%) and St. Austell, Poltair (18.4%). Labour would be winning these sort of seats in other parts of the country and they need to ask themselves whether times will ever again be as propitious for them to replace the Liberal Democrats as the voice of the struggling working class.<br />
For the Green Party, only one candidate in Mevagissey who was completely squeezed out of the race.<br />
<br />
<b>Bugle</b><br />
<br />
Sitting councillor Jackie Bull moved to stand in St Austell Poltair, so anti-cuts campaigner, Simon Rix, picked up the Liberal Democrat banner in this much revised division. With 27% of local children living in poverty, his position reflects the people he hoped to represent. His task was made difficult by representing a party in national government who might be held responsible for the cuts. I predicted that the Liberal Democrats would hold on here, but with a much reduced vote share and majority, and so it proved with Mr Rix being elected with only 33.4% of the vote and a majority of 90 over the Conservative candidate, Rachel Beadle, who did well to maintain a healthy vote share of 23.9%<br />
I guessed that the drop in the Lib Dem voted wouldn't favour the Tories in this area, and it didn't, with Independent candidate, Steve Hopper, taking third place (16.1%) and edging out MK-PC's Jerry Jeffries, who might have hoped to do better than fourth place and 14.7% of the vote.<br />
Coming in last is Labour's regular candidate, David Doyle, who will be disappointed to have failed to build up the Labour vote higher than 12% in an area where they should really appeal. It is, however, a darn sight better than the dismal 5.8% achieved in the old division in 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>Fowey and Tywardreath </b><br />
<br />
Phew - this was a close run election, as history in this area suggests, and I thought MK-PC's Fiona Carlyon might do well, but I didn't have any evidence from election results that saw her coming so close to taking the winners laurels.<br />
Whilst Cllr David Hughes 'held' the seat (much revised after boundary changes), he only did so by 13 votes over Ms Carlyon. He took 37.8% to her 36.8%, quite stunning really and a sign of some unhappiness from many voters at the Liberal Democrat performance in government.<br />
In the third place, retired naval man, Adrian Wildish received 25.4% of the vote, but he was very much out of this race in a place Tories would hope to win.<br />
A decent 38% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Lostwithiel</b><br />
<br />
I really thought that this division would slip back to its traditional Independent representation but, with an increased vote share (35.6%, up from 30.7% in 2009), the wonderfully named Conservative, Benedicte Poula Gwyneth Bay, successfully defended the seat for the Tories.<br />
In second place came UKIP's Nigel Challis, whom I saw as a bit of a dark horse but I doubted he would be able to take the seat, but he didn't come far off so doing, with 28.5% of the vote - well up on 2009's 8.8%. He obviously appealed to the independently-minded voter in the division.<br />
In a close third place came Independent candidate, Graham Jarrett, who received 26.9% of the vote.<br />
Coming in last was the Liberal Democrat's Marian Oldor Candy whose 9.1% was marginally better than the party share last time (8.4%)<br />
A 37% voter turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Mevagissey</b> <br />
<br />
Now this was a surprise, with Labour's Michael Bunney coming from a miserable last place and 4.1% of the vote for his party in 2009 to snatching the division with 29.7% this time. Mr Bunney just kept out UKIP's Michael Williams by 28 votes, in itself amazing as this had been a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal at the last Unitary elections with those parties accruing 85.9% of the vote between them; indeed, this has been a marginal between the parties for sometime.<br />
They were truly pushed out at this election, with the Conservatives' James Mustoe losing his party's grip on the seat and coming third with 24% of the vote (44.5% in 2009) and, even more calamitously, with the Liberal Democrats, who I expected to gain this division, falling to fourth place and 14% of the vote (41.4% in 2009).<br />
In last place came the Green Party's Katherine Moseley, who saw her party's share more than halved from 9.9% to 4.7%.<br />
The Labour campaign here was obviously well run and targeted, as was the UKIP one, and shows that there need not be no-go areas for parties if they work hard. It also shakes up the complacency of whichever ever parties traditionally dominate.<br />
A good 41% turnout in an interesting election, but still down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>Mount Charles</b> <br />
<br />
My prediction for this division was: "Too close to call, but the Lib Dems will lose it and Labour won't win it. Mr King as slight favourite". I am quite pleased with that as Mr King (Independent) did prove to be the winner after just missing out by 18 votes in 2009. He received 37% of the poll, slightly up on the 34.3% last time. The sitting councillor, Shirley Polmounter, elected as a Liberal Democrat but running as 'unspecified' this time, slipped to third with 18.1% of the vote.<br />
Snatching second place was the Conservatives' Anne Double who, with 26.2%, held on to most of her party's poll share (29.7%).<br />
In fourth place came Labour's Paul Roberts, who will probably be disappointed with taking 12.1% as, in an area like this, they should really be approaching 20%.<br />
The real disaster though is for the local Liberal Democrat's, who came fifth with only 6.6% of the vote, Mount Charles having been a strong area for them in the past. Local problems have been a drag on them and they will need to address this.<br />
In the end, the left-leaning candidacy ( "People before Profit and Practical Policies before Party Politics" was on his election website) of Mr King appealed to the voters of this area and there is a lesson for Labour here.<br />
<br />
<b>Newquay Central</b><br />
<br />
I was reluctant to choose a winner here but plumped for Councillor Geoff Brown to hold on for the Liberal Democrats; after a very close result, my reluctance proved to be correct.<br />
Mr Brown, having only taken the division by 54 votes in a six horse race in 2009 and with 28.8% of the vote, had a much healthier 52.3% in a two horse one, but only won with a 33 vote majority. <br />
The defeated Independent (who had recently joined the Green Party, but was not really known as such) was Steven Slade, who certainly managed to feed into the anti-party feeling.<br />
There was a depressingly low turnout of 18% and I question whether the decision of the Conservatives and Labour (and, for that matter, UKIP) to sit this election out here serves democracy, as many people seem to have stayed at home if they had no candidate.<br />
<br />
<b>Newquay Pentire</b><br />
<br />
A simple victory for sitting Lib Dem, Councillor Joanna Kenny, who greatly increased the number of votes she received over 2009 from 389 to 516 on a much reduced turnout, going from 36.3% share of the vote to a 64.8% one. with only two runners in this race (5 in 2009), the losers were probably the electorate, but the Conservatives were the official also-rans with 35.2% of the vote (up from 27.4% but, due to the fall in turnout, they received 13 less actual votes).<br />
With only minor boundary changes, the 26% turnout is quite depressing as 215 fewer people voted compared to 2009, a drop of around a fifth.<br />
<br />
<b>Newquay Treloggan</b><br />
<br />
I could almost repeat the same mantra as for the above divisions, just changing the percentages and figures.<br />
The 4 horse race in 2009 became a two horse one this time, with Councillor George Edwards having transferred to the Tretherras division, so Dave Sleeman retaining the seat for the Liberal Democrats over the returning Conservative challenger from 2009, Kevin Towill. The Liberal Democrat's 33.6% vote share in the old Treloggan division raised to 54%, whilst Mr Towill's 28.8% vote share is up to 46%, a 47 vote majority last time and now a 57 vote one.<br />
A very low 22% turnout - for analysis, I refer you to my above remarks, a much lower turnout across Newquay as a whole; also, it would appear, as I surmised, that a lack of English Democratic Party candidate this time, meant that their voters stayed at home.<br />
<br />
<b>Newquay Tretherras</b><br />
<br />
Due to the boundary changes, Councillor Patrick Lambshead for the Conservatives was challenged by Councillor George Edwards for the Liberal Democrats (see Treloggan above).<br />
I thought this would be very close and predicted it would just(!) be a Conservative hold. Well, so it proved with the three horse race here (with UKIP's Doris Latham making up the field) being incredibly close with only 32 votes between a victorious Mr Lambshead and a very decent third for Ms Latham.<br />
Mr Edwards was edged out by just 23 votes (35.6% to 32.8%), with Ms Latham on 31.7%,<br />
A slightly better (although still reduced) turnout of 27% perhaps reflecting the more interesting electoral battle.<br />
<br />
<b>Newquay Treviglas</b><br />
<br />
As if to make my point, with the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives joined by UKIP and Labour candidates, a much more interesting battle and a better turnout. An undefended division with the retirement of Independent councillor, Harry Heywood, the Conservatives should have been favourites here and I did predict that their candidate, Andy Hannan, would just gain it but thought the most likely beneficiary of any slip up would be the returning Liberal Democrat candidate, Sandy Carter. As I said in my overview last year, Mr Carter has an unfortunate habit of just missing out on election and thought that would be true this time, and so it was.<br />
In the end, it was a brilliant result for the unexpected UKIP victor, Mark Hicks who, with 30.3% of the poll, beat Mr Hannan by 29 votes and Mr Carter by 48. Mr Hannan saw the Tory share slip slightly, compared to 2009, to 27% (from 28.5%), whilst The Lib Dem's slipped to 24.9% from 26%.<br />
UKIP has no real history here and it was a stunning result with much of the vote of the former Independent appearing to switch straight across to Mr Hicks.<br />
For Labour, Joan Bowden pulled off a very good result, taking 17.8% of the vote (just 110 votes behind Mr Hicks) and obviously showing signs of solid Labour Party targeting in this one division in Newquay. She may well have robbed Mr Carter of the seat, or it is more likely that voters who have felt disenfranchised in the past turned out this time.<br />
The best turnout in Newquay of 28%, still depressingly low but maybe a message to the political parties to engage with the electorate.<br />
<br />
<b>Par and St Blazey Gate</b><br />
<br />
History suggested this would be a Liberal Democrat victory, and so it proved with Douglas Scrafton winning through for them with 39.6% and a 76 majority over Conservative candidate, Richard Pears (31.1%) and Deli-owning Independent, Alison Watkins, another 16 votes behind (29.3%).<br />
Perhaps closer than one would expect, probably due to the Independent candidate, but no big surprises here.<br />
29% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Penwithick and Boscoppa</b><br />
<br />
I predicted a Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall gain here as I saw this as being a very good prospect for the returning MK-PC candidate, Matthew Luke, building on his very strong third place in 2009, and so it proved with him gaining the division from the defending Liberal Democrat candidate, Christopher Rowe.<br />
Mr Rowe had only won in at the last elections with a 78 vote majority over the Conservatives and with 37.1% of the vote, so he must have known he was in some danger, not least because this was Mr Luke's third shot at it with a strong base. He managed to hold onto most of his vote share with 36.2% (from 37.1%), but that is still a slip back for the Liberal Democrats in a place where they used to poll much higher.<br />
In the absence of any other challenger from the left (whilst Labour did poorly last time, they have a traditionally strong voter base here) and with unhappiness with the Liberal Democrats, Mr Luke came through the middle from third place last time (26.8%) to grab victory with 43.6% of the votes cast. He has a not too comfortable 61 majority but might now be difficult to shift.<br />
The Conservatives came third here, pushed aside to take 20.2% (29.8% last time).<br />
A turnout of 23.7%, down by a quarter.<br />
<br />
<b>Roche</b><br />
<br />
For the third election, John Wood and Brian Higman faced each other in a county election, except that this time Mr Highman stood for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall.<br />
It went as predicted in this somewhat redrawn division on 2009: Councillor Wood (then leader of the Independent group, now Chairman of the Council) retained the seat with almost the same vote share of 52.6% (53.2% in 2009). Former mayor of Restormel, Mr Higman had held the old County division (in the Liberal Democrat interest) until 2009 and will be disappointed that he was not able to return to Truro. He did take 39.5% of the vote, 6% better than when he stood as a Liberal Democrat, but was still 112 votes short.<br />
Bringing up the rear was Conservative candidate Derek Walker, very much the also-ran with only 7.9% of the vote (13.4% in 2009).<br />
A 27.8% turnout, well down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>St Austell Bay</b><br />
<br />
A strange election here as the revised division had no defending councillor or party as the sitting Liberal Democrat councillor, John Oxenham, who had gained the seat in a byelection on a big swing from the Conservatives, did not defend the ward, nor did the party put up a candidate.<br />
I predicted a Conservative (re)gain for their candidate, Tom French, and he did prevail but only after a very strong challenge from local campaigner and Independent candidate, Anne Langley. Mr French won with 46.3% of the vote to Ms Langley's 43.4%, a majority of only 36 votes. This was a big drop from the Conservative share of former councillor Richard Stewart, whose ill-health resignation had caused the byelection. He had taken 59.4% of the vote in the old division.<br />
Ms Langley seems to have garnered votes from the Conservatives and the absent Liberal Democrat vote (33.5% in 2009), and almost pulled off a shock victory.<br />
For Labour, Maggi Pitches could only hope to avoid a squeeze and to rebuild the once decent level of Labour support. Her 10.3% is better than 4.9% last time, but she should have hoped for more and it would seem that Ms Langley was a more attractive choice for the non-Tory vote.<br />
A 34.1% turnout, which appears to be not too much lower than last time.<br />
<br />
<b>St Austell Bethel</b><br />
<br />
I wasn't able to predict this one and the result shows why. Liberal Democrat candidate Malcolm Brown was elected, but with only 27% of the poll and a 12 vote majority over Independent candidate Graham Walker, the sitting councillor elected in 2009 as a Liberal Democrat. Mr Walker had resigned from the Liberal Democratic Party on 21st May 2012, citing deep disappointment with national politics. Mr Walker had won with an 18 vote majority (and 35.1% of the vote) at the last elections, so must have been gutted to be on the other side of a narrow majority.<br />
Conservative Bob Davidson, the loser by 18 votes last time, was pushed further back this time with his party share falling from 33.7% to 19% this.<br />
In fourth place came UKIP's Ian Proctor, third last time, who managed to increase his vote slightly from 15.8% to 16.9% but was surely hoping for more.<br />
Labour's Brendan Parkinson will be pleased to have avoided a squeeze this time and to increase the Labour vote from 4.9% to 11.3%. The lack of a MK-PC candidate this time may have helped.<br />
Not a great turnout of 27.5% but not as bad as some places of a similar demographic.<br />
<br />
<b>St Austell, Gover</b><br />
<br />
I thought this would just be a gain by the 'unspecified' (Independent) candidate, Sandra Heyward, but she managed to poll better than I thought, taking 53.3% of the votes cast (44.6% last time), in her long-running electoral rivalry with defeated Tory councillor, Jenny Stewart. Last time, Ms Stewart won by 53 votes and took 49.2% of the votes, but fell back heavily this time to 32.5%.<br />
In the last election, Ms Heyward had been a Liberal Democrat candidate but by standing as an non-party candidate she successfully played on the unpopularity of the government. It seems to have helped that the Liberal Democrats didn't put up a candidate this time.<br />
For Labour, from a very poor 6.2% in 2009, they must have hoped that having no Liberal Democrat standing would bring them a healthy vote share, but Ann Phillips 14.1% is at least better than last time in a division where Labour have a weak recent electoral history.<br />
A 26.1% turnout, well down on last time.<br />
<br />
<b>St Austell Poltair</b><br />
<br />
As with the other St. Austell divisions, a very close run race in 2009, which probably shows why it was sensible for sitting Conservative councillor, Steve Double, now PPC for St Austell and Newquay constituency, not to defend the division - a loss wouldn't have been a good start.<br />
As predicted, Bugle sitting councillor Jackie Bull won this seat for the Liberal Democrats and more handily than I thought she might, taking a decent 35.6% of the vote in a strong field, increasing the Lib Dem share from 29.1% in 2009. She pushed charity worker Adam Harris, of the Conservatives, into second place with a majority of 93, which counts as decent in this division. Mr Harris saw his party's vote drop by 10% to 25.4%.<br />
In third place came former Liberal Democrat activist Derek Collins, now standing for Mebyob Kernow-Party of Cornwall since he fell out with the party over the national coalition. He achieved a very creditable 20.5% of the vote from a standing start for the party. He may well have gained many of the votes from the former Independent candidate who ran in 2009.<br />
For Labour, the only candidate who stood in 2009, Poltair Residents' Association chair Andrea Lanxon will be disappointed to have failed to move up the pecking order but will be delighted to take the Labour share of the vote up to 18.4% from 8.5% last time. <br />
The turnout of 26.5% was only down by about 5% compared to the last elections, perhaps a sign where a very competitive election can gain the electorate's interest. Still too low though.<br />
<br />
<b>St Blazey</b><br />
<br />
In this division my prediction was: Liberal Democrat hold with reduced vote share, Labour to take second place (maybe; probably not). I should have been less doubtful about Labour's second place as sitting Rod Taylor was re-elected as the Liberal Democrat councillor, with a much reduced 40.1% of the vote (55.6% in 2009). His majority was down from 289 to over the Tories to 124 over Labour. <br />
Labour's Stuart Wheeler will be pleased to have increased the Labour poll share to 24.1% (16.4%), as this is a seat in which Labour should really do better and where it's social policies should appeal: child poverty in this division was recently recorded as an appalling 25%, not quite the image that the home of the Eden Project would want to portray.<br />
In third place came Independent candidate Liam Bellamy, with a very decent 22.3% of the vote, almost the same as the 23% an Independent managed to gain in 2005. It would seem much of his vote came from the Conservative Party and Mr Taylor, although he may well have appealed to people who normally don't vote.<br />
The Conservatives had a very poor result, with Peter Sinclair seeing the vote more than halved from 28.1% to 13.6% and his party slipping from second to third place.<br />
The turnout was again down by more than a quarter to 24%, but at least it was a fairly interesting election.<br />
Certainly a division Labour should organise in more thoroughly as I believe it is a target for them. I do wonder how things might have gone with a UKIP candidate to pull in more votes.<br />
<br />
<b>St Columb Major</b> <br />
<br />
Whilst she only won with 32.7% of the vote last time, Councillor Harvey was never really likely to lose this division, not least in the absence of another Independent candidate. She was re-elected with 55.3% of the vote and a 382 majority over the Conservative candidate, John Bell. She seems comfortable here after her less than stellar victory last time.<br />
For Mr Bell, he saw his party's share of the vote slip back slightly from 22.7% to 19.2%. For the Liberal Democrats, Alvin Augustus Martin slightly increased the vote share to 18.2% (from 17.6%).<br />
Labour's Debbie Hopkins limped in last with 7.3%, which is at least better than the 3.6% last time; still pretty dreadful though. I suspect she'll do better as Labour's PPC for St. Austell and Newquay in 2015.<br />
This is a division with a long history of safely electing Independents and, when Ms Harvey beat the other Independent in 2009 to claim victory, she appears to have returned it to its normal safe position.<br />
Again, a big drop in turnout to 28.3%.<br />
<br />
<b>St Dennis and Nanpean</b><br />
<br />
A battle of two Independents who had formerly been Liberal Democrats on the old Borough council, it was always likely that defending councillor, Fred Greenslade, would be easily re-elected. It proved to be very easy, with Mr Greenslade taking a hefty 72.4% of the vote (slightly up from 72.8%) in 2009 and a 364 majority.<br />
Ms Wonnacott was roundly trounced and will doubtless be happily back running her dog-grooming business. She achieved only 21.5% of the poll.<br />
In an unsurprisingly bad third place in this area came the Conservative candidate, Barbara Hannan, who received a sorry 6% of the vote, down from 11.9% in 2009.<br />
The real story in this unchanged division, apart from the addition of Nanpean to the name, is the appalling turnout of 21%, a drop in actual votes of 267. This part of Cornwall has a real issue with engaging the voters.<br />
<br />
<b>St Enoder</b><br />
<br />
Only one result was ever possible here and a thumping one: Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall leader, Dick Cole, was re-elected with a crushing 86.9% of the vote over the brave, but ultimately hapless, Independent candidate, Elizabeth Hawken.<br />
Mr Cole's 708-vote majority is to be envied and it is to his credit that, in the absence of other party candidates, he managed to keep the turnout at 27%, only down by a fifth compared to others. Inevitability of result isn't particularly conducive to getting the vote out.<br />
<br />
<b>St Mawgan and Colan</b><br />
<br />
I expected the Conservative vote to drop here, but was sure that the defending Conservative Councillor, John Fitter, would be safely home. In a two horse race with MK-PC candidate, Rob Poole, it would seem that the Independent voter of 2009 (30.5%) stayed at home. His vote share rose to 76.1% from 53% although the number of votes he actually received dropped by 1 (588 from 589), a sign of the large drop in turnout. This is a story of differential turnout where Mr Fitter knows how to get his vote out.<br />
Mr Poole seems to have captured the Liberal Democrat vote from 2009, with him taking 185 votes, up 1 from the Lib Dem vote of 184 last time. The drop in votes is exactly the same as the votes that the Independent candidate Gary Redman in 2009 received: 339. I love stories with a certain amount of symmetry but it is a shocking 30.5% cut in the number of votes from 2009. A 28.3% turnout compared to over 40% last time. <br />
<br />
<b>St Mewan</b><br />
<br />
A very close run battle last time and a very close run one this time, I had this as too close to call but with the Lib Dem candiate, Janet Lockyer, slight favourites to retain it (former councillor, Baron (Robin) Teverson, of Tregony in the County of Cornwall now active in the Hose of Lords, stepped down this time).<br />
In the end, it was won by the Independent candidate Malcolm Harris winning 36.6% of the votes cast and a majority of 44 over the Conservative, John Kneller (32.2%, down from 36% in 2009).<br />
A disappointed Ms Lockyer was not far behind on 31.1%, a drop from 39%.<br />
Mr Harris had campaigned on the issue of the scale and location of the proposed green-field shopping centre at Coyte Farm and, given a strong constituency of people minded to vote for a non-party candidate (25% last time), he campaigned very well. I thought it possible the success of his campaign might decide things and it did, in his favour. Congratulations to him.<br />
Turnout: 32.7%, down by about a fifth on last time, and not a particularly good turnout in a fairly affluent area, for this part of Cornwall.<br />
<br />
<b>St Stephen-in-Brannel</b><br />
<br />
A straight fight (no Conservative, Liberal Democrat or Labour candidates this time) between the Independent sitting councillor Des Curnow and UKIP's Keith Hickman.<br />
Unsurprisingly, Mr Curnow was easily re-elected with 65.7% of the vote.<br />
Mr Hickman might have hoped to do better, but I suspect that 34.3% is the top vote UKIP can expect and would only win in a more competitive and divided field.<br />
A very disappointing 25.6% turnout, well down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<br />Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-87590942826692085112014-03-29T05:38:00.001-07:002014-03-29T05:38:58.813-07:00Lent, a time of repentence.Pope Francis shows that example is the way to touch people's hearts:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/03/28/pope-francis-breaks-tradition-and-stuns-thousands-with-bold-move/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=story&utm_campaign=ShareButtons">http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/03/28/pope-francis-breaks-tradition-and-stuns-thousands-with-bold-move/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=story&utm_campaign=ShareButtons</a>Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-69829057012765433032014-03-28T10:18:00.000-07:002014-03-28T10:18:29.777-07:00Cornwall Unitary Election results, 2013: North CornwallLast year I promised that, after the Unitary elections, I would return to review the Cornwall Council election results but, given a change of house (twice) and a change of work circumstances, I have not had the opportunity to do so. With things now being a little more settled, I will share some reflections.<br />
The 2009 elections had been an unmititigated disaster for Labour, deeply disappointing for the Liberal Democrats, comforting for the Conservatives and the Independents; for Mebyon Kernow, they had been less than stellar, although they had shown progress whilst UKIP and the Greens had nothing but dashed hopes.<br />
On the face of it, several parties can claim to be pleased with the results of 2013 but, as with all elections, the story is somewhat different when you look more closely. With Cornwall, things are never quite as simple as they first appear.<br />
I will look at the result in each division to reflect upon what happened (and how wrong, or right, my predictions were). As with most of those who had made educated guesses about the results, whilst I predicted UKIP would do well, I did not see what was coming and that was the biggest surprise of the elections for me. <br />
<br />
<br />
North Cornwall was a District Council, formed in 1974 which disappeared with the formation of the Cornwall Unitary Authority on 1st April, 2009. It covers the towns of Bude, Bodmin, Launceston, Wadebridge, Camelford and Padstow, with 62 parishes in all.<br />
<br />
District Council Election results, 2007:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 9988 34.5% 14 <br />
Conservative 8988 31.1% 6 <br />
Independent 8347 28.9% 15 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 1131 3.9% 1 <br />
Labour 270 0.9% 0 <br />
BNP 202 0.7% 0 <br />
<br />
2007 was a good election for the Liberal Democrats, gaining 3 seats and slightly increasing its share of the vote on 2003, in a traditionally strong area for them. They had candidates in 18 of the 23 wards (mix of 1-, 2- and 3-member wards).<br />
The Conservatives, despite only winning 6 seats, came second in turn of vote share with candiates in 20 of the 23 wards. They were up from 19.7% in 2003 and were just edged out in three of the seats.<br />
The Inependents were the big losers on 2003, dropping from 43.7% and in a clear lead to third with 28.9%. They lost control of the council but still managed to remain the largest party (though with 4 councillors fewer).<br />
Mebyon Kernow had only one candidate in 2003 with John Bolitho being elected in Bude; in 2007, with Johnn Bolitho not standing again, they lost Bude but gained a ward in Bodmin St. Mary's with Ernest Chapman being elected. Although they had two candidates this time, their vote share only rose to 3.9% from 2.7%.<br />
Labour, in an area where they are historically weak, had no candidates in 2003, but managed to field three candidates in the Wadebridge and Launceston wards, managing only 3.4% and 6.4% repectively.<br />
The BNP's Simon Bennett stood in Poughill and Stratton ward and received 202 votes (7.8%).<br />
Unitary Council Election results, 2009:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 11448 38.8% 10 <br />
Conservative 10740 36.4% 8 <br />
Independent 6037 20.5% 3 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 534 1.8% 0 <br />
UKIP 555 1.9% 0 <br />
BNP 86 0.3% 0 <br />
Green Party 82 0.3% 0<br />
<br />
At a time that The Liberal Democrats were suffering in other parts of Cornwall, they suffered some disappointments in the old North Cornwall district area in the first Unitary Council elections. Winning 10 of the 21 divisions, they topped the poll with 38.8% of the vote, but they would have been disappointed to have failed to win in Altarnun (falling to third place), Bodmin East (losing by 33 votes), Lanivet (falling to quite a distant second place), Padstow (a surprisingly heavy defeat), Poundstock (losing by 45 votes), <br />
For the Conservatives, excellent results in this electoral cycle, with them making strong advances at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and, in terms of votes, the Independents.<br />
The Independent candidates fared less well, standing in fewer divisions than they would have in the old wards, they only managed to take 20.5% of the vote and 3 out of 21 of the seats, the area becoming much more party politicised as the electoral cycle was approaching a genreal election in 2010.<br />
Mebyon Kernow fielded candidates in Bude South (formerly a strong area for them, they only took 7.8% of the vote), Poundstock (5.3%) and Padstow, where Ron Brown managed a decent 23.3% of the vote, apparently eating into the Liberal Democrat vote.<br />
The BNP stood a candidate in Padstow, taking 5.5% of the vote.<br />
The Green Party also fielded a candidate in Padstow and managed 5.3%<br />
Labour, a sign of their general weakness in this area, did not have a candidate in any of the divisions; given their results elsewhere, this was probably very sensible.<br />
<br />
Unitary Council Election results, 2013:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Liberal Democrat 10332 44.3% 15 <br />
Conservative 5518 23.7% 2 <br />
Independent 3615 15.5% 4 <br />
UKIP 2394 10.3% 0<br />
Mebyon Kernow-PC 521 2.2% 0 <br />
Labour 735 3.2% 0<br />
Green Party 185 0.8% 0<br />
<br />
Unlike the the disappointment the Liberal Democrats faced across much of Cornwall at these most recent Unitary elections, they polled very well here and gained five divisions. With 44.3% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats achieved their highest vote share in this area in many years, the only disappointment being the big drop in turnout that meant that their vote went up by 5.5% but they garnered 1,116 less actual votes than in 2009. They gained (bearing in mind boundary changes) Bodmin St. Petroc, Camelford, Lanivet and Blisland, Padstow and Poundstock, all the divisions they would have hoped to hold in 2009 (see above). They also came very close in the controversial election in Wadebridge East (see below), losing by only 4 votes (they were to go on to just gain this in the subsequent byelection).<br />
For the Conservatives, this was a terrible result, with the vote share dropping by over a third. They did not run candidates in Bodmin St. Mary's, Bodmin St. Petroc (where Conservative councillor Lance Kennedy quit and defended the division, unsuccessfully, as an Independent), Launceston South, Lanivet and Blisland (despite having won the seat in 2009), and St. Issey and St. Tudy. They generally suffered at the hands of UKIP (as well as others), most strikingly in recording a humiliating vote share in Bodmin St. Leonard of 5% (28.1% in 2009). They only bucked the trend in Altarnun, which they held with a slightly reduced share of the vote, and Wadebridge West, where Councillor Scott Mann pulled off a spectacular result. They were humiliated.<br />
For the Independents/Unspecified, it was a mixed result with them gaining a councillor overall, but losing more of the vote share, down to 15.5% this time. They held Stokeclimsland, Wadebridge East, and St. Teath and St. Breward, all with long-standing councillors whose personal votes are what carry them on, only gaining St. Minver and St. Endellion with Andy Penny gaining from the Tories with a 16 vote majority. One wonders about the future for non-party candidates in this part of Cornwall.<br />
For UKIP, not their best result in Cornwall, as they failed to dent the Liberal Democrat appeal.They only fought half the divisions, coming close only in Altarnun (80 votes behind), Lanivet and Blisland (129 votes behind).<br />
Labour stood candidates in five divisions this time, doing best in Wadebridge East with 12.1% of the vote and worst in Launceston Central with 9.2%. The party really ought to do better given the social needs of the area but at least they had candidates this time, unlike 2009.<br />
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, disppointment in that they failed to put up much of a challenge in the three divisions where they had a candidate, failing miserably in Bodmin St. Mary's where they once had a councillor (see below). They achieved around a sixth of the vote in the seats they contested.<br />
The Green Party had one candidate in Lanivet and Blisland, achieving 15.5% of the vote.<br />
<br />
<b>Alturnan</b><br />
<br />
This division has been normally represented, in its slightly varying guises by the Liberal Democrats, until it was gained in 2009 by the Conservatives with the Lib Dems falling to a surprise third place. Conservative Vivian Hall held onto the seat for The Conservatives with a slightly reduced vote share of 37% whilst the Liberal Democrats remained in third place (despite, or maybe because of, the candidature of the sitting Launceston South councillor, Sasha Gillard-Loft). In 2009, the Conservatives had just held off the challenge of Independent Brian Eno, but this time it was the UKIP challenger, John Knights, who proved the greatest threat. I predicted he would get a healthy vote share but didn't think he would threaten to take the seat - he wasn't far off though, taking 30% of the votes cast and failng only by 80 votes.<br />
I had predicted, although I clearly said "with little confidence", that the Lib Dems would regain the seat, basing this on a bounce back after the pretty appalling result for the Lib Dems in 2009, although I believed Labour's entry into the campaign might hinder that. Labour's Geoff Hale will be happy with the 111 votes gained and 11% vote share, I guess the Lib Dems less so, although it wouldn't have given them the seat even if the votes had gone their way otherwise. <br />
What happened? The Conservatives held on much better then one might have expected, given that the sitting councillor had stood down, and UKIP, with no electoral history to speak of, were the surprise package. It would seem that Mr Knights took votes that were once with the Independent candidate as well as a handful of Tory votes; who is to say what the result might have been if it had been known how close UKIP would come to taking the Division?<br />
<br />
<b>Bodmin St. Leonard</b><br />
<br />
A safe, indeed impressive, Lib Dem hold here with Cllr Pat Rogerson garnering a excellent 62% of the vote. As I predicted at the time, UKIP were always likely to be a hindrance to the Conservatives, I had realised just how much of one - the Conservative vote share collapsed to 5% with their candidate, Mr Scoffham, reduced to a humiliating 4th place.<br />
Whilst UKIP's Chris Wallis posed no threat to Cllr Rogerson, he took a creditable 24% of the vote and a clear second place. Labour's David Acton will be disappointed to have only taken 9% of the vote but has the comfort of knowing he did not place last. I thought that Councillor Rogerson might be a little unnecessarily worried by Labour's entrance into the race but it would appear that the strong vote share for the Independent in 2009 swung mostly behind her whilst the Conservatives can only go home and lick their wounds.<br />
I had predicted a Lib Dem hold.<br />
<br />
<b>Bodmin St. Mary's</b><br />
<br />
This is a seat that I thought might be a challenge for the Lib Dems and predicted it as being too close to call between them and Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall (MK-PC). I had predicated this on the past success of MK-PC in the 2007 district council elections. Well, more fool me to try to make that kind of normal political assessment in a north Cornish town. Local connections matter here and, despite the apparently strong local connections of MK-PC's Roger Lashbrook, it was Cllr Kerridge who was comfortably re-elected. Whilst her vote share was down on 2009 when it was a two-horse race with the Conservatives, her 56.4% share of the vote is a great achievement.<br />
In the end, it was UKIP's Peter Walter's who proved the main - if distant - challenger, soaking up the majority of the Tory vote (as the Conservatives's failed to field a candidate) to achieve 19.9%, with MK-PC in third with 16.5%.<br />
Labour's Janet Hulme will be disappointed to have taken only 7.2% of the vote, but at least she flew the flag.<br />
A 27.4% turnout, but not massively down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>Bodmin St. Petroc</b><br />
<br />
An interesting election battle here with the sitting Conservative and former Cornwall Cabiner member, Lance Kennedy, fighting to hold his seat against former Cllr Steve Rogerson who had only lost the Division by 33 votes in 2009. <br />
As predicted, Mr Rogerson was re-elected and he comfortably increased his party's vote share (48.4% to 56.1%); a very comfortable majority of 461 for Mr Rogerson.<br />
Mr Kennedy quit the Conservative party two months before these elections in protest at the decision of the Council to vote for a zero percent rise in Council Tax. The Cabinet Member for community safety, public protection and waste management, he might have hoped to do better, in his new guise as an Independent, than coming third with only 15.6% (51.6% when elected).<br />
MK-PC's John Gibb's will be pleased with his party's 125 vote share (12%).<br />
Voter's don't like division and the fallouts at County Hall cannot have been helpful to Mr Kennedy. It would appear that much of his vote went straight across to Cllr Rogerson and one would hope that a lesson is learnt.<br />
I expressed the hope in my commentary that an increased number of candidates might increase the turnout, and it appears that it may have done so. The division has been slightly altered from the old East one but it seems that the 29.6% turnout is slightly up on 2009. Still disappointing though.<br />
<br />
<b>Bude</b><br />
<br />
Nothing to see here. As predicted, in Cornwall's only two member division, the Lib Dem's Cllr's David Parsons and Nigel Pearce were comfortably re-elected with, between them, 85.4% of the vote. The sole challenger, Conservative (former Independent) Louise Emo managed only 14.6%. Not a good advert for representative democracy, you'd have thought another candidate could have been found.<br />
The only real thing of note is that the turnout was 50.4%, which may be down from last time but it is hard to judge after the boudary revisions. Very nice to see over 50% of the electorate voting.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Camelford</b><br />
<br />
Well, what can one say - my prediction was "too close to call, for now" and I never called it. As it proved, this was a very tight race and I believed, popular as he was, that sitting Conservative Cllr Keith Goodenough would find it hard to hold against Lib Dem challenger, Rob Rotchell. Cllr Goodenough has always been in tight races but to lose by 7 votes must really hurt - the 'if only my knocking up effort had been good enough' (bad pun intended), but such is democracy.<br />
A disappointing turnout of 28.8%, a slightly larger division casting over 300 fewer votes.<br />
<br />
<b>Grenville and Stratton</b><br />
<br />
As predicted, a safe Liberal Democrat hold in a strong division for them. Cllr Dolphin's 68.2% will give her much to shout about, so fulfilling an election pledge. The Conservative's Shorne Tilbey never really had a chance.<br />
The old Flexbury and Poughill division was much more fun.<br />
A 36.8% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Lanivet and Blisland</b><br />
<br />
One of those seats where the defending party, the Conservatives, failed to put up a candidate to defend. I predicted a Liberal Democrat gain, and so it proved with the now Cllr Chris Batters taking a comfortable 47.5%, almost doubling the Lib Dem share from 2009.<br />
In the absence of the Conservatives, UKIP's Tom Hobbs 36% was very healthy and just short of the Conservative vote in 2009. UKIP don't seem to have been too successful with other party's voters here. The Green's Steve Haynes had every reason to be happy with his 15.5% of the vote, having had to campaign with little help. <br />
A 34.7% turnout, but quite a cut from 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>Launceston Central</b><br />
<br />
This was never going to be anything but a very safe hold for the Liberal Democrats and so it proved with Cllr Folkes taking 70.8% of the vote, a 7% increase since 2009. His Conservative challenger, Poundstock Cllr Phil Tucker (not sure why he changed to here), saw the Tory vote share more than halved to 17.2%. Bringing up the rear in the third place was Labour's Kris Roberts, who will be delighted to have recorded a Labour vote of 12%.<br />
What explains the vote? I expect that the Lib Dem vote rose partly due to Cllr Folkes having an incumbancy bounce, with Cllr Tucker representing an unpopular local coalition and changing division and losing most votes to the Lib Dems whilst Labour seem to have managed to bring out voters who may normally not vote, have moved some across from the Lib Dems in the general vote churn and even some from the Tories. The low 25.9% turnout is not good.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Launceston North and North Petherwin</b><br />
<br />
As predicted, a safe Lib Dem hold with Cllr Adam Paynter suffering only a 5.5% drop in his vote share against 4 other candidates (as opposed to two in 2009). The Conservatives will undoubtedly be deeply disappointed to have been pushed into a clear third place by UKIP with Graham Ford taking 24.4% of the vote to Bill Sowerby's 13.8%, a shattering drop of over 29% from 2009. The two Independent candidates hardly registered with Max Hailey receiving 5.3% to the gloriously named Krystyna Zdan-Michajlowicz's 4.9%.<br />
This kind of result is one that can offer only a worrying picture to the Conservatives as, even though there is the mid-term blues and the unpopular local administration to take into account, this is a shattering result losing so many votes to UKIP who have some small history in this Division.<br />
A 39.6% turnout, down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>Launceston South</b><br />
<br />
I thought this might be close, but predicted a Lib Dem hold. I was half right - it was a fairly safe hold in the end with Jade Farrington, their new candidate ( Cllr Gillard-loft and her problems having flown to Alturnan), achieving 45.5% of the vote, slightly up on 2009.<br />
I thought it was possible that Independent candidate John Conway (the Conservative candidate in 2009) might run the Lib Dems close, but it was UKIP's James Wonnacott who managed to snatch second place with just over 24% of the vote - I had predicted they would ger a "fairly healthy vote" without winning, but I had thought that Ms Farrington would do somewhat worse and Mr Conway somewhat better. <br />
Labour's Susan Alfar will perhaps be disappointed with 9.2% of the vote, but at least the party had a candidate, unlike the Conservatives. I predicted that "The real issue is how well UKIP will do." I was sort of right, and also wrong. <br />
A 35.1% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Padstow</b><br />
<br />
I predicted a close finish in this two horse race between sitting Cllr Stephen Rushworth and Lib Dem challenger Richard Buscombe. The decision of MK-PC and the Greens to not field a candidate was obviously to maximise the chances against the Conservatives but I still believe that MK-PC had as good a chance here of taking the seat and, in a straight fight, I think they'd have beaten the Tories handily. As it happens, now Cllr Buscombe fared pretty well with a majority of 87 which I suggested I was leaning towards in my then post.<br />
38.5% turnout, significantly down on the last elections.<br />
<br />
<b>Poundstock</b><br />
<br />
I predicted that, on balance, the Lib Dem's candidate, Nicky Chopak, would gain this seat but it was very close with a majority of only 38 over Conservative Andrew Ades, replacing sitting councillor Phil Tucker who inexplicably moved to the Lib Dem stronghold of Launceston Central. I think he will regret this now as incumbency might well have saved him this seat (of course, he might have been personally unpopular in the area, who knows?). MK-PC's Paul Sousek will be happy to have trebled his party's vote share to 15.7% whilst Independent, former UKIP, candidate Rupert Powell must be filled with "what ifs?" after seeing his former party's advances elsewhere.<br />
36.2% turnout, down by just under 20%.<br />
<br />
<b>St. Issey and St. Tudy</b><br />
<br />
In 2009, Liberal Democrat Leader Cllr Jeremy Rowe, held his seat by only 76 votes in a straight fight against the Conservatives. On this occasion, on a lower number of votes cast, he won by 75 votes over the spirited Independent Emma Karenza Hambly who campaigned in oppostion to what she described as "inappropriate renewable energy projects" that she believes are "resulting in the desecration of Cornwall's most valuable asset...its landscape". Holding the Liberal Democrats particularly responsible she very nearly achieved a 'decapitation' success that few, myself included, saw coming. Her 46.7% vote share was impressive, obviously making clear a deep sense of unhappiness with the political class.<br />
I predicted Cllr Rowe would hold his seat, I was very nearly wrong.<br />
33.5% turnout, well down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>St. Minver and St. Endellion</b><br />
<br />
I predicted that this would be a two-horse race between sitting Conservative Cllr Brian Gisbourne and Independent candidate Alan Penny, but I just gave it to Cllr Gisbourne thus showing why I don't bet on horse-races. Mr Penny just gained the seat by 16 votes (1.5%) over the defending councillor.<br />
Liberal Democrat Ed Headley-Hughes, about whom I could discover nothing, garnered 17.2% of the vote and trailed in a distant third. <br />
A decent 42.6% turnout, but down on 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>St. Teath and St. Breward</b><br />
<br />
John Lugg was safely re-elected as an 'Unspecified' candidate, although his share of the vote was down from the 65.1% he received in the old St. Teath division to 51.5% on this occasion. Most of this will be down to the intervention of the Liberal Democrats (who didn't have a candidate in 2009), although I would have expected their standard-bearer, Eddie Jones, to have done somewhat better than 31.8%.<br />
For the Conservatives, Henry Hine saw their share of the vote fall to 16.8% from the 34.9% in 2009.<br />
A 38.1% turnout.<br />
<br />
<b>Stokeclimsland</b><br />
<br />
Whilst I saw this as an easy Independent hold, I expected that Councillor Neil Burden, as Deputy Leader of the then Council Administration and having had a minor 'mis-speak' concerning children with special needs (for which he unreservedly apologised), might have a bit of a shake-up, but he didn't. Comfortably holding onto the substantially redrawn Division with a hefty 62% of the vote, Cllr Burden had a massive (in UA election terms) majority of 538 over the wonderfully-named Antonia Mary Damaris Willis of UKIP, who claimed 20.8%. The Conservatives (9.5%) and Liberal Democrats (7.7%) trailed in a distant third and fourth.<br />
Another 42.6% turnout. The boundary changes were significant but the number of voters exchanged were about the same, so we can surmise a drop in turnout of just under a fifth.<br />
<br />
<b>Tintagel</b><br />
<br />
A bizarre story brewed here when it was discovered that the UKIP challenger, Susan Bowen, who had only joined the party about 6 weeks before the election, had recently been a member of the BNP, something specifically banned by UKIP - it was a sign of the foolishness of not vetting their candidates in the haste to get as many standing as possible. Ms Bowen stopped campaigning but, with her name still on the ballot paper, I speculated that she might still do quite well.<br />
The re-elected councillor, Liberal Democrat councillor Glenton Brown, comfortably increasing his share of the vote since 2009 from 44.8% to 57.1%, will be happy with his 351 majority. Ms Bowen came in second with 26.9% (the Independent main challenger in 2009 not standing this time), perhaps surprisingly under the circumstances but she certainly represented an opportunty to express an 'anti-politics as normal' vote.<br />
In the third place came the Conservative candidate, Paul Charlesworth, whose vote share fell sharply from 27.2% to 15.9%. He was perhaps the victim of those unhappy with Ms Bowen voting for Mr Brown to ensure she was not elected and also an increasingly euro-sceptic electorate voting for UKIP.<br />
A turnout of 36.1%, heavily down on 2009 when it was around 50%.<br />
<br />
<b>Wadebridge East</b><br />
<br />
The most controversial of all of the election battles took place in this division with sitting Independent Councillor Collin Brewer in the centre of a storm after telling a member of Disability Cornwall at a stall in County Hall that "disabled children cost the council too much money and should be put down". Finally resigning his seat on 1st March 2013, he decided to defend it again. He faced five challengers, including Sarah Maguire, the young mother who led the local campaign for his resignation, standing in the Independent interest. At the time, I said that the result would be too close to call and didn't call it but asked the question of Councillor Brewer's chances: "will his support stay solid or will the divided opposition allow him to lose a lot of support and still win?" The latter was the case and Cllr Brewer held his seat with 25.2% of the vote, only 4 votes more than Liberal Democrat Steve Knightley. Ironically, Ms Maguire's entrance into the race where she came 6th, garnering a respectable 146 votes (11%) probably saved Mr Brewer.<br />
The results for the UKIP (15.6%), Labour (12.1%) and Conservative (11.3%) candidates were somewhat overlooked in the aftermath, but it was satisfactory for the first two and pretty disasterous for the Tories, who saw their vote share slashed by two thirds. <br />
The national furore surrounding the result was quite astonishing and the embattled councillor resigned from the Authority for a final time after he was found to have breached Cornwall Council's Members' Code of Conduct following a second complaint after the re-elected Councillor had given a telephone interview to the Disabilty News Network. He resigned on 10th July 2013.<br />
At the subsequent byelection, held on 5th September 2013, the runner-up from May, Liberal Democrat Stepehen Knightley gained the Division with 31.8% of the vote and by a tiny majority of 9 over Independent candidate, Tony Rush.<br />
A 42.3% turnout, almost identical to the 2009 turnout, with the interest in the election being very high.<br />
<br />
<b>Wadebridge West</b><br />
<br />
As predicted, an easy hold by defending Conservative Cllr Scott Mann, who took a comfortable 65.5% of the votes cast, a 5.6% increase over 2009 and giving him a very handsome majority of 522; this was surely helped by the lack of a UKIP candidate this time (in 2009, they managed just under 15% of the vote). Former postman Cllr Mann is the Conservative PPC for North Cornwall, so will see this as a good base for him. In a distant second on 24.3% of the vote was the Liberal Democrat's Elliot Osbourne, who managed to maintain the poll share, with it slipping by only 1% since 2009. In the Labour (and Co-operative) Party's interest, John Whitby will have found some satisfaction with 10.2% of the vote. <br />
A 41.6% turnout, again almost identical to 2009, with the interest in the next door election probably having a knock-on effect in turnout here.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-64008445219839813292014-03-27T09:57:00.000-07:002014-03-28T10:22:03.636-07:00The local elections are coming!Having finally finished my analysis of last year's Cornwall Unitary Authority election results, I will now shift my attention to the local elections to be held this May, with particular attention to Stockport, Portsmouth, Rochdale and my new home of Blackburn.<br />
In Rochdale, the main point of interest will be to see if the Liberal Democrats are able to hold any of the seats they are defending after the last two electoral cycles completely wiped them out; they will be particularly keen to protect their new PPC for Rochdale constituency, Andy Kelly (also their group leader on the council), as he defends the Milnrow and Newhey ward, as well as Peter Rush in Heywood North. I believe they only have any hope of victory in those two wards, the other three are lost to them.<br />
For the Conservatives, they will want to firmly position themselves as Labour's main opposition and to remove the Liberal Democrats as a challenge in their wards. They are under threat from Labour in Littleborough Lakeside and South Middleton wards, but are favourites to gain Norden from Wera Hobhouse (Lib Dem).<br />
Labour will want to finish the Liberal Democrats off - not subtle, but true.<br />
In Stockport, the question will be whether Labour can close the gap on the Liberal Democrats by gaining Offerton (where the Liberal Democrat defected to the Tories), Manor, Heatons North, Bredbury and Woodley, and Davenport and Cale Green (although the sitting councillor, David White, defected to Labour, he is not defending the seat and it would be a Labour gain on 2010). It is a tall order for Labour, and they will need the Conservatives to gain a couple of seats from the Liberal Democrats to make it possible.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, the test is a simple one, to prove that they have stemmed the tide of unhappiness and to hold onto their seats. Labour have topped the poll in terms of votes cast in both 2011 and 2012 and the Lib Dems would like to reclaim that position.<br />
For the Conservatives, they will want to break out of their Bramhall redoubt and re-establish themselves as a major party in the borough by gaining Bredbury Green and Romiley, Hazel Grove, Cheadle and Gatley, but they are doomed in Heatons North.<br />
In Portsmouth, the issue will be whether the bad publicity surrounding Portsmouth South MP, Mike Hancock, and any perception that the local Liberal Democrats have been overzealous in their defence of him, will finally undermine their remarkable resilience in Portsmouth elections. <br />
Labour will be pushing hard to take seats where they came close in 2012: Cosham - 43 votes behind (where the newly elected Lib Dem in 2012 defected to Labour last year), Hilsea - 74 votes, Nelson (where they gained a seat in 2012). They will also be interested to see if they can improve their positions in Central Southsea, Charles Dickens and Fratton (where the now Independent councillor Mike Hancock is up for election, with no Liberal Democrat opponent). They will want to improve their position in wards that make up the Portsmouth North constituency, which they hope to regain from the Conservatives at the next General Election.<br />
For the Conservatives, they will want to hold on in Cosham, Copnor, Eastney and Craneswater, as well as closing the gap in St. Jude and St. Thomas. They will also want to strengthen their position in both parliamentary constituencies, not lest in Portsmouth South where they will hope to gain from any fallout from Mr Hancock's position.<br />
The Liberal Democrats in Portsmouth are a phenomenon and only a fool would write them off. Labour would be advised to target very narrowly.<br />
In Blackburn, well, I don't know just yet but I am learning.<br />
I look forward to posting about these elections over the next weeks.Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1701192378438673089.post-80387389669649844412014-03-26T10:58:00.000-07:002014-03-27T06:56:01.101-07:00Cornwall Unitary Election Results, 2013: CarrickAs with my overview of the forthcoming elections last April, I decided it would be fun to follow (as far as possible) the old district and borough boundaries.<br />
The last time that local council elections took place in the now defunct (as of 2009) Carrick District Council, these were the results:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Conservative 9479 35.5% 19 <br />
Liberal Democrat 9044 33.9% 18 <br />
Independent 4172 15.6% 8 <br />
Labour 1861 7.0% 1 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 1163 4.4% 0 <br />
UKIP 767 2.9% 1 <br />
Liberal Party 225 0.8% 0 <br />
<br />
The Conservatives had an excellent election in 2007, gaining seven seats since 2003's district council elections and increasing the vote by 8.4%. They topped the poll and replaced the Liberal Democrats as the largest party on the council. They had candidates in 18 of the wards (1,- 2- and 3-member wards) this time, whereas they only had candidates in 13 at the last elections.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, they suffered painful losses across the district and lost control of the council. The Liberal Democrats lost eleven councillors in all in what had been a stronghold for them, with their vote-share falling from 39% to 33.9%. They were most damaged in Falmouth, remaining fairly strong in the Truro area.<br />
Those running as Independent candidates took eight seats, two more than in 2008, gaining two in Trescobeas and one in Boslowick (losing one in Penryn to the Tories).<br />
For Labour, no great joy here, putting candidates up in 10 wards (up from seven in 2003), they saw their vote share fall from 8.6% to 7% with them only winning in the Falmouth ward of Penwerris with stlwart councillor, Gerald Chin-Quee. <br />
Mebyon Kernow only fielded candidates in 5 wards (as opposed to 8 in 2003), and did not come close to taking any of the seats. Their vote share fell from 7.5% to 4.4%.<br />
UKIP had only one candidate, who managed to be elected to the last seat in the three-member Boslowick ward in Falmouth. An unexpected success at the time and very well done.<br />
The Liberal Party had two candidates, one in Mylor and one in Carland, neither of them doing particularly well.<br />
<br />
In 2009, the Unitary Council replaced the County and District/Borough Councils and the results for what would have been the old district were:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats <br />
Conservative 9398 31.5% 7 <br />
Independent 9302 31.2% 9 <br />
Liberal Democrat 7567 25.3% 5<br />
Labour 1594 5.3% 0 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 1376 4.6% 0 <br />
Green Party 384 1.3% 0<br />
Liberal Party 172 0.6% 0<br />
BNP 58 0.2% 0 <br />
<br />
A disappointing result for the Liberal Democrats, they fought every division and still fell into a distant third place with just over a quarter of the vote, they were unfortunate to just miss out in the Falmouth divisions of Arewenack (by 13 votes) and Penwerris (60 votes), as well as Truro Trehaverne (40 votes behind, in third place). Worryingly for them, they were not close in any of the other divisions.<br />
The Conservative Party also fought every division and just topped the poll over those running as Independents. 7 councillors was not a bad haul and they came close in Falmouth Arewenack (23 votes behind, in third place) and Threemilestone and Gloweth (72 votes). It was a good election for the Conservatives and perhaps, with the Liberal Democrat weakness, showed the danger the Truro and Falmouth parliamentary seat was in come 2010.<br />
Those who ran as Independents had an excellent election, winning 9 of the 17 divisions they contested and just failing to overtake the Tories in vote share. An Independent just failed to take Truro Trehaverne by 6 votes. Strong local campaigns, allied to unhappiness with the Liberal Democrats in the old county council and Labour in government certainly seems to have put the wind beneath the wings of those running outside of the party camps.<br />
For Labour, an absolute disaster with them only polling anywhere near to decent in Falmouth Penwerris (20.3% and in third place) where the redoutable Gerald Chin-Quee was defeated. An absolutely shattering series of results for Labour in the 20 divisions in which it competed, managing only 5.3% of the total poll in the old Carrick district.<br />
Mebyon Kernow competed in 11 of the divisions and made some progress, it would appear, from the unhappiness with the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. They only came close in Falmouth Arewenack (80 votes behind, in 4th place) but, as can be seen by how many came close, that reflects the very divided result in that division. Their best showing was in Truro Tregolls, where the Loic Rich achieved a 21.5% vote share, but never really threatened to take the seat. Not really a strong area for the party, managing 4.6% of the total vote.<br />
The Green Party stood in 4 divisions polling best in Falmouth Penwerris (11.3%) and Truro Boscowan (10.6%).<br />
The Liberal Party had candidates in only two divisions - Mouth Hawke and Portreath (5.5%) and Newlyn and Goonhavern (6.1%) - where they distinguished themselves by not doing worse than the hapless Labour candidates.<br />
The BNP had one candidate, in Threemilestone and Gloweth , where she only managed to achieve 5.1% of the vote - but still finished ahead of Labour.<br />
<br />
Coming to the 2013 Unitary Elections:<br />
<br />
Party Votes Percent Seats<br />
Independent 8136 32.2% 8<br />
Conservative 6437 25.5% 8 <br />
Liberal Democrat 4173 16.5% 3 <br />
Labour 2843 11.2% 2 <br />
UKIP 2238 8.9% 0 <br />
Mebyon Kernow 842 3.3% 0 <br />
Green Party 615 2.4% 0<br />
<br />
The biggest changes in the 2013 elections were due to the entrance of the UKIP candidates in 11 contests, although they only came sort of close in Falmouth Boslowick (52 votes behind the winner, but in 4th place) and Penryn East and Mylor (75 behind the winner, but in 4th place). They made fairly decent inroads in terms of votes but never really came close to being major players across the area.<br />
The Liberal Democrats fought 15 divisions, 6 less than in 2009, which explains most, if not quite all, of the fall in their vote share. In Truro (including Threemilestone and Gloweth), they lost 2 of the seats they were defending, although Councillor Rob Nolan had a very comfortable victory in Redannick, and it is a worrying sign for the party that this formerly reliable area for them is slipping further away from their grasp. A slip from 5 divisions to 3 is not good for them.<br />
For Labour, a tale of two ends of the district, with advances in Falmouth establishing the party as a major player here and the election of Hanna Toms and, former MP, Cathy Anderton on big swings showing the power of good campaigns.<br />
In Truro, Labour failed to make much impact, despite the promising signs in a series of local byelections. One would assume that the absence of strong campaigning due to concentration being elsewhere would account for this. Also, the unfortunate fallout with former Labour Parliamentary candidate, Dr Charlotte MacKenzie, who ran as an Independent and coming a decent second in Trehaverne, won't have helped. At these elections, Labour ran candidates in every division and this will account for some of the increased vote share (they only fought 11 divisions in 2009), but 5.3% to 11.2% will bring them some satisfaction.<br />
The Conservatives only ran in 18 divisions this time (all 21 last), and will be happy to have ended up with 8 seats rather than the 7 in 2009, even though their vote share slipped from 31.5% to 25.5%. They campaigned very well on the whole and were able to gain Falmouth Boslowick from the Independent Councillor, Steve Eva, due to a very split vote.<br />
For the Independent cause, a slight increase in the vote share and a surprising victory for Loic Rich in Truro<br />
<br />
<strong>Chacewater</strong>, <strong>Kenwyn</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Baldhu</strong><br />
<br />
Whilst it won't be quite so exact, it seems that defending Conservative, Councillor John Dyer, has been the only candidate really affected by the entrance of a UKIP candidate as the drop in his poll-share from 68.1% to 52.3% is not much more than the 14.3% that UKIP's Michael Warren gained. <br />
I doubt it will worry the good councillor too much as he has a comfortable 270 majority over second place Independent candidate, Ross Treseder, who seems to have garner most of the Lib Dem vote from 2009 (25.6%).<br />
In last place, unsurprisingly, came Labour's Peggy Wicks, who only managed to raise the Labour vote from the doldrums of 5.2% to a not much more comfortable 7.5%. I get the feeling that Labour didn't do much campaigning in the Truro end of the area.<br />
<br />
<strong>Falmouth</strong> <strong>Arwenack</strong><br />
<br />
Unsurprisingly, and as predicted, a safe hold here for Conservative candidate Geoffrey Evans. In 2009, in the then named Gyllyngvase Division, Councillor Evans was challened by a renegade Tory called Ian Laws who came in a distant second place. In his absense, Mr Laws has seen a massive increase in his share of the vote to 68.9% of the vote (from 43.9% in the old Division in 2009).<br />
After a fairly crowded field of candidates last time (6), the only other challengers this time were Labour's Robin Johnson and the Liberal Democrat's Catherine Thornhill. Labour gained the silver in this race, coming in second with 19.9% of the vote, managing to pick up the former Mebyon Kernow vote and some of the Lib Dems to increase form 8.5%.<br />
For the Liberal Democrats, Ms Thornhill will be disappointed to have picked up only 11.3% of the vote and come in behind Labour.<br />
<br />
<strong>Falmouth</strong> <strong>Boslowick</strong><br />
<br />
In the old Arnewack division, Independent councillor Steve Eva won with only 24.3% of the votes cast and a majority of 13. I had no idea who would win this Division and I was right to back out of guessing as it was won this time with a vote share of only 23 (twenty-three)%.<br />
The victor this time was the Conservative Alan Jewell who edged out Mr Eva (21.9%)by 15 votes , Liberal Democrat Roger Bonney (20.9%) by 27 votes and UKIP's Mairi Hayworth (18.9%) by 52 votes. Indeed, Labour's Nicholas Jemmett (15.3%) was only 97 votes behind. I guess this is the mst balanced result in Cornwall, as it pretty much was in 2009.<br />
Who will be the most disappointed? Mr Eva lost, so probably him, thoguh I guess he saw it coming, if not so close a result. Mr Bonney should really have taken this Division for the Liberal Democrats so suggests how far they have yet to come from 2009 in much of Cornwall. In the absense of Mebyon Kernow, both Mr Bonney and Labour's Mr Jemmett will have hoped to do better (though I accept that Labour's eyes were on other Falmouth battles). UKIP have a history here and, as with other places in Cornwall where they have run before, they seem to do less well where they are not such a novelty.<br />
<br />
<strong>Falmouth</strong> <strong>Penwerris</strong><br />
<br />
I feel fairly please with myself here in that I predicted a Labour gain - fair enough, it was a Labour seat for a long time but that means nothing in Cornwall at these elections. <br />
Labour worked this Division very hard and, although defending Independent councillor Grenville Chappel managed to hold on to his vote share of 28.4%, he was overtaken by Labour's impressive campaigner Hanna Toms, who managed to add 15.5% on the Labour vote to take the seat with a 78 majority, from third place in 2009.<br />
I suspect Mr Chappel saw the writing on the wall as his small majority (56) and vote share were always liely to be at risk. Last time, the Liberal Democrats were the main challengers but this time they failed to put up a candidate in a place that they have a strong electoral history. However, former Liberal Democrat district councillor John Body did stand as an Independent and achieved a crditable 18.4% of the vote.<br />
Coming in last place was UKIP's Amanda Wyner, who managed a 17% share of the vote.<br />
A disappointing 28% turnout though. These turnouts are common in the urban areas of Cornwall.<br />
<br />
<strong>Falmouth</strong> <strong>Smithick</strong><br />
<br />
I stated that I had no idea how this vote would go, although I saw that Labour had a chance with former MP Candy Atherton standing. She stuck her neck out as Labour's vote here in 2009 was abysmal (5.8%) although they had a history of polling strongly without winning.<br />
Well, give her credit as she pulled off a stunning victory, raising the Labour vote to 33.4% and, in a very split field, achieving a flattering 160 majority.<br />
In second place came town councillor Diana Merrett in the Independent cause, one of three Independents trying to claim the former (not defending) Independent councillor Mike Varney's mantle.<br />
The Liberal Democrat's 19-year old candidate, Kenny Edwards, came in third with 16.3%, a big drop from the 27% of former county councillor Roger Bonney in 2009 but nothing to be ashamed of in the face of the undoubtedly professional and strong campaign of Ms Atherton.<br />
For the Conservatives, Liz Ashworth came in next with a much reduced 13.8%, followed by Independent candidates Chris Smith (12.2%) and Tony Canton (7.8%).<br />
Again, a not very healthy 28% turnout but higher than some it is better where the candidates/parties work harder.<br />
<br />
<strong>Falmouth</strong> <strong>Trescobeas</strong><br />
<br />
My Prediction for this division was "Independent Saunby hold (but not by as much, and second place might be interesting)" and I am pretty happy with that. Cllr. Saunby managed to hold onto most of his vote share (38.4% from 41.7% in 2009) and it was Labour's Brod Ross who managed to bring the party from fifth place and 7.8% in 2009 to second place and 23.7% this time. A pretty remarkable result and a sign of the much more professional Labour Party team in Falmouth in these Unitary elections. Mr Ross, husband of former MP and now Labour councillor for Smithick, Candy Atherton, will be happy with this result.<br />
In third place came UKIP's Carole Douglas who was testing the water for the party this time. I said she should have some success but she might be disappointed with only taking 12.8% of the vote.<br />
Surely disappointed will have been experienced campaigner Vicky Eva to drop from second place in 2009 to fourth this time (22.1% to 11.1%).<br />
The Conservative candidate, local businessman Peter Williams, won't have expected much but it is a poor fifth for them with only 7.8% of the vote (13.5% in 2009). The Green's Euan McPhee was firmly overshadowed in this race and managed only 3.6% of the vote. <br />
Surely though, the real shocker is for the Liberal Democrats who not only trailed in seventh (and last) but managed to garner only 2.5% of the vote from 14.9% in 2009.<br />
A more healthy 33% turnout here, again, I would suggest, a sign of a good campaign.<br />
<br />
<strong>Feock</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Playing</strong> <strong>Place</strong><br />
<br />
After the stepping down of Cornwall Council leader and sitting councillor Jim Currie after a pretty torrid time in County Hall, I thought this would be a tough result to predict but in the end the Conservative candidate, Steve Chamberlain, managed to achieve a small swing from Independent to Tory (0.2%) whilst increasing the vote share to 44% (40.3% in 2009).<br />
Independent candidate Bob Richards managed a very creditable 38.4% (against Tomas Hill's 35.3% in 2009) and will be disappointed to have lost by 101 votes.<br />
The decline of the Liberal Democrats in a seat they would previously win, continued apace with their candidate Christine Ryall managing only 10% of the vote (17.5% in 2009).<br />
Labour still trailed in last but Jayne Kirkham managed to up the vote share to 7.6% (3.1% in 2009), probably gaining from the lack of an MK candidate and the fall in the Lib Dem vote (although that fall would have gone to the other candidates as well).<br />
A heart-warming 48% turnout.<br />
<br />
<strong>Ladock</strong>, <strong>St</strong> <strong>Clement</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>St</strong> <strong>Erme</strong><br />
<br />
One could never see Cllr Mike Eathorne-Gibbons losing this election, and so it proved with him increasinh his vote share from 41.3% to 57.4% this time - he would appear to have benefitted greatly from the absence of an Independent candidate on this occasion.<br />
Taking a very decent second place this time was the Green Party's Jo Poland, who managed to push the Liberal Democrats into third place with a good showing of 20.2%, apparently gaining much of the Liberal Democrat and MK-PC vote from 2009.<br />
For the Liberal Democrat's, Ian Jones could only manage to poll 14.7%, down from 24.2% last time.<br />
Labour's Stuart Venison trailed in last with 7.7%, with no real sign of gaining any traction in this area.<br />
<br />
<strong>Mount</strong> <strong>Hawke</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Portreath</strong><br />
<br />
A brilliant result for Liberal Democrat councillor Joyce Duffin, who was re-elected with a stunning 67% of the vote (actually, 66.666 recurring). The lack of a Conservative candidate in this seat seems to have favoured Cllr. Duffin the most and she will be delighted with her 527 majority. <br />
It may be argued that most of the Tory vote went they way fof UKIP hopeful, Eileen Lewis, who took 23.2% of the vote, but UKIP had picked up votes from lots of places in Cornwall, though I am sure the lion's share will be formerly Conservative.<br />
The only other candidate was Labour's Phillip Knight, who can gain some comfort from increasing the Labour vote to 10.1% from the 4% shame of 2009.<br />
A disappointing 34% turnout.<br />
<br />
<strong>Newlyn</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Goonhavern</strong><br />
<br />
Nearly a major upset here as Mebyon-Kernow's Rod Toms came within 26 votes of grabbing this seat Conservative Liz Shuttlewood. Ms Shuttlewood would normally think herself comfortably home with 46.2% of the vote (as was her predecessor, Cllr. Jinny Clark who had a 227 majority with only 40.3% of the vote in 2009). <br />
Mr Toms was known to be campaigning hard, as I noted in my reflection at the time, but he almost pulled off a a remarkable feat. He obviously swept up the Liberal Democrat, Independent and Liberal votes. If he stands again, he might well do it next time.<br />
In third place, Labour's Meg Tremayne will be satisfied to see Labour take 9.8% after the 4.2% share in 2009, but I bet she wouldn't have minded 27 of her votes going to Mr Toms in the circumstances.<br />
<br />
<strong>Penryn</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Mylor</strong><br />
<br />
My prediction for this seat was 'Liberal Democrat gain (with no real confidence)'. How right I was to be somewhat circumspect as this was another amazing result. In 2009, COnservative Tony Martin took the seat with 39.9% of the vote and won it with a majority of 174 over then Independent (now Liberal Democrat) candidate, Judith Whiteley. This time, Councillor Martin held on with only 23.3% of the vote and a majority of 16 over Independent challenger, John Symons (22.2%). Ms Whitely (21.7%), a former district councillor, was only another 7 votes behind.<br />
UKIP's Paula Clement achieved 18.2% of the vote and, even with that fairly modest share, was only 75 votes behind Mr Martin.<br />
For Labour, Miriam Venner managed to increase her party's share of the poll to 8.4% and swapped places with MK-PC's David Garwood who took this election's wooden spoon with 6.2%.<br />
I did speculate that it would be hard for any of the front-runners to pull away, and so it proved. It is another disappointing result for the Liberal Democrats who, even though their share of the vote on 2009 (15.1%) grew, had a seasoned candidate in Ms Whiteley who I certainly expected to do better and possibly win.<br />
<br />
<strong>Penryn</strong> <strong>West</strong><br />
<br />
Another bad result for the Liberal Democrats coming off a very disappointing result in 2009. Their candidate, Cait Hutchings, having come just 18 votes behind Independent victor, Mary May, in 2009, must have expected to do much better - indeed, to win. Instead, her vote share slipped from 29.4% to 27.9%.<br />
Cllr. May pulled off a great victory, impressively increasing her vote share from 31.8% in 2009 to 42.6% this time, whilst increasing her majority over Ms Hutchings to 138 votes.<br />
UKIP's Martin Orders came in thrid with 19.6% of the vote with Labour's Jim Lloyd-Davies achieving 9.9%, a 4% rise on 2009.<br />
<br />
<strong>Perranporth</strong><br />
<br />
Never a difficult result to predict, Independent Councillor Michael Callan was re-elected with 64.9% of the vote, a big leap from 2009 (47.2%) and a very hefty majority of 661.<br />
The interest for me was the order that came below Mr Callan and second place fell to MK-PC's Paul Dunbar who managed to push the Tories out of second place with 13.3% of the vote. The Conservatives (Lisa Marshall) saw their vote share halved to 11.2% whilst the other Independent runner, Mark Langdon only managed 4th place with 5.9% of the vote.<br />
Labour again trailed in last with only 4.8% of the poll, better than the 2.8% of 2009, but nowhere near the 13% they achieved in the last County Council elections of 2005. They have a lot to do here.<br />
The lack of a Liberal Democratic candidate is surprising in a place where in 2005 they took over 50% of the vote but given the 9.5% of 2009, one should not be too surprised that they ducked out this time.<br />
A great result for Mr Callan, an okay result for Mr Langdon, a deep disappointment for everybody else.<br />
<br />
<strong>Probus</strong>, <strong>Tregony</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Grampound</strong><br />
<br />
In 2009, Standalone Independent Councillor, Bob Egerton, was just elected with a third of the vote, beating the Tory candidate by 63 votes. This time, he has almost doubled his share of the vote with 66.1% and has a massive majority of 720 over the second-placed UKIP candidate, Steve Kendall who, despite the distant second place, pulled in a very acceptable first vote for UKIP of 20.7%.<br />
The disappointed Conservatives' Sean Marshall only managed third place and 10.1%, 18.5% down on 2009.<br />
Trailing in a a distant last with a shockingly awful 3.1% was Labour's Norman Roach, who should have hoped to do much better in the absence of the Lib Dems or MK-PC, most of whose vote seems to have swung behind Mr Callan.<br />
The Liberal Democrats took over 43% of the vote here in 2005, are they now only going to stand in General Election years?<br />
<br />
<strong>Roseland</strong><br />
<br />
Councillor Julian German was never likely to suffer any kind of threat here, and so it proved with him easily being re-elected with 67.5% of the vote, an improvement on his 65.2% in 2009.<br />
The only real interest in this election was whether former district council leader Fred Greenslade, having swapped parties from Liberal Democrat to Conservative, was likely to push him close. Despite his forty years of elected service, he was not able to boost the Tory vote and it fell back to only 17.4% (from 24.5% in 2009), which must have been quite a personal blow for him.<br />
He at least kept UKIP in third place with Elizabeth Coleman picking up a disappointing 12.1% of the vote, compared to their success elsewhere.<br />
For Labour, Callum MacLeod's hopes of a bit of a relaunch for Labour in this area was not at all successful, with him receiving a paltry 2.9% of the vote.<br />
At least a 48% turnout was quite decent.<br />
<br />
<strong>St</strong> <strong>Agnes</strong><br />
<br />
As predicted,a handy Liberal Democrat victory with new standard-bearer, Pete Mitchell, picking up a healthy 52.9% of the vote, only slightly down on the share in 2009 (58.4%). <br />
Conservative candidate, Dawn Brown, must have hoped she would do better this time than in 2009, but she saw a small dip in her vote share to 34.3% (from 36.6%) and was 215 votes behind.<br />
Only Labour managed to increase their share of the vote to 12.7% (from 5%), and candidate Robert Harrison will be pleased to have at least made a semi-decent showing, compared to some of his colleaues in the area.<br />
A rather disappointing 32% turnout.<br />
<br />
<strong>Threemilestone</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Gloweth</strong><br />
<br />
This result is an absolutely personal humiliation for sitting Councillor Chris Pasco, who resigned from the Liberal Democrats (see my former commnetary as to the details) and decided to defend the division as an Independent. Well, the voters certainly wanted an Independent but they didn't want Mr Pascoe who came in a humiliating seventh and last place with only 3.8% of the poll and 36 votes. In 2009, he managed 36.6% of the poll and 411 votes. It is a defeat quite remarkable in its totality.<br />
As for the Liberal Democrats' Moyra Nolan, she failed to capitalise on this and came in fourth with 15.6% of the vote. The victor was local builder and lifelong resident, Tim Deeble, standing as an Independent. With only 26.2% of the vote, he has a majority of 44 over another Independent candidate, trade unionist and NHS worker, John Humar (21.6% of the poll).<br />
The Conservative candidate, Adam Desmonde came in next with 19% and must be disappointed not to have taken advantage of the split vote with the Tory getting 29.9% in 2009.<br />
After Ms Nolan came, in fifth place, Labour's Philip Fenton, a student who spent the campaign revising so will probably pleased to have 7.2%, nudging the Labour vote up from its dismal 4.5% and last place at the last election.<br />
Ken Hart, another Independent, came next with 6.7%.<br />
I got this prediction wrong, but I did write: "There are seven candidates, 4 of them Independents, all waiting to make a fool of any prediction I might care to make".<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>Truro</strong> <strong>Boscawen</strong><br />
<br />
In this re-named and redrawn division "Defending" Councillor, Independent Bert Briscoe, was never likely to be under any threat here, and he easily gained re-election with 52.6% of the vote and a nice majority of 454. Maurice Valla for the Liberal Democrat's might have hoped to be in second place here, but he was pushed firmly back in the pack by Noel Krishnan, the COnservative candidate, who will not be too unhappy with 17.5% of the poll.<br />
For the Greens, Truro Mayor Lindsay Southcombe just top the last three candidates with 10.4%, just edging out the afore-mentioned Mr Valla (9.8%) by 8 votes and Labour's Susan Street (9.7%) by another two.<br />
Labour will be pleased to have increased their vote to a more acceptable level but may have hoped to do somewhat better on the basis of byelections results in Truro, Mr Valla will have little to be cheerful about but the Greens, Coservatives and, of course, the victorious Mr Briscoe, will have more to be satisfied about.<br />
<br />
<strong>Truro</strong> <strong>Redannick</strong><br />
<br />
A slap-down victory here for sitting councillor Rob Nolan, who only just squeezed the Tory last time by 66 votes. I thought he might struggle, not least given the good results for the Tories and Labour in recent Truro byelections, but He was comfortable home with 52.9% of the vote. I failed to make a prediction here but am willing to accept I was wrong to be so uncertain.<br />
Regular near-miss Conservative candidate, Lorrie Eathorne-Gibbons, can at least offer herself the small comfort that she wasn't left on tenterhooks during the count being soundly beaten by 387 votes and achieving a disappointing 23.8% share of the poll.<br />
Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate Lance Dyer just led those trailing in with 8.5%, with Labour's Pamela Atherton (mother of former MP, Candy Atherton) increasing the Labour vote (on 2009) to 8.2%. In last place came Howard Newlove who saw his vote from last time fall to 6,6% as he was victim of a squeeze by Mr Nolan.<br />
A good result for Mr Nolan and the Liberal Democrats.<br />
<br />
<strong>Truro</strong> <strong>Tregolls</strong><br />
<br />
Hand on heart, I did not see this result coming. Congratulations to former MK-PC candidate, then Conservative supporter, and now Independent councillor Loic Rich, on his election here. He took 40.9% of the vote, taking this seat firmly from the grasp of the Liberal Democrats whose candidate, former district councillor Ros Cox, saw her party's share of the vote slump from 39% in the old Tregolls division to 19.3%.<br />
In third place, with a less dramtic fall in the vote, came the Tory's Judy Cresswell, who achieved 16.2% of the poll. She will be happy to have held off UKIP's challenger, James Minihan, who managed to get his party 15% of the vote.<br />
Labour's Margaret George failed to achieve much of an increase for Labour (6%) and the party was undoubtedly squeezed by the successful campaign of Mr Rich. Suffering the same fate was the Green Party's Godfrey Allen, coming last with 2.6%.<br />
A bad result for all the parties really, with the talented actor, musician, and screenwriter (Mr Rich) grabbing his own unexpected political oscar.<br />
<br />
<strong>Truro</strong> <strong>Trehaverne</strong><br />
<br />
I did not feel confident to pick a winner in this Division and opined, "The big questions are: who gets the Independent vote from last time and will the Liberal Democrat vote grow of fall?"<br />
Well, the answer was, Dr. Charlotte MacKenzie gets most of the Independent vote, whilst defending Councillor Fiona Ferguson got about a third of it. Ms Ferguson, who quit as a Cabinet member over the issue of "lie detector tests" on those people claiming single person's council tax discount, has been rewarded by seeing her vote increase to 44.7% and a majority over the now second-placed Dr MacKenzie of 286 (only 6 votes in 2009).<br />
For Dr. MacKenzie, it is a decent result and perhaps asks the question of how well might she have done if she had not fallen out with the Labour Party (maybe worse?)? Her 22.1% is decent enough and she is now a City Councillor as well.<br />
In third place, on 13.8%, came local B&B owner, UKIP's Michael Inglefield. In fourth place was the Green candidate, Steve Angove, with 6.9%, followed by Labour's Richard Lees with 6.7%. I would contend that they will both be very disappointed to have done so badly.<br />
I have left answering the second big questioned I posed until now - "will the Liberal Democrat vote grow or fall?", the answer is that it collapsed, from 30.2% and only 40 votes from victory in 2009 to a disasterous last place and only 5.6% this time. Truro, historically a very strong city for the Liberal Democrats, has seen its vote fall back even from the low-point of 2009, with the exception of the excellent personal result for Rob Nolan in Redannick. <br />
<br />Catholic Left-wingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03829264770790693322noreply@blogger.com0