The Communion of Saints

The Communion of Saints
I hope there's room for me.

Welcome all - especially Mancunians.

Hello anybody lost in the blogosphere. Welcome to the ruminations of a politically left of centre, Man United supporting, blues loving, history-fixated, Catholic wanderer. Be warned, I am a bit of a curmudgeon.

Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Cornwall Unitary Election Results, 2013: Carrick

As with my overview of the forthcoming elections last April, I decided it would be fun to follow (as far as possible) the old district and borough boundaries.
The last time that local council elections took place in the now defunct (as of 2009) Carrick District Council, these were the results:

Party                      Votes    Percent    Seats
Conservative           9479    35.5%    19
Liberal Democrat    9044    33.9%    18
Independent            4172    15.6%     8
Labour                     1861     7.0%     1
Mebyon Kernow       1163     4.4%     0
UKIP                           767     2.9%     1
Liberal Party              225     0.8%     0

The Conservatives had an excellent election in 2007, gaining seven seats since 2003's district council elections and increasing the vote by 8.4%. They topped the poll and replaced the Liberal Democrats as the largest party on the council. They had candidates in 18 of the wards (1,- 2- and 3-member wards) this time, whereas they only had candidates in 13 at the last elections.
For the Liberal Democrats, they suffered painful losses across the district and lost control of the council. The Liberal Democrats lost eleven councillors in all in what had been a stronghold for them, with their vote-share falling from 39% to 33.9%. They were most damaged in Falmouth, remaining fairly strong in the Truro area.
Those running as Independent candidates took eight seats, two more than in 2008, gaining two in Trescobeas and one in Boslowick (losing one in Penryn to the Tories).
For Labour, no great joy here, putting candidates up in 10 wards (up from seven in 2003), they saw their vote share fall from 8.6% to 7% with them only winning in the Falmouth ward of Penwerris with stlwart councillor, Gerald Chin-Quee.
Mebyon Kernow only fielded candidates in 5 wards (as opposed to 8 in 2003), and did not come close to taking any of the seats. Their vote share fell from 7.5% to 4.4%.
UKIP had only one candidate, who managed to be elected to the last seat in the three-member Boslowick ward in Falmouth. An unexpected success at the time and very well done.
The Liberal Party had two candidates, one in Mylor and one in Carland, neither of them doing particularly well.

In 2009, the Unitary Council replaced the County and District/Borough Councils and the results for what would have been the old district were:

Party                      Votes   Percent     Seats
Conservative           9398    31.5%     7
Independent            9302    31.2%     9
Liberal Democrat     7567    25.3%     5
Labour                    1594     5.3%     0
Mebyon Kernow      1376     4.6%     0
Green Party               384     1.3%     0
Liberal Party              172     0.6%     0
BNP                             58     0.2%     0

A disappointing result for the Liberal Democrats, they fought every division and still fell into a distant third place with just over a quarter of the vote, they were unfortunate to just miss out in the Falmouth divisions of Arewenack (by 13 votes) and Penwerris (60 votes), as well as Truro Trehaverne (40 votes behind, in third place). Worryingly for them, they were not close in any of the other divisions.
The Conservative Party also fought every division and just topped the poll over those running as Independents. 7 councillors was not a bad haul and they came close in Falmouth Arewenack (23 votes behind, in third place) and Threemilestone and Gloweth (72 votes). It was a good election for the Conservatives and perhaps, with the Liberal Democrat weakness, showed the danger the Truro and Falmouth parliamentary seat was in come 2010.
Those who ran as Independents had an excellent election, winning 9 of the 17 divisions they contested and just failing to overtake the Tories in vote share. An Independent just failed to take Truro Trehaverne by 6 votes. Strong local campaigns, allied to unhappiness with the Liberal Democrats in the old county council and Labour in government certainly seems to have put the wind beneath the wings of those running outside of the party camps.
For Labour, an absolute disaster with them only polling anywhere near to decent in Falmouth Penwerris (20.3% and in third place) where the redoutable Gerald Chin-Quee was defeated. An absolutely shattering series of results for Labour in the 20 divisions in which it competed, managing only 5.3% of the total poll in the old Carrick district.
Mebyon Kernow competed in 11 of the divisions and made some progress, it would appear, from the unhappiness with the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. They only came close in Falmouth Arewenack (80 votes behind, in 4th place) but, as can be seen by how many came close, that reflects the very divided result in that division. Their best showing was in Truro Tregolls, where the Loic Rich achieved a 21.5% vote share, but never really threatened to take the seat. Not really a strong area for the party, managing 4.6% of the total vote.
The Green Party stood in 4 divisions polling best in Falmouth Penwerris (11.3%) and Truro Boscowan (10.6%).
The Liberal Party had candidates in only two divisions - Mouth Hawke and Portreath (5.5%) and Newlyn and Goonhavern (6.1%) - where they distinguished themselves by not doing worse than the hapless Labour candidates.
The BNP had one candidate, in Threemilestone and Gloweth , where she only managed to achieve 5.1% of the vote - but still finished ahead of Labour.

Coming to the 2013 Unitary Elections:

Party                     Votes    Percent    Seats
Independent           8136    32.2%     8
Conservative          6437    25.5%     8
Liberal Democrat    4173    16.5%     3
Labour                   2843    11.2%     2
UKIP                       2238     8.9%     0
Mebyon Kernow       842     3.3%     0
Green Party              615     2.4%     0

The biggest changes in the 2013 elections were due to the entrance of the UKIP candidates in 11 contests, although they only came sort of close in Falmouth Boslowick (52 votes behind the winner, but in 4th place) and Penryn East and Mylor (75 behind the winner, but in 4th place). They made fairly decent inroads in terms of votes but never really came close to being major players across the area.
The Liberal Democrats fought 15 divisions, 6 less than in 2009, which explains most, if not quite all, of the fall in their vote share. In Truro (including Threemilestone and Gloweth), they lost 2 of the seats they were defending, although Councillor Rob Nolan had a very comfortable victory in Redannick, and it is a worrying sign for the party that this formerly reliable area for them is slipping further away from their grasp. A slip from 5 divisions to 3 is not good for them.
For Labour, a tale of two ends of the district, with advances in Falmouth establishing the party as a major player here and the election of Hanna Toms and, former MP, Cathy Anderton on big swings showing the power of good campaigns.
In Truro, Labour failed to make much impact, despite the promising signs in a series of local byelections. One would assume that the absence of strong campaigning due to concentration being elsewhere would account for this. Also, the unfortunate fallout with former Labour Parliamentary candidate, Dr Charlotte MacKenzie, who ran as an Independent and coming a decent second in Trehaverne, won't have helped. At these elections, Labour ran candidates in every division and this will account for some of the increased vote share (they only fought 11 divisions in 2009), but 5.3% to 11.2% will bring them some satisfaction.
The Conservatives only ran in 18 divisions this time (all 21 last), and will be happy to have ended up with 8 seats rather than the 7 in 2009, even though their vote share slipped from 31.5% to 25.5%. They campaigned very well on the whole and were able to gain Falmouth Boslowick from the Independent Councillor, Steve Eva, due to a very split vote.
For the Independent cause, a slight increase in the vote share and a surprising victory for Loic Rich in Truro

Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu

Whilst it won't be quite so exact, it seems that defending Conservative, Councillor John Dyer, has been the only candidate really affected by the entrance of a UKIP candidate as the drop in his poll-share from 68.1% to 52.3% is not much more than the 14.3% that UKIP's Michael Warren gained.
I doubt it will worry the good councillor too much as he has a comfortable 270 majority over second place Independent candidate, Ross Treseder, who seems to have garner most of the Lib Dem vote from 2009 (25.6%).
In last place, unsurprisingly, came Labour's Peggy Wicks, who only managed to raise the Labour vote from the doldrums of 5.2% to a not much more comfortable 7.5%. I get the feeling that Labour didn't do much campaigning in the Truro end of the area.

Falmouth Arwenack

Unsurprisingly, and as predicted, a safe hold here for Conservative candidate Geoffrey Evans. In 2009, in the then named Gyllyngvase Division, Councillor Evans was challened by a renegade Tory called Ian Laws who came in a distant second place. In his absense, Mr Laws has seen a massive increase in his share of the vote to 68.9% of the vote (from 43.9% in the old Division in 2009).
After a fairly crowded field of candidates last time (6), the only other challengers this time were Labour's Robin Johnson and the Liberal Democrat's Catherine Thornhill. Labour gained the silver in this race, coming in second with 19.9% of the vote, managing to pick up the former Mebyon Kernow vote and some of the Lib Dems to increase form 8.5%.
For the Liberal Democrats, Ms Thornhill will be disappointed to have picked up only 11.3% of the vote and come in behind Labour.

Falmouth Boslowick

In the old Arnewack division, Independent councillor Steve Eva won with only 24.3% of the votes cast and a majority of 13. I had no idea who would win this Division and I was right to back out of guessing as it was won this time with a vote share of only 23 (twenty-three)%.
The victor this time was the Conservative Alan Jewell who edged out Mr Eva (21.9%)by 15 votes , Liberal Democrat Roger Bonney (20.9%) by 27 votes and UKIP's Mairi Hayworth (18.9%) by 52 votes. Indeed, Labour's Nicholas Jemmett (15.3%) was only 97 votes behind. I guess this is the mst balanced result in Cornwall, as it pretty much was in 2009.
Who will be the most disappointed? Mr Eva lost, so probably him, thoguh I guess he saw it coming, if not so close a result. Mr Bonney should really have taken this Division for the Liberal Democrats so suggests how far they have yet to come from 2009 in much of Cornwall. In the absense of Mebyon Kernow, both Mr Bonney and Labour's Mr Jemmett will have hoped to do better (though I accept that Labour's eyes were on other Falmouth battles). UKIP have a history here and, as with other places in Cornwall where they have run before, they seem to do less well where they are not such a novelty.

Falmouth Penwerris

I feel fairly please with myself here in that I predicted a Labour gain - fair enough, it was a Labour seat for a long time but that means nothing in Cornwall at these elections.
Labour worked this Division very hard and, although defending Independent councillor Grenville Chappel managed to hold on to his vote share of 28.4%, he was overtaken by Labour's impressive campaigner Hanna Toms, who managed to add 15.5% on the Labour vote to take the seat with a 78 majority, from third place in 2009.
I suspect Mr Chappel saw the writing on the wall as his small majority (56) and vote share were always liely to be at risk. Last time, the Liberal Democrats were the main challengers but this time they failed to put up a candidate in a place that they have a strong electoral history. However, former Liberal Democrat district councillor John Body did stand as an Independent and achieved a crditable 18.4% of the vote.
Coming in last place was UKIP's Amanda Wyner, who managed a 17% share of the vote.
A disappointing 28% turnout though. These turnouts are common in the urban areas of Cornwall.

Falmouth Smithick

I stated that I had no idea how this vote would go, although I saw that Labour had a chance with former MP Candy Atherton standing. She stuck her neck out as Labour's vote here in 2009 was abysmal (5.8%) although they had a history of polling strongly without winning.
Well, give her credit as she pulled off a stunning victory, raising the Labour vote to 33.4% and, in a very split field, achieving a flattering 160 majority.
In second place came town councillor Diana Merrett in the Independent cause, one of three Independents trying to claim the former (not defending) Independent councillor Mike Varney's mantle.
The Liberal Democrat's 19-year old candidate, Kenny Edwards, came in third with 16.3%, a big drop from the 27% of former county councillor Roger Bonney in 2009 but nothing to be ashamed of in the face of the undoubtedly professional and strong campaign of Ms Atherton.
For the Conservatives, Liz Ashworth came in next with a much reduced 13.8%, followed by Independent candidates Chris Smith (12.2%) and Tony Canton (7.8%).
Again, a not very healthy 28% turnout but higher than some it is better where the candidates/parties work harder.

Falmouth Trescobeas

My Prediction for this division was "Independent Saunby hold (but not by as much, and second place might be interesting)" and I am pretty happy with that. Cllr. Saunby managed to hold onto most of his vote share (38.4% from 41.7% in 2009) and it was Labour's Brod Ross who managed to bring the party from fifth place and 7.8% in 2009 to second place and 23.7% this time. A pretty remarkable result and a sign of the much more professional Labour Party team in Falmouth in these Unitary elections. Mr Ross, husband of former MP and now Labour councillor for Smithick, Candy Atherton, will be happy with this result.
In third place came UKIP's Carole Douglas who was testing the water for the party this time. I said she should have some success but she might be disappointed with only taking 12.8% of the vote.
Surely disappointed will have been experienced campaigner Vicky Eva to drop from second place in 2009 to fourth this time (22.1% to 11.1%).
The Conservative candidate, local businessman Peter Williams, won't have expected much but it is a poor fifth for them with only 7.8% of the vote (13.5% in 2009). The Green's Euan McPhee was firmly overshadowed in this race and managed only 3.6% of the vote.
Surely though, the real shocker is for the Liberal Democrats who not only trailed in seventh (and last) but managed to garner only 2.5% of the vote from 14.9% in 2009.
A more healthy 33% turnout here, again, I would suggest, a sign of a good campaign.

Feock and Playing Place

After the stepping down of Cornwall Council leader and sitting councillor Jim Currie after a pretty torrid time in County Hall, I thought this would be a tough result to predict but in the end the Conservative candidate, Steve Chamberlain, managed to achieve a small swing from Independent to Tory (0.2%) whilst increasing the vote share to 44% (40.3% in 2009).
Independent candidate Bob Richards managed a very creditable 38.4% (against Tomas Hill's 35.3% in 2009) and will be disappointed to have lost by 101 votes.
The decline of the Liberal Democrats in a seat they would previously win, continued apace with their candidate Christine Ryall managing only 10% of the vote (17.5% in 2009).
Labour still trailed in last but Jayne Kirkham managed to up the vote share to 7.6% (3.1% in 2009), probably gaining from the lack of an MK candidate and the fall in the Lib Dem vote (although that fall would have gone to the other candidates as well).
A heart-warming 48% turnout.

Ladock, St Clement and St Erme

One could never see Cllr Mike Eathorne-Gibbons losing this election, and so it proved with him increasinh his vote share from 41.3% to 57.4% this time - he would appear to have benefitted greatly from the absence of an Independent candidate on this occasion.
Taking a very decent second place this time was the Green Party's Jo Poland, who managed to push the Liberal Democrats into third place with a good showing of 20.2%, apparently gaining much of the Liberal Democrat and MK-PC vote from 2009.
For the Liberal Democrat's, Ian Jones could only manage to poll 14.7%, down from 24.2% last time.
Labour's Stuart Venison trailed in last with 7.7%, with no real sign of gaining any traction in this area.

Mount Hawke and Portreath

A brilliant result for Liberal Democrat councillor Joyce Duffin, who was re-elected with a stunning 67% of the vote (actually, 66.666 recurring). The lack of a Conservative candidate in this seat seems to have favoured Cllr. Duffin the most and she will be delighted with her 527 majority.
It may be argued that most of the Tory vote went they way fof UKIP hopeful, Eileen Lewis, who took 23.2% of the vote, but UKIP had picked up votes from lots of places in Cornwall, though I am sure the lion's share will be formerly Conservative.
The only other candidate was Labour's Phillip Knight, who can gain some comfort from increasing the Labour vote to 10.1% from the 4% shame of 2009.
A disappointing 34% turnout.

Newlyn and Goonhavern

Nearly a major upset here as Mebyon-Kernow's Rod Toms came within 26 votes of grabbing this seat Conservative Liz Shuttlewood. Ms Shuttlewood would normally think herself comfortably home with 46.2% of the vote (as was her predecessor, Cllr. Jinny Clark who had a 227 majority with only 40.3% of the vote in 2009).
Mr Toms was known to be campaigning hard, as I noted in my reflection at the time, but he almost pulled off a a remarkable feat. He obviously swept up the Liberal Democrat, Independent and Liberal votes. If he stands again, he might well do it next time.
In third place, Labour's Meg Tremayne will be satisfied to see Labour take 9.8% after the 4.2% share in 2009, but I bet she wouldn't have minded 27 of her votes going to Mr Toms in the circumstances.

Penryn East and Mylor

My prediction for this seat was 'Liberal Democrat gain (with no real confidence)'. How right I was to be somewhat circumspect as this was another amazing result. In 2009, COnservative Tony Martin took the seat with 39.9% of the vote and won it with a majority of 174 over then Independent (now Liberal Democrat) candidate, Judith Whiteley. This time, Councillor Martin held on with only 23.3% of the vote and a majority of 16 over Independent challenger, John Symons (22.2%). Ms Whitely (21.7%), a former district councillor, was only another 7 votes behind.
UKIP's Paula Clement achieved 18.2% of the vote and, even with that fairly modest share, was only 75 votes behind Mr Martin.
For Labour, Miriam Venner managed to increase her party's share of the poll to 8.4% and swapped places with MK-PC's David Garwood who took this election's wooden spoon with 6.2%.
I did speculate that it would be hard for any of the front-runners to pull away, and so it proved. It is another disappointing result for the Liberal Democrats who, even though their share of the vote on 2009 (15.1%) grew, had a seasoned candidate in Ms Whiteley who I certainly expected to do better and possibly win.

Penryn West

Another bad result for the Liberal Democrats coming off a very disappointing result in 2009. Their candidate, Cait Hutchings, having come just 18 votes behind Independent victor, Mary May, in 2009, must have expected to do much better - indeed, to win. Instead, her vote share slipped from 29.4% to 27.9%.
Cllr. May pulled off a great victory, impressively increasing her vote share from 31.8% in 2009 to 42.6% this time, whilst increasing her majority over Ms Hutchings to 138 votes.
UKIP's Martin Orders came in thrid with 19.6% of the vote with Labour's Jim Lloyd-Davies achieving 9.9%, a 4% rise on 2009.


Never a difficult result to predict, Independent Councillor Michael Callan was re-elected with 64.9% of the vote, a big leap from 2009 (47.2%) and a very hefty majority of 661.
The interest for me was the order that came below Mr Callan and second place fell to MK-PC's Paul Dunbar who managed to push the Tories out of second place with 13.3% of the vote. The Conservatives (Lisa Marshall) saw their vote share halved to 11.2% whilst the other Independent runner, Mark Langdon only managed 4th place with 5.9% of the vote.
Labour again trailed in last with only 4.8% of the poll, better than the 2.8% of 2009, but nowhere near the 13% they achieved in the last County Council elections of 2005. They have a lot to do here.
The lack of a Liberal Democratic candidate is surprising in a place where in 2005 they took over 50% of the vote but given the 9.5% of 2009, one should not be too surprised that they ducked out this time.
A great result for Mr Callan, an okay result for Mr Langdon, a deep disappointment for everybody else.

Probus, Tregony and Grampound

In 2009, Standalone Independent Councillor, Bob Egerton, was just elected with a third of the vote, beating the Tory candidate by 63 votes. This time, he has almost doubled his share of the vote with 66.1% and has a massive majority of 720 over the second-placed UKIP candidate, Steve Kendall who, despite the distant second place, pulled in a very acceptable first vote for UKIP of 20.7%.
The disappointed Conservatives' Sean Marshall only managed third place and 10.1%, 18.5% down on 2009.
Trailing in a a distant last with a shockingly awful 3.1% was Labour's Norman Roach, who should have hoped to do much better in the absence of the Lib Dems or MK-PC, most of whose vote seems to have swung behind Mr Callan.
The Liberal Democrats took over 43% of the vote here in 2005, are they now only going to stand in General Election years?


Councillor Julian German was never likely to suffer any kind of threat here, and so it proved with him easily being re-elected with 67.5% of the vote, an improvement on his 65.2% in 2009.
The only real interest in this election was whether former district council leader Fred Greenslade, having swapped parties from Liberal Democrat to Conservative, was likely to push him close. Despite his forty years of elected service, he was not able to boost the Tory vote and it fell back to only 17.4% (from 24.5% in 2009), which must have been quite a personal blow for him.
He at least kept UKIP in third place with Elizabeth Coleman picking up a disappointing 12.1% of the vote, compared to their success elsewhere.
For Labour, Callum MacLeod's hopes of a bit of a relaunch for Labour in this area was not at all successful, with him receiving a paltry 2.9% of the vote.
At least a 48% turnout was quite decent.

St Agnes

As predicted,a handy Liberal Democrat victory with new standard-bearer, Pete Mitchell, picking up a healthy 52.9% of the vote, only slightly down on the share in 2009 (58.4%).
Conservative candidate, Dawn Brown, must have hoped she would do better this time than in 2009, but she saw a small dip in her vote share to 34.3% (from 36.6%) and was 215 votes behind.
Only Labour managed to increase their share of the vote to 12.7% (from 5%), and candidate Robert Harrison will be pleased to have at least made a semi-decent showing, compared to some of his colleaues in the area.
A rather disappointing 32% turnout.

Threemilestone and Gloweth

This result is an absolutely personal humiliation for sitting Councillor Chris Pasco, who resigned from the Liberal Democrats (see my former commnetary as to the details) and decided to defend the division as an Independent. Well, the voters certainly wanted an Independent but they didn't want Mr Pascoe who came in a humiliating seventh and last place with only 3.8% of the poll and 36 votes. In 2009, he managed 36.6% of the poll and 411 votes. It is a defeat quite remarkable in its totality.
As for the Liberal Democrats' Moyra Nolan, she failed to capitalise on this and came in fourth with 15.6% of the vote. The victor was local builder and lifelong resident, Tim Deeble, standing as an Independent. With only 26.2% of the vote, he has a majority of 44 over another Independent candidate, trade unionist and NHS worker, John Humar (21.6% of the poll).
The Conservative candidate, Adam Desmonde came in next with 19% and must be disappointed not to have taken advantage of the split vote with the Tory getting 29.9% in 2009.
After Ms Nolan came, in fifth place, Labour's Philip Fenton, a student who spent the campaign revising so will probably pleased to have 7.2%, nudging the Labour vote up from its dismal 4.5% and last place at the last election.
Ken Hart, another Independent, came next with 6.7%.
I got this prediction wrong, but I did write: "There are seven candidates, 4 of them Independents, all waiting to make a fool of any prediction I might care to make".

Truro Boscawen

In this re-named and redrawn division "Defending" Councillor, Independent Bert Briscoe, was never likely to be under any threat here, and he easily gained re-election with 52.6% of the vote and a nice majority of 454. Maurice Valla for the Liberal Democrat's might have hoped to be in second place here, but he was pushed firmly back in the pack by Noel Krishnan, the COnservative candidate, who will not be too unhappy with 17.5% of the poll.
For the Greens, Truro Mayor Lindsay Southcombe just top the last three candidates with 10.4%, just edging out the afore-mentioned Mr Valla (9.8%) by 8 votes and Labour's Susan Street (9.7%) by another two.
Labour will be pleased to have increased their vote to a more acceptable level but may have hoped to do somewhat better on the basis of byelections results in Truro, Mr Valla will have little to be cheerful about but the Greens, Coservatives and, of course, the victorious Mr Briscoe, will have more to be satisfied about.

Truro Redannick

A slap-down victory here for sitting councillor Rob Nolan, who only just squeezed the Tory last time by 66 votes. I thought he might struggle, not least given the good results for the Tories and Labour in recent Truro byelections, but He was comfortable home with 52.9% of the vote. I failed to make a prediction here but am willing to accept I was wrong to be so uncertain.
Regular near-miss Conservative candidate, Lorrie Eathorne-Gibbons, can at least offer herself the small comfort that she wasn't left on tenterhooks during the count being soundly beaten by 387 votes and achieving a disappointing 23.8% share of the poll.
Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate Lance Dyer just led those trailing in with 8.5%, with Labour's Pamela Atherton (mother of former MP, Candy Atherton) increasing the Labour vote (on 2009) to 8.2%. In last place came Howard Newlove who saw his vote from last time fall to 6,6% as he was victim of a squeeze by Mr Nolan.
A good result for Mr Nolan and the Liberal Democrats.

Truro Tregolls

Hand on heart, I did not see this result coming. Congratulations to former MK-PC candidate, then Conservative supporter, and now Independent councillor Loic Rich, on his election here. He took 40.9% of the vote, taking this seat firmly from the grasp of the Liberal Democrats whose candidate, former district councillor Ros Cox, saw her party's share of the vote slump from 39% in the old Tregolls division to 19.3%.
In third place, with a less dramtic fall in the vote, came the Tory's Judy Cresswell, who achieved 16.2% of the poll. She will be happy to have held off UKIP's challenger, James Minihan, who managed to get his party 15% of the vote.
Labour's Margaret George failed to achieve much of an increase for Labour (6%) and the party was undoubtedly squeezed by the successful campaign of Mr Rich. Suffering the same fate was the Green Party's Godfrey Allen, coming last with 2.6%.
A bad result for all the parties really, with the talented actor, musician, and screenwriter (Mr Rich) grabbing his own unexpected political oscar.

Truro Trehaverne

I did not feel confident to pick a winner in this Division and opined, "The big questions are: who gets the Independent vote from last time and will the Liberal Democrat vote grow of fall?"
Well, the answer was, Dr. Charlotte MacKenzie gets most of the Independent vote, whilst defending Councillor Fiona Ferguson got about a third of it. Ms Ferguson, who quit as a Cabinet member over the issue of "lie detector tests" on those people claiming single person's council tax discount, has been rewarded by seeing her vote increase to 44.7% and a majority over the now second-placed Dr MacKenzie of 286 (only 6 votes in 2009).
For Dr. MacKenzie, it is a decent result and perhaps asks the question of how well might she have done if she had not fallen out with the Labour Party (maybe worse?)? Her 22.1% is decent enough and she is now a City Councillor as well.
In third place, on 13.8%, came local B&B owner, UKIP's Michael Inglefield. In fourth place was the Green candidate, Steve Angove, with 6.9%, followed by Labour's Richard Lees with 6.7%. I would contend that they will both be very disappointed to have done so badly.
I have left answering the second big questioned I posed until now - "will the Liberal Democrat vote grow or fall?", the answer is that it collapsed, from 30.2% and only 40 votes from victory in 2009 to a disasterous last place and only 5.6% this time. Truro, historically a very strong city for the Liberal Democrats, has seen its vote fall back even from the low-point of 2009, with the exception of the excellent personal result for Rob Nolan in Redannick.

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