"Send three and fourpence, we're going to a dance."

One of the rather frustrating things about blogging and subsequent comments made to any posts is the not infrequent disagreements that blow up. I am no shrinking violet, but the ferocity of some of the commentary on a post is shocking and often quite personal.

I used to visit a site called The Continuum (a 'continuing Anglican' blog) to find out what was going on in their world and its comment section was so full of bile that I stupidly felt the need to suggest that what was being posted was unacceptable and, as the particular comment I was replying to made appalling suggestions about fatherless priests and their need for prayers, I suggested that as what was said was nasty and untrue then the commenter should keep their prayers for themselves. Amazingly, my comment was blocked by the 'moderator' as impolite whilst other appalling trash was allowed to be spewed. The interesting thing is that he commented on his forum that he had blocked me for bad manners but then allowed a mass of vitriol to be pored on my head because of my Blog title. The things I am apparently in favour of is not believable and, as anyone will have gathered from my posts, I am a traditionalist when it comes to the doctrine of the Church.

The terrier in me wanted to hit back, but I found ignoring the site easy and I have never been back since.

I suppose the anonymity that the internet affords a person can make one feel uninhibited but that cannot be an excuse for some of what is 'said' by those who post. I don't doubt that people have strong views about any issues and when a Post comes up that touched upon a person's deeply held convictions, a reaction can be expected; my own concern is that the response should be both proportional and reflects what has actually been posted, rather than be a repost to a perceived slight or opinion (actually, it would also delight me if accuracy was part of the response, but that's a personal preference).

I have been a victim of this myself (and even, accidentally, a perpetrator, hence my concern for care) where a person has attacked me for what I have said (when I haven't) and even constantly quoting back what was actually said makes no difference to the furore caused by the perceived offence caused. Also, just as misery likes a companion, others rush to express an opinion and things get wilder and less connected to the original point that the Blogger was trying to make.

Now, some people love this and find it entertaining and liberating - sadly, I am not one of these. Perhaps I am too uptight but my mother always encourages her children to be polite and correct. She also says we shouldn't butt into a conversation, but that is the point of the comment section in the blogosphere and, whilst my Mum is great at most things, she does like to butt in herself as my sisters will wearily testify.

It isn't that I believe that people shouldn't comment, they should as this is the way that conversations begin, opinions are shared and news passed. Also, it ensures that corrections to inaccuracies in the original post (or subsequent comments) can be made. Also, people do not have to agree but everything should be done with good heart and be a response to what has actually been said.

For the Blogger, there is a need to be careful in what is posted to be sure it is not gratuitously offensive and that it is not the dissemination of false information...not easy in the latter case so mistakes will be made. In the former, good manners are easy.

I hear tell of trolls (which still bring bridges and Billy Goats Gruff to my mind) and they are just sad people with nothing better to do than to post inflammatory and nasty things. They are what they are - for the rest of us, let us be better at how we respond to others and lets not play 'Chinese whispers' as we could end up in a storm not entirely of our own making.

Premership Blues

Oh well - congratulations Manchester City on winning the League - yes, I know I have taken a bit of time to mention it but I have had to get over the remarkable last 5 minutes when all my determination to believe that Man U could not win the Premiership had been overwhlemed by what looked like we could win it after all. I'll take losing on goal difference in a transitional year for us and, hopefully, coming second means that the Glazers will spend some serious money on transfers this year.

It is nice to see my cousins so happy as well - I remember that feeling - don't get used to it.

Of course, the real joy - who the **** are Liverpool? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!

Review of the Stockport Council election results

So, the votes have been counted and the people have spoken and it is time to reflect a little on what has happened In Stockport, 2 parties have something to be happy about - Labour gained 4 seats and again topped the poll in terms of votes cast (33.39%) and the Liberal Democrats avoided a meltdown, coming second in terms of votes (31.02%) and, whilst they lost three seats that they had held in 2008 (including the Councillor leader, David Goddard's seat in Offerton), they managed to regain Cheadle and Gatley and hold on in Hazel Grove and Bredbury Green and Romiley.
The big losers were the Conservatives who came third in vote share (25.33%) and lost two of their seats (Cheadle and Gatley and Heatons North).

Present Council Composition: (compared to 2008)

Liberal Democrats            28 (-3)
Labour                             21 (+4)
Conservative                    10 (-1)
Independent Ratepayer      3
People Matter                   1

Control of the Council is now open to debate but I would guess that the Liberal Democrats will retain control with the support of the Independent Ratepayers and the People Matter councillor who supported the Liberal Democrat deputy leader (new leader?) in her slim hold in Manor. Of course, I could be wrong.

Brinnington and Central:

This was an easy gain for Labour but the collapse in the Liberal Democrat share of the vote is truly catastrophic, coming third behind UKIP. The Lib Dem's John Reid took only 8.23% of the vote, down by 38.69% since 2008 and it is very much back to the drawing board for the party here. UKIP's Phil Lewis garnered a decent 11.8% of the vote to take second place whilst the former UKIP candidate in 2010, John Heginbotham, managed only 2.94% in his Independent tilt at the seat. The Conservatives' Stephen Holgate will be disappointed to have come in fourth and their vote share slipped compared with 2008 and last year suggesting that, even among their small base in this ward, they have suffered a post-budget backlash.
Labour's Andy Sorton will doubtless battle to prevent Labour losing its heartland seat in the future having achieved a stunning 35.82% swing from the Liberal Democrats since 2008.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Andy Sorton Lab 1677 70.4% (+32.95)
Phil Lewis UKIP 281 11.8% (+11.8%)
John Reid Lib Dem 196 8.23% (-38.69%)
Stephen Holgate Con 158 6.63% (-2.98%)
John Heginbotham Ind 70 2.94% (+2.94%)
(Green - 6.01%)
Labour Majority: 1396 (58.6%)
Swing - LD to Lab 35.82%

Bredbury and Woodley:

I feel fairly pleased with myself with this result as it pretty much turned out as I predicted - Labour's Roy Driver managed to increase the Labour vote by an impressive 6.1% since last May and Labour's vote is up by 26.08% since 2008, the highest vote in this area that Labour has achieved since the creation of the Borough (I am happy to be corrected here) and higher than even Labour's Bill Prince achieved in 1980 when he was elected as Labour's one and only councillor in Bredbury.

The Liberal Democrat's Christine Corris managed to hold on with a massively decreased majority from 2008 and a swing against the Liberal Democrats and to Labour of 22.92% in that period. Whilst 2008 was a disaster for Labour nationwide, this is still pretty stunning in the context of this ward. The Lib Dem vote fell sharply from last May (-7.7%) and the continued collapse of the Tory vote has probably helped Cllr Corris to hold on with a comfortable-ish majority of 181.

The Conservatives will be pretty dumbstruck by their continuing fall in support in this area where a mix of Lib Dem targeting of the vote and the reaction to the Budget has led them to be out of the race for this ward. Their vote share has more than halved since 2008 and this is the worst showing they have had since the present ward was created.

The BNP's Andy Webster took a fairly impressive share of the vote and, as ever, it isn't too easy to speculate where it would have gone if he hadn't stood; many of his supporters wouldn't have voted at all, a few would be Tories but evidence seems to show that BNP voters are often from a disproportionately Labour supporting background so this intervention may have helped Cllr Corris.

The Liberal Democrats are probably delighted that there are no elections in this ward for a couple of years to give them time to rebuild their voter base but if Mr Driver stands again, I see him winning here.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Christine Corris LD 1333 41.19% (-19.76%)
Roy Driver Lab 1152 35.6% (+26.08%)
Chris Kelly Con 469 14.49% (-15.04%)
Andy Webster BNP 282 8.71% (+8.71%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 181 (5.59%)
Swing - LD to Lab 22.92%

Bredbury Green and Romiley:

I got this one completely wrong and I hold my hands up. I was sure that the Conservatives would gain this seat and that Labour would begin to build up their vote share but, when I produced my predictions, the evidence of the post-Budget Conservative collapse wasn't clear and I did not take into account the impressive campaign machine of Councillor Lees who managed to get the vote out whilst the turnout overall for the ward fell sharply. The Lib Dem's 1594 votes were only 14 more than they achieved last year when they were roundly beaten by the Tories, but the turnout in this ward has fallen by a fifth since last May (913 voters less) and the Conservatives voters seem to be the ones who mainly stayed at home with their number of votes down by 906. This is what is known as the rule of differential turnout and the Liberal Democrats have worked it impressively in this ward. Whilst Cllr Lees share of the vote has fallen by 6.82% since 2008, the large fall by the Tories has meant there has been a swing to the Liberal Democrats of 2.06%.

This has got to be very disappointing for the Conservatives who nearly took this seat from Cllr Lees in 2008, coming within 119 votes last time she defended the seat, so I guess there will be a post-mortem asking why they could not enthuse the base to turn out and vote.

Labour's Kathryn Priestly held the vote share from last year (a slight increase of 0.13%) but I expect she will be very disappointed not to have held onto the voters from last year. Nevertheless, Labour has achieved a 13.66% rise in their vote since 2008.

The BNP's Tony Dean achieved 4.1% of the vote and that will have probably have had a similar effect to what I described in Bredbury and Woodley.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Hazel Lees LD 1594 41.14% (-6.82%)
Sally Bennett Con 1332 34.37% (-10.94%)
Kathryn Priestly Lab 790 20.39% (+13.66%)
Tony Dean BNP 159 4.1% (+4.1%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 262 (6.77%)
Swing - Con to LD 2.06%

Cheadle and Gatley:

I am glad I posted last Wednesday night that I was putting this in the Liberal Democrat gain column instead of my initial belief it was a toss-up but a probable Tory hold. Too much was going wrong for the the Tories to see them hold this and congratulations to the new Liberal Democrat councillor Keith Holloway on his victory.

Compared to last year, there was another depressing drop in the turnout here but Cheadle and Gatley managed one of the best turnouts in the borough with 41%. It seems that the Lib Dems managed to get their vote out better than the Conservatives who, despite only losing a small share of the vote on last year (-1.42%) saw their hopes of retaining this seat for Mick Jones fall from their fingers. I guess there will be a lot of blame laid at the hands of the Government's recent budget shambles but that didn't stop the Lib Dems from getting their vote out. As it happens, the turnout was very similar to that of 2008.

The leaflet targeting of Labour voters by the Lib Dems (including quoting attacks on Labour by their former councillor in Manor) to get the Tories out may have had some success as the Labour vote fell back slightly from 2011 by 0.93% and all this added to the margins to make last year's very marginal ward slightly safer for the Liberal Democrat's and produce a gain for them.

Labour's Colin Owen will be disappointed to have not progressed this year, especially given the Coalition government's troubles, but he still managed to improve Labour's vote share since 2008 from 8.77% to 20.4%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Keith Holloway  LD  2030 42.52% (-2.92%)
Mick Jones       Con  1770 37.08% (-8.71%)
Colin Owen       Lab   974  20.4% (+11.63%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 260
Swing - Con to LD 2.895%

Cheadle Hulme North:

Now, I put this ward in my Toss Up column whilst predicting a Lib Dem hold, the result shows my foolhardiness and I will take the newly re-elected Cllr Pantall's good-natured comment on that post as a well-needed hand slap.

It must be said though that nobody could have foreseen (at least until the few days) the remarkable drop in the Conservative share of the vote, especially given the absence of a UKIP candidate whose voters were unlikely to rush across to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. It would appear that they mostly stayed at home, which must be very worrying for the Conservatives. If they had stood this year, the evidence suggests that UKIP would  have increased its share of the vote.

The voter turnout was depressingly low in Cheadle Hulme North at just 33% but Councillor Pantall managed to get out his vote and, whilst only increasing the number of votes the Lib Dems got in 2011 by 9 votes, he increased the vote share by 10.83%.  The Conservatives share fell by 5.12% whilst Labour's Emily Hewson increased the vote from last May by 1.1%.

So, whilst Councillor Pantall's share of the vote has dropped by over 4% since 2008, he can be pleased with his comfortable majority and the success of his campaign. For Labour, a wonderful increase of over 22% since 2008 with a hefty swing to them from the Lib Dems, but disappointment that they haven't done better and a need to look at how it targets those voters resistant to them.

As for the Conservatives' Chris Green, just thank your lucky stars that UKIP didn't stand or things could have been much worse.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

John Pantall   LD  1762  52.44% (-4.39%)
Emily Hewson Lab 985  29.32% (+22.79%)
Chris green    Con  613  18.24% (-13.02%)
(UKIP - 5.37%)
LD Majority: 777
Swing - LD to Lab 13.59%

Cheadle Hulme South

I predicted a solid Lib Dem victory here but guessed at a reduced majority for Cllr Grice - I was wrong as he managed to hold onto a fairly comfortable majority which, whilst his vote share fell in relation to 2008, the drop in the Conservative vote made more impressive than it could have been. Compared to 2008, the Lib Dem vote fell by 4.47%, the Conservative vote fell by 12.56%,  whilst the Labour vote rose by 11.42% and UKIP vote rose by 6.85%.

Compared to last May however, Labour's Theo Smith saw his vote fall slightly (-1.36%) but this is not a great ward for Labour and it was always going to be a struggle for him. Councillor Grice will be delighted to see his party's vote rise to 46.86% after last years drop but much of this, on a reduced turnout, seems to be based on the Lib Dems managing to get their vote out whilst the Conservatives (28.9%) suffered an anti-Coalition backlash with UKIP rising and many voters staying at home so dropping by 6.76% since 2011.

Other than Cllr Grice, the big winner was UKIP's Cyril Peake who is the only candidate to actually increase his number of voters (up by 108) on 2011 and saw his vote share rise by 3.93% overall. This was bad news for the Conservatives' Julie Smith-Jones and will cause some serious soul-searching in the Tory camp.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Len Grice             LD  1876 46.86% (-4.47%)
Julie Smith-Jones Con  1157 28.9%  (-10.54%)
Theo Smith          Lab   579 14.46% (+11.42%)
Cyril Peake         UKIP 391 9.77% (+6.85%)
(Green -3.27%)
LD Majority: 719
Swing - Con to LD 3.035%

Davenport and Cale Green:

Despite a good campaign by sitting Councillor Ann Smith, this was always going to be a difficult battle for the Liberal Democrats after the seat swung heavily to Labour last year and, with the ward being the place where two LD councillors (Roy Driver and David White) defected to Labour out of frustration with the Coalition government and local cuts, has become a fairly safe Labour seat. On the face of it, the majority that Labour's Wendy Wild has achieved looks fairly low (267, 8.22%), but this is actually a swing to Labour and without a sitting councillor for the Lib Dems in a couple of years, I suspect the Labour majority will be closer to that of last May.

Davenport and Cale Green had a higher turnout than 4 years ago although it dropped pretty dramatically from last year, which seems to have benefited the Liberal Democrats who also managed successfully to squeeze the Conservative vote which fell by 7.26% since last May and by 10.15% since 2008. Without question, a good result for the Lib Dems but only in terms of where they were last May. In terms of 2008, the Labour share of the vote has risen by 17.19% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 7.39%, a swing to Labour of 12.29%. The healthy looking Lib Dem share of 38.01% would probably not have looked as good if the Tory vote hadn't so spectacularly collapsed.

The Green Party's Phil Shaw managed a respectable 6.34% of the vote, although it is down since last May (-2.02%) and the Liberal's Graham Ogden left no mark on this contest with only 37 votes (1.14%).

Whilst it is probably of little comfort to former Cllr Smith, I congratulate her on holding onto a personal vote that made things look slightly better than they could have done for her party.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Wild     Lab   1492   45.92% (+17.19%)
Ann Smith         LD    1235   38.01% (-7.39%)
Jackie Jones     Con    279      8.59% (-10.15%)
Phil Shaw         Green 206      6.34% (+6.34%)
Graham Ogden Lib       37      1.14% (+1.14%)
(BNP - 7.13%)
Lab Majority: 257
Swing - LD to Lab 12.29%

Hazel Grove:

Another seat where I wrongly guessed a Conservative gain, although it was very close and the Conservatives, unlike in other parts of the borough, managed to increase their share of the vote compared to their successful campaign last May. The past few weeks' unmitigated bad news for the national party surely depressed the potential Conservative vote and, as with the rest of the borough, the turnout fell quite steeply. Councillor Hogg managed to get the Lib Dem vote out and is undoubtedly very relieved to see their vote share rise by 5.9% since last May.

The result is actually worse for the Tories than it looks - this year there was no UKIP candidate and, when I first made my prediction of a Tory gain, I believed this would help them. The fact that it hasn't and that UKIP's vote seems to have stayed at home is very worrying for the Conservatives and their losing candidate, Oliver Johnstone. Interestingly, the Conservatives got exactly the same number of votes as in 2008 (1668) but, on a lower poll, have increased their vote share.

Labour's Catherine Sheppard will be disappointed to have not made progress on last year but they can certainly be pleased to have escaped the worst of a squeeze - the vote since last year fell by only 0.61%.

Congratulations to a relieved Councillor Hogg, he held on despite a big drop in his vote share since 2008, most of which has gone to Labour on a huge 12.105% swing.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Kevin Hogg             LD  1736  42.05%   (-12.8%)
Oliver Johnstone      Con 1668  40.41%  (+1.39%)
Catherine Sheppard Lab   724  17.54%  (+11.41%)
LD Majority: 68
Swing - LD to Con 7.905%

Heatons North:

I predicted this one correctly with the share of the vote for the Conservatives and Labour fairly similar to last year but with a slight rise for both parties and Labour enjoying an additional swing from the Tories of 0.625%.

It must be difficult for the Conservatives to know what has happened in this seat which used to be a fairly safe (at one time, very safe) bet for them. Whilst there have been demographic changes, it still has a demographic that should favour them but it seems that they are destined to be the most likely to succeed when Labour is doing badly.

The Conservative candidate, Barbara Judson, can be pleased that she managed to increase the vote share by 1.2% since last May but, in a straight fight with Labour, they will need to be achieving in the mid 40's to be sure of a gain. Compared to 2008 when former Councillor Jones stood, the Tory vote has fallen by 14% whilst Labour's has risen by 22.34% (admittedly, 2008 was a terrible year for Labour), a swing of 18.17% to them.

Labour will be delighted to have taken this seat and Councillor Sedgwick will be particulary pleased to have raised the Labour vote share since last year by 2.46%.

The Green's veteran candidate, Janet Cuff, will be pleased that she didn't suffer a squeeze and saw her share of the vote rise compared to 2008 and 2011.

For the Liberal Democrats and their candidate, Andrew Rawling, this is probably a result they would like to forget. Never a good seat for them, they were squeezed in this race and forced into 4th place.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

David Sedgwick  Lab 1913   47.9%   (+22.34%)
Barbara Judson   Con  1553  38.88% (-14%)
Janet Cuff            Grn  364     9.11%  (+0.52%)
Andrew Rawlings  LD 164     4.11%  (-5.04%)
(UKIP -3.83%)
Labour Majority: 360
Swing - Con to Lab 18.17%

Manor:

I got this one wrong but I did wonder (and added to my original post) what the effect of the intervention of the now 'People Matter' Cllr McAuley might be on behalf of Cllr Derbyshire. To be honest, I don't really think that it has made much difference to the result as Labour held its share compared to last year and it was the successful squeeze that the Lib Dems managed to put on the Tory vote that seems to be the main reason for this hold. I suppose he may have convinced a dozen or so people and that would be responsible for the hold, but it is not too worthy of consideration as it can't be quantified.

Compared to last year, the Conservative vote share has fallen by 7.06%, some of that may have stayed at home but some will be the result of a 'keep Labour out' campaign.

The Deputy Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire has worked very hard with her party on this campaign and managed to get her vote out very successfully and she deserves congratulations for this whilst others were losing out. Compared to 2008, her share of the vote has fallen by only 1.06% (remarkable really) and this is the reason for her victory.

Labour's Walter Barrett will be deeply disappointed to have failed to take this seat by only 24 votes and will need to go to the drawing board to work out how to get former Tories to switch to Labour let alone gain even more former Liberal Democrat voters. However, the Labour vote compared to 2008 has risen by a stunning 20.19% and holding on to that share will be the basis of future victory hopes for Labour.

The BNP's Duncan Warner again stood and his vote continued to decline.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Sue Derbyshire  LD 1415 44.32% (-1.06%)
Walter Barrett   Lab 1391 43.56% (+20.19%)
Leslie Judson     Con 235  7.36%  (-10.07%)
Duncan Warner BNP 152 4.76%  (-9.06%)
Lib Dem Majority: 24
Swing - LD to Lab 10.625%

Offerton:

I predicted last year that Labour would take this seat at these elections and I guessed it would be a nailbiter - and it was: Labour's Laura Booth claiming the scalp of Council Leader, Dave Goddard, by just 45 votes. From all reports, this was a real battle and it came down to who could get the vote out and whether Labour could convince enough tactical Lib Dems that they could win. Equally, Dave Goddard had to convince Tories to vote for him to keep Labour out.

In the end, Labour were successful and managed to increase their vote compared to last year by 5.13% whilst the Liberal Democrat's vote slipped by 0.41%. I don't doubt that some Tory supporters may have gone straight across to Labour, but it is more likely that they went to the Lib Dems at about the same rate as voters switched from the Lib Dems to Labour. Only 140 less voted than last year and it is all these slight margins which excite psephologists and frustrate party activists - it is the 'if only' rule: "if only I had got that vote out, if only I had canvassed that street again."

The Conservative vote held up fairly well but, given they were the main opponents to the Lib Dems until last year, they will be concerned that they are clearly third here and weren't able to capitalise on the defection to them of Councillor Smith.

UKIP's Harry Perry would have hoped to have gained at the expense of the Tory troubles nationally, but failed to do so and saw their vote slip back slightly. In such an interesting and close contest, it is hard to be an also-ran.

In the end, it has been Labour's ability to crawl back from the doldrums of recent years and to make themselves a challenger in this ward which is the real story. It was always likely that if Labour re-established itself in Offerton then the main losers would be the Liberal Democrats. Since Mr Goddard last stood in 2008, the Labour share of the vote rose by an extraordinary 26.82% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 12.47%, a swing of 19.645%.

The disappearance of the BNP has added to the political weather - where has that vote gone? Evidence suggests that many are former Labour voters and the party was most successful here when Labour was nowhere, but the BNP voters are a mixed bunch and a lot will be voting UKIP and a few will stay at home.

So, Stockport has lost its Council Leader and the Lib Dems have lost their party boss, it will be interesting to see what happens now but, for Mr Goddard, after 20 years as a councillor (many as a Labour representative), I suspect a bit of a deep breath and a sitdown is in order.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Laura Booth       Lab 1346  36.81% (+26.82%)
Dave Goddard   LD  1301  36.57% (-12.47)
Steve Rodriguez   Con 661 18.07% (-4.41%)
Harry Perry       UKIP 349  9.54% (+9.54%)
(BNP -18.79%)
Labour Majority: 45
Swing - LD to Lab 19.645%

Stepping Hill:

I put this in my Toss Up column and wasn't sure who would win, but (again) I had not taken into account the effect of the 'omni-shambles' budget on Conservative-inclined voters and the Lib Dems successful campaign. Compared to last year, The Lib Dem vote fell only slightly (-0.37%) whilst the Conservative vote share fell by 4.81% giving the Lib Dems a more comfortable majority than last year though somewhat worse than 4 years ago when Councillor Orrell last stood.

The Conservative candidate, John wright, will be disappointed not to have been able to hold or increase the Tory vote share and must be frustrated by the national picture which depressed the Tory vote, but UKIP's Izzy Bolton managed to increase their share of the vote (+2.98%) compared to last May and much of that must have come from the Conservatives. The veteran Green candidate, Ken Pease, will be pleased that he saw his vote share rise by 2.6%.

Labour's Janet Rothwell  managed to avoid a squeeze and increased her vote share since last May by 1.74%. I am sure that she will feel some disappointment not to have made a significant move forward and to be establishing the Labour Party as realistic challengers for the ward but, compared to 2008, the vote share is up by 16.38%.

Councillor Orrell will be fairly pleased with the result but will be concerned at the low turnout and the fact that, compared to when she last stood for election (2008), her party's share of the vote fell by 14.39%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Orrell  LD 1422   39.07% (-14.39%)
John Wright     Con 955   26.24% (-10.34%)
Janet Rothwell Lab  815   22.39% (+16.38%)
Izzy Bolton     UKIP 229  6.29% (+6.29%)
Ken Pease     Grn   219    6.02 (+2.07%)
LD Majority: 467
Swing - LD to Con 1.975%

So - the story is that where there was a competitive battle, the turnout was quite good, and the Liberal Democrats did better than many predicted (including themselves, I would have thought) due to the fall in the Conservative vote compared to last year. It is probably why the Lib Dems managed to hold onto Hazel Grove, Bredbury Green and Romiley along with Manor whilst gaining Cheadle and Gatley.

A lot of Conservatives will be very unhappy with David Cameron but I suspect a lot of Liberal Democrats, when the relative relief fades, will be concerned at the effect that being part of the Coalition has had on their local activist base. Across the north of Stockport and in the old Lancashire wards, the Lib Dems vote has collapsed as disastrously as it has in large parts of Manchester and Rochdale. It is amazing to see how their vote has disappeared in Brinnington and Central (won by the Lib Dems in 2008), Edgeley and Cheadle Heath (once a Lib Dem seat) and the best they achieved was 9.63% in Reddish South.

As Labour discovered to its cost, you cannot wither away in wards or you may find that the way to recovery is a long one.

For the Conservatives, a series of bitter blows when they had hoped for better - they are reduced to only 10 Councillors and are only able to rely (in fairly good times) on the Bramhall wards to return councillors in the Conservative cause. Third in terms of vote share across the Borough and a distant third in terms of the number of Councillors, there needs to be a lot of soul-searching in the Stockport Conservative camp.

For Labour, not-quite unalloyed joy but joy nonetheless; for the third year in a row, Labour has increased its number of seats on the council and, for a successive year, have the highest number of votes cast across the borough. Whilst there will be disappointment at just missing out on taking Manor from the Liberal Democrats, there will be a lot of satisfaction at gaining 4 seats and finally getting a toe-hold in Offerton with the added bonus (for them) of removing David Goddard from his seat. Labour's success in pushing the Liberal Democrats close in Bredbury and Woodley offers them a strategy for becoming the largest party in Stockport with a successful rebuilding of their support in the east of the borough.

So - much to contemplate.

Vote early, if not often....

To all those who are standing for election tomorrow, I wish you good luck and thank you for your commitment. If you fail to win, then at least be satisfied that you raised your head above the parapet when most wouldn't. If you lose the seat you hold, then I hope that the disappointment soon fades and that you are able to take on board the message that your electorate are sending to you or your party.

I was intending to blog about Manchester and Rochdale, but my wonderful Crohn's Disease has been a joy so I have been slowed down.

Suffice it to say, if the Liberal Democrats are unable to hold more than two seats in Manchester and one seat in Rochdale, then it will be a sign of true disaster for them. If they hold none - nuff said.

I stand by my Stockport predictions - I believe Labour will gain Brinnington and Central (I know, easy), Davenport and Cale green, Heatons North, Manor and, with big ramifications for the Liberal Democrats, Offerton. I also believe that the Conservatives will gain Hazel Grove and Bredbury Green and Romiley.

I think that Cheadle and Gatley has swung slightly more into the Liberal Democrat's gain column. Despite the confident campaign of Carl Rydings in Marple South, I can't see him gaining the seat but Labour may do better there than I had earlier thought, reducing the Lib Dem majority over the Conservatives quite significantly - the one conundrum for me is how Councillor Shan Alexander's problems will effect her chances.

As for Portsmouth - who knows? What a fascinating election count that will be but I am convinced that Labour will be back as a significant presence in the Town Hall this year.

So , please vote , even if you spoil the ballot paper - it is the one chance we have to shake up the system; if you don't think it matters then ask yourself: "Why were all those people across the Near East willing to protest at the risk to their lives? What is going on in Syria? How amazing is it that Aung San Suu Kyi was elected to the Burmese Parliament?" Lying in bed isn't a political statement.

So - Have a happy election day.

Portsmouth Local Elections overview and predictions

Portsmouth is a politically fascinating local authority which is an example of how to build and progress as a political party. The Liberal Democrats have been astonishingly successful in turning this former Labour/Conservative city into what is in effect, at least locally, a Liberal Democrat stronghold. As I have posted before, you have to admire the success of the Liberal Democrats over the past few years in taking over from the Labour Party as one of the two major parties in the city. Labour presently only hold 2 council seats out of 42, which is stunning when you consider that until the last general election they held one of the two parliamentary seats (Portsmouth North) and they ran the council until the year 2000, the Lib Dems only finally gaining control in 2010. For Labour, when a party falls so far, it takes a long time to climb back.

Last year, when the Liberal Democrats were suffering virtual annihilation in other parts of the country (Manchester, Liverpool, Rochdale, Sheffield, Newcatle upon Tyne, Hull, Birmingham, etc.) in Portsmouth the Liberal Democrat vote held up pretty well, dropping by just 1% since the 2007 elections. With less than a third of the vote, they took 9 of the seats up for election whilst the Tories with 37.33% of the vote took 4 seats and Labour with nearly 26% of the vote, managed to take only 1 seat (actually losing Nelson to the Lib Dems in the shape of their former leader, Leo Madden).

Whilst Labour can take some comfort from the fact that it increased its vote from 2007 by nearly 10%, it will need to be making progress this year in terms of gaining seats if it is to become a political force again in the city.

I will look at what I believe to be the target seats, in terms of both the 2008 results when these wards were technically last up and 2011 when, as they are three member seats, they were actually fought. As it happens, I think only three of the wards are safe: Drayton and Farlington, Fratton and Hilsea (and I am not so sure about the latter).

2008 was a disaster for Labour when they were left with no seats, losing Nelson to the Conservatives (and just coming third in the process behind the Lib Dems) and failing to regain Paulsgrove from the Tories. Their share of the vote fell to 13.4%. The elections were a great success for the Conservatives as they took 44.8% of the vote and 8 of the 14 seats up for election. The Liberal Democrats lost Milton to the Conservatives and, showing a capacity for 'getting out the vote' where it mattered, it held on by small majorities in Eastney and Craneswater (14 votes), St Thomas (29 votes), St Jude (112 votes - technically a gain, as the Liberal councillor had joined them) and just missed out in Baffins (31 votes) and Nelson (59 votes). The Liberal Democrat share of the vote in 2008 was 34.5%, up by 34.4% on 2004.

The surprise this year is the total disappearance of the English Democratic Party who were taking substantial shares of the vote in wards where they stood. Where will there votes go? Last year, not too surprisingly perhaps, they seemed to go to Labour.

Of course, if there is a Liberal Democrat meltdown, all bets are off.

If you don't like my ward statistics, take it up with the ONS as I have taken them from there.

Paulsgrove

Paulsgrove is a fairly mixed area, in the sense of being very deprived in places and very affluent in others. It contains the Paulsgrove Estate (made famous by the 'anti-paedophile' panic and marches of a few years ago - good job there NOTW, we miss you not), the exclusive Port Solent marina estate and part of the Wymering estate.

It has a fairly young population with a median age of 34, with 16.95% of the population being over 60 (6.5% over 75). 18% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 7.16% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 41.52% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.54% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 3.77% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 17.36%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.

A high 15.13% of the population are single-parent households. 15.06% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.

At one time, Labour were a fairly safe bet in Paulsgrove but there has always been a significant Conservative vote. Despite their success elsewhere in the city, the Liberal Democrats haven't managed to take a seat here and only managed 10.2% of the vote in Labour's nadir year of 2008 (in 2007, they came 4th after the English Democrats). Last year, they did slightly better with 11.37%. The Conservative candidate, Matt Davies, is defending a vote share of 33.36% from last May - the sitting Conservative, Mike Blake, stood down last November (a long time without a byelection but probably a money saving exercise seeing as he was due to defend the seat this May).

The Labour party is making the proposed closure of the local library an issue in this campaign and, I would guess, that dissatisfaction with many of the benefit cuts and the loss of local funding due to the financial situation, would make this a safe bet for a Labour gain this year and John Ferrett (candidate before in Central Southsea and in Portsmouth South at the last General Election). The Conservatives will be happy to hold their vote share and I would say the same for the Liberal Democrats and their wonderfully named candidate, Roger Inkpen - a family name that has stood for the Liberal Democrats on many occasions.

Labour Gain

2008 (2011)

Mike Blake C 1236 50.4% (33.36%)
Graham Heaney Lab 963 39.3% (55.28%)
Matthew Winnington LD 251 10.2% (11.37%)

Full candidate list: DAVIES Matt (Con), FERRETT John (Lab) INKPEN Roger (Lib Dem)

Nelson

Nelson ward is home to the continental ferry port as well as  HMS Excellent on Whale Island. The electorate are mainly skilled working class with a significant number of  wealthier residents.
This will be a fascinating three-way battle with each of the candidates hopeful of victory. Whilst it appeared at one time to be a fairly safe Labour seat, the Labour vote began to be eroded to the point that former Labour group leader, Councillor Leo Madden, only managed to hold the seat with 31.9% of the vote in 2007 from both the Lib Dems (27.2%) and Tories (27%).

The Labour Party was then struck a body blow when Councillors Madden and Fazackerley quit the party to sit as Independents in early 2008. In May of that year, the Conservative candidate, James Williams, sneaked through to take the seat with 31.4% of the vote over the Lib Dems (29.2%) and Labour (28.5%).

In January 2009, along with Central Southsea ward Conservative Councillor Lee Hunt, Cllrs Madden and Fazackerley joined the Liberal Democrats giving them overall control of the council for the first time.

It has a fairly young population with a median age of 33, with 16.36% of the population being over 60 (6.17% over 75). 21.35% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 10.09% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 38.7% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.48% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 3.28% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.94%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.

A fairly high 12.58% of the population are single-parent households. 13.24% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.

This will be a fascinating result for what it tells us about the state of play between the Liberal Democrats and Labour and whether the Conservatives will be able to hold onto a seat they gained due to a clearly split left of centre vote in 2008. Last year, they were squeezed into third place with 27.74% of the vote, Labour took 33.82% of the vote with the Liberal Democrats winning with 38.44%. Labour will be throwing everything into this seat so as to re-establish themselves and will be hoping that the lack of an incumbent Liberal Democrat will help them in this. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Ben French, only turns 18 during the campaign and will probably the youngest councillor in Britain if he wins. Councillor Williams will be hoping that incumbency will save him here but I have my doubts. Which way are the Lib Dems playing it - vote Lib Dem to get the Tory out or vote Lib Dem to keep Labour out?

With the growing unpopularity of the Coalition government, the cuts that the local authority will be having to introduce due to the financial situation and the news of the country dropping back into recession, this could be beyond the Conservatives and a real challenge to the Lib Dems having to defend incumbency both in national and local government. Labour might be able to pull it off here if it can get the vote out

If they do, Labour's Ken Ferrett finally would gain a seat having had a torrid old time as the long-suffering Labour candidate in Milton (although he did manage to get the vote up to 21.6% last May from the appalling 6.1% in 2007 (5.6% in 2008)).

So, with all sorts of trepidation, I think the national picture being what it is and an incumbent Tory to hold onto votes the Lib Dems might hope to gain and Labour voters more galvanised, then I predict a Labour victory here - just.

2008 (2011)

James Williams C 844 31.4% (27.74%)
Paul Miles-Knight LD 785 29.2% (38.43%)
Sarah Cook Lab 766 28.5% (33.82%)
Kevin Baker EDP 193 7.2% ( - )
Calum Kennedy Grn 104 3.9% ( - )


Full candidate list: FERRETT Ken (Lab), FRENCH Ben (Lib Dem), WILLIAMS James (Con)

Charles Dickens

The birthplace of Charles Dickens. Outside of London, this is believed to be the most deprived ward in the South of England and most likely to face problems from targeted cuts in sickness benefit, housing benefit, the reduction in grants to charities but, conversely, gain from the particular targeting of resources to the poorest which would be the main concern of the Liberal Democrats to prove their effective influence in national government.

Charles Dickens ward covers the Naval Base, City Centre, Buckland, Portsea and the old council estates of Landport. The University is in the ward with the most of the student accommodation. It includes the beautiful church of St Agatha's, Landport, which served the old estates of the area until it closed in 1954. It became a naval store for 40 years until it was taken back into use as a church by the Traditional Anglican Church and now houses a parish of the Personal Ordinariate of St Peter (Anglicans in union with the RC Church).

Charles Dickens has a young population with a median age of 31, but a considerable older population with 21.1% of the population being over 60 (8.87% over 75), this will reflect the mix of students in the University and older residents on the estates. A low 13.2% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 10.2% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.89% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, a low 4.19% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a high 6.48% but this might not include some from the large 'not classifiable' group of 20.61%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. A large 12.43% are Full-Time students and they may have a big influence on this election.

A high 18.94% of the population are single-parent households. A massive 19.28% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well be this year's 'student grant' backlash for the Lib Dems if Labour can get people motivated to vote.

Other than Paulsgrove, I would see this as the seat most likely to go Labour. Last year, the Liberal Democrats held the seat over Labour by 124 votes and thus, for the first time since the ward was created in 2002, it has come back into play for them. Back then, Labour took two of the seats but the poll was topped by the Lib Dems Jacqueline Hancock, who massively outpolled her two LD colleagues. Labour took 46.38% of the votes, the Lib Dems took 41.67% with the Conservatives taking the remaining 11.95%. Since then, it has become a fairly comfortable Liberal Democrat ward with Labour falling to third place and 18.3% of the vote in 2008.

Last year, the Labour vote was up by 10.08% from 2007, the Liberal Democrat vote down by 3.58%. the Conservative vote was up by 4.86% and the Greens by 3.7%. with Respect and the EDP not standing,their 15.06% vote (if it turned out) was spread around the parties. It would appear that Labour picked up the lion's share of those votes. Councillor Wylie will have been delighted to get through the poll and I expect that he will be happy to not be up until 2015. So, a swing to Labour of 6.83% which just failed to get them home.
This year, Councillor Margaret Foster will be defending the seat she has held since 2004 and will be facing Labour's former Nelson Councillor, Sarah Cook (last year's runner-up) as the main challenger and will be hoping to hold off the challenge. The intervention of Aron Fielder as the TUSC (Trade Union and Socialist Coalition)candidate might be a threat to Labour's hopes but it is not certain how left-or-centre votes will split and whether the anti-Labour protest votes when they were in government will be available in the same number this time. The Conservative had a healthy vote of 22.48% last year and it will be interesting to see if it is squeezed at all by the Liberal Democrats campaigning to keep Labour out or if the Tory candidate, Luke Franks, can hold the vote share.

The Greens are again fielding Russell Anderson and it will be interesting to see if he can avoid being squeezed as well.

The student vote is often hard to gauge and it will have been good for the Lib Dems until recently and also for Greens. I would guess that Labour will do better with them this year and and Labour are particularly targeting the large pensioner population with reference to the 'Granny Tax' which has been perceived as a cut in Pensions whilst the Budget helped the top-rate taxpayers. This may be unfair but it is how things are being seen and given that pensioners tend to turn out to vote it might hurt the 'Coalition' parties.

For this reason, I see Labour gaining Charles Dickens ward.

2008 (2011)

Margaret Foster LD 1046 45.0% (36.31%)
Stephen Rogers C 496 21.4% (22.48%)
Keith Crabbe Lab 426 18.3% (32.15%)
David Farley EDP 182 7.8% ( - )
Lee Sprake Ind 172 7.4% ( - )
(Green 9.06%)

Full candidate list: ANDERSON Russell (Green), COOK Sarah (Lab), FIELDER Aron (TUSC) new candidate, FOSTER Margaret (Lib Dem) FRANKS Luke (Con)

Copnor

Copnor is an interesting ward which, normally Conservative, has been a place of some success for the English Democrats who managed to take 17.3% of the vote in 2007, almost matching Labour (17.5%) and the Liberal Democrats (18.9). Their standard-bearer, David Knight, is absent from the ballot after 6 consecutive attempts. The ward has not been overwhelmingly Conservative with the party having managed largish majorities on the basis of a split opposition. Labour and the Liberal Democrats battled for second place here but, since a byelection in early 2008 when the Liberal Democrats gained the seat on a 'Save the Fire Station' ticket with a cracking 55.63% of the vote (the Conservatives regained that seat last May), the Liberal Democrats moved ahead. Last year, both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats gained votes and the Conservatives fell to a dangerous -for them- 38%, above the the Liberal Democrats (29.87%) and Labour in third (23.59%).

Copnor has a fairly young population with a median age of 35, with 15.51% of the population being over 60 (5.47% over 75). 27.73% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 12.4% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.78% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 7.34% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a low 1.68% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 12.43%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.49% are Full-Time students and they may have a big influence on this election.

8.63% of the population are single-parent households. 10.05% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

So, a fairly middle-class, suburban ward which the Conservatives would be hoping to hold fairly safely except for the intervention of the sitting Councillor, Malcolm Hey, who was deselected by the local Conservatives and may well split the vote. If this happens, the question is who will benefit? On the face of it, the Liberal Democrats should and slight Labour's hopes may well be somewhat hampered by the intervention of Mick Tosh of the TUSC. Where will the fairly well-established ED vote go - it may be that Mr Tosh will gain some of the anti-mainstream party votes. In a very good year for Labour, they could take this seat and the gloriously named John Spiegelhalter would be elected but I don't think this is the year. Maybe Cllr Hey will win re-election, but I doubt it and am putting a punt on the Lib Dem's Alex Bentley (for 12 years, the councillor for Milton) to win through the divided field this year.

Lib Dem Gain

2008 (2011)

Malcolm Hey C 1434 47.7% (38.29%)
Phil Smith LD 923 30.7% (29.87%)
Terence O'Brien Lab 355 11.8% (23.59%)
David Knight EDP 294 9.8% (8.25%)

Full candidate list: BENTLEY Alex (Lib Dem), SPIEGELHALTER John (Lab), TOSH Mick (TUSC), YOUNG Neill (Con)

Central Southsea

Central Southsea is an interesting ward with an interesting recent political history. In 2002 with all 3 seats up for election,, the Conservative's Lee Hunt topped the poll, gaining significantly more votes than his two running mates who lost out to the top two Labour candidates. The Tories took 38.49% of the vote, Labour took 38.45%, the Lib Dems took 15.47% with the remaining votes going to Greens (2.49%), Socialist Alliance (4.2%) and Independent (0.89%). Labour's good showing was perhaps lucky as , in a one-to-one battle, the Conservatives gained a seat from them the next year with 41.2% of the vote ahead of Labour's 36.24% (Lib Dem 18.64%, Soc All 3.92%). After this, Labour fell out of the race and the following year the Liberal Democrat's Howard Jones stormed to first place (38.99%) to take the seat from Labour in third (26.08%), ahead of the Conservatives in second (34.93%). After this, it has been a two battle between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems with the Tories usually winning whilst Labour struggled to keep third place ahead of the Greens. In a sign of things to come, the Conservative victor of 2003 (Debbie Tomes) defected to the Lib Dems but lost her seat to her old party in 2007. In 2008, the Lib Dems held their seat and then, after the defection to them of both remaining sitting Tory councillors (Lee Hunt and Margaret Adair), the seat remains in Lib Dem hands with them winning in 2010 and 2011.

Central Southsea has a young population with a median age of 30, with 15.43% of the population being over 60 (6.22% over 75). 27.15% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 7.79% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 20.54% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.29% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 11.25%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. A huge 25.99% are Full-Time students and this probably explains the huge swing to Labour last May after the Liberal Democrats nationally were seen to ditch their pledge of student grants.

9.1% of the population are single-parent households. 9.67% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

Last year saw the Lib Dem vote compared to 2007 rise by 13.4% (technically a gain, but with the sitting former Tory councillor, Margaret Adair), Labour's rose by 14.6%, the Tories fell by 14.5%. I would guess that much of the old Tory vote went to Councillor Adair as it would be surprising and counter to all surveys to not recognise that much of the Labour vote rise came from the student population.

This year, there is a new candidate for the Liberal Democrats (Phil Smith) and he will be hoping to repeat the success of last May when Margaret Adair took almost 43% of the vote. Labour are again fielding Rob Smith who will hope that last year's good share of the vote (27.9%) will be a good base to snatch the seat. The Conservatives (with the brilliantly named Kevan Chippindall-Higgin) will want to re-establish their pre-eminence in the seat, not least by pulling back some of the vote they have lost to the Lib Dems. The problem all parties are facing is whether they can motivate their base to turn out. The last month before these elections have been tough for the Coalition Government and this could well lead many of the Con and Lib Dem voters to stay at home, let alone lose votes to Labour. Labour's hopes are probably not helped by the presence again of the TUSC candidate, Frances Pilling, who will doubtless aim to do will with the more left votes that are present among the students and disenchanted traditional Labour voters.

I am going to go for a Lib Dem hold here but with Labour improving their vote share cutting into the majority.

Lib Dem hold.

2008(2011)

John Ireland LD 1295 41.1% (42.83%)
Massoud Esmaili C 1024 32.5% (23.1%)
John Ferrett Lab 313 9.9% (27.9%)
Betty Burns Grn 247 7.8% ( - )
John Molyneux Ind 159 5.0% ( - )
Alan Evens Ind 113 3.6% ( - )
(TUSC 6.16%)
Full candidate list: CHIPPINDALL-HIGGIN Kevan (Con), MACLENNAN Lucy (Green), PILLING Frances (TUSC), SMITH Phil (Lib Dem), SMITH Rob (Lab)

Cosham

This is a seat of musical chairs for the Conservatives whose sitting councillor was deselected and is now standing in Eastney and Craneswater ward, whilst their candidate here is the incumbent councillor for Baffins ward.

In the all-out elections of 2002, Labour took all three seats with a comfortable, in retrospect, 48.77% of the vote, the Conservatives taking 37.33% and the Liberal Democrats the remaining 13.9%. They lost all their seats in the subsequent three elections to the Conservatives and, whilst retaining 2nd place throughout the election cycles since, Labour have not been close to winning the ward back. Last May, there was a big swing to Labour's Graham Heaney although it is hard to parse the results properly due to the exit from the race of the English Democrats. Compared to 2007 (when this seat was last up for election) The Labour vote rose by 11%, the Conservative fell by 1.2% and the Liberal Democrat vote rose by 0.6%.

Cosham's population has a median age of 38, with 22.34% of the population being over 60 (9.22% over 75). 24.05% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 9.23% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.5% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.41% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.68% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 18.39%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.73% are Full-Time students.

12.14% of the population are single-parent households. 13% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

The Labour candidate is, once again, former local councillor Graham Heaney who represented this seat for 9 years until 2004 and he will hope that the lack of an incumbency factor will help him to close the not inconsiderable gap that still existed last year. It will require a swing of just under 6.5% for Labour to take the seat from the Tories and he will not be helped in this by the presence of the TUSC candidate, Simon Wade, in the battle for the left-of-centre anti local and national government vote. I don't see the Liberal Democrats doing much here and they must face the possibility of being squeezed. If the Conservatives keep their vote share above 44%, I think they are safe but we don't know whether Councillor Henderson's deselection and the 'chicken run' arrival of Councillor Fleming will go down too well with the local electorate..

A month ago, I would have predicted a fairly safe Conservative hold, but, after the rough month since the budget, getting the vote out may not be easy and a backlash among some may give Labour the seat. It is a toss-up, with the Conservatives the favourites.

2008 (2011)

Terence Henderson C 1749 56.9% (47.83%)
Andrew Silvester Lab 657 21.4% (34.95%)
Alan Webb LD 371 12.1% (17.21%)
David Ward EDP 241 7.8% ( - )
Stephen Holland Senate 57 1.9% ( - )


Full candidate list: FLEMING Jim (Con), GRAY Aiden (Lib Dem), HEANEY Graham (Lab), WADE Simon (TUSC)

Baffins

I would see this as being as close to a slapdown gain for the Liberal Democrats as it is possible to be. They have held this seat since 2002 with the exception of 2008, when the Conservatives just sneaked it by 31 votes. So confident are they of holding this seat that their sitting councillor has moved to the apparently sunnier climes of Cosham. Last May, the Liberal Democrats had a comfortable 13% lead over the Conservatives and they should be safe to retake the seat. The Lib Dem candidate, Darren Sanders, is a former Lambeth councillor who stood for the Lib Dems in Portsmouth North at the last General Election.

Cosham's population has a median age of 37, with 20.99% of the population being over 60 (7.66% over 75). 24.84% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 10.93% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 31.82% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.42% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.19% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 17.46%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.33% are Full-Time students.

9.43% of the population are single-parent households. 12.39% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

This is not a seat where Labour would expect to do too well and they would probably be pleased if the returning Barbara Spiegelhalter increases their vote to around 20%. Sarah Coote is standing again for the Green Party (this will be the 9th time) and she will be lucky to get 7% of the vote. The absence of the EDP may help one or other of the candidates but it is hard to guess whom.

It will be interesting to see how the votes split this year given the unpopularity of the Coalition Government, especially in a seat which is a battle between the Coalition partners. Last year, both parties lost votes and, whilst I am fairly sure the Liberal Democrats have a safe gain, the vote share will be interesting.

Liberal Democrat gain


2008 (2011)

Jim Fleming C 1494 41.4% (28.65%)
Michael Andrewes LD 1463 40.5% (41.78%)
Victoria Fry Lab 293 8.1% (15.64%)
Alan Wakeford EDP 205 5.7% (5.57%)
Sarah Coote Grn 156 4.3% (4.95%)
(Independent 3.41%)


Full candidate list: COOTE Sarah (Green), KEMP Jonathan (Con), SANDERS Darren (Lib Dem), SPIEGELHALTER Barbara (Lab)

Milton

Milton is a ward which has consistently elected a Liberal Democrat at local elections since 2002. Only in the good year for the Conservatives in 2008 have they failed to win this seat, although it became very close in 2006 and 2007 when the Lib Dems only held on by 61 and 37 votes.

Last year, the Lib Dem vote rose since 2007 by 2.8% whilst the Conservative vote fell by 10.2% which, in a bad year for the Lib Dems around the country was a pretty impressive performance. The Labour vote rose by 15.5%, from a very low base. When you take into account the lack of a UKIP candidate last year, the fall in the Conservative vote share is even more surprising.

Milton's population has a median age of 35, with 20.05% of the population being over 60 (8.41% over 75). 27.07% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 9.51% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 27.3% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.93% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.46% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.24%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 13.5% are Full-Time students: this is quite a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.

9.29% of the population are single-parent households. 11.37% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.


This year, the sitting Conservative councillor has stepped down and Joan Payne is the candidate fighting to save the seat but I don't think she will manage it, unless there is some anti-council feeling that she can feed off. Labour's doughty Michelle Treacher is running for the seat this year and she will be hoping to boost the Labour vote and not be caught out by any 'Vote Labour, elect a Tory' tactics. I would predict a straight Lib Dem gain here.

Lib Dem gain

(Just learnt that Cllr Sarah Dineage, the retiring Tory here, has defected to the Liberal Democrats over the last few days...what a place for defections this city is.)
2008 (2011)

Sarah Dinenage C 1835 48.2% (32.17%)
Alex Bentley LD 1584 41.6% (46.23%)
Ken Ferrett Lab 215 5.6% (21.6%)
Robbie Robinson UKIP 175 4.6% ( - )

Full candidate list: PAYNE Joan (Con), PURVIS Will (Lib Dem), TREACHER Michelle (Lab)

Eastney and Craneswater

2008 (2011)

This is an interesting ward which has swung from being comfortable-ish for the Liberal Democrats to being an ultra-marginal. In 2006 Conservative Luke Stubbs took the seat from the Lib Dems by 17 votes, in 2008 the Liberal Democrats held on by only 14 votes from the Conservatives. In 2010, Councillor Stubbs was re-elected with a slightly more comfortable majority of 162 but then it was back to being fairly safe for the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 473 (11.82%). This sort of makes it difficult to call as this is obviously quite a single-minded electorate.

The ward's population has a median age of 36, with 20.82% of the population being over 60 (8.94% over 75). 33.91% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 8.2% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 21.45% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 7.11% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.87% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.31%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 12.15% are Full-Time students: this is quite a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.

7.63% of the population are single-parent households. 11.43% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

This year, the Liberal Democrats are once again fielding Matthew Winnington who narrowly failed to regain the seat in 2010. He will be hoping that he can hold on to the vote share of last year and avoid losing votes to Labour's returning candidate, Rosalie Ward, and to the TUSC's Ben Norman who might gain votes on an anti-Coalition Government protest. The Conservative's Councillor Terry Henderson, having been deselected in Cosham, will hope his long experience and City and County Council level will gain him votes but it is not a good time for a Conservative to be standing given the bad economic news.

In many parts of the country the make up of this ward would make it safely Conservative and the ability of the Liberal Democrats to hold this seat is very impressive, whilst it would be tempting to see this as a swing year which would let the Conservatives in again, I think that Mr Winnington will hold this ward but probably by a less comfortable margin and with the vote share slipping.

Lib Dem hold

Cheryl Buggy LD 1559 46.9% (46.03%)
Gerry Oldfield C 1545 46.5% (34.21%)
Geoff Wade Lab 220 6.6% (15.07%)
(EDP 4.69%)


Full candidate list: HENDERSON Terry (Con), NORMAN Ben (TUSC), WARD Rosalie (Lab), WINNINGTON Matthew (Lib Dem).

St Thomas

2002 Con 46.32 LD 34.96% Lab 18.72%


St Thomas's Ward elected three Conservative councillor's back in 2002, but since then has swung to the Liberal Democrats with a squeezed Labour vote enabling the Lib Dems to hold on from the Conservatives, even if the result has been close. Majorities have been tiny: 102 (2006), 124 (2007), 29 (2008). This was interrupted by the General Election turnout when the Lib Dem's Rob Wood achieved a 750 majority and then all returned to normal with an eye-watering 83 majority last May.

This year the Liberal Democrat incumbent is stepping down and Sandra Stockdale, the Conservative candidate in the past 6 elections in this ward, is now the Liberal Democrat candidate, having defected in June of last year. The Conservatives are fielding Angus Ross, a councillor for the old St Thomas ward in the 1990s, whilst Labour are represented by local barrister, Taj Uddin. The TUSC candidate is Billy Perry.

St Thomas's population has a median age of 34, with 21.5% of the population being over 60 (9.73% over 75). 25.37%% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 6.13% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 22.29% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.04% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a fairly large 4.52% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 15.6%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 21.05% are Full-Time students: this is a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.

10.64% of the population are single-parent households. 13.31% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

This promises to be quite a fascinating seat because, more than any other, differential turnout and the strenghth of the Labour vote will be the deciding factor. Last May, both the Lib Dem (- 6.7%) and the Conservative vote (-5.07%) fell compared to 2007 and the big gain was for the Labour candidate (+11.77%). If the Labour vote holds steady or rises and the TUSC picks up some 'anti-Coalition' votes from the other parties and picks up votes from the large student population, this could be another long night for the candidates. Sandra Stockdale may hope to bring some supporters across from the Conservatives but whether that will be enough to counter those who might feel somewhat aggrieved by this particular gaome of political musical chairs is an open question. It would be ironic if, having joined the party that constantly squeezed her out, she is beaten by the Conservative candidate. The difficult economic news added to growing unhappiness among voters with the Coalition may lead to Labour having some success here, although not enough to come through the middle and take the seat.

I see this as being a toss-up seat with, I guess, the result dependent on who has the best 'get-out-the-vote' machine and whether a traditional Lib Dems' 'vote Labour, get a Tory' style of campaigning will work when their candidate is the former Tory standard bearer.

I am going to throw caution to the wind and predict a Tory gain here - just!

2008 (2011)

Paula Riches LD 1442 46.4% (40.86%)
Sandra Stockdale C 1413 45.4% (38.73%)
John Speigelhalter Lab 254 8.2% (20.41%)

St Thomas - PERRY Billy (TUSC), ROSS Angus (Con), STOCKDALE Sandra (Lib Dem), UDDIN Taj (Lab)

St Jude

St Jude ward is very similar in terms of political nailbiting to St Thomas- in 2002, three Conservative councillors were comfortably elected but the Liberal Democrats (with Hugh Mason, former Liberal and now Lib Dem) finally gained all the seats in 2010. The majorities have also been tiny: 73 (2003), 85 (2004), 88 (2006), 87 (2007), 112 (2008). This fairly consistent run of squeakers was interrupted by the General Election turnout in 2010 when the Conservatives' sole survivor, Linda Symes, was beaten by a robust 633 votes but it was back to normal last May with a LD majority of 135.

St Jude's population has a median age of 34, with 22.23% of the population being over 60 (an impressive 11.35% over 75). 33.57%% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 8.45% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 17.81% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.99% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a fairly large 4.11% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 13.34%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 16.74% are Full-Time students: this is a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.

4.9% of the population are single-parent households. 11.42% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.

This is a fairly wealthy ward that takes in expensive seafront properties and some of the wealthier suburbs. The statistics show it to have a much higher than average (Portsmouth) number of electors classified as large employers, in higher managerial occupations or higher professionals. It also has a higher than average number of full-time students and an impressive number of over 75s, who are usually the most motivated to vote. The ability of the Liberal Democrats to do well here is impressive and the race is clearly between them and the Conservatives. This isn't likely to be the most fertile territory for Labour, although they will be targeting the student vote and playing up the perception that the 'Granny Tax' has effected pensioners unfairly. Given that many will have gained by the higher tax cut, this might also be fertile territories for the Tories as well.

The TUSC are fielding Andy Waterman and, although there is a history of fringe/independent candidates doing fairly well here, I think that he has a hopeless cause (quite appropriate in the ward of St Jude). Labour's Julian Wright can comfort himself that last year Labour had their best performance since 2002 and a 10.21% rise since 2007, the best he can hope for is to hold or increase the Labour vote share.

Last year, the Liberal Democrats (-4.6%) and the Conservatives (5.61%) both suffered a decline in their share of the vote since 2007. The nailbiting is likely to continue this year but given that the Lib Dems are fielding veteran councillor Hugh Mason who has shown an ability to slightly outpoll his party, I reckon he will hold the seat with the Conservatives' David Tompkins becoming the latest disappointed Tory in St Jude. I am putting it in the 'Toss up' column though.

2008 (2011)

Hugh Mason LD 1265 46.7% (42.35%)
Terry Judkins C 1153 42.6% (38.44%)
Alwin Oliver Lab 184 6.8% (19.21%)
Mark Austin Ind 107 3.9% ( - )

Full candidate list: St Jude - MASON Hugh (Lib Dem), TOMPKINS David (Con), WATERMAN Andy (TUSC), WRIGHT Julian (Lab).

So - my predictions? (I reserve the right to change them before election day)

Liberal Democrat gains:

Milton
Baffins
Copnor

Labour Gains:

Paulsgrove
Nelson
Charles Dickens

Toss ups:

Cosham (probable Conservative hold)
St Thomas (probable Conservative gain)
St Jude (probable Liberal Democrat hold)

Lib Democrat holds:

Eastney and Craneswater
Central Southsea

Any comments (no nasty party political posturing please).