An overview of the General Election results in South West England.

This is the fuller version of the edited section in The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2017, that I prepared for the marvellous Dr. Robert Waller.

The election in the South West of England was thought to be one where, outside of a few pockets of (often declining) Labour support , the battle for seats would be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats; as with so much commentary concerning this election, this proved to be fairly off the mark. From the old Hampshire redoubts of Bournemouth, up through Wiltshire and down to the mineral mining village of Constantine in Cornwall, the beginnings of a Labour revival not seen since the 1960s is the story of June 2017. Labour are now second in 32 constituencies, with Independent candidate, Claire Wright, second in Devon East. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats have had MPs in 18 seats here.

There are 55 constituencies, covering the traditional counties of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset (plus Bournemouth and Christchurch), Wiltshire, and Gloucestershire.

Before the election, there were 51 Conservative MPs and 4 Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats having lost all 11 of their seats at the 2015 General Election. If there was to be a revival of fortunes for Mr. Farron’s party, this was thought to be the place where it would be strongest.

In the event, they managed to regain only one seat, that of Bath from the Conservatives. Labour held its 4 seats and gained 3 (Stroud, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bristol North-West), while the Conservatives continue to hold the vast majority of seats with 47 MPs, losing the 4 afore-mentioned seats.

So far so simple, but not really, as Labour did not only hold their seats, 2 of which (Bristol West and East) were at some point during the election campaign seen as at risk, but they piled on the votes to significantly increase their majorities. Their vote share in Bristol West went up a stunning 30.3% for the gloriously named Thangam Debbonaire, to 65.9% and an unbelievable 47,213 votes (37,336 majority) on a 22.15% swing from Green to Labour, where the Green Party candidate’s challenge saw them fall to third place. The former Lib Dem MP, Stephen Williams, saw his vote fall from 18.9% to 7.3% into 4^th place. The Conservatives’ Annabell Tell grabbed the runner-up slot on the basis of her vote share falling the least. This constituency had seen a 12% increase in voter registration since December of 2016, the 6^th highest in the UK.

In Bristol East, the straight Labour-Tory fight saw the Tory vote rise a pleasing 3.7%, only for it to be overshadowed by  Labour’s Kerry McCarthy’s vote share going up by a massive 21.5%, an 8.9% swing mainly due to the 15.5% that UKIP had taken at the 2015 Election (with no candidate this time) going to Ms McCarthy. A 60.5% share of the vote and a majority of 13,394 makes this old seat of Tony Benn and Stafford Cripps feel safe for the foreseeable future.

Bristol South  was very similar for Labour (60.1%, up 21.7%, 7.7% swing) over the Tories (30.7%, up 6.3%), with the Green, Lib Dem and UKIP vote falls going mostly to Labour’s returned Karin Smith.

Bristol North West is Labour’s gain in the city, and a serious disappointment for the Tories who will have hoped that the fact that most of their local councillors are from this ward and that former MP (2010-17) Charlotte Leslie had built up a healthy share of the vote in 2015, made this a shoo-in against an apparently unpopular Labour Party. Not so, with a swing of 9.15% to Labour’s Darren Jones, the losing candidate in 2015, giving him a 4,761 majority. Ms Leslie has a higher share of the vote than when she was first elected in 2010 and must have assumed that the UKIP vote from 2015 was there for the taking but, as we shall see again and again, this was not to the advantage of the Conservatives, and her share of the vote fell by 2.1%

The outer Bristol seats of Filton and Bradley Stoke (Labour up 15.1%), Kingswood (Labour up 9.9%) and Somerset North (Labour up 12.3%), Somerset North East (Labour up 9.9%) showed decent swings to Labour, but with the Conservative vote also rising, they were never in any danger. Labour will be most disappointed in Kingswood not to have done better in a seat held for them by Roger Berry from 1992 to 2010, but the loss of the Bristol wards of Hillfields and Frome Vale at the pre-2010 boundary changes has made it a very different seat and the Tory vote rose by 6.6%. It is notable that Filton and Bradley Stoke (Con maj: 4,182 8.3%) is now a more winnable seat for Labour than Kingswood (Con maj: 7,500 15.4%). Thornbury and Yate, which, along with Filton and Bradley Stoke, replaced Northavon constituency in 2010, was formerly a Liberal Democrat seat held by Steve Webb, whose stint as a Pensions Minister in the Coalition government of 2010-15, destroyed his political career. The Liberal Democrat’s Claire Young will have hoped to close the gap but saw her party’s share of the vote fall further back to 31.4%, losing 6.5%. Defending Conservative, 30-year old Luke Hall, will be delighted and, I suspect, greatly surprised to find himself with 55.3% of the vote and a 12,071 majority. A swing of 10.35% of the vote to him from 2015 will, no doubt, be a little due to the double incumbency effect: the effect of the former MP not fighting the seat again plus the defending MP having first term recognition. Labour’s Brian Mead will be pleased to take 12.1% of the vote (+4.3%), whilst the Green’s Ian Hamilton took only 1.2% (-1.5%). UKIP did not stand this time and their 10.6% of the vote may have gone largely to the Conservatives, but it is difficult to tell, given the tactical unwind of the past voting patterns. I assume a lot of voting churn. In Somerset North East, media darling and middle-aged fogey, Jacob Rees-Mogg was comfortably returned as Conservative MP with 53.6% of the vote (+3.9%), but doesn’t appear to have been the main recipient of the UKIP’s not standing, and he suffered a 3% swing to Labour. Still a longshot aim for Labour, he has a 10,235 majority.

The only bright light for the Liberal Democrats in the whole of the South West was their regain of Bath from the Conservatives’ Ben Howlett, only 2 years after losing the seat. It was a remarkable victory for former Rochdale Conservative councillor (later Rochdale Liberal Democrat leader), German-born Wera Hobhouse, with a swing of 9.8% from the Conservatives and 47.3% of the vote, up a remarkable 17.6% on 2015. She was only selected at the beginning of May after the former candidate, Jay Risbridger, stood down due to family and work commitments. This is a city that was unhappy with the vote to leave the EU and saw a 9% increase in voter registration, the tenth highest in the UK. If Brexit had an effect, this is one of the seats where it was most pronounced against the government. Mr Howlett, a staunch remainer, paid the price for Brexit but won’t have been helped by unfounded allegations of sexual assault that had been made against him and subsequently dropped; his vote fell to 35.8% (-2%). Labour will be pleased not to have been squeezed, seeing a small increase in their share of the vote (14.7% + 1.5%). The Greens saw their vote drop from 11.9% to 2.3%, going over en masse to the Liberal Democrats in a tactical switch. UKIP did not stand, who knows where their 6.2% went, although the turnout dropped here by 1.2%, so maybe many stayed at home.

In Gloucestershire, Labour will be delighted and surprised with their regain of Stroud which, after a 7 year hiatus (otherwise known as Conservative MP, Neil Carmichael) sees the return of David Drew, who had previously announced his retirement from politics having failed to regain the seat in 2015. A seat that had seemed to be steadily drifting away from Labour saw a 9.3% rise in share of the vote and 29,994 votes received, up 7,047 since 2015; this is the single largest number of votes that Mr Drew has ever received, even in 1997 when first elected. Mr Carmichael must have thought that a slight vote rise (45.9% +0.2%) would have seen him through, but he lost by 687 votes. This is an exceptional year with the Lib Dems (3.2%), Greens (2.2%) and UKIP (1.6%) as deposit losing also-rans, their fall in vote share mostly appearing to favour Mr Drew. This seat is still trending Tory, which makes this result exceptionally good for Labour.

In Cheltenham, the Liberal Democrats put a lot of effort and achieved one of their rare large vote increases, up 8.2% on 2015 giving former MP Martin Horwood 42.2% of the vote, but it was not enough to catch the defending Conservative, Alex Chalk, from holding the seat in the Conservative interest, with 46.7% of the vote (+0.5%), a majority of 2,569, and a deep sense of relief. Labour’s Keith white will be happy not to have been squeezed and to have seen his party’s vote rise by 2.2% to 9.5%, while the Green candidate, Adam Van Coevorden, saw his party lose its deposit (1.6%  -3.4%). UKIP did not field a candidate this time and it would be interesting to see a breakdown of where their 7.1% vote went.

Tewkesbury saw Laurence Robertson safely home (as Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee, so interesting times ahead) with 60% (+5.5%) of the vote and a stonking 35,448 votes, with the only other point of interest being Labour’s continuing consolidation in second place, up 7% to 21.8%, reaffirming their dislodgement of the Liberal Democrats as the main, if distant, challengers here. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats took 35.5% of the vote here in 2010, slipping down to 13.5% this time after their vote collapsed in 2015. In The Cotswolds, 25-year veteran Tory MP, Geoffrey Clinton-Brown saw a 4.1% increase in his vote and he received a massive 36,201 votes. The addition of Minchampton ward in 2010 made this more strongly Conservative, but this is nevertheless an impressive result. The Liberal Democrats continue to fall back here with Andrew Gant slipping into third place behind Labour’s Mark Huband, who saw the party improve on their disastrous 4^th place in 2015 to take 17.9% (+8.7%). The UKIP fall in the vote (-8.9%) probably split evenly between the Tories and Labour with the fall in the Liberal Democrat and Green votes largely going to Labour.

In the constituencies of Gloucester and Forest of Dean, Labour’s hopes of a return to winning ways fell short:  a vote share rise in the City (+8.6%),  was not enough to chase down the sitting Conservative, Richard Graham, who saw a rise of 5% in his own vote, whilst in the Forest, the massive rise in Labour’s vote share (+11.3%) still only put them at 35.9%, a long way behind former Government Chief Whip Mark Harper, on 54.3%, a big jump of 7.4%. Both seats saw a big fall in the UKIP vote, switching mostly to Labour, although significantly to the Tories as well. These are the sort of seats in which Labour should be closer if they are to win power again.

In Wiltshire, the Conservatives’ James Gray  held on comfortably in North Wiltshire where they achieved a 0.5% swing to them from the second-placed Liberal Democrats, now 22,398 behind, having had high hopes in this seat back in 1997, 2001 and 2005 (indeed, Hugh Pym, Health Editor of BBC News came within 3,787 votes in 2001). Mr Gray had a 60.3% share of the vote (+3.1%), with the Lib Dems on 17.7% (+2.1%) and Labour breathing down their necks with 17.5% (up 7.7% and their highest share of the vote in this constituency, renamed from the old Chippenham seat in 1983, since 1970). This seat was radically reorganised in 2010 and should have been worse for Labour, so some achievement. UKIP’s vote collapsed (11.5% to 1.6%) and Labour appears to have been the main beneficiary, whilst the Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. In Chippenham (the newly created constituency in 2010, not the old one, which was renamed in 1983 as North Wiltshire), which includes the market towns of Bradford-on-Avon and Melkaham, a turnout of 75.5% saw Conservative Michelle Donelan achieve a 5.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to achieve a majority of 16,630. She was somewhat flattered by a split opposition which, at this election, came only from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, with UKIP and the Greens not putting up candidates this time. The Liberal Democrat’s Helen Belcher must have hoped that the disastrous swing that unseated the former Liberal Democrat incumbent, Duncan Hames, in 2015, would have begun to unwind, but she saw her party’s vote fall by a further 3.8% to 25.6%, whilst Labour’s Andy Newman saw his previous vote grow from 4,561 to 11,236 (19.7% +11.4%), in only 2 years. Labour appears to have gained most from the absence of a UKIP candidate at this election. Ms Donelan has come a long way from the 15 year-old schoolgirl who gave a speech at the 1998 Conservative conference – it didn’t do William Hague too much harm (well, that is subjective…). Neighbouring South West Wiltshire saw another seat where the Tories took 60% of the vote (+7.3%), with former minister Surgeon Commander Andrew Murrison RNR being returned with a majority of 18,326, although he suffered a swing against him to Labour’s Laura Pictor of 2.9%, who saw her party’s share of the vote almost double to 26.5% (+13.1%), a share of the vote not seen in this area since the old Westbury seat in October of 1974, with Labour not having achieved second place since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, this was an unmitigated disaster, with the party so long the main challengers in this and previous seats, seeing their appalling 10.6% of the vote in 2015 fall further to 9.8% this time. UKIP, who placed second in 2015, did not field a candidate this time and the majority of their vote appears to have swung behind Labour. The Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. Salisbury saw Minister John Glen hold his seat with a reduced majority of 17,333, after a swing of 3.85% to Labour’s Tom Corbin, but he will not lose too much sleep after gaining 58.1% of the vote (+2.5%), whilst Mr Corbin will be thanking his near namesake for helping his vote rise to 25.5% (+10.2%), Labour’s best result here since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, total disaster: having been the main challenger, if always the bridesmaid, for four decades, they slipped to 4^th in 2015 when their vote collapsed from 36.9% to 10.1%. The collapse of the UKIP vote to 2.2% (-9.9%) seems to have favoured Labour the most, but the Liberal Democrats made a small advance of 1.2%. Mr Corbin has a consolation prize of having been elected to the City Council, along with his wife Caroline, on 4^th May. In neighbouring Devizes, Minister of State Claire Perry achieved 62.7% of the vote (+5%), and a 21,136 vote majority over Labour’s Imtiyaz Shaikh, who will be pleased to have put Labour in second place with an 8% rise to 21%. In third place, Chris Coleman for the Liberal Democrats achieved a disappointing 9.3% (+1.2%): in a seat where Labour and the Liberal Democrats often tussled for the claim to be main challenger, with the Lib Dems the usual victor, this is very worrying for the party. UKIP saw their vote collapse, managing only 3.4% (-12%), with the Conservatives probably equally sharing their redistributed vote with Labour, whilst Labour probably picked up the 2.6% drop in the Green vote. The Green and Wessex Regionalist candidates lost their deposits.

The Seats of Swindon North and Swindon South are seats Labour need to be gaining if they are to be in government and, again in this part of the South West, they failed to advance enough. They came close in the South, with a swing of 3.45% putting them within 2,464 votes of regaining the seat they lost to Solicitor General Robert Buckland in 2010. He will be delighted to be back with 48.4% of the vote (+2.2%) whilst Labour’s Sarah Church will be able to console herself with an increase of 8.1%, gaining the lion’s share of the UKIP vote collapse of 9.5% and most of the Green drop of 2.1% (both candidates lost their deposits). Stan Pajak for the Lib Dems managed only 4.1% (+0.4%). In the North, defending Conservative, Justin Tomlinson, will be pleased to have held the seat with an 8,335 majority, down from 11,786 in 2015, and 53.6% of the vote (+3.3%). Labour’s Mark Dempsey managed a 3.65% swing from the Tories, but that was mostly due to the collapse in the UKIP vote (2.8% -12.5%) which saw his vote share this time rising by 10.6% to 38.4%, gaining 6,587 more votes than when he stood in 2015. Liberal Democrat flag-bearer, Liz Webster, managed a small increase in the vote (+0.3%) but, along with UKIP’s Steve Halden and the Green’s Andy Bentley, she lost her deposit. We see again that in urban seats the UKIP vote did not go to the governing party, as many expected, but mostly to Labour.

It is hard to believe that Weston-Super-Mare was represented by the Liberal Democrat’s Brian Cotter from 1997 – 2005, and that they came only 2,691 votes from retaking the seat in 2010, because after the shattering collapse in their share of the vote in 2015, dropping from 39.2% to 10.4% and fourth place, they continued to decline this time, seeing their vote fall back to 9.2% for their candidate, Mike Bell. In 2015, Labour’s Tim Taylor snatched a narrow second place over UKIP (18.3% to 17.8%); this year, he nearly doubled the Labour share, gaining 32.7% (+14.4%) and seeing the number of Labour votes rise from 9,594 to 18,438. Their highest ever number of votes in this or it predecessor constituencies, and the highest percentage of the vote achieved since a straight-fight with the Tories’ Sir Ian Orr-Ewing in 1959. For returned MP, former minister John Penrose, he will be pleased to see his vote rise 53.1% (+5.2%), although his majority fell from 15,609 to 11,544, as opposition support coalesced around Mr Taylor. UKIP saw their vote fall to 3.4% (-14.4%), with the Green Party’s Suneil Basu taking 1.6% (-3.4%).  Yet again, Labour are the main beneficiaries of the UKIP collapse.

In neighbouring Wells, former Liberal Democrat MP, Tessa Munt, was widely believed to be in with a fair chance of regaining the seat she held from 2010-15, having taken it from long-term Conservative MP and former minister, David Heathcoat-Amory. In the event, and despite increasing the party’s share of the vote to 37.6% (+4.9%), she managed only a 0.45% swing from the Conservatives’  Major James Heappey, who held the seat with a majority of 7,582, only 3 votes less than 2015. He managed to increase his share of the vote to 50.1% (+4%), so will be feeling fairly satisfied. Labour will be happy to have seen their vote rise to 11.7% (+5.1%) with the Christian Peoples’ Alliance candidate, Lorna Corke, managing only 0.5%. UKIP, who came third in 2015 with 9.9%, and the Green Party, who had 4.1% last time, did not stand this time (the latter to help Ms Munt).

Somerton and Frome used to be part of the sea of Liberal Democrat yellow that made up this part of Somerset, with David Heath representing the seat from 1997 until he stood down in 2015, to be replaced in the yellow corner by former MP for Newbury, David Rendel (who sadly died from cancer a year later). 2015 was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats here, as in much of this region, and they saw their vote fall from 47.5% to 19.4% (-28.1%), with the Conservative candidate, David Warburton, gaining the seat with an enormous 18.3% swing.  By all accounts, a thoroughly decent bloke and former composer, Mr Warburton was untroubled this time, achieving a further swing to him of 1.2%, achieving a massive 22,906 majority, with 57% of the vote (+4%). Mark Blackburn, for the Liberal Democrats, managed to slightly increase the party’s share to 21% (+1.6%), but will be feeling the heat from the Labour Party, whose candidate, Sean Dromgoole, managed to more than double the vote to 17.3% (+10%). Theo Simon, for the Green Party, took 3.2% (-5.8%), whilst Independent, Richard Hadwin, took 1.6%. UKIP, having placed third in 2015 with 10.7% of the vote, did not stand this time, and much of their vote appears to have gone to Labour.

Yeovil, former seat of Liberal Democrat Leader, Paddy Ashdown, is another seat where the his party fell back, rather than challenged, with sitting Tory MP, Marcus Fysh, re-elected with a big rise in his party’s share of the vote  to 54.5% (+12%), whilst Jo Roundell Greene (Lib Dem), saw her party’s position slip back to 29.7% (-3.4%). Labour’s Ian Martin took 12.5% (+5.4%) while the Greens’ Robert Wood took 1.8% (-2.1%), with Independent candidate, Katy Pritchard, taking 1.5%. When coalition Government Minister David Laws lost this seat for the Lib Dems in 2015, it was a big shock, but they must have hoped for a bounce this time, so the party’s continuing unravelling is a concern for them in this most heartland of seats, which they had held since 1983. With UKIP not standing this time, their 13.4% seems to have mostly favoured Mr Fysh.

Completing the stretch of former Liberal Democrat-held seats in Somerset, Taunton Deane, with its predecessor seat, Taunton, has swung from Conservative to Liberal Democrat for 20 years, with Jackie Ballard winning for the LDs in 1997 (2,443 majority), losing it to Adrian Flook of the Conservatives in 2001 (235 majority), Jeremy Browne regaining the seat for the LDs in 2005 (573 majority), then holding it fairly comfortably in 2005 after boundary changes (3,993 majority), and then the 2015 nightmare for the yellow camp, with a 16.8% swing to the Conservatives candidate, Rebecca Pow, and Rachel Gilmour (replacing Jeremy Browne) seeing the party’s vote fall to 21.3% (-27.7%). This time, there was something of a regrowth for the Liberal Democrats to 27.7% (+6.3%), but only a marginal 0.75% swing from the Conservatives. UKIP’s Alan Dimmick saw his party’s vote slump to 2.3% (-9.7%), with the Green’s Clive Martin taking 1.8% (+2.7%). Whilst the latter’s vote may have gone to help the Lib Dem representative, Gideon Amos, the UKIP vote seems to have moved around a bit, with Labour seeing a significant rise to 15.4% (+6.1%).

Bridgwater and West Somerset is represented by Ian Liddell-Grainger, who replaced Tom King in the old Bridgwater constituency (boundary changes in 2010) at the 2001 General Election; now Baron King of Bridgwater, the former MP served in the Cabinet in Departments of State, most notably in Defence. Mr Liddell-Grainger is the great-great-great-grandson of Queen Victoria. He held this seat with a share of 55.1% (+9.2%), whilst Labour local councillor Wes Hinckes achieved 28.6% (+11%). The town of Bridgwater itself has a long radical tradition with James Scott, 1^st Duke of Monmouth, proclaimed King on the Cornhill in Bridgwater in 1685; as history attests, it didn’t go well for him or nine locals. In 1785, it was the first town in Britain to petition the government to ban slavery, and, in 1896, trade unionists in the brick and tile industry were cleared by troops from the town after a number of strikes – the Riot Act was read and barricades forcibly cleared. From 1938 – 45, the constituency was represented by an Independent Progressive (and sometime Common Wealth) MP, Vernon Bartlett. So, a Labour town, with a Conservative MP due to West Somerset and outer Sedgemoor Council wards. The Liberal Democrats slipped back to 10.9% (-1.6%), whilst  Simon Smedley for UKIP,  who were second in 2015, fell to fourth place with 3.6% (-15.6%), with the vote splitting fairly evenly between Mr Liddell-Grainger and Mr Hinckes, whilst some appears to have stayed at home, this seat saw a drop of 2.3% in turnout. Kay Powell, for the Green Party, took 1.8% (-3%). A swing of 0.9% to Labour, a majority of 15,446.

Except for a shock by-election gain by the Liberal Democrat Diana Maddock in 1993, which went back to the Tories in 1997, Christchurch constituency has been safely Conservative since its creation in 1983, the Tory vote share was 67.1% then, and is 69.6% now (+11.5% since 2015). The major change is that Labour have replaced the Liberal Democrats as the main challenger, with their candidate, Patrick Canavan, taking 19.9% of vote (+10.3%), with the Liberal Democrats back a distant third on 7.9% (+1.4%). Chris Rigby for the Green Party achieved 2.6% (-1.7%).  Christopher Chope, who gained the seat in 1997, and previously spent 9 years as MP for Southampton Itchen, will be delighted with his 25,171 majority. Surprisingly, UKIP did not defend their second place and 21.5% share of the vote from 2015, and the vote appears to have split fairly evenly between Mr Chope and Mr Canavan.

Among the “Slap your face with your hand” results of the general election, were those in the two Bournemouth divisions, where Labour managed to achieve their highest ever vote shares of 35.6% (East) and 36.2% (West). In 2015, Labour lost its 3 seats on the borough council, and the Conservatives took 52 out of 54, with only a Green and Independent candidate holding off the blue tide.  In Bournemouth East, lecturer Dr Mel Sample saw an 18.9% vote increase (17,284 votes, up from 7,448 in 2015), to finish 7,937 votes behind Foreign Office Minister, Tobias Ellwood, who took the Conservative share of the vote up to 51.9% (+2.7%). The Liberal Democrats’ Jon Nicholas came a long way back in third place with 6.5% (-1.9%), having been main challengers since 1983, they regularly got around a third of the vote here. UKIP’s David Hughes was unable to defend his 16.5% from 2015, falling to 2.9% (-13.6%), with his vote solidly going to Labour.  Greens’ Alasdair Keddie took 2.5% (-4.7%), with an Independent on 0.6%. A similar picture in Bournemouth West, where veteran local Labour figure, David Stokes, saw his vote rise by 18.5% (16,101, from 7,386 in 2015), finishing 7,711 votes behind Conor Burns, Conservative MP since 2010. Labour have usually been third in this seat since 1983 (although Mr Stokes took second place in 2001) with a fairly strong vote as it includes the Kinson wards which often elect Labour councillors, though in 2015 it was behind UKIP. The Liberal Democrats Phil Dunn saw his party’s vote fall back again to 6.6% (-1.3). UKIP put up no candidate this time, and the 18.5% they received in 2015 matches the rise in the Labour vote; however, given the drop in the Green vote for their candidate, Simon Bull, more likely going to Labour, one can imagine the 5.3% rise for Mr Burns (who took 53.5%), was largely from UKIP. The Pirate Party’s Jason Halsey didn’t get much from the seaside with 0.9%.

Next door Poole has the distinction of the highest unemployment in the County of Dorset, with the centre and north of the town being in the Index of Multiple Deprivation, whilst the ward of Canford Cliffs has Sandbanks on the coastline with multi-million pound properties. Oil extraction, insurance, care and retail industries are based in the town, and it is a tourist rich area. So, no surprise that Conservative MP, Robert Syms, was returned for the sixth time with 57.9% of the vote (+16.6%). Whilst Labour don’t have any councillors in Poole, they have often managed to poll quite strongly at General Elections, with local man, Peter Watt (briefly Labour Party General Secretary), taking second place in 2005. The surprise is that they came second this time with 29.4%, a huge rise of 16.6% on 2015, with 14,679 votes up from 6,107, their highest share of the vote since 1970, and highest number since 1983. After the disastrous collapse in vote share in 2015 (a drop of 19.8%), the formerly strong Liberal Democrats fell further from 2015 to 8.9% (-2.9%). UKIP did not defend their second place from 2015, and their 16.8% seems to have split more for Labour, with the drop in Green support to 2.6% (-2%) likely to favour them as well. A Demos Direct Initiative candidate, Marty Caine (remember the late great comedienne?) taking 1.1%. A swing to Labour of 4.4%.

Dorset Mid and Poole North is a seat that had only the three man parties standing. Not much to see, except to say it is another former Liberal Democrat seat that has slipped further from their grasp: held by Annette Brooke from 2001-15 (rarely comfortably), Conservative Michael Tomlinson gained it in 2015 with 11.2% swing. Any hope that Vikki Slade (who defended the seat in 2015) had of regaining the seat seems forlorn, as her vote slipped back slightly (-0.7%), whilst Mr Tomlinson saw his vote rise to 59.2% (+8.4%). Bringing up the rear in the red colours, Labour’s Steve Brew will be happy to more than double his vote share to 13.3% (+7.4%). No Green Party or UKIP candidates this time, with the latter’s 12.2% seemingly splitting fairly evenly, whilst the former’s 2.8% probably went towards the Lib Dems and Labour.  Swing to Conservatives of 4.5%, majority of 15,339.

In neighbouring Dorset North, the main point of interest is that Labour candidate came second, for the first time in the history of the party fighting this seat. Conservative Simon Hoare successfully defended his seat with a massive 64.9% (+8.3%), Labour’s Pat Osborne took their highest ever share of the vote with 18.6% (+9.7%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Thomas Panton only managing to raise their historically low share of the vote in 2015 to 13.6% (+1.9%), this in a seat the Liberal Democrats were only 4.2% behind the Conservatives in 2005. The Green Party’s John Tutton took 2.9% (-2.8), while UKIP did not defend the seat where they came second in 2015, their 17.1% of the vote then apparently redistributing fairly evenly between the top two. Swing of 0.7% from Conservative to Labour, majority of 25,777.

On the Jurassic Coast, Dorset South was a Labour seat between 2001 and 2010, with Jim Knight (now Lord Knight of Weymouth) going on to hold several government posts. The Labour vote is concentrated in the borough of Weymouth and Portland, but has been balanced by wards from Purbeck district and Owermoigne ward from West Dorset. The seat was made more Conservative by the addition of the gloriously named Creech Barrow ward from Purbeck District and, with Labour slipping back against the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats in recent local elections, Richard Drax, the Conservative MP since 2010, was never likely to feel under threat. He took a very comfortable 56.1% of the vote (+7.2%), whilst Labour’s Tashi Warr took 33.6% (+9.4%). For the Liberal Democrats, Howard Legg took 5.9% (-0.1%) and Jon Orrell, for the Greens, took 4.4% (-0.3%). UKIP didn’t stand, with their 15% last time seemingly splitting fairly evenly between the Tories and Labour. A 1.1% swing from Tories to Labour, with an 11,695 majority.

Along the Jurassic Coast in Dorset West, long term MP and ex-minister, Oliver Letwin, took 55.5% of the vote (+5.5%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Andy Canning runner-up with 23.5% (+1.9%). Labour’s Lee Rhodes saw his party vote share go up to 18.3% (+8.3%), their best since October, 1974, whilst Kelvin Clayton of the Green Party was the only one to lose votes with 2.7% (-3%). UKIP did not defend their 12.5% from 2015, and Labour appears to have picked up a slight plurality of those votes. Hard to believe that this was a very close seat for Mr Letwin, with the Liberal Democrats pushing him hard in election after election. He will be very happy with a majority of 19,091, with a swing to him from the Liberal Democrats of 1.7%.

In North Devon, former Armed Forces Minister Sir Nick Harvey’s hopes of regaining the seat he held for the Liberal Democrats for 23 years, but lost in 2015, were dashed, despite a closer result than in many former Liberal Democrat seat in the South West. He saw his share of the vote go up to 38% (+8.6%), but failed to close the gap of the re-elected Conservative, Peter Heaton –Jones, who managed to take 45.8% (+3.1%). Sir Nick would have hoped to appeal to tactical Labour voters, but they don’t seem tempted anymore and Mark Cann for Labour saw his vote this time go up to 12.7% (+5.6%). In 2015, Steve Crowther, at the time of writing the interim leader of UKIP, took 14.8% of the vote, but this fell precipitously to 2.1% (-12.6%) this time; it seems to have split in various directions. For the Green Party, Ricky Knight took 1.4% (-4.4%). Swing of 2.75% to the Liberal Democrats, majority of 4,332.

Devon West and Torridge is another former Liberal Democrat seat, which elected John Burnett (now Baron Burnett) in 1997, replacing Emma Nicholson who had defected from the Conservatives in 1995 (now Baroness Nicholson, returning to the Conservative fold in 2016). They held the seat until 2001, losing it to Geoffrey Cox QC, who retained the seat this time for the Conservatives with 56.5% of the vote (+5.7%), their highest share since the seat was created in 1983. For the Liberal Democrats, David Chalmers was not able to retake the runner-up spot lost to UKIP in 2015 (when the Lib Dem vote fell from 40.3% to 13.2%), only increasing to 17.7% (+4.5%). In second place, and to the surprise over just about everyone, was Labour’s Vince Barry, who saw the Labour vote rise to 12,926 (21.7% +11.1%) from 6,015. The Green candidate, Chris Jordan, saw his party’s share of the vote fall to 2.7% (-4.2%) with an Independent taking 1.3%. UKIP, as with most seats in this area, did not stand, and their 18.3% from 2015 appears to have substantially gone to the Labour Party. 2.7% swing to Labour, 20,686 majority.

Tiverton and Honiton has been comfortably Conservative since a relatively close shave for former MP, Angela Browning, in 1997, when she held off a Liberal Democrat challenge by 1,653 votes. Since 2010, Neil Parish has been the Conservative MP, and his main challenger is now the Labour Party whose candidate, Caroline Kolek, took 27.1% of the vote (+14.4%. As Mr Parish had 61.4% of the vote (+7.4%), he won’t be too worried. The formerly strong Liberal Democrats continued to fall back from their collapse in 2015, falling to only 8% of the vote (-2.4%), with the Green’s Gill Westcott taking 3.5% (-2.8%). UKIP, second in 2015, did not field a candidate, and their 16.5% seems to have gone mainly to Labour. Swing to Labour of 3.5%, 19,801 majority.

Devon East, to the east of Exeter and with a shoreline of the Jurassic Coast, including the towns of Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Cranbrook and Ottery St. Mary, created in 1987 and reorganised in 2010, had one of the most fascinating contests of the 2017 General Elections, with former minister Sir Hugo Swire, the local Conservative MP since 2001, facing a real challenge from Independent local councillor, Claire Wright, who received a lot of publicity and backing. Councillor Wright took 24% of the vote from nowhere in 2015, and was seen as the one person who might dislodge the incumbent knight. She made a good fist of it, increasing her vote to 21,270 (up by 8,130) and taking 35.2% of the vote (+11.2%). Sir Hugo managed to increase his share of the vote to 48.5% (+2.1%), whilst Labour’s Jan Ross increased the party’s vote to 11.4% (+1.1%). The Liberal Democrats, formerly the main challengers, were supplanted last time by Cllr Wright, and they declined to a stunning 2.4% of the vote (-4.4%, -28.8% since 2010). UKIP fell to 2% (-10.5%) and two other Independent candidates managed 0.4% of the vote between them. The UKIP vote seems to have solidly swung behind the anti-establishment figure of Claire Wright. There was a 4.55% swing to Cllr Craig, with Sir Hugo’s majority falling to 8,036.

Devon Central was created as a new constituency in 2010, when the number of Devon seats increased from 11 to 12. Estimated to be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal, it has been held by the Conservative’s Mel Stride since 2010. In 2015, the Liberal Democrats fell to fourth place with 12.2% of the vote (-22.2), this time they were third with only 11.7% (-0.5%). The Green Party’s Andy Williamson, who had a decent 4,866 votes (8.9%) in 2015, saw it slip to 1,531 (2.6%) this time; UKIP fell from second to fifth place with 2.3% (-10.9%), with Labour’s Lisa Robillard Webb seeing a doubling of the party’s vote to 27% (+14.1%). National Health Action’s John Dean took 1.5% with the Liberal Party’s Lloyd Knight taking 0.8%. Mr Stride took 54.1% and a 15,680 majority. There was a swing to Labour of 6.5%.

Exeter‘s MP, Ben Bradshaw, has represented this seat in the Labour interest since 1997, but I doubt he thought would ever have such a large majority: the University town produced a swing to him of 7.9% with a vote share of 62% (+15.6%), and procuring an extra 9,274 votes to reach 34,336. The Conservative candidate, James Taghdissian, held his party’s vote share at 32.9% (-0.2%), but the absence of UKIP (-9.4%), and with the Liberal Democrat’s Vanessa Newcombe managing only 2.8% (-1.5%), and Joe Levy for the Greens receiving 1.9% (-4.6%) the former BBC journalist swept up most of the redistributed votes (with some inevitable churn) and the increased turnout (up 1.5%). Two Independents took 0.5% of the vote between them. Hard to believe that this ancient constituency has only once been represented by a Labour MP in the past: Gwyneth Dunwoody in the 1966 parliament. Majority: 16,117 votes.

Newton Abbot, created in 2010 to cover Teignmouth, Dawlish, Newton Abbot and the environs, was created from the former Teignmouth seat held by the Liberal Democrat MP, Richard Younger-Ross, from 2001 to 2010. It was seen as a gain by the Conservatives’ Anne Marie-Morris in 2010 and Richard Younger-Ross’s attempt to regain the seat in 2015 saw his vote drop to 23.9% (-18.1%). This time, the Liberal Democrat’s standard-bearer, Marie Chadwick, fell into third place with 20.5% (-3.4%), with James Osben taking the Labour Party up to second place for the first time, more than doubling the party’s vote share to 22.2% (+12.4%). The Green’s Kathryn Driscoll took 1.8% (-2.8%), with UKIP not defending their 13.9%. Ms Morris saw her vote share raise to 55.5% (+8.2%), with a 17,160 majority.

Torbay, another former Liberal Democrat seat represented by Adrian Saunders from 1997 (gained by only 2 votes from Rupert Allason (otherwise known under the pen name of Nigel West) to 2015, this was a seat that the Liberal Democrats had hopes of retaking, but it was a tough ask with a new candidate and the Conservative MP Kevin Foster defending his short incumbency. Mr Foster returned with a greatly increased share of the vote (53% +12.4%). Deborah Brewer for the Liberal Democrats only took 25.1% of the vote (-8.7%), whilst Labour more than doubled their share to 18.2% (+9.5%). As is the common picture in this election, Anthony McIntyre saw his UKIP vote collapse to 2.4% (-11.2%), with the Green Party’s Sam Moss taking 1.3% (-0.2%). A significant turnout increase of 4.4%, it is hard to say for certain where the redistributed and new votes went, without more detailed analysis. Swing to Conservatives of 10.55%, majority of 14,283 votes.

Held for the Conservatives by the independent-minded former GP, Sarah Woolaston, since 2010, Totnes was almost gained by the Liberal Democrats in 2005, but their vote collapsed in 2015 and they came bottom of the poll with 9.9% (-25.7%), with their votes spreading fairly evenly out to the other four candidates (Con, UKIP, Lab, Green). This time, their candidate, Julian Brazil, has managed to increase his share of the vote to 12.9% (+3%), and moved into third place. For Labour, Gerrie Messer has fairly strongly, if somewhat surprisingly for this seat, moved into second place with 26.8% of the vote (+14.1%). Jacqui Hodgson for the Greens took 4.2% (-6.1%) and UKIP’s Steve Harvey gained 2.5% (-11.7%). With the Conservative vote only rising marginally to 53.7% (+0.7%), and with the turnout increasing by 4.5%, the opposition to the sitting MP swung firmly behind Labour; if this stays the case in the future, the Liberal Democrats will have serious problems. Swing to Labour: 6.7%, Majority: 13,477.

Devon South West has been represented by Gary Streeter since 1997, formerly MP for Plymouth Sutton (1992 -97), when it was created. He has always been fairly safe and his 59.9% (+3.3%) will do him nicely. In the past Labour and the Liberal Democrats have swapped second and third place, but Labour are clearly second now with Philippa Davey taking 29.9% (+13.3%), the Liberal Democrat’s Caroline Voaden fell back to 5.2%(-2.3%). UKIP’s Ian Ross gained 2.9% (-11.6%) and the Green’s Win Scutt received 2.1% (-2.7). UKIP’s vote largely went to Labour as, I assume, did the former Liberal Democrat and Green votes. 4.9% swing to Labour, majority of 15,816.

In Plymouth Moor View, the UKIP vote fell by 17.4% and swung heavily to the Conservative’s defending MP, Johnny Mercer, whose vote increased to 51.9% (+14.3%). In second place, Labour will be disappointed to have failed to retake the seat they only lost in 2015 by 1,026. Sue Dann managed to take the Labour vote up to 40.8% (+5.6%), but it appears that former military man, Mr Mercer, has gained from incumbency and the fact that the former Labour MP, Alison Seabeck, did not stand this time. Graham Reed for the Liberal Democrats managed only 2% (-0.9%), with Josh Pope for the Greens taking 1.2% (-1.2%). Swing to the Conservatives: 4.3%, 5,019 majority.

In Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, it was a different story from the northern neighbour, with Labour’s Luke Pollard taking the seat from Conservative incumbent, Oliver Colvile, who had held the seat since gaining it from former Labour MP, Linda Gilroy, in 2010. When the seat was first announced, the council’s returning officer hadn’t included all wards, to add to a nightmare to do with not registering votes in time for the election. In the end, the correct result showed Mr Pollard taking 53.3% of the vote (+16.6%), Mr Colvile taking 40% (+2.2%), Richard Ellison for UKIP down to 2.7% (-11.4%), the liberal Democrat’s Henrietta Bewley taking 2.4% (-1.8%), the Green Party’s Dan Sheaff taking 2.4% (-5.9%) and an Independent with 0.5%.  The UKIP votes, unlike in the northern neighbour, swung heavily behind Mr Pollard. A swing of 7.2% to Labour and a 6,807 majority.

Cornwall was a fascinating election story, with the Duchy returning 6 Conservative MPs again, but with Labour becoming the main challengers in 4 of the seats (up from 1 in 2015). It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats recently dominated Westminster politics here (all of the constituencies in 2005) as Labour saw massive increases in the Labour share of the vote in Truro and Falmouth (up 22.5% to 37.7%), St. Austell and Newquay (up 18.8% to 29%), Camborne and Redruth (up 19.3% to 44.2%) and Cornwall South East (up 13.3% to 22.6%). The Liberal Democrats only remain contenders in North Cornwall and St. Ives, in the first of which former MP Daniel Rogerson (2005-2015) increased his vote to 36.6% (+5.3%), but still lost to Scott Mann who took 50.7% (+5.8%) and has a majority of 7,200. Labour managed to increase its vote share to a reputable (for this seat), 12.1% (+6.6%). In St. Ives, Andrew George, Liberal Democrat MP for 18 years, came within 312 votes of retaking the seat from Derek Thomas, with a swing of 2.3%. Christopher Drew, Labour candidate, in a rare three header, took 14.2% (+4.9%). Labour’s vote in Penzance has become very strong and it seems to have cost Mr George his chance to retake the seat, which Mr Drew might also regret. The failure of UKIP to field candidates in what was one of its most established power-bases and where they had recently had success in the 2013 Unitary Council Elections (all lost since in resignations and election defeats) was illuminating.. They only fielded one candidate, in Truro and Falmouth, garnering only 1.6% of the vote (-10%). The Green Party seems to have stood back in this election in a form of “Progressive Alliance” solidarity, fielding only three candidates (Truro and Falmouth, Cornwall South East and Camborne and Redruth). Mebyon Kernow, the local Cornish party, decided not to stand after the recent Unitary Council Elections due to lack of resources. It has been a conundrum for a long time as to why an area of such relative deprivation, such as Cornwall, has not been more successful for Labour, well, that may now have changed for future elections, where they will be looking to squeeze further the Liberal Democrats to overcome the 1,577 Conservative majority of George Eustice in Camborne and Redruth (LD: 6.1% -6.3%) and the 3,792 majority of Sarah Newton in Truro and Falmouth (LD 14.9% - 1.9%). In the latter, the local press reported that tactical voting to keep out the Tories should go to the Lib Dem’s Rob Nolan. Maybe this cost Labour a famous victory. One anecdote for Cornwall, where Labour’s membership increased dramatically in the last two years, which has had a galvanising effect in some areas, on the day of the election it was tweeted : “The main roads in Penryn are full of Labour posters”, If you know Penryn, that was a major sign of political times a’changing.

Cornwall Council elections: Restormel

Restormal was a borough council of Cornwall which disappeared with the creation of the Cornwall Council unitary authority on 1st April, 2009. It offices were based in the town of St Austell and  the area it covered was the middle of Cornwall, the 'knee' of the peninsula. It was originally formed on 1st April, 1974, from the St. Austell Rural District, Newquay Urban District and St Austell with Fowey borough.
With the creation of the unitary authority, 4 new civil parishes were created: St Austell Town Council, St Austell Bay civil parish, Carlyon civil parish and Pentewan Valley civil parish.
A major concern during this election is the proposed building of an incinerator in St Dennis in the China Clay Area.

St Austell

The largest town in Cornwall with a population of 30,800 (2010 estimate). 10 miles south of Bodmin and 30 miles west of Devon. St Austell civil parish is entirely urban in character. The China Clay industry, once dominant as the St Austell employer, now employs only 2,000 people, but its annual output is higher than ever before. The St Austell Brewery, which celebrated its 150th anniversary in 2001, supplies cask ale to pubs in Cornwall and the rest of the UK, and its beers are marvellous, I have undertaken studies of the subject.

St Austell Bethel

This division was won by a tiny majority of 18 votes in 2009 by the Liberal Democrat's Graham Walker over the Conservative candidate, Bob Davidson. Both are back but this time Councillor Walker, also a town councillor, is standing as an Independent. He resigned from the party on 21st May, 2012, citing his immense disappointment in national politics. Town councillor Mr Davidson, a former district councillor for Bethel, will be hoping that this will help him to win this time.
For the Liberal Democrats, local constituency party chairman Malcolm Brown will be trying to return the seat to the party fold. A town councillor, Mr Brown won the Bethel by election on the 6th December, 2012. He took 41.5% of the vote over the Tory share of 27.5% and, whilst the majority was only 90, on a low turnout, that was acceptable, and was a gain from the Tories.
Another person with a lot to be happy about from that by election is Brendan Parkinson, the Labour & Co-op candidate in this division, who managed to achieve a Labour vote share of 21%, their best in this area for a long time. Whilst he shouldn't get too excited, that is a vast improvement on the 4.9% achieved in 2009 and, in actual votes cast, they more than doubled from a shocking 64 on a large turnout to 135 on a small one. St Austell is an area where Labour should hope to do well and if constituency party secretary Mr Parkinson can match his vote share then he will be delighted - the lack of a Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate may help him, or the Liberal Democrats. Mr Parkinson stood in the old St Austell North division in 2005 and, with the help of the General Election turnout, managed 18.6% of the vote. He must hope to do at least that. A sports enthusiast, Mr Parkinson was presented with a cheque for £1,000 by Cllr Walker in February of 2012 for St Austell Cricket Club, where he is chairman. I guess that is all the councillor will want to be making a gift of .The Independent didn't do well in that by election, but I doubt this will concern Cllr Walker too much.
UKIP's Ian Proctor, an Oxford Psychology and Philosophy graduate who is principal of Cornwall Language Services, the other candidate from 2009, who will be hoping that UKIP growth across the country will increase his vote enough to get him through a divided field; his 14.8% from last time should increase.
This is quite a tough one to call.Cllr Walker, Mr Davidson and Mr Brown all have strong chances to win here. Mr Davidson will probably be most effected by the UKIP vote and the battle for the Lib Dem vote between Cllr Walker and Mr Brown, as well as Labour's hope of taking votes from the Lib Dems and the play all will be making for those who voted MK-PC last time, makes this look like a fascinating seat. Cllr Walker won with 35.1% of the vote in 2009, I think somebody could win with less than that this time.

Prediction: No idea.

St Austell, Gover

In 2009, Conservative Jenny Stewart just managed to take this seat from the Liberal Democrat's Sandra Heyward by 53 votes and, this time, former Gover district councillor Heyward is hoping to go one step further. This political rivalry has history as Councillor Stewart originally gained her the Gover ward from Ms Heyward in the 2007 district elections with Ms Stewart being squeezed out of election by 48 votes (59 behind Cllr Stewart in what was a two-seat ward). Originally elected in 2003, Ms Stewart topped the poll but even then there were only 39 votes between first and third, so she is used to tight races, normally losing out. Originally an Independent, she has decided to stand as an Independent again but without there being a Liberal Democrat in the race. A town councillor and former mayor, she is a well-known figure and must hope that the unpopularity of the Conservatives will allow her to take the division.
Labour's candidate is Ann Phillips, who will be hoping to reverse the shocking collapse in the Labour vote in this division in recent years. In 2009, Labour could only to get 72 electors (6.2%) to vote for them, and they will be determined to reverse this decline and avoid another squeeze between the other two. It is hard to imagine that Labour wouldn't improve from the depths of unpopularity of 4 years ago, but the history of party weakness in this area goes back further.
The media-savvy Cllr Stewart (also a town councillor) will be happy if Labour can pick up protest votes, not least because it is unlikely that her vote share will remain as high as in 2009; the worry for her is that Ms Heyward will take the strong Lib Dem vote and, as an Independent, pick up any Tories wishing to make a 'non-party' protest. Getting the vote out will be the aim for all three candidates and Labour will be keen to avoid the "Labour can't win here" campaign doing for them.
It is a hard one to call but, even given the signs of Labour recovery and the likelihood of Ms Phillips picking up a healthy vote share for Labour from some of those who have voted Lib Dem for a long time, I think Ms Heyward could just take this seat, but it could well be a squeaker - again.

Prediction: Independent gain - just.

St Austell Poltair

Continuing the amazing story of St Austell 'squeakers', the Conservative Steve Double won this seat in 2009 by 68 votes and with 35.9% vote share, only 90 ahead of the third placed candidate.
Part of the reason for this was that the Liberal Democrat and Independent candidates were both sitting councillors in the old two-seat district ward, with the Liberal Democrat also being a sitting County Councillor. Councillor Double, town councillor and deputy mayor of St Austell, was obviously so surprised to win his seat that he decided to aim higher and has been selected as the prospective parliamentary candidate for the St Austell and Newquay constituency.
He has decided not to stand for re-election to the County Council, which might seem a mistake but, given the possible loss of the seat this time, it is probably canny and means he will be more in the area in the run-up to the 2015 general election than in County Hall in Truro.
Defending the seat for the Conservatives is Adam Harris, volunteer and chairman of St Austell Community Kitchen (STACK), a charity providing hot meals to the homeless. STACK has won awards for their work and it is good to see such work being recognised and rewarded.
Hoping to wrest the seat back for the Liberal Democrats is Cornwall Councillor Jackie Bull, who has left her much safer Bugle division to face a more difficult challenge, albeit one in which she should be the favourite. The last mayor of the old district council, Cllr Bull works 20 hours a week as a case worker for local MP, Stephen Gilbert. She also runs the charity, ECC/Imerys Pensioners' Holiday Group.
Labour and Co-op's Andrea Lanxon returns as the only candidate who stood in 2009, when she saw the Labour vote fall to 8.5% (91 votes), the best in the area. Ms Lanxon stood for the old district ward in 2003, taking a creditable 20.5% of the vote and she will hope to be able to repeat that kind of vote shre this time. Whilst I do not doubt that Labour's vote will improve, it may not be helped by the entrance to the race of Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate, Derek Collins. Bethel town councillor Mr Collins was a long-time member of the Liberal Democrats who resigned in protest at the party's national coalition with the Conservatives. I can find no recent history of MK voting in this area of St Austell and it remains to be seen how he will do, but I would guess that Cllr Bull will be less than delighted to have to face another challenger from the centre-left (and a former Lib Dem) who might attract anti-government protest votes.
It is hard to predict and nobody knows where the large Independent vote will go (if it turns out) this time. I would be surprised if Cllr Bull doesn't gain this seat but, given the challenge to her vote from Labour and MK-PC and the appeal of a popular and socially-concerned Tory candidate defending the seat, it is a really fascinating battle.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain (maybe)

St Austell Bay

This division lies southeast of the town of St Austell and stretches along the coast from Charlestown in the north to Black Head in the south. It includes the communities of Charlestown and is a village and port on the south coast of Cornwall, in the parish of St Austell Bay. It is situated approximately 2 miles south east of St Austell town centre - tall ships, lots of filming), Duporth (now a defunct holiday village), Porthpean and Trenarren (a hamlet northeast of Pentewan). This boundary changes here brought parts of the parish formerly in Megavissey division into this division to preserve a sense of unity in this new (2009) civil parish.
The (unaltered) division had a byelection in November, 2009, following the resignation, due to ill-health, of Councillor Richard Stewart. This resulted in a big turnaround with the gain of the seat by John Oxenham for the Liberal Democrats by only 15 votes from the Conservative candidate, Bob Davidson (now the candidate in St Austell, Bethel). This was achieved with a swing of 13.5% and a great result for the Liberal Democrats. The Labour candidate, the returning Maggi Pitches (I preferred the previous Margaret Mary. I am old-fashioned), was squeezed to 4.6% of the vote in a classic Liberal Democrat victory.
On the face of it then, it is surprising to discover that not only is Councillor Oxenham not standing again for this division, but there is no Lib Dem candidate.
Hoping to take advantage of this and retake the division for the Conservatives is their candidate, local financial adviser Tom French, a St Austell town councillor. He is being challenged by Independent candidate, Ann Langley, who has campaigned about the state of the building site on nearby Carlyon Bay and its effect on tourism in the area. She will be hoping to take advantage of the lack of a Liberal Democrat candidate this time and with Conservative unpopularity nationally, but the actions of the Independents in County Hall, in local coalition with the Tories, may hinder her.
For Labour, as I mentioned above, Maggi Pitches is back and will hope to be able to turn unhappiness with the governments, local and national, to her advantage. The lack of a Lib Dem candidate should, one would think, help Labour here, but Ms Pitches will be determined to establish herself as a strong candidate to prevent another "beat the Tory" squeeze. Labour have polled well here in the past and must hope to do so again.

Prediction: Conservative (re-)gain

Penwithick and Boscoppa

Penwithick or Penwithick Stents is a village 2.5 miles north of St Austell, in the civil parish of Treverbyn in the 'clay country' area of china clay quarrying. There are plans to build a new settlement Baal & West Carclaze south of the village as part of the St Austell and Clay Country Eco-town. This would include 1,800 to 2,500 homes. The plan was given outline approval in July 2009.
Boscoppa is a settlement northeast of St Austell. Originally Boscoppa was a separate village but is now a suburb of St Austell and is west of the recently-built A391 bypass road. The village lies in a former mining area.
Won by Liberal Democrat, Christopher Rowe in 2009 with a 78 majority over the Conservatives, and 110 over Mebyon Kernow's Matthew Luke, this is a highly marginal division. Councillor Rowe is back to defend and his main challenger is probably the returning Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate.
The Conservatives have nominated Jamie Hanlon but, with no Labour candidate this time and the unpopularity of the national coalition parties, I could see Mr Luke coming through the middle to take this.

Prediction: Mebyon-Kernow-Party of Cornwall gain

Fowey and Tywardreath 

This division includes Fowey, a small town, civil parish and cargo port at the mouth of the Fowey in south Cornwall  At the time of the 2001 census, it had a population of 2,273. Still busy with trawlers and yachts, tourism is also an important source of income. Also in this division is Tywardreath is a small hilltop village in southern Cornwall, 3 miles north west of Fowey, it has 7 masonic lodges, it is in the civil parish of Tywardreath and Par.
Some obvious boundary changes here with Fowey now being joined (as in district wards in the past) with Tywardreath. The Liberal Democrat Councillor David Hughes, elected for the old Tywardreath division, is 'defending' this seat but I am not sure exactly how it would have turned out in 2009. As a ward, it either elected councillors unopposed or split the vote almost equally between Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Independents. The former Fowey division elected Conservative Sally Bain with a 36 majority over an Independent candidate. On balance, it looks like a better bet that the Liberal Democrats who would have won this seat last time, but given that people vote for different candidates in different ways in these parts, it can't be certain.
In 2007, Cllr Hughes was elected to the old district 3-member ward, 31 votes behind Cllr Bain, who is not standing here this time. He sits on the Tywardreath and Par parish council.
Born in Tywardreath and schooled in Fowey, local man Adrian Wildish is standing for the Conservatives. Formerly serving in the Royal Navy (from age 16), he now works in Plymouth in Military Communications. Very involved locally, he serves on several committees in the area. His wife chairs Tywardreath and Par parish council.
Standing for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, is Fiona Carlyon. She has recently demonstrated against the "Bedroom Tax" and actively challenges Councillor Hughes from the left of the political spectrum. There is no recent history I can find of MK-PC electoral activity in this area but, in the absence of a Labour candidate and the unpopularity of the national coalition government, Ms Carlyon may well take votes from Cllr Hughes. History points to a close fight here and it may well be the same this time.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold/gain.

Mevagissey

Mevagissey is a village, fishing port and civil parish,  The village is situated approximately five miles south of St Austell. The village nestles in a small valley and faces east to Mevagissey Bay. The inner and outer harbours are busy with a mixture of pleasure vessels and working fishing boats, the remains of a once major industry. However, tourism has supplanted fishing as the dominant industry in recent years.)
Another of the remarkably close run results in the St Austell area was here in the old Mevagissey division, where Conservative Denise Mutton took the seat with a majority of 51 over the Liberal Democrats. Councillor Mutton is not defending this seat so it is an open competition. Always close, Cllr Mutton's majority last time is the highest she has ever achieved when she was the district councillor for the ward of Mevagissey.
Councillor Mutton's replacement for the Conservatives is James Mustoe, who will be hoping he does better than when he lost the St Austell town council by election in Bethel ward (see above). A former civil servant, he works as Office Manager for Sarah Newton, Conservative MP for Falmouth and Truro.
Hoping to take the seat for the Liberal Democrats is Dr Ella Westland, a parish councillor on St Goran parish council. She heads the Community Energy Group of Transition St. Goran working on a wind energy scheme that will be the first community-owned project.
For the Greens, Katherine Moseley, will be hoping to improve on their 10% share in 2009.
Labour had an awful result (as across Cornwall) in 2009, taking only 4% of the vote, so their candidate, Michael Bunney, will hope to return to a decent vote share, well into double figures I would have thought. From Gorran, he is a history teacher and Head of House at the historical (and now Specialist Sports College) King's School, Ottery, St Mary in Devon. He was also runner up for the National Teacher Award south west finals.
The big unknown is the share of the vote that UKIP's Michael Williams will achieve. Described by UKIP as "young and thrusting", Mr Williams was selected for the division in December of 2011, so it'll be interesting to see how hard he has worked since then and what it will achieve. If UKIP do well, it may well tip the balance in Dr Westland's favour, but she will not be too happy to see Labour and the Greens again battling for the centre-left vote, and probably with more success this year.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

Mount Charles

Part of St Austell, this division was another close run thing with only 66 votes between first and third. The Liberal Democrat Shirley Polmounter had a majority of 18 over the Independent, Gary King, in 2009.
Both Councillor Polmounter and Mr King are standing again, but now Councillor Polmounter, who was previously a district councillor for Mount Charles, as both and Independent and then a Liberal Democrat, is standing as an Independent again.
For the Conservatives, town councillor Anne Double is running, the wife of Poltair Cornwall Councillor (and Conservative PPC for the St Austell and Newquay constituency) Steve Double, she gained her town council seat in the Mount Charles ward in a byelection with a comfortable victory over the Independent candidate in second place. Worryingly for the Liberal Democrats, it was the Labour candidate who snatched 3rd place, not even having run a candidate in 2009. The Liberal Democrats came fourth with 13.8% of the vote.
The situation that caused the byelection was not an easy one for the Liberal Democrats and probably explains much of their decline.
Director of local charity Scrapstore, Mr King, who just missed out in 2009, is standing as an Independent again. Whilst describing himself as a moderate, Mr King is clearly on the centre-left left of the political spectrum, stating in his profile: "People before Profit and Practical Policies before Party Politics."
He will be hoping that his opposition to both the national and county hall administrations will pay off this time. He was fairly soundly beaten by Mrs Double in the byelection but a bigger turnout, as well as establishing himself as the main candidate to beat the Tories would help him.
The Liberal Democrats are fielding Eileen Rix who will be hoping that the Liberal Democrat voters will stick with her and that the Independent voters will split between Cllr Polmounter and Mr Rix, to allow her through to win. This will be hindered by Labour's Paul Roberts, who will think his pushing the Lib Dems into fourth place in the town council byelection will allow him to push for a much improved Labour vote this time, especially with the seeming implosion of the local Liberal Democrats. His aim must be to get close to 20% of the vote.
For Cllr Polmounter, who resigned from the Liberal Democrats last month, this will be a tough campaign but she has shown her ability to win as an Independent in the past. Having said that, this is going to be a very tough fight between Mrs Double, Mr King and Cllr Polmounter and, with a reinvigorated Labour party, this seat could be won on a very low share of the vote.

Prediction: Too close to call, but the Lib Dems will lose it and Labour won't win it. Mr King as slight favourite.

Bugle

Bugle itself is a village in central Cornwall. It is in the parish of Treverbyn and is situated about five miles north of St Austell on the A391 road. There are plans to build a new neighbourhood on the site of the Goonbarrow Refinery west of the village as part of the St Austell and Clay Country Eco-town. This would include 450-550 homes. With the boundary changes, Luxulyan parish was brought entirely into this division. The village lies four miles northeast of St Austell and six miles south of Bodmin The population of the parish was 1,371 in the 2001 census. A report published in February of this year showd rates of child deprivation in the (Luxuylan and) Bugle ward are the highest in mid and south east Cornwall with more than a quarter — 27 per cent — of children living in poverty.
The 2009 Bugle Division was won by the Liberal Democrat's candidate, Jackie Bull, now transferred to be candidate in the Poltair division of St Austell. A changed division, it was then a safe win for the Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives in second place with less than half of the Lib Dem vote, just ahead of Mebyon Kernow.
This time, the Liberal Democrat candidate is Simon Rix who campaigns against the Council's decision to implement Council Tax cuts effecting the poorest households, but will face accusations of being part of a party which supports the government which has enforced these types of cuts nationally.
For the Conservatives, Rachel Beadle will be carrying what will probably be a forlorn banner; their candidate in Roche division in 2009, where she finished a distant third, the make up of this area is not good for the Tories which, even in a good year for them in 2009, still had them a long way off the pace.
The challengers to Mr Rix are this time more likely to come from the other candidates. Standing for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall is Jerry Jeffries, a first time candidate who is teacher in the Cornish Language Partnership (Maga). MK have done well in this area in the past, with Matthew Luke having been elected as a district councillor in Treverbyn ward in 2007. Mr Jeffries will be disappointed not to eat into the Lib dem vote and come at least a good second, with over thirty percent of the vote, I think it'll be difficult for him though as he is not the only horse in the field here.
For Labour and Co-op, perennial candidate and town councillor David Doyle is standing again. It is in areas like this that Labour's commitment to social change and improving the lot of the poorest should have the highest resonance, but the Lib Dems have, as in most of Cornwall, side-lined Labour over the years. He will surely improve on Labour's disastrous 5.8% last time when the party was at its lowest, the question is whether he can get the vote back to the 18.5% he achieved in 2005 (when the county and General Elections were on the same day). An active member of the South West Co-operative party, Mr Doyle's political commitment to the area cannot be doubted but it has to be said that Labour must do well here.
Making up the field is Independent candidate, Steve Hopper, who will be trying to revive the independent vote base that previously had some strength in the area.
This should be a shoo-in for Mr Rix and the Liberal Democrats but I get the feeling that he will see a big cut in his vote share and majority and it will not be the Tories benefiting.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

Par and St Blazey Gate

Par is a town and fishing port with a harbour on the south coast of Cornwall, pop: 1,400, 3 1/2 miles east of St Austell. Until 2007, china clay was still dried in, and shipped, from Par. There are plans to re-develop the docks as part of the St Austell and Clay Country Eco-town. This would include a new marina and 500-700 homes. St Blazey Gate is a small settlement is St Blazey civil parish, which grew up around a tollgate (hence the name).
Standing for the Liberal Democrats is St Blaise town councillor, Douglas Scrafton, who chairs the Par Bay Big Local group which was given £1 million over ten years to spend on local community projects. He has high local visibility and will be hoping to be able to harness that in his campaign.
For the Conservatives, Richard Pears, a local parish councillor, is hoping to represent the Division in County Hall.
Independent candidate, Alison Watkins was planning to stand in the St Austell, Bethel town council by election last December, but withdrew. She owns Nature Kitchen Spice Shop and Deli in the town.
She initiated St Austell's first annual Spring Fayre and is working on many other events.

I have little local knowledge of the campaign in this area but, given recent history, it should be a Liberal Democrat seat.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.

Roche

Roche is a civil parish and village in mid-Cornwall. The village gets its name from a granite outcrop east of the village. The whle of the Parish is now included in the Division.

Easily gained by Independent John Wood from the Liberal Democrats in 2009, Councillor Wood returns to defend this division. A former district councillor, Mr Wood has a long history of representing this area. He leads the Independent Group at County Hall and is the Member Champion (whatever that is) for Eco-Towns. Former County Councillor Brian Higman (1999 - 2009) returns to try and regain this seat, but this time as a Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate, having parted company with the Liberal Democrats in 2010. Surprisingly (well, maybe not when you see how politics seems to work in Cornwall), the Liberal Democrats are not putting up a candidate this year. This should make for an interesting campaign, not least as it appears to be the first time that MK-PC has run a candidate here.
The Conservative candidate, Derek Walker, should just be happy to improve on the fairly dismal record his party has here.
With no other candidates, it should be a two-horse race and, given unhappiness with the Conservative/Independent coalition in County Hall, former district councillor and Mayor of Restormel borough (1994-1995) Mr Higman will be hoping to return to Truro. Councillor Wood will hope that the novelty of MK-PC standing might be a turn-off for many and that both his history of service and a squeeze on the Conservatives will allow him to hold on. It seems that the Lib Dems may have stood aside for Mr Higman as part of a 'decapitation' strategy and it might just pay off.

Prediction: Independent hold - but with a much reduced majority and with MK-PC second.

St Blazey

Based on the St Blaise Civil Parish, the town was once dominated by the local mining industries and their associated transport infrastructure. Historically copper and tin were mined in and around the parish, whilst more recently china clay has been the principal commodity mined. "The Par & St Blazey Consols" or "South Prideaux Wood" was a small tin mine just north of the town and Par Consols Mine lies to the south west
The Eden Project lies within this division and tourism is very important. Boundary changes bring in Tywardreath Highway, Kilhallon, Penpillick and Porcupine. A recent report found the level of child poverty in this division to be 25%.
The Liberal Democrat,  Roy Taylor, comfortably held this seat in 2009 with almost double the Conservatives share of the vote. A former district councillor, Councillor Taylor was first elected to the old County Council in 1985 for Bodmin until he, having moved to Par (where he and his wife run a B&B), was elected to the Restormal Council in 1996.
The Conservative candidate is Peter Sinclair whom I think was once the St Austell and Newquay Conservative Constituency Party Chairman. I think that he is unlikely to gain the seat but will be keen to hold on to a decent second place. Challenging him here will be Labour's Stuart Wheeler who will be hoping to to overhaul the Conservatives for a decent second place. In 2009, Labour managed a decent vote with 16.4% gained by Lord Voldemort, Tom Riddle (I know, too obvious). In 2005, Mr Riddle achieved over 25% of the vote and Labour would see this seat as one that they should be able to win, certainly in the long-term. They will need a lot of Liberal Democrat voters to break for Mr Wheeler if that is to be achieved but he certainly has a good chance to take advantage of the national Coalition's more unpopular benefit changes and Cllr Taylor may well feel uncomfortable about that. Mr Wheeler is Treasurer and Campaigns' Organiser for the local constituency Labour Party.
Liam Bellamy is running as an Independent candidate, he returned to St Austell four years ago after 20 years working overseas. Since then he has worked as a teacher and in the meat industry, experiencing the economic downturn first hand.
Liam coaches several rugby teams including boys and girls teams at St Austell RFC as well as being on its Executive Committee. I am not sure how well he will do, although an Independent candidate managed to take managed to take 23% of the vote in 2005. Who will he take his votes from?

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold with reduced vote share, Labour to take second place (maybe; probably not).

St Columb Major 

A civil parish and town, often referred to locally as St Columb, it is situated approximately seven miles southwest of Wadebridge and six miles ) east of Newquay. The designation Major distinguishes it from the smaller settlement and parish of St Columb Minor on the coast. A population of around 4,000 in 2001. St Columb is situated in mid-Cornwall, about 5 miles inland from the north coast. The Pall Corporation (filtration and separation technology) employs 300 people in St Columb.
This was one of those seats won with less than a third of the vote with Independent Pat Harvey seeing off another Independent Paul Wills with an apparently comfortable majority of 129 - this was because of the vote spread. Councillor Harvey, the Chairman of Cornwall Council, was a district councillor for St Columb and joined the Unitary Authority in 2009.
The Conservatives have selected John Bell to challenge her and he will be hoping to close the 10% gap from the last elections although, with their being no other Independent candidate this year, it'll be open to question where those votes go.
The Liberal Democrats, who came fourth in 2009, have nominated local town councillor Alvin Augustus Martin (the middle name distinguishes him from the former West Ham player). The Liberal Democrats haven't really run candidates in major council elections in the area until last time and Mr Martin will hope to appeal to those who voted for the Independent, Mr Wills, last time. The Labour candidate on this occasion is Debbie Hopkins, who must hope to improve on only 3.6% of the vote last time.
I can't see Cllr Harvey losing her seat.

Prediction: Independent hold

St Dennis and Nanpean

St Dennis  is a civil parish and village  The village is situated between Newquay and St Austell.
St Dennis had a population of 2,696 in the 2001 census. A quarter of the male population was, at the time, employed in the extraction of china clay. Nanpean  is a village in the civil parish of St Stephen-in-Brannel, approximately four miles northwest of St Austell in the heart of 'clay country', the china clay quarrying area of mid-Cornwall. The division also includes Treviscoe, Little Treviscoe, Step-a-Side, Hill Head and a few other areas. The only change since 2009 is that Nanpean has been added to the title.
A big issue here concerns the proposed siting of an incinerator which is being vigorously opposed, not least by all the local Cornwall Councillors.
Defending the division is lifelong resident and County Councillor, Fred Greenslade, an Independent who originally sat as a borough councillor for the old Rock ward as a Liberal Democrat. Involved in the China Clay industry for a number of years.
Standing against him is former Liberal Democrat borough councillor, Kim Wonnacott, who represented the old St Stephen ward. This time, dog-groomer Ms Wonnacott has cast aside the Liberal Democrat appellation and is also standing as an Independent. A St Stephen-in-Brannel parish councillor, it is hard to say how likely it is that Ms Wonnacott will challenge Cllr Greenslade, whose near 72% share of the vote in 2009 was very impressive. The Liberal Democrats are not standing a candidate this time and she may gain votes from here but I don't see much hope for her.
The Conservatives have Barbara Hannan as their candidate but given that they only managed 12% of the vote in a good year, I can't see them being much of a threat.

Prediction: Independent Greenslade hold

St Enoder

The village of St Enoder is 5 miles southeast of Newquay.
It would be tempting just to put my prediction in here to save time. Mebyon Kernow-Party in Cornwall leader Councillor Dick Cole will not lose this ward. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have not even bothered to put up candidates this time so the only challenge comes from an Independent candidate, Elizabeth Hawken, who stood in the borough elections of 2003, coming third, and in the 2005 elections for the old County Council, coming fourth with another Independent winning. When Councillor Cole stands, he wins, and has built up his vote strongly over the years since he was  first elected to the borough council, achieving 77.6%. I congratulate Ms Hawken for standing as elections should be contested. It will be an achievement if she can get anywhere near thirty percent of the vote.

Prediction: Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall hold (and how).

St Mawgan and Colan

St Mawgan is a village and civil parish 4 miles northeast of Newquay, Colan is a village and civil parish approximately three miles east of Newquay, it has a population of  1,176 (ish). It is a beautiful area where tourism is very important. The hamlets of Bosoughan, Chapel, Gwills, Kestle Mill, Lane, Mountjoy, Quintrell Downs, Trebarber and Trencreek are in the parish.
Conservative John Fitter comfortably won the seat (then named Colan and Mawgan) in 2009 with 53% of the vote, beating both an Independent and a Liberal Democrat. This time, Councillor Fitter is in a two horse race with Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate, Rob Poole. With his vote share likely to fall with the Conservatives unpopular nationally, Cllr Fitter could face a bit of a fight, although it seems a hard task for Mr Poole, starting from nowhere, to win. As it adjoins the St Enoder division of Cllr Cole (see above), it is possible that a lot of help will being seeping across the boundary for Mr Poole and we shall have to see how successful it will prove to be.

Prediction: Conservative hold (or a shock is in the offing)

St Mewan

St Mewan is a civil parish and village, approximately one mile west of St Austell. The village is a small settlement.  St Mewan parish includes the villages of Sticker, Trelowth, Trewoon, and most of Polgooth. it has a population estimated to be over 3,000.
St Mewan is one of the better-off areas of this part of Cornwall with only 7% of children said to be in poverty by a recent report (to many of us, that is still too high). As we have seen with many divisions in rthe St Austell area, this division was closley fought and won, narrowly, by Liberal Democrat Robin Teverson (Baron Teverson, of Tregony in the County of Cornwall). An active member of the House of Lords and frontbench spokesman for the Lib Dems, he is replaced as candidate this time Janet Lockyer. Only losing by 38 votes last time, the Conservatives will be targeting this seat with their candidate John Kneller, a local parish councillor.
There is an Independent hopeful here by the name of Malcolm Harris, who currently runs a successful local catering company. Part of his campaign is to ask questions about the scale and location of the proposed green-field shopping centre at Coyte Farm. Last time, an Independent candidate took 25% of the vote and this must give Mr Harris hope of pulling off a surprise.
Always a fairly close-run battle between the Lib Dems and Conservatives, which the Lib Dems normally win, it is possible that the success of the Independent campaign of Mr Harris that will decide things.

Prediction: Too close to call, Lib Dems slight favourite.

Tintagel

Tintagel itself is on the Atlantic Coast of Cornwall, with the civil parish spreading out from there. In 2001, the population of the parish was 1,820. The nearby Tintagel Castle is connected with the Arthurian myth and, small as the village is, it is one of the most visited places in Britain.
In 2009, the division was won quite comfortably by the Liberal Democrat, Glenton Brown. His closest challenger was Independent, Anthony Brewer, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. This time Councillor Brown is facing a Conservative candidate, Paul Charlesworth, and a UKIP candidate, Susan Bowen. Except, Susan Bowen has been completely disowned by the party as they have discovered she was, fairly recently, a member of the BNP, which is specifically banned by UKIP. She is not now campaigning although her name is still on the ballot paper. Ms Bowen only joined UKIP at the end of March and was allowed to become a candidate within a week or so - this is a weakness for a party wishing to capitalise on its popularity but not having the membership to do so.
This should encourage Mr Charlesworth but he lives quite a distance from the area and this might count against him.
All in all, Cllr Brown is probably safely home but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people vote UKIP on the basis of a protest, no matter the non-campaigning Ms Bowen's views (or, in some cases, because of them).

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

St Stephen-in-Brannel

St Stephen-in-Brannel civil parish and village in central Cornwall, it is four miles west of St Austell on the southern edge of Cornwall's china clay district. Uranium was also mined in this area.
Long-standing district and Cornwall Councillor Des Curnow is standing again and if facing only one challenger in the shape of Keith Hickman of UKIP, the chairman of the St Austell and Newquay constituency party. Whilst I know Cllr Curnow is popular, I am very surprised that none of the parties have chosen to stand candidates here. Whilst Labour did disastrously (3.4%) in 2009, it has had a strong vote in this area in the past and I wonder why the Conservatives would give UKIP a clear run. The answer may well lie in the kind of councillor Mr Curnow is, as he has shown his independence of the ruling coalition (of which he is a member) on several issues and, given that he was one of those who nominated Cllr Cole as the Mebyon Kernow candidate for the last general election, his views probably lie more to the left than the right. he is one of the 'China Clay' area Councillors campaigning against the proposed incinerator in St Dennis.
I am sure Mr Hickman will campaign hard, and has been candidate since November of 2011, but I cannot see Cllr Curnow losing.

Prediction: Independent hold.

Lostwithiel

A beautiful area, Lostwithiel includes the civil parish and it's village at the head of the River Fowey estuary. The 2001 census found it had a population of 2,739. It is the home of Restormel Castle.
In 2009, this seat was snatched by the Conservative (Peter) Gavin Shakerley who won the seat, with only 30.7% of the vote due to there being 5 other candidates. The majority of 121 tells a lie of comfort in terms of victory which means that Councillor Shakerley has decided enough is enough and is not defending this seat.
Standing in his place for the Conservatives is the wonderfully named Benedicte Poula Gwyneth Bay.
An Independent candidate, Graham Jarrett, is hoping to repeat the usual victory for Independents in this seat. It is possible that presence of two Independents in 2009 cost them the seat and the combined vote share was 37.7% (whilst I accept that they wouldn't have shared all votes, many would have transferred).
The Liberal Democrats have never done well enough to win here and I cannot see that changing, although Mrs Marian Oldor Candy (I love the names around here) will do her best.
The dark horse is Nigel Andrew Challis, running for UKIP. He may well appeal to the independently-minded and will not help Ms Bay's hopes, slim as they are, of holding the seat. Could he come through the middle and win? I very much doubt it and see this seat returning to its Independent status.

Prediction: Independent gain.

Newquay

Newquay, is civil parish, seaside resort and fishing port on the North Atlantic coast of Cornwall approximately 20 miles west of Bodmin and 12 miles north of Truro. The town is bounded to the west by the River Gannel and its associated salt marsh, and to the east by the Porth Valley. Newquay has been expanding inland (south) since it was founded. In 2001, the census recorded a permanent population of 19,562. Big tourism industry.

Newquay Central

This was a remarkable result last time as the Liberal Democrat's Geoff Brown managed to to win whilst gaining only 28.8% of the vote but still managing to well-beat the second placed Conservative, Andy Hannan, by 54 votes. Three Independent candidates managed to accrue between them 43.8% of the vote and this is probably what saved Councillor Brown, who was a district councillor in this area before the Unitary authority was set up. At one time the Liberal Democrats were quite confident here and Cllr Brown will hope to show that again but he is now facing a single candidate, Steven Slade, who is standing as an Independent.
Mr Slade is making wide use of social media to get his message across and is, in effect, an Green candidate as he recently joined the party. This is not to suggest he won't be independent when elected. He has just joined the town council after he was elected without contest. He has a BSc Hons in Ecology and has run his own businesses since 1991, in wildlife garden design, renovations and the supply of pub quizzes(!).
Councillor Brown should have a much better campaign than Mr Slade but he will need to watch out for the temptation to vote against a political party.
Part of me believes that a good campaign by the Independent will easily win this seat, but the other part questions how much of a campaign team and strategy he has. So, with a certain amount of reluctance to make a choice, I give it to Councillor Brown.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

Newquay Pentire

After a few minor boundary changes, Newquay Pentire is another two horse race, this time between the sitting Councillor, Joanna Kenny, and the Conservative candidate, Lyndon Spencer Harrison. At the last elections, Cllr Kenny, a former district councillor in the old Gannel ward, beat off strong challenges from the Conservatives and Independent district councillor, Denis Dent, who was also the sitting County Councillor. A ward where Independents have always done well, it'll be interesting to see where the vote goes as, if it breaks for the Conservative, Cllr Kenny will be in trouble as she only managed to take 36.3% of the vote last time. With no Labour (who did shockingly last time with 2.8% of the vote) or English Democrat (7.6%)candidates, it will be the campaign that decides whose vote is appealed to the most -  will the EDP vote go to the Tories, or not come out to vote?
Chairman of Newquay Chamber of Commerce, Newquay Association of Licensed Premises, Mr Harrison has a high profile locally and had a massive fallout with the Liberal Democrats which led to him resigning and forcing a by election. Mr Harrison lost to the Liberal Democrat with 405 votes to 591. Mr Harrison chairs Streetsafe, a project in which a portable building offers first aid facilities and a safe refuge for night-time revellers and local businesses.
In a wider race, Mr Harrison might well win, but I cannot see that he can do enough to defeat Councillor Kenny.

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

Newquay Treloggan

Another division won on a small plurality of 33.6% of the vote, Liberal Democrat Councillor George Edwards is not defending the seat this year, standing instead in Tretherras division. In his place is town councillor Dave Sleeman, who won a bitter byelection campaign against Conservative Lance Harrison (see above in Pentire). With neither the independent Norman Thompson (who picked up a very healthy 27.1% of the vote in 2009) nor the BNP (10.5%), the question is where their votes will go? In the case of the BNP voters, evidence suggests it won't go anywhere at all in this race and will stay at home.
The Conservative candidate is Kevin Towill, who stood at the last election, losing by 47 votes. He will surely hope to pick up votes from the Independents and this may be a close battle. Mr Towill is a town councillor and this year's Mayor of Newquay (at 33 years old, the youngest in the town's history).

Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

Newquay Tretherras

This is a battle with two defenders in that Councillor George Edward (Lib Dem, Trellogan) is challenging Councillor Patrick Lambshead (Con, Tretherra). This reflects some of the boundary changes in the area. On the basis of the results last time, the actual councillor defending is Cllr Lambshead. It was not a good year for the Liberal Democrats and Cllr Edwards will be hoping to take advantage of some recovery, assisted by the appearance in the race of a UKIP candidate, Doris Latham.
A town council by election took place in the general area of this ward in August of 2011, which was won by the Conservative by 56 votes over the Lib Dem in a straight fight. It wasn't a particularly high turnout and perhaps tells us nothing beyond that history shows close races in this ward. Last time, in the old division, former mayor Cllr Lambshead was assisted by the presence of three Independent candidates who polled 41% of the vote; whilst Cllr Lambshead got more than that combined vote, it may have been unhappiness with the lack of a single independent that helped him. The Liberal Democrats did very badly last time (14.8%), but Cllr Edwards will doubtless do better. A Trustee of a charity to preserve the historic Trenance Cottages in Newquay, Cllr Edwards has a high profile. I think that UKIP may well pick up some of the traditional independent votes and also Conservative votes. A former RAF gymnast, Cllr Lambshead may need to show some of that skill to get over the winning line this time.

Prediction: Conservative hold - just!

Newquay Treviglas

Another victory by a small vote total, Independent candidate Harry Heywood took the winner's rosette with only 31.2% of the vote, a majority of 28 over the Conservatives and 55 votes over the Liberal Democrats. Councillor Heywood is not defending the seat this year. A borough councillor for many years, Councillor Heywood seems to have decided to call it a day. This division encompasses most of the old Rialton borough ward.
Fighting to take this seat is town councillor, and last year's mayor, Andy Hannan for the Conservatives; the probable favourite to begin with as much of Councillor Heywood's vote used to go to Conservative candidates in the old three-member ward.
Returning from the last election is the Liberal Democrat candidate, deputy mayor Sandy Carter, who came a close third last time. Mr Carter has an unfortunate habit of just missing out on election and I feel that he is going to be unlucky this time.
It might be thought the entrance of a UKIP candidate would help Mr Carter and hinder Mr Hannan; polls show this to be true but whether that is enough to offset the votes Mr Hannan will likely pick up from the exit of Cllr Heywood is another matter. The UKIP candidate is Mark Hicks, about whom I have struggled to discover anything.
Labour have their only candidate in the Newquay seats in Treviglas, Joan Bowden. I am pretty sure this is the same Lillian Joan Bowden who stood for Labour in Newquay Central. The people of Cornwall seem to mirror the Irish tradition (with which I am much more familiar) of going by their middle names. She managed just 41 votes and 5.7% of the vote in Central, but Labour didn't even have a candidate here last time. The main fund raiser for the St Austell and Newquay Labour Party, Ms Bowden shows a dedication to the cause. Labour will probably do well enough to feel some satisfaction this year but not likely to come close to victory.
With the Greens not standing this year, Mr Carter will also be hoping to pick up these votes but won't be too pleased with a Labour candidate in the race.
All things taken into account, I am just going to give it to Mr Hannan.

Prediction: Conservative gain -just.