The Communion of Saints

The Communion of Saints
I hope there's room for me.

Welcome all - especially Mancunians.

Hello anybody lost in the blogosphere. Welcome to the ruminations of a politically left of centre, Man United supporting, blues loving, history-fixated, Catholic wanderer. Be warned, I am a bit of a curmudgeon.

Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Cornwall Council elections: Carrick

Carrick was a district council in Cornwall, on the 'ankle' of the peninsula. Its council was based in Truro. The main centres of population, industry and commerce were the city of Truro and the towns of Falmouth and Penryn. The district was created on 1 April 1974 by the merger of the municipal boroughs of Truro, Falmouth and Penryn, and the Truro Rural District. It was abolished with creation of the Cornwall Unitary Authority on 1st April 2009.  

Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu
Chacewater is a village and civil parish, approximately three miles east of Redruth. The hamlets of Carnhot, Cox Hill, Creegbrawse, Hale Mills, Jolly's Bottom, Salem, Saveock, Scorrier, Todpool, Twelveheads and Wheal Busy are in the parish. The population in the 2001 census was 1,517.
Kenwyn is a settlement and civil parish. a suburb of the city of Truro and is situated half-a-mile north of the city centre. It gives its name to one of three rivers that flow through the city.
Baldhu is a former mining village and it is situated above the Carnon Valley 3 miles west of Truro.

In the 2009 election, this seat was won by Conservative district councillor, John Dyer. The former county councillor was Frederick Dyer, who I think to be the same person. Former lecturer, and small farm owner, Councillor Dyer is vice-chairman of the Council Member Champion for Agriculture and County Farms.
As the Liberal Democrats had previously had district councillors in this area, I am surprised that they have no candidate here.
Standing as an Independent is former Conservative councillor, Ross Treseder, a building construction contractor. He will doubtless try to attract former supporters and those who are unhappy with the Conservatives at the moment.
Standing for the Labour Party is Peggy Wicks and she has a real job on her hands. There have been signs of Labour growth in local Truro byelections so should have some target in mind. As the only centre-left candidate, she should hope to greatly improve on the 5.2% of the Labour wasteland of 2009.
UKIP are running a candidate, Redruth-based Michael Wicks, who should serve to undermine the Tory vote a little but, with 68.1% of the vote last time, Cllr Dyer shouldn't really worry too much.

Prediction: Conservative hold

Ladock, St Clement and St Erme

Ladock is a village and civil parish, about six miles northeast of Truro. St Clement is a civil parish and village, southeast of Truro in the valley of the Tresillian River. There is a smaller village at Malpas in the south of the parish. The urban part of the parish of St Clement was incorporated into Truro in 1895.
St Erme is a civil parish and village.
In 2009, the Conservative Mike Eathorne-Gibbons won this division with a comfortable 254 majority over an Independent, and 255 over the third-placed Liberal Democrat, which tells you that it isn't as safe as it might seem. There is no Independent this time so Ian Jones for the Lib Dems will hope to close the gap om Councillor Eathorne-Gibbons and take this seat from him.
Labour's candidate Stuart Venison cannot really fail to improve on the awful 3.8% the party managed last time, but he will hope to eat into the Liberal Democrat vote as well as a sign of the party recovering in this area.
For the Greens, Jo Poland will also be hoping to challenge the Liberal Democrats and build a good vote base for future elections.
As with all of the candidates though, the real question is as to the destination of the Independent votes from 2009.

Prediction: Conservative hold


Falmouth is a town, civil parish and port on the River Fal on the south coast of Cornwall. It has a total resident population of 21,635 (2001 census).
Falmouth is famous for its harbour. Together with Carrick Roads, it forms the third deepest natural harbour in the world, and the deepest in Western Europe. It is also famous for being the start or finish point of various round-the-world record-breaking voyages, such as those of Sir Francis Chichester and Dame Ellen MacArthur. Falmouth Docks Police enforce the law in the docks.
While Falmouth's maritime activity has much declined from its heyday, the docks are still a major contributor to the town's economy. It is the largest port in Cornwall. Falmouth is still a cargo port and the bunkering of vessels and the transfer of cargoes also keep the port's facilities busy. The port is also becoming popular with cruise ship operators. Further up the sheltered reaches of the Fal there are several ships laid up, awaiting sailing orders and/or new owners/charterers.
With its Georgian town houses converted into guest houses and small hotels, often overlooking one of the beaches, Falmouth has proven a popular holiday destination and it is now primarily a tourist resort.
There have been several boundary revisions here.

Falmouth Arwenack

Geoffrey Evans was comfortably elected to the old Gyllyngvase division in 2009 with no real close challengers in a large field (six candidates); it might be less comfortable for him this time as he is only facing two challengers, one Liberal Democrat and one from Labour. Councillor Evans has been the mayor of Falmouth since 2009, having previously held the post from 2000-2002. He was a district councillor until the creation of the unitary authority.
For the Liberal Democrats, Catherine Thornhill is standing and will hope to reverse the poor election result from 2009. Lib Dems have won here many times in the past and she has reason to feel confident.
For Labour, Robin Johnson will be fighting to build up the Labour vote here and, with an unpopular national coalition government, will want to reduce the Lib Dem vote significantly. Labour hopes in Falmouth are concentrated elsewhere and getting a good vote should be his aim. An Independent took second place last time in the shape of renegade Tory, Ian Laws, and he probably cost the Lib Dems a lot of votes at the time, even though he would not be a particularly liberal figure.
Unless he really botches up this election, Cllr Evans is safe.

Prediction: Conservative hold.

Falmouth Boslowick

In the new Arwenack division, Independent Councillor Steve Eva pulled off the almost unbelievable victory with only 24.3% of the vote, 13 ahead of the Liberal Democrat, 31 ahead of the Conservative, 80 ahead of Mebyon Kernow and 116 ahead of Labour. A really tight race which shows that a large field can cause amazing results.
A former Liberal Democrat district councillor, Councillor Eva has stood as an Independent at other times as well. He is facing an equally tough battle this year, with former county and district councillor Roger Bonney picking up the Lib Dem banner. A former mayor, Mr Bonney has a top target seat that he shouldn't be able to miss out on.
Also displaying high hopes should be Conservative candidate, chalet and camping park owner Alan Jewell, but this year may not be conducive to a Conservative victory, with unpopularity both nationally and locally. A town councillor, he was elected in a by election in 2009 but times have changed since then.
For Labour, Nicholas Jemmett will be trying to show that voters really are returning to the Labour party and building up a big enough vote to threaten to grab the seat. It might be possible but seems a bit too far off the mark to be honest.
Hindering Mr Jewell is company director Mairi Hayworth, who will be looking to pick up votes from everywhere but might be more attractive to unhappy Tories. UKIP have a history here, picking up nearly 20% of the vote in the 2007 district elections. She might well be the one to watch this year. Cllr Eva will be feeling the heat and I suspect his pacing of the floor and spilling of coffee on election night will cause him to bring his skills as a carpet cleaner to bear.
Prediction: No idea - could be anybody.
Falmouth Penwerris

This was another amazing result in 2009 with Independent Grenville Chappel taking the division with only 28.4% of the vote and a 56 majority over second-placed Liberal Democrat and 82 over Labour's long-standing county and district councillor, Gerald Chin-Quee. The Conservatives weren't too far off the chase either.
This time, Councillor Chappel, a Project Co-ordinator at Beacon Community Regeneration, is facing a former Liberal Democrat district councillor, John Body, a local town councillor.
For Labour, Hanna Toms is in for Labour - from Truro, youth worker Ms Toms has shown herself to be a doughty campaigner, and managed the not inconsiderable feat of fighting two Town council byelections in Truro Boscawen and producing a Labour vote of 246 at both elections, the second time almost overtaking the Liberal Democrat in a place where Labour has been crushed for years. Ms Toms has been working this division for a while and it'll be interesting to see how she does in what is a solid Labour target.
For UKIP, Amanda Wyner will be testing as yet unchecked waters for the party locally and we will have to see what she does and whom it most effects, although, as I have pointed out in other places, it tends to be Tories who are most attracted.
Whilst not being from Falmouth may work against Ms Toms, this is a seat that Labour must surely win if there is any sign of recovery, let alone a good one.

Prediction: Labour gain

Falmouth Smithick

Technically, nobody is defending the new Smithick division so it should be an interesting election. . With Independent (formerly a Conservative district councillor) Councillor Mike Varney not standing this time, there are three candidates standing as various kinds of Independent, a Liberal Democrat, a Conservative and a Labour candidate.
The most high-profile figure is former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton who is really sticking her neck out here to go for a seat where Labour's vote was swamped last time. Labour have done okay in the past, without winning. She must hope that dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats in the national Coalition, along with no defending councillor, will give here a good shot at the seat.
For the Liberal Democrats, student Kenny Edwards must be using all the energy of his 19 years to fight this particular battle. My memory of campaigning at that age was of exhilaration and shock, so best of luck.
Of the Independents, Diana Merrett is a town councillor who courted some controversy when she was suspended from the town council for two months in November 2011 for serious breaches of the council's code of conduct relating to her continued contact with a suspended (and later dismissed) council officer. Her punishment wasn't too harsh and she is recognised as a hard-working councillor.
Retired architect Christopher Smith is also standing under the Independent standard; a very active community worker, Mr Smith might well pick quite a number of votes and he clearly has the Liberal Democrats in his sights for the zero-percent Council Tax rise, which he sees as short-sighted and damaging to local services.
Tony Canton is the last of the Independents but I have not been able to find out anything about him
For the Conservatives, Carnon Downs resident, and retired company director, Liz Ashcroft will be keen to improve on the decent vote last time and to eat into the independently-inclined votebase. With a divided field with Labour perhaps dragging down the Lib Dem votes, Ms Ashcroft may well have a chance.
A very party-political campaign could backfire here.

Prediction: Absolutely no idea.

Falmouth Trescobeas

In 2009, Independent Councillor David Saunby was comfortably elected with 41.7% of the vote in a divided field of 5 candidates. Since then, he has won a town council by election in October of 2012, where he won a crushing victory with a majority of 305 votes over his closest rival - this in a town council byelection! This time he is in a field of seven candidates, with Labour/Co-op, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Green, UKIP and Independent former district councillor Vicky Eva taking him on.
The byelection was caused by the resignation from the town council of Vicky Eva, who was bested by Councillor Saunby at the last election. Mrs Eva, finance manager at Fit'N'Fun Kids nursery in Falmouth, is no political novice and will be aiming to take advantage of the competing parties to close the gap on Cllr Saunby. Wife of Cornwall Councillor Steve Eva (see above, Boslowick), I think, if she wants to, she may well give the incumbent a run for his money.
For the Liberal Democrats, Rhun Davies will hope to help the party back to winning ways in this part of Falmouth but he might find himself being squeezed between the two Independents.
The Conservatives have local man, Peter Williams, proprietor of Peter Williams Flooring and Ceilings Limited of Redruth. The Tories have not done much here for years and there is reason to expect that to change at this election. In the town by election, they slipped to third.
For Labour &Co-op, experienced Labour candidate, Brod Ross, is hoping to return Labour to its former strength in Trescobeas when it could take 40% of the vote in a straight fight with the Lib Dems - the problem is, this isn't a straight fight. In the 2010 town byeletion, Labour managed to take their vote from 2009's 7.8% to 18.2%, even receiving more votes than they did in the higher turnout of 2009. No Liberal Democrat stood in that by election, but Mebyon Kernow did. Post the national coalition, it might be a straw in the wind for Labour. Mr Ross is the husband of former Labour MP, Candy Atherton (standing in Smithick) and son of Betty Ross (Labour candidate in Mabe, Perranarworthal and St. Gluvias). Ms Atherton's mother, Pamela Atherton, is standing in Truro Redannick. A real family affair.
For the Greens, environmental scientist and part-time lecturer Euan McPhee is raising the banner but he is likely to be firmly overshadowed by the bigger characters in the race. A committed Methodist, he had been actively raising money for Merryn's Trust, to help one of the young people from his church to get a special wheelchair to enable her to return to study A-levels at Truro College after becoming paralysed following a rare blood disorder. A nice bloke - he won't win.
Finally, UKIP's Carole Douglas has the task of introducing UKIP to local politics in this division and, if the national polls are right, she should have some sort of success.

Prediction: Independent Saunby hold (but not by as much, and second place might be interesting)

Mount Hawke and Portreath
Mount Hawke is a village in Cornwall, approximately seven miles west-northwest of Truro, three miles northeast of Redruth, and two miles south of St Agnes.The village is in a former mining area in the administrative civil parish of St Agnes. The settlements bordering Mount Hawke are Banns (northwest) and Menagissey (south); Porthtowan is to the west.
Portreath is a civil parish, village and fishing port on the north coast of Cornwall, about three miles (5 km) northwest of Redruth.
The village extends along both sides of a stream valley and is centred around the harbour and beach. West of the harbour entrance and breakwater are two sandy beaches which are popular with holidaymakers and surfers. Whilst its 2001 census population was shown as 1,337, its present electorate is about 1,100.
In 2009, there were eight candidates in this division, won by Liberal Democrat, Joyce Duffin, with a vote share of 36.6% and a majority of 99 over the Conservative district councillor, Eugene Hope.
This time, there are only 3 candidates (praise the Lord) but none of them is Conservative which seems astonishing. It is of course possible that Mr Hope was the Tory party here but, nonetheless, it is a surprise.
Hoping to sweep up the unrepresented Tory votes is UKIP's Eileen Lewis who might do fairly well here but there is no guarantee that she will pick up all Tories, many of whom have no love for UKIP.
For Labour, Phillip Knight will hope to gain the votes of those who would have voted for the Liberal and Mebyon Kernow candidates last time, as well as gain votes from unhappy voters who plumped for the Lib Dems in the past. It is not going to be a winning campaign for him but, given that Labour did so badly last time (4%), the only way is up. He will be happy to be well into double figures.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold


Penryn is a civil parish and town, on the Penryn River about 1 mile northwest of Falmouth. The population was 6,227 in the 2001 census. Although latterly overshadowed by nearby Falmouth, Penryn was once an important harbour in its own right throughout the medieval period exporting granite and tin.
Penryn East and Mylor
Mylor is a civil parish,  approximately five miles north of Falmouth. Mylor Bridge is the largest village in the parish. Mylor is a maritime parish and is bounded by water on three sides: Restronguet Creek to the north, Carrick Roads to the east and Falmouth Harbour to the south. To the west it is bounded by St Gluvias and Perranarworthal parishes.
In 2009, Conservative candidate Tony Martin was elected with just under 40% of the vote, 174 ahead of  Independent candidate, and fellow district councillor, Judith Whiteley. Ms Whiteley is back for a rematch but this time she is the Liberal Democrat candidate.
Ms Whitely will doubtless hope that her personal profile, joined to the 249 votes the Lib Dems received last time, will win her back the seat - voters don't always work that way.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, David Garwood will be hoping to improve on the 9.6% from last time; I would suggest that more punchy leaflets than the essay form he has put out might best grab attention.
Miriam Venner carries the flag for Labour; the Curriculum Area Manager for Media and Performing Arts at Camborne College, Ms Venner will be hoping to increase Labour's 5.9% share of the vote to something more respectable, whilst avoiding a Tory-Lib Dem squeeze. Labour used to have a decent amount of support in Penryn and in Mylor.
Independent John Symons will be targeting all those voters who feel let down by parties or who feel, as has been the history in this division, that an Independent candidate better serves at local level.
UKIP are in this race as well with Paula Clements. Cllr Martin will not be best pleased but in such a busy race, it will be a battle for either of the front-runners to pull away.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain (with no real confidence)
Penryn West
A very close run election in 2009 with Independent, Mary May, taking just 31.8% of the vote and beating the Liberal Democrat Cait Hutchings by just 18 votes. Both town councillors, the ladies have returned for a rematch.
Hoping to prove that Labour are back in the political game in this area is Jim Lloyd-Davies, a former BT engineer, who will been hoping that dissatisfaction with the Con-Ind coalition in County Hall and the Con-Lib Dem coalition in Westminster will attract traditional Labour voters back and prevent a repeat of the 5.9% of the vote Labour received in 2009.
There is no Conservative candidate this time, so the right-wing flank is being represented by Martin Orders of UKIP, about whom I know nothing.
The question really is what will happen to the Conservative vote (15.6%) and other Independent vote (16.5%) from last time? It has been a strong Lib Dem area in the past so I will lean towards Mrs Hutchings.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Probus, Tregony and Grampound

Probus is a civil parish and village, famous for having the tallest church tower in Cornwall. Tregony is a civil parish and village lying on the River Fal. Grampound is a village six miles west of St Austell. Grampound with Creed is the civil parish of which the village of Grampound and the village of Creed are the main settlements. Since 2009, the Cuby civil parish has been added to the division whilst St Michael Penkivel has transferred to the Roseland division.
In 2009, Independent Bob Egerton won the Probus division with 33.3% of the vote, securing a majority of 63 over the Conservatives. Councillor Egerton sits as a Standalone Independent, not part of the Independent Group in coalition at County Hall. He is the Member Champion for Information Management and Transparency (no, me neither).
The big story of the last election was the absolute collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote with the former district councillor, Fred Greenslade, seeing his vote share fall to 14.6%. This used to be a fairly safe Lib Dem seat, so the fact they are not standing now is indicative of them no longer seeing it as worth targeting, with better prospects elsewhere.
This time, the Conservatives field Sean Marshall, who will hope that the fact that UKIP candidate, Steve Kendall, seems to live a long way away from the division will make it less likely that he will gain support. UKIP's presence won't help though.
For Labour, party stalwart Norman Roach surely can't fail to raise the vote above the 2.2% of 2009. Whilst Cllr Egerton will hope to gain from the lack of a Liberal Democrat or Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate and as the only Independent candidate on this occasion (there was another in 2009, taking 16.1% of the vote), Labour should also hope to make some progress as the only left-of-centre choice.

Prediction: (Standalone) Independent hold
Newlyn and Goonhavern

Goonhavern is a village in north Cornwall, about two miles east of Perranporth. In 2001, it had a population 1,060.
In 2009, this division was easily won by Conservative, Jinny Clark, but she is not defending the seat this time and is replaced by Lisa Shuttlewood, a former nurse, hotelier and now lingerie shop owner in Newquay. Ms Shuttlewood is a Newquay town councillor, having won her seat in a byelection in August of 2011.
For the Liberal Democrats, Newquay town councillor John Rainbow will hope to reclaim the area for the party. The Lib Dems were 227 votes behind last time and only 26 votes ahead of an Independent in third place. Whilst there is no Independent this time, the presence of Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall candidate, Rod Toms, will be an added challenge. The Liberal Party had a candidate last time but their North Cornwall presence has been reduced to the one candidate in Four Lanes division.
Dr Toms, a parish councillor, is campaigning hard and is hopeful of a breakthrough here although it has been a while since an MK-PC candidate has stood for a large council election.
For Labour, Meg Tremayne will be looking to lift the vote from the basement 4.2% of last time.
A tough seat to predict with a drop in the Tory vote likely to be matched by a divided opposition.

Prediction: Conservative hold

Feock and Playing Place

Feock is a coastal civil parish and village, about 5 miles south of Truro at the head of Carrick Roads on the River Fal. To the south, the parish is bordered by Restronguet Creek and to the east by Carrick Roads and the River Fal. To the north it is bordered by Kea parish and to the west by Perranarworthal parish. The 2001 census recorded the population as 3,505. Playing Place is a village southwest of Truro.
Kea  is a civil parish and village in a former mining area south of Truro. Kea village is situated just over one mile southwest of Truro. The 2001 census recorded the population as 1,516.
In 2009, present Cornwall Council leader, Jim Currie, was elected. A long time district and county councillor, Mr Currie resigned as a cabinet member in protest at the position on privatisation of council services held by the then Conservative Group and Council leader, Alec Robertson. Councillor Currie was elected leader after a council vote of no confidence in Cllr Robertson. It has not been a happy time for Cllr Currie, with defections from his party, including Cabinet members, and having to face a budget debacle when several renegade members of his group rebelled and voted with the liberal Democrats for a 0% rise in the council tax. He sacked Cabinet member Stephen Rushworth after that vote. It is no surprise that he has decided to step down. Local voters might be annoyed with the way they perceive that Cllr Currie has been treated and that might cost them.
In his place, the Conservatives have chosen Steve Chamberlain, who stood in Truro Moresk last time, to defend Cllr Currie's fairly slim majority of 109 from last time. The  main challenger then was an Independent, Tomas Hill. He is replaced in the Independent cause by town councillor Bob Richards. Mr Richards will hope that he can pick up the Independent vote and the vote of those unhappy with the local and national governments.
The Liberal Democrats did badly here last time in a seat they would previously win. They came third with 17.5% of the vote. Their candidate, Christine Ryall, will need to campaign hard.
Not as hard as Labour candidate Jayne Kirkham; Labour's share of the vote was only 3.1% in 2009 and the party will need to avoid being squeezed even further. Given the unpopularity of the national government, it is unlikely and there should be some bounce for them here.

Prediction: Hard to predict.

St Agnes

St Agnes is a civil parish and a large village on the north coast of Cornwall about five miles north of Redruth and ten miles southwest of Newquay. The population of the parish is recorded as 7,257, whilst that of the village was 2,230.
Historically, St Agnes and the surrounding area relied on fishing, farming and mining for copper and tin. There were also iron foundries and an iron works, stamps and crazing mills, a smelter, blowing houses and clay extraction. By the 1930s mining and related industries had nearly ceased and by the 1950s the area had very little industrial commerce. Instead, the area became a bedroom community for workers in the surrounding towns and cities like Newquay and Truro, a desired retirement community and a favored holiday spot. The mining history is part of the draw for tourists, like the Blue Hills Tin Streams where tourists can see tin work demonstration. St Agnes village is relatively self-sufficient with local shops and business enterprises that support the village itself and the surrounding farming country.
A good old-fashioned three-way party battle, in 2009 St Agnes division was handily won by Liberal Democrat Les Donnithorne. This time, the Lib Dem candidate is Peter Mitchell who should have little trouble holding the seat, unless Labour manages to raise its vote share enough to bring it into play for the Conservatives.
Hoping for this is the Conservative candidate, town councillor Dawn Brown. She stood here in 2009 but, even in a good year for the Tories and a poor one for the Lib Dems in 2009, she was still 316 votes behind. Councillor Donnithorne had been around for a long time so she must hope that his standing down will open a door for her.
For Labour, Robert Harrison's intention must be to try to regain the decent vote the party used to be able to achieve in this area.

Predition: Liberal Democrat hold

Threemilestone and Gloweth

Threemilestone is a small village in the civil parish of Kenwyn, three miles west of Truro, Gloweth is a housing estate west of Treliske on the outskirts of Truro.
When I come to reflect upon my choice to give an overview of Cornwall, it is this kind of candidate make-up that will cause me to shudder - There are seven candidates, 4 of them Independents, all waiting to make a fool of any prediction I might care to make.
Actually, maybe not so terrible a choice as one of the Independents is the sitting Councillor, Chris Pascoe, elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2009. Councillor Pascoe quit the Liberal Democrats in protest against the actions of the national party and the introduction of the “pasty tax”. The Lib Dem group leader had taken him off the strategic planning committee after controversial plans for 1,500 homes on a site near Mr Pascoe’s home were approved by one vote and it is suggested that this is the reason for his resignation. Cllr Pascoe rejects this, saying he had been mulling leaving the party for a while.
For the Liberal Democrats, Moyra Nolan (whose husband is the Lib Dem councillor and candidate in Truro Redannick) will be aiming to keep the division in the Lib Dem colours and will hope signs of Lib Dem decline in local Truro byelections don't undermine her chances. A Blood Service worker, she will have to hope that she can squeeze every vote Labour can hope for. The famous bar charts are already in evidence, totally ignoring the Independents.
The Conservatives were second here in 2009 and their candidate, town councillor Adam Desmonde, will be fairly confident of coming through this pack, not least since he won the the 2012 byelection in Truro Boscawen ward, where the Lib Dem vote was seriously reduced, with much of it going across to the Labour Party. If this pattern repeats here, it could be good for the Tories, although there have been a drop in the support for the Tories in the polls since then, along with the series of splits and defections in the party in County Hall. I am not sure running on a headline of "Four Years of Delivery" is a sensible one though.
For Labour, the sacrificial lamb is Philip Fenton, co-founder of the Falmouth and Exeter University (FXU)
Labour Students Society and, as he admits, deeply involved in revision. Whilst Labour might have had a hope of a decent vote with a good campaign here, they have better chances elsewhere and Mr Fenton is undoubtedly just giving locals a chance to vote Labour. I think Labour's vote will increase from the dismal 4.5% of 2009, but I am not sure by how much.
Independent candidate Tim Deeble is a lifelong resident of Threemilestone and local builder and served as a parish councillor. His leaflet shows the candidate trick of standing next to things, whether he has learnt the trick of winning is another question.
NHS worker John Humar is another Independent, a union activist and charity worker, he will be sharing the risk of disappearing in the crowd here.
The final candidate is Ken Hart, chairman of Threemilestone Angling Club (I think it is the same man). I know little else.
The Lib Dem trick of pretending Cllr Pascoe doesn't exist here is a risky one and I think this division could go any of three ways.
Prediction: Lib Dem hold (or Conservative gain)


Perranporth  is a small seaside resort town on the north coast of Cornwall, 6 miles southwest of Newquay and 7 miles northwest of Truro. Perranporth and its 3 miles long beach face the Atlantic Ocean. In the 2001 census, it had a population of 3,066 and is the largest settlement in the civil parish of Perranzabuloe (pop 5,382 (2001 census). it is home to no less than 16 masonic bodies.
In 2009, Independent Councillor Michael Callan won this division very easily with more than double the vote of the second-placed Conservative. I cannot see the new Conservative candidate, Lisa Marshall, causing him too much concern this time either.
The Liberal Democrats are not fielding a candidate and for those who wish to vote for a party of the centre-left, they have the option of the Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate, Paul Dunbar, or Labour's Simon Coley. MK-PC have done fairly well here in the past so will have some ambition to pick up up a good number of votes. For Labour's Simon Coley, the distant sounds of "Things....can only get better" will lift the spirits in the face of the awful 2.8% from 2009.
Challenging for the Independent vote is Mark Langdon. I know nothing about him.
Local sub-postmaster and gallery owner Cllr Callan should be safe enough this time, it is the order below him that is of interest in this election.

Prediction: Independent hold


St Just in Roseland is a civil parish and village on the Roseland peninsula The village is situated six miles south of Truro and two miles north of St Mawes.
This  division was easily won by Independent, Julian German, in 2009, taking 65.2% of the votes cast.
Councillor German, formerly the Cabinet Mamber for Climate, is a promoter of the Cornish language, which he speaks.
Standing against him this year is former district council leader, Fred Greenslade, who was a councillor for 40 years until 2009. He was once a Liberal Democrat but is now standing as a Conservative. At the last election, the Conservatives received 24.5% of the vote and Mr Greenslade will hope his high profile and experience will play in his favour.
There is nobody from the Liberal Democrats this time so Labour candidate, Callum MacLeod, can hope to give the party a good relaunch in this division, which they haven't fought in for a number of years.
UKIP are fielding Elizabeth Coleman and, as with the Labour Party, it will be interesting to see how they go on in this new area for them.

Prediction: Independent hold


Truro is a city and civil parish. The city is the centre for administration, leisure and retail in Cornwall, with a population recorded in the 2001 census of 17,431. Truro urban statistical area, which includes parts of surrounding parishes, has a 2001 census population of 20,920. By 2010 the city's population had increased to 19,134 and its surrounding urban area to 23,000 as based on the results of the population of Cornwall in 2010. It is the only city in the county, and the most southern city in Mainland Great Britain. Truro initially grew as an important centre of trade from its port and then as a stannary town for the mining industry. The city is well known for its cathedral (completed in 1910), cobbled streets, open spaces and Georgian architecture. Places of interest include the Royal Cornwall Museum, the Hall for Cornwall, Cornwall's Courts of Justice and Cornwall Council.
Since the days of the late, great Liberal MP, Devid Penhaligon, Truro has been a bastion for the Liberal Democrats with the old traditional Labour voting area swinging strongly to them. With the retirement of the Mr Penhaligon's successor, Matthew Taylor, in 2010, the Truro and Falmouth constituence fell the the Conservatives by 435 votes. The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that Labour has shown signs of rebuilding a base in Truro in two byelections in the city's Boscawen ward, very much at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. This election is important for the Liberal Democrats to gauge how they now stand with such an unpopular coalition in Westminster. Mr Penhaligon died in a road accident in 1987 and politics is much sadder for it. His cousin, actress Susan Penhaligon, recently quit the Lib Dems over the government's Benefit changes, it'll be interesting to see if that plays out at all in people's voting intentions.
There have been a series of boundary changes here and the names of the divisions may not correspond exactly with the 2009 divisions of the same name.
Truro Boscawen

As if to prove my last point, this division is being defended by Independent Councillor Bert Biscoe who presently represents the Moresk division. Councillor Biscoe was elected to the old county council in 1997,. He is the Cabinet member for Transportation, Highways and Environment and campaigns for an improved rail network in Cornwall.
For the Liberal Democrats, city councillor Maurice Vella is running; an independent architecture and planning professional, Mr Vella has strong views on planning issues in the City of Truro. A former district councillor when Moresk was a two seat-ward, he will have a battle on his hands to unseat Cllr Biscoe as the Lib Dems do not tend to top the poll here.
For the Conservatives, local restaurant  manager, Noel Krishnan is hoping to be the first black Conservative elected to Cornwall Council. I feel that the the Conservatives are likely to be caught between the two former district councillors here.
I am surprised that there is no candidate from Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, given that they polled a decent 153 votes in the town council byelection the Moresk Ward.
Labour are represented by Susan Street who will be pleased that MK-PC aren't standing as there is a good chance to build up the Labour position here, not least that in coming third in the 2010 byelection, they still managed to more than double their actual number or votes cast in the old division in 2009, even though the turnout was less than 17%. Labour is showing strong signs of recovery in Truro and this should be a decent enough result for them if they can avoid being squeezed.
For the Green Party, this year's mayor, Lindsay Southcombe is hoping to put in a good showing to make this election even  more interesting.

Prediction: Independent hold

Truro Redannick

Defending this seat is the present councillor for the old Boscawen division, former mayor Rob Nolan. Councillor Nolan had a real battle on his hands in 2009, winning with a majority of 66 votes over the Conservative candidate, Lorrie Eathorne-Gibbons.
City councillor and former mayor, Ms Eathorne Gibbons is back this year hoping that the two byelection victories that the Conservatives have achieved in the city council's Boscawen ward will be repeated here. In the 2012 byelection, the Conservatives achieved 48% of the vote whilst the Liberal Democrats vote fell to just over 27%. Whilst the turnout was just over 20%, it was a very encouraging result for the Tories and worrying for the Liberal Democrats, not least because of the Labour vote. Ms Eathorne-Gibbons is used to being on the wrong side of close results, she failed to take a seat by 21 votes on the old district council.
For Labour, Pamela Atherton is hoping to repeat, or better, the two byelection results; bizarrely, Labour's Hanna Toms received 246 votes at both elections and the Lib Dems failed to squeeze the vote at the second one, being only 27 votes ahead of Labour. Labour received over 24.6% of the vote and if Ms Atherton repeats this, bearing in mind that Labour only managed 288 votes in the whole of the city, plus Threemilestone, in 2009, it will be a very good result indeed. Ms Atherton is the mother of former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton, standing in Falmouth Smithick.
Returning for the Green Party is Howard Newlove, who managed 10.6% of the vote last time and will be hoping not to be squeezed in the battle for the top spot.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, Lance Dyer, who held the party's vote in the first of the Boscawen byelections, will be hoping that he can do the same, or better, this time. Given that Labour leap-frogged him then, I suspect he will be happy not to suffer a squeeze from one of the other parties.
Having said everything, Cllr Nolan is a very well-known and well-liked figure in the city and will be looking to hold on to a personal vote. Personal votes matter in Truro, so it could make a difference. All in all though, Labour seems unlikely to see its vote be completely squeezed back to 2009's 4.5% and I think the good councillor will be worried about them closing the gap. He must hope the protest vote was exercised at the byelections. If Labour were to gain a seat in Truro, this would probably be the one, but I wouldn't be predicting that at all. For the Conservatives, the shenanigans in County Hall can't help and the unpopularity of the Westminster government will not be welcome, for either of the two coalition parties.

Prediction: Erm....

Truro Tregolls

This division is equivalent to the one held won by the Liberal Democrat, Doris Ansari, in 2009. This time, former Cornwall County Council leader, Councillor Ansari is not standing and Ros Cox is taking her place for the party. Defeated in 2009 by Cllr Bert Biscoe in the old Moresk division, former district councillor, and present city councillor, Cox will hope to be in County Hall come 3rd May. Conservative candidate Judy Cresswell will be pushing to close the gap but will be hampered by the entrance of a UKIP candidate into the race.
UKIP's Paul Minihan is unlikely to be more of a spoiler here and it may well put the seat beyond Ms Cresswell, even if she hopes that Labour or the Greens can take enough votes off the Lib Dems to bring the seat into play for the Tories.
In third place last time was Mebyon Kernow with its candidate, Loic Rich, taking 21.5% of the vote. Since then, actor, musician, and screenwriter Mr Rich has been on a bit of a political odyssey, resigning from the party to join the Conservatives and now standing as an Independent. I suspect he won't be able to hold onto the votes he received last time as an MK candidate, not least as the Greens and Labour will be battling for the centre-left vote.
For the Greens, who got 7.9% of the vote last time, Godfrey Allen is standing and will hope to take advantage of the unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats  nationally to reap votes, but he cannot hope to win here.
Labour have Margaret George, secretary of Truro and Falmouth Amnesty International, hoping to get the party back to the high teens of percentage vote share at least.
To hold this division, Ms Cox needs to keep her party's vote in the mid-thirties of percentage (39% last time), and she will be okay.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.

Truro Trehaverne
In 2009, the Trehaverne division was won by Fiona Ferguson with 33% of the vote and by only 6 votes over Independent, Sarah Trevail. Only 34 votes behind her, on 30.2% of the vote, was Liberal Democrat candidate Tom Stubbs. Councillor Fergusuon was the Conservative Goup leader on the council who dramatically resigned from the Cabinet over the issue of "lie detector tests" on those people claiming single person's council tax discount.
This is going to be a really interesting election as Councillor Ferguson is defending herself against a different Independent this time, former 2010 Labour parliamentary candidate for Truro and Falmouth (she also stood for the party in Truro and St Austell in 2005), Dr Charlotte MacKenzie. It is sad for both Dr MacKenzie and the Labour Party that they have fallen out, but she has continued to sit on the Truro City Council and to campaign on local issues. It will be interesting to see how she does.
For the Liberal Democrats, city councillor Peter Congdon will hope to pick up the few votes needed from last time to snatch the seat and will hope that he doesn't lose votes to Labour, the Greens or Dr MacKenzie.
The Green candidate is Steve Angove  but I think he will struggle to do too well here in a very close race.
For Labour, Richard Lees should hope to see a good vote increase although he will be somewhat uneasy about the presence of former leading Labour light, Dr MacKenzie, being amongst his opposition.
Messing things up a bit more is UKIP's Michael Inglefield, a local B&B owner. He will make life harder for all candidates, but most especially Cllr Ferguson.
The big questions are: who gets the Independent vote from last time and will the Liberal Democrat vote grow of fall?

Prediction: No idea

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