An overview of the General Election results in South West England.

This is the fuller version of the edited section in The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2017, that I prepared for the marvellous Dr. Robert Waller.

The election in the South West of England was thought to be one where, outside of a few pockets of (often declining) Labour support , the battle for seats would be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats; as with so much commentary concerning this election, this proved to be fairly off the mark. From the old Hampshire redoubts of Bournemouth, up through Wiltshire and down to the mineral mining village of Constantine in Cornwall, the beginnings of a Labour revival not seen since the 1960s is the story of June 2017. Labour are now second in 32 constituencies, with Independent candidate, Claire Wright, second in Devon East. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats have had MPs in 18 seats here.

There are 55 constituencies, covering the traditional counties of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset (plus Bournemouth and Christchurch), Wiltshire, and Gloucestershire.

Before the election, there were 51 Conservative MPs and 4 Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats having lost all 11 of their seats at the 2015 General Election. If there was to be a revival of fortunes for Mr. Farron’s party, this was thought to be the place where it would be strongest.

In the event, they managed to regain only one seat, that of Bath from the Conservatives. Labour held its 4 seats and gained 3 (Stroud, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bristol North-West), while the Conservatives continue to hold the vast majority of seats with 47 MPs, losing the 4 afore-mentioned seats.

So far so simple, but not really, as Labour did not only hold their seats, 2 of which (Bristol West and East) were at some point during the election campaign seen as at risk, but they piled on the votes to significantly increase their majorities. Their vote share in Bristol West went up a stunning 30.3% for the gloriously named Thangam Debbonaire, to 65.9% and an unbelievable 47,213 votes (37,336 majority) on a 22.15% swing from Green to Labour, where the Green Party candidate’s challenge saw them fall to third place. The former Lib Dem MP, Stephen Williams, saw his vote fall from 18.9% to 7.3% into 4^th place. The Conservatives’ Annabell Tell grabbed the runner-up slot on the basis of her vote share falling the least. This constituency had seen a 12% increase in voter registration since December of 2016, the 6^th highest in the UK.

In Bristol East, the straight Labour-Tory fight saw the Tory vote rise a pleasing 3.7%, only for it to be overshadowed by  Labour’s Kerry McCarthy’s vote share going up by a massive 21.5%, an 8.9% swing mainly due to the 15.5% that UKIP had taken at the 2015 Election (with no candidate this time) going to Ms McCarthy. A 60.5% share of the vote and a majority of 13,394 makes this old seat of Tony Benn and Stafford Cripps feel safe for the foreseeable future.

Bristol South  was very similar for Labour (60.1%, up 21.7%, 7.7% swing) over the Tories (30.7%, up 6.3%), with the Green, Lib Dem and UKIP vote falls going mostly to Labour’s returned Karin Smith.

Bristol North West is Labour’s gain in the city, and a serious disappointment for the Tories who will have hoped that the fact that most of their local councillors are from this ward and that former MP (2010-17) Charlotte Leslie had built up a healthy share of the vote in 2015, made this a shoo-in against an apparently unpopular Labour Party. Not so, with a swing of 9.15% to Labour’s Darren Jones, the losing candidate in 2015, giving him a 4,761 majority. Ms Leslie has a higher share of the vote than when she was first elected in 2010 and must have assumed that the UKIP vote from 2015 was there for the taking but, as we shall see again and again, this was not to the advantage of the Conservatives, and her share of the vote fell by 2.1%

The outer Bristol seats of Filton and Bradley Stoke (Labour up 15.1%), Kingswood (Labour up 9.9%) and Somerset North (Labour up 12.3%), Somerset North East (Labour up 9.9%) showed decent swings to Labour, but with the Conservative vote also rising, they were never in any danger. Labour will be most disappointed in Kingswood not to have done better in a seat held for them by Roger Berry from 1992 to 2010, but the loss of the Bristol wards of Hillfields and Frome Vale at the pre-2010 boundary changes has made it a very different seat and the Tory vote rose by 6.6%. It is notable that Filton and Bradley Stoke (Con maj: 4,182 8.3%) is now a more winnable seat for Labour than Kingswood (Con maj: 7,500 15.4%). Thornbury and Yate, which, along with Filton and Bradley Stoke, replaced Northavon constituency in 2010, was formerly a Liberal Democrat seat held by Steve Webb, whose stint as a Pensions Minister in the Coalition government of 2010-15, destroyed his political career. The Liberal Democrat’s Claire Young will have hoped to close the gap but saw her party’s share of the vote fall further back to 31.4%, losing 6.5%. Defending Conservative, 30-year old Luke Hall, will be delighted and, I suspect, greatly surprised to find himself with 55.3% of the vote and a 12,071 majority. A swing of 10.35% of the vote to him from 2015 will, no doubt, be a little due to the double incumbency effect: the effect of the former MP not fighting the seat again plus the defending MP having first term recognition. Labour’s Brian Mead will be pleased to take 12.1% of the vote (+4.3%), whilst the Green’s Ian Hamilton took only 1.2% (-1.5%). UKIP did not stand this time and their 10.6% of the vote may have gone largely to the Conservatives, but it is difficult to tell, given the tactical unwind of the past voting patterns. I assume a lot of voting churn. In Somerset North East, media darling and middle-aged fogey, Jacob Rees-Mogg was comfortably returned as Conservative MP with 53.6% of the vote (+3.9%), but doesn’t appear to have been the main recipient of the UKIP’s not standing, and he suffered a 3% swing to Labour. Still a longshot aim for Labour, he has a 10,235 majority.

The only bright light for the Liberal Democrats in the whole of the South West was their regain of Bath from the Conservatives’ Ben Howlett, only 2 years after losing the seat. It was a remarkable victory for former Rochdale Conservative councillor (later Rochdale Liberal Democrat leader), German-born Wera Hobhouse, with a swing of 9.8% from the Conservatives and 47.3% of the vote, up a remarkable 17.6% on 2015. She was only selected at the beginning of May after the former candidate, Jay Risbridger, stood down due to family and work commitments. This is a city that was unhappy with the vote to leave the EU and saw a 9% increase in voter registration, the tenth highest in the UK. If Brexit had an effect, this is one of the seats where it was most pronounced against the government. Mr Howlett, a staunch remainer, paid the price for Brexit but won’t have been helped by unfounded allegations of sexual assault that had been made against him and subsequently dropped; his vote fell to 35.8% (-2%). Labour will be pleased not to have been squeezed, seeing a small increase in their share of the vote (14.7% + 1.5%). The Greens saw their vote drop from 11.9% to 2.3%, going over en masse to the Liberal Democrats in a tactical switch. UKIP did not stand, who knows where their 6.2% went, although the turnout dropped here by 1.2%, so maybe many stayed at home.

In Gloucestershire, Labour will be delighted and surprised with their regain of Stroud which, after a 7 year hiatus (otherwise known as Conservative MP, Neil Carmichael) sees the return of David Drew, who had previously announced his retirement from politics having failed to regain the seat in 2015. A seat that had seemed to be steadily drifting away from Labour saw a 9.3% rise in share of the vote and 29,994 votes received, up 7,047 since 2015; this is the single largest number of votes that Mr Drew has ever received, even in 1997 when first elected. Mr Carmichael must have thought that a slight vote rise (45.9% +0.2%) would have seen him through, but he lost by 687 votes. This is an exceptional year with the Lib Dems (3.2%), Greens (2.2%) and UKIP (1.6%) as deposit losing also-rans, their fall in vote share mostly appearing to favour Mr Drew. This seat is still trending Tory, which makes this result exceptionally good for Labour.

In Cheltenham, the Liberal Democrats put a lot of effort and achieved one of their rare large vote increases, up 8.2% on 2015 giving former MP Martin Horwood 42.2% of the vote, but it was not enough to catch the defending Conservative, Alex Chalk, from holding the seat in the Conservative interest, with 46.7% of the vote (+0.5%), a majority of 2,569, and a deep sense of relief. Labour’s Keith white will be happy not to have been squeezed and to have seen his party’s vote rise by 2.2% to 9.5%, while the Green candidate, Adam Van Coevorden, saw his party lose its deposit (1.6%  -3.4%). UKIP did not field a candidate this time and it would be interesting to see a breakdown of where their 7.1% vote went.

Tewkesbury saw Laurence Robertson safely home (as Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee, so interesting times ahead) with 60% (+5.5%) of the vote and a stonking 35,448 votes, with the only other point of interest being Labour’s continuing consolidation in second place, up 7% to 21.8%, reaffirming their dislodgement of the Liberal Democrats as the main, if distant, challengers here. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats took 35.5% of the vote here in 2010, slipping down to 13.5% this time after their vote collapsed in 2015. In The Cotswolds, 25-year veteran Tory MP, Geoffrey Clinton-Brown saw a 4.1% increase in his vote and he received a massive 36,201 votes. The addition of Minchampton ward in 2010 made this more strongly Conservative, but this is nevertheless an impressive result. The Liberal Democrats continue to fall back here with Andrew Gant slipping into third place behind Labour’s Mark Huband, who saw the party improve on their disastrous 4^th place in 2015 to take 17.9% (+8.7%). The UKIP fall in the vote (-8.9%) probably split evenly between the Tories and Labour with the fall in the Liberal Democrat and Green votes largely going to Labour.

In the constituencies of Gloucester and Forest of Dean, Labour’s hopes of a return to winning ways fell short:  a vote share rise in the City (+8.6%),  was not enough to chase down the sitting Conservative, Richard Graham, who saw a rise of 5% in his own vote, whilst in the Forest, the massive rise in Labour’s vote share (+11.3%) still only put them at 35.9%, a long way behind former Government Chief Whip Mark Harper, on 54.3%, a big jump of 7.4%. Both seats saw a big fall in the UKIP vote, switching mostly to Labour, although significantly to the Tories as well. These are the sort of seats in which Labour should be closer if they are to win power again.

In Wiltshire, the Conservatives’ James Gray  held on comfortably in North Wiltshire where they achieved a 0.5% swing to them from the second-placed Liberal Democrats, now 22,398 behind, having had high hopes in this seat back in 1997, 2001 and 2005 (indeed, Hugh Pym, Health Editor of BBC News came within 3,787 votes in 2001). Mr Gray had a 60.3% share of the vote (+3.1%), with the Lib Dems on 17.7% (+2.1%) and Labour breathing down their necks with 17.5% (up 7.7% and their highest share of the vote in this constituency, renamed from the old Chippenham seat in 1983, since 1970). This seat was radically reorganised in 2010 and should have been worse for Labour, so some achievement. UKIP’s vote collapsed (11.5% to 1.6%) and Labour appears to have been the main beneficiary, whilst the Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. In Chippenham (the newly created constituency in 2010, not the old one, which was renamed in 1983 as North Wiltshire), which includes the market towns of Bradford-on-Avon and Melkaham, a turnout of 75.5% saw Conservative Michelle Donelan achieve a 5.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to achieve a majority of 16,630. She was somewhat flattered by a split opposition which, at this election, came only from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, with UKIP and the Greens not putting up candidates this time. The Liberal Democrat’s Helen Belcher must have hoped that the disastrous swing that unseated the former Liberal Democrat incumbent, Duncan Hames, in 2015, would have begun to unwind, but she saw her party’s vote fall by a further 3.8% to 25.6%, whilst Labour’s Andy Newman saw his previous vote grow from 4,561 to 11,236 (19.7% +11.4%), in only 2 years. Labour appears to have gained most from the absence of a UKIP candidate at this election. Ms Donelan has come a long way from the 15 year-old schoolgirl who gave a speech at the 1998 Conservative conference – it didn’t do William Hague too much harm (well, that is subjective…). Neighbouring South West Wiltshire saw another seat where the Tories took 60% of the vote (+7.3%), with former minister Surgeon Commander Andrew Murrison RNR being returned with a majority of 18,326, although he suffered a swing against him to Labour’s Laura Pictor of 2.9%, who saw her party’s share of the vote almost double to 26.5% (+13.1%), a share of the vote not seen in this area since the old Westbury seat in October of 1974, with Labour not having achieved second place since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, this was an unmitigated disaster, with the party so long the main challengers in this and previous seats, seeing their appalling 10.6% of the vote in 2015 fall further to 9.8% this time. UKIP, who placed second in 2015, did not field a candidate this time and the majority of their vote appears to have swung behind Labour. The Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. Salisbury saw Minister John Glen hold his seat with a reduced majority of 17,333, after a swing of 3.85% to Labour’s Tom Corbin, but he will not lose too much sleep after gaining 58.1% of the vote (+2.5%), whilst Mr Corbin will be thanking his near namesake for helping his vote rise to 25.5% (+10.2%), Labour’s best result here since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, total disaster: having been the main challenger, if always the bridesmaid, for four decades, they slipped to 4^th in 2015 when their vote collapsed from 36.9% to 10.1%. The collapse of the UKIP vote to 2.2% (-9.9%) seems to have favoured Labour the most, but the Liberal Democrats made a small advance of 1.2%. Mr Corbin has a consolation prize of having been elected to the City Council, along with his wife Caroline, on 4^th May. In neighbouring Devizes, Minister of State Claire Perry achieved 62.7% of the vote (+5%), and a 21,136 vote majority over Labour’s Imtiyaz Shaikh, who will be pleased to have put Labour in second place with an 8% rise to 21%. In third place, Chris Coleman for the Liberal Democrats achieved a disappointing 9.3% (+1.2%): in a seat where Labour and the Liberal Democrats often tussled for the claim to be main challenger, with the Lib Dems the usual victor, this is very worrying for the party. UKIP saw their vote collapse, managing only 3.4% (-12%), with the Conservatives probably equally sharing their redistributed vote with Labour, whilst Labour probably picked up the 2.6% drop in the Green vote. The Green and Wessex Regionalist candidates lost their deposits.

The Seats of Swindon North and Swindon South are seats Labour need to be gaining if they are to be in government and, again in this part of the South West, they failed to advance enough. They came close in the South, with a swing of 3.45% putting them within 2,464 votes of regaining the seat they lost to Solicitor General Robert Buckland in 2010. He will be delighted to be back with 48.4% of the vote (+2.2%) whilst Labour’s Sarah Church will be able to console herself with an increase of 8.1%, gaining the lion’s share of the UKIP vote collapse of 9.5% and most of the Green drop of 2.1% (both candidates lost their deposits). Stan Pajak for the Lib Dems managed only 4.1% (+0.4%). In the North, defending Conservative, Justin Tomlinson, will be pleased to have held the seat with an 8,335 majority, down from 11,786 in 2015, and 53.6% of the vote (+3.3%). Labour’s Mark Dempsey managed a 3.65% swing from the Tories, but that was mostly due to the collapse in the UKIP vote (2.8% -12.5%) which saw his vote share this time rising by 10.6% to 38.4%, gaining 6,587 more votes than when he stood in 2015. Liberal Democrat flag-bearer, Liz Webster, managed a small increase in the vote (+0.3%) but, along with UKIP’s Steve Halden and the Green’s Andy Bentley, she lost her deposit. We see again that in urban seats the UKIP vote did not go to the governing party, as many expected, but mostly to Labour.

It is hard to believe that Weston-Super-Mare was represented by the Liberal Democrat’s Brian Cotter from 1997 – 2005, and that they came only 2,691 votes from retaking the seat in 2010, because after the shattering collapse in their share of the vote in 2015, dropping from 39.2% to 10.4% and fourth place, they continued to decline this time, seeing their vote fall back to 9.2% for their candidate, Mike Bell. In 2015, Labour’s Tim Taylor snatched a narrow second place over UKIP (18.3% to 17.8%); this year, he nearly doubled the Labour share, gaining 32.7% (+14.4%) and seeing the number of Labour votes rise from 9,594 to 18,438. Their highest ever number of votes in this or it predecessor constituencies, and the highest percentage of the vote achieved since a straight-fight with the Tories’ Sir Ian Orr-Ewing in 1959. For returned MP, former minister John Penrose, he will be pleased to see his vote rise 53.1% (+5.2%), although his majority fell from 15,609 to 11,544, as opposition support coalesced around Mr Taylor. UKIP saw their vote fall to 3.4% (-14.4%), with the Green Party’s Suneil Basu taking 1.6% (-3.4%).  Yet again, Labour are the main beneficiaries of the UKIP collapse.

In neighbouring Wells, former Liberal Democrat MP, Tessa Munt, was widely believed to be in with a fair chance of regaining the seat she held from 2010-15, having taken it from long-term Conservative MP and former minister, David Heathcoat-Amory. In the event, and despite increasing the party’s share of the vote to 37.6% (+4.9%), she managed only a 0.45% swing from the Conservatives’  Major James Heappey, who held the seat with a majority of 7,582, only 3 votes less than 2015. He managed to increase his share of the vote to 50.1% (+4%), so will be feeling fairly satisfied. Labour will be happy to have seen their vote rise to 11.7% (+5.1%) with the Christian Peoples’ Alliance candidate, Lorna Corke, managing only 0.5%. UKIP, who came third in 2015 with 9.9%, and the Green Party, who had 4.1% last time, did not stand this time (the latter to help Ms Munt).

Somerton and Frome used to be part of the sea of Liberal Democrat yellow that made up this part of Somerset, with David Heath representing the seat from 1997 until he stood down in 2015, to be replaced in the yellow corner by former MP for Newbury, David Rendel (who sadly died from cancer a year later). 2015 was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats here, as in much of this region, and they saw their vote fall from 47.5% to 19.4% (-28.1%), with the Conservative candidate, David Warburton, gaining the seat with an enormous 18.3% swing.  By all accounts, a thoroughly decent bloke and former composer, Mr Warburton was untroubled this time, achieving a further swing to him of 1.2%, achieving a massive 22,906 majority, with 57% of the vote (+4%). Mark Blackburn, for the Liberal Democrats, managed to slightly increase the party’s share to 21% (+1.6%), but will be feeling the heat from the Labour Party, whose candidate, Sean Dromgoole, managed to more than double the vote to 17.3% (+10%). Theo Simon, for the Green Party, took 3.2% (-5.8%), whilst Independent, Richard Hadwin, took 1.6%. UKIP, having placed third in 2015 with 10.7% of the vote, did not stand this time, and much of their vote appears to have gone to Labour.

Yeovil, former seat of Liberal Democrat Leader, Paddy Ashdown, is another seat where the his party fell back, rather than challenged, with sitting Tory MP, Marcus Fysh, re-elected with a big rise in his party’s share of the vote  to 54.5% (+12%), whilst Jo Roundell Greene (Lib Dem), saw her party’s position slip back to 29.7% (-3.4%). Labour’s Ian Martin took 12.5% (+5.4%) while the Greens’ Robert Wood took 1.8% (-2.1%), with Independent candidate, Katy Pritchard, taking 1.5%. When coalition Government Minister David Laws lost this seat for the Lib Dems in 2015, it was a big shock, but they must have hoped for a bounce this time, so the party’s continuing unravelling is a concern for them in this most heartland of seats, which they had held since 1983. With UKIP not standing this time, their 13.4% seems to have mostly favoured Mr Fysh.

Completing the stretch of former Liberal Democrat-held seats in Somerset, Taunton Deane, with its predecessor seat, Taunton, has swung from Conservative to Liberal Democrat for 20 years, with Jackie Ballard winning for the LDs in 1997 (2,443 majority), losing it to Adrian Flook of the Conservatives in 2001 (235 majority), Jeremy Browne regaining the seat for the LDs in 2005 (573 majority), then holding it fairly comfortably in 2005 after boundary changes (3,993 majority), and then the 2015 nightmare for the yellow camp, with a 16.8% swing to the Conservatives candidate, Rebecca Pow, and Rachel Gilmour (replacing Jeremy Browne) seeing the party’s vote fall to 21.3% (-27.7%). This time, there was something of a regrowth for the Liberal Democrats to 27.7% (+6.3%), but only a marginal 0.75% swing from the Conservatives. UKIP’s Alan Dimmick saw his party’s vote slump to 2.3% (-9.7%), with the Green’s Clive Martin taking 1.8% (+2.7%). Whilst the latter’s vote may have gone to help the Lib Dem representative, Gideon Amos, the UKIP vote seems to have moved around a bit, with Labour seeing a significant rise to 15.4% (+6.1%).

Bridgwater and West Somerset is represented by Ian Liddell-Grainger, who replaced Tom King in the old Bridgwater constituency (boundary changes in 2010) at the 2001 General Election; now Baron King of Bridgwater, the former MP served in the Cabinet in Departments of State, most notably in Defence. Mr Liddell-Grainger is the great-great-great-grandson of Queen Victoria. He held this seat with a share of 55.1% (+9.2%), whilst Labour local councillor Wes Hinckes achieved 28.6% (+11%). The town of Bridgwater itself has a long radical tradition with James Scott, 1^st Duke of Monmouth, proclaimed King on the Cornhill in Bridgwater in 1685; as history attests, it didn’t go well for him or nine locals. In 1785, it was the first town in Britain to petition the government to ban slavery, and, in 1896, trade unionists in the brick and tile industry were cleared by troops from the town after a number of strikes – the Riot Act was read and barricades forcibly cleared. From 1938 – 45, the constituency was represented by an Independent Progressive (and sometime Common Wealth) MP, Vernon Bartlett. So, a Labour town, with a Conservative MP due to West Somerset and outer Sedgemoor Council wards. The Liberal Democrats slipped back to 10.9% (-1.6%), whilst  Simon Smedley for UKIP,  who were second in 2015, fell to fourth place with 3.6% (-15.6%), with the vote splitting fairly evenly between Mr Liddell-Grainger and Mr Hinckes, whilst some appears to have stayed at home, this seat saw a drop of 2.3% in turnout. Kay Powell, for the Green Party, took 1.8% (-3%). A swing of 0.9% to Labour, a majority of 15,446.

Except for a shock by-election gain by the Liberal Democrat Diana Maddock in 1993, which went back to the Tories in 1997, Christchurch constituency has been safely Conservative since its creation in 1983, the Tory vote share was 67.1% then, and is 69.6% now (+11.5% since 2015). The major change is that Labour have replaced the Liberal Democrats as the main challenger, with their candidate, Patrick Canavan, taking 19.9% of vote (+10.3%), with the Liberal Democrats back a distant third on 7.9% (+1.4%). Chris Rigby for the Green Party achieved 2.6% (-1.7%).  Christopher Chope, who gained the seat in 1997, and previously spent 9 years as MP for Southampton Itchen, will be delighted with his 25,171 majority. Surprisingly, UKIP did not defend their second place and 21.5% share of the vote from 2015, and the vote appears to have split fairly evenly between Mr Chope and Mr Canavan.

Among the “Slap your face with your hand” results of the general election, were those in the two Bournemouth divisions, where Labour managed to achieve their highest ever vote shares of 35.6% (East) and 36.2% (West). In 2015, Labour lost its 3 seats on the borough council, and the Conservatives took 52 out of 54, with only a Green and Independent candidate holding off the blue tide.  In Bournemouth East, lecturer Dr Mel Sample saw an 18.9% vote increase (17,284 votes, up from 7,448 in 2015), to finish 7,937 votes behind Foreign Office Minister, Tobias Ellwood, who took the Conservative share of the vote up to 51.9% (+2.7%). The Liberal Democrats’ Jon Nicholas came a long way back in third place with 6.5% (-1.9%), having been main challengers since 1983, they regularly got around a third of the vote here. UKIP’s David Hughes was unable to defend his 16.5% from 2015, falling to 2.9% (-13.6%), with his vote solidly going to Labour.  Greens’ Alasdair Keddie took 2.5% (-4.7%), with an Independent on 0.6%. A similar picture in Bournemouth West, where veteran local Labour figure, David Stokes, saw his vote rise by 18.5% (16,101, from 7,386 in 2015), finishing 7,711 votes behind Conor Burns, Conservative MP since 2010. Labour have usually been third in this seat since 1983 (although Mr Stokes took second place in 2001) with a fairly strong vote as it includes the Kinson wards which often elect Labour councillors, though in 2015 it was behind UKIP. The Liberal Democrats Phil Dunn saw his party’s vote fall back again to 6.6% (-1.3). UKIP put up no candidate this time, and the 18.5% they received in 2015 matches the rise in the Labour vote; however, given the drop in the Green vote for their candidate, Simon Bull, more likely going to Labour, one can imagine the 5.3% rise for Mr Burns (who took 53.5%), was largely from UKIP. The Pirate Party’s Jason Halsey didn’t get much from the seaside with 0.9%.

Next door Poole has the distinction of the highest unemployment in the County of Dorset, with the centre and north of the town being in the Index of Multiple Deprivation, whilst the ward of Canford Cliffs has Sandbanks on the coastline with multi-million pound properties. Oil extraction, insurance, care and retail industries are based in the town, and it is a tourist rich area. So, no surprise that Conservative MP, Robert Syms, was returned for the sixth time with 57.9% of the vote (+16.6%). Whilst Labour don’t have any councillors in Poole, they have often managed to poll quite strongly at General Elections, with local man, Peter Watt (briefly Labour Party General Secretary), taking second place in 2005. The surprise is that they came second this time with 29.4%, a huge rise of 16.6% on 2015, with 14,679 votes up from 6,107, their highest share of the vote since 1970, and highest number since 1983. After the disastrous collapse in vote share in 2015 (a drop of 19.8%), the formerly strong Liberal Democrats fell further from 2015 to 8.9% (-2.9%). UKIP did not defend their second place from 2015, and their 16.8% seems to have split more for Labour, with the drop in Green support to 2.6% (-2%) likely to favour them as well. A Demos Direct Initiative candidate, Marty Caine (remember the late great comedienne?) taking 1.1%. A swing to Labour of 4.4%.

Dorset Mid and Poole North is a seat that had only the three man parties standing. Not much to see, except to say it is another former Liberal Democrat seat that has slipped further from their grasp: held by Annette Brooke from 2001-15 (rarely comfortably), Conservative Michael Tomlinson gained it in 2015 with 11.2% swing. Any hope that Vikki Slade (who defended the seat in 2015) had of regaining the seat seems forlorn, as her vote slipped back slightly (-0.7%), whilst Mr Tomlinson saw his vote rise to 59.2% (+8.4%). Bringing up the rear in the red colours, Labour’s Steve Brew will be happy to more than double his vote share to 13.3% (+7.4%). No Green Party or UKIP candidates this time, with the latter’s 12.2% seemingly splitting fairly evenly, whilst the former’s 2.8% probably went towards the Lib Dems and Labour.  Swing to Conservatives of 4.5%, majority of 15,339.

In neighbouring Dorset North, the main point of interest is that Labour candidate came second, for the first time in the history of the party fighting this seat. Conservative Simon Hoare successfully defended his seat with a massive 64.9% (+8.3%), Labour’s Pat Osborne took their highest ever share of the vote with 18.6% (+9.7%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Thomas Panton only managing to raise their historically low share of the vote in 2015 to 13.6% (+1.9%), this in a seat the Liberal Democrats were only 4.2% behind the Conservatives in 2005. The Green Party’s John Tutton took 2.9% (-2.8), while UKIP did not defend the seat where they came second in 2015, their 17.1% of the vote then apparently redistributing fairly evenly between the top two. Swing of 0.7% from Conservative to Labour, majority of 25,777.

On the Jurassic Coast, Dorset South was a Labour seat between 2001 and 2010, with Jim Knight (now Lord Knight of Weymouth) going on to hold several government posts. The Labour vote is concentrated in the borough of Weymouth and Portland, but has been balanced by wards from Purbeck district and Owermoigne ward from West Dorset. The seat was made more Conservative by the addition of the gloriously named Creech Barrow ward from Purbeck District and, with Labour slipping back against the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats in recent local elections, Richard Drax, the Conservative MP since 2010, was never likely to feel under threat. He took a very comfortable 56.1% of the vote (+7.2%), whilst Labour’s Tashi Warr took 33.6% (+9.4%). For the Liberal Democrats, Howard Legg took 5.9% (-0.1%) and Jon Orrell, for the Greens, took 4.4% (-0.3%). UKIP didn’t stand, with their 15% last time seemingly splitting fairly evenly between the Tories and Labour. A 1.1% swing from Tories to Labour, with an 11,695 majority.

Along the Jurassic Coast in Dorset West, long term MP and ex-minister, Oliver Letwin, took 55.5% of the vote (+5.5%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Andy Canning runner-up with 23.5% (+1.9%). Labour’s Lee Rhodes saw his party vote share go up to 18.3% (+8.3%), their best since October, 1974, whilst Kelvin Clayton of the Green Party was the only one to lose votes with 2.7% (-3%). UKIP did not defend their 12.5% from 2015, and Labour appears to have picked up a slight plurality of those votes. Hard to believe that this was a very close seat for Mr Letwin, with the Liberal Democrats pushing him hard in election after election. He will be very happy with a majority of 19,091, with a swing to him from the Liberal Democrats of 1.7%.

In North Devon, former Armed Forces Minister Sir Nick Harvey’s hopes of regaining the seat he held for the Liberal Democrats for 23 years, but lost in 2015, were dashed, despite a closer result than in many former Liberal Democrat seat in the South West. He saw his share of the vote go up to 38% (+8.6%), but failed to close the gap of the re-elected Conservative, Peter Heaton –Jones, who managed to take 45.8% (+3.1%). Sir Nick would have hoped to appeal to tactical Labour voters, but they don’t seem tempted anymore and Mark Cann for Labour saw his vote this time go up to 12.7% (+5.6%). In 2015, Steve Crowther, at the time of writing the interim leader of UKIP, took 14.8% of the vote, but this fell precipitously to 2.1% (-12.6%) this time; it seems to have split in various directions. For the Green Party, Ricky Knight took 1.4% (-4.4%). Swing of 2.75% to the Liberal Democrats, majority of 4,332.

Devon West and Torridge is another former Liberal Democrat seat, which elected John Burnett (now Baron Burnett) in 1997, replacing Emma Nicholson who had defected from the Conservatives in 1995 (now Baroness Nicholson, returning to the Conservative fold in 2016). They held the seat until 2001, losing it to Geoffrey Cox QC, who retained the seat this time for the Conservatives with 56.5% of the vote (+5.7%), their highest share since the seat was created in 1983. For the Liberal Democrats, David Chalmers was not able to retake the runner-up spot lost to UKIP in 2015 (when the Lib Dem vote fell from 40.3% to 13.2%), only increasing to 17.7% (+4.5%). In second place, and to the surprise over just about everyone, was Labour’s Vince Barry, who saw the Labour vote rise to 12,926 (21.7% +11.1%) from 6,015. The Green candidate, Chris Jordan, saw his party’s share of the vote fall to 2.7% (-4.2%) with an Independent taking 1.3%. UKIP, as with most seats in this area, did not stand, and their 18.3% from 2015 appears to have substantially gone to the Labour Party. 2.7% swing to Labour, 20,686 majority.

Tiverton and Honiton has been comfortably Conservative since a relatively close shave for former MP, Angela Browning, in 1997, when she held off a Liberal Democrat challenge by 1,653 votes. Since 2010, Neil Parish has been the Conservative MP, and his main challenger is now the Labour Party whose candidate, Caroline Kolek, took 27.1% of the vote (+14.4%. As Mr Parish had 61.4% of the vote (+7.4%), he won’t be too worried. The formerly strong Liberal Democrats continued to fall back from their collapse in 2015, falling to only 8% of the vote (-2.4%), with the Green’s Gill Westcott taking 3.5% (-2.8%). UKIP, second in 2015, did not field a candidate, and their 16.5% seems to have gone mainly to Labour. Swing to Labour of 3.5%, 19,801 majority.

Devon East, to the east of Exeter and with a shoreline of the Jurassic Coast, including the towns of Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Cranbrook and Ottery St. Mary, created in 1987 and reorganised in 2010, had one of the most fascinating contests of the 2017 General Elections, with former minister Sir Hugo Swire, the local Conservative MP since 2001, facing a real challenge from Independent local councillor, Claire Wright, who received a lot of publicity and backing. Councillor Wright took 24% of the vote from nowhere in 2015, and was seen as the one person who might dislodge the incumbent knight. She made a good fist of it, increasing her vote to 21,270 (up by 8,130) and taking 35.2% of the vote (+11.2%). Sir Hugo managed to increase his share of the vote to 48.5% (+2.1%), whilst Labour’s Jan Ross increased the party’s vote to 11.4% (+1.1%). The Liberal Democrats, formerly the main challengers, were supplanted last time by Cllr Wright, and they declined to a stunning 2.4% of the vote (-4.4%, -28.8% since 2010). UKIP fell to 2% (-10.5%) and two other Independent candidates managed 0.4% of the vote between them. The UKIP vote seems to have solidly swung behind the anti-establishment figure of Claire Wright. There was a 4.55% swing to Cllr Craig, with Sir Hugo’s majority falling to 8,036.

Devon Central was created as a new constituency in 2010, when the number of Devon seats increased from 11 to 12. Estimated to be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal, it has been held by the Conservative’s Mel Stride since 2010. In 2015, the Liberal Democrats fell to fourth place with 12.2% of the vote (-22.2), this time they were third with only 11.7% (-0.5%). The Green Party’s Andy Williamson, who had a decent 4,866 votes (8.9%) in 2015, saw it slip to 1,531 (2.6%) this time; UKIP fell from second to fifth place with 2.3% (-10.9%), with Labour’s Lisa Robillard Webb seeing a doubling of the party’s vote to 27% (+14.1%). National Health Action’s John Dean took 1.5% with the Liberal Party’s Lloyd Knight taking 0.8%. Mr Stride took 54.1% and a 15,680 majority. There was a swing to Labour of 6.5%.

Exeter‘s MP, Ben Bradshaw, has represented this seat in the Labour interest since 1997, but I doubt he thought would ever have such a large majority: the University town produced a swing to him of 7.9% with a vote share of 62% (+15.6%), and procuring an extra 9,274 votes to reach 34,336. The Conservative candidate, James Taghdissian, held his party’s vote share at 32.9% (-0.2%), but the absence of UKIP (-9.4%), and with the Liberal Democrat’s Vanessa Newcombe managing only 2.8% (-1.5%), and Joe Levy for the Greens receiving 1.9% (-4.6%) the former BBC journalist swept up most of the redistributed votes (with some inevitable churn) and the increased turnout (up 1.5%). Two Independents took 0.5% of the vote between them. Hard to believe that this ancient constituency has only once been represented by a Labour MP in the past: Gwyneth Dunwoody in the 1966 parliament. Majority: 16,117 votes.

Newton Abbot, created in 2010 to cover Teignmouth, Dawlish, Newton Abbot and the environs, was created from the former Teignmouth seat held by the Liberal Democrat MP, Richard Younger-Ross, from 2001 to 2010. It was seen as a gain by the Conservatives’ Anne Marie-Morris in 2010 and Richard Younger-Ross’s attempt to regain the seat in 2015 saw his vote drop to 23.9% (-18.1%). This time, the Liberal Democrat’s standard-bearer, Marie Chadwick, fell into third place with 20.5% (-3.4%), with James Osben taking the Labour Party up to second place for the first time, more than doubling the party’s vote share to 22.2% (+12.4%). The Green’s Kathryn Driscoll took 1.8% (-2.8%), with UKIP not defending their 13.9%. Ms Morris saw her vote share raise to 55.5% (+8.2%), with a 17,160 majority.

Torbay, another former Liberal Democrat seat represented by Adrian Saunders from 1997 (gained by only 2 votes from Rupert Allason (otherwise known under the pen name of Nigel West) to 2015, this was a seat that the Liberal Democrats had hopes of retaking, but it was a tough ask with a new candidate and the Conservative MP Kevin Foster defending his short incumbency. Mr Foster returned with a greatly increased share of the vote (53% +12.4%). Deborah Brewer for the Liberal Democrats only took 25.1% of the vote (-8.7%), whilst Labour more than doubled their share to 18.2% (+9.5%). As is the common picture in this election, Anthony McIntyre saw his UKIP vote collapse to 2.4% (-11.2%), with the Green Party’s Sam Moss taking 1.3% (-0.2%). A significant turnout increase of 4.4%, it is hard to say for certain where the redistributed and new votes went, without more detailed analysis. Swing to Conservatives of 10.55%, majority of 14,283 votes.

Held for the Conservatives by the independent-minded former GP, Sarah Woolaston, since 2010, Totnes was almost gained by the Liberal Democrats in 2005, but their vote collapsed in 2015 and they came bottom of the poll with 9.9% (-25.7%), with their votes spreading fairly evenly out to the other four candidates (Con, UKIP, Lab, Green). This time, their candidate, Julian Brazil, has managed to increase his share of the vote to 12.9% (+3%), and moved into third place. For Labour, Gerrie Messer has fairly strongly, if somewhat surprisingly for this seat, moved into second place with 26.8% of the vote (+14.1%). Jacqui Hodgson for the Greens took 4.2% (-6.1%) and UKIP’s Steve Harvey gained 2.5% (-11.7%). With the Conservative vote only rising marginally to 53.7% (+0.7%), and with the turnout increasing by 4.5%, the opposition to the sitting MP swung firmly behind Labour; if this stays the case in the future, the Liberal Democrats will have serious problems. Swing to Labour: 6.7%, Majority: 13,477.

Devon South West has been represented by Gary Streeter since 1997, formerly MP for Plymouth Sutton (1992 -97), when it was created. He has always been fairly safe and his 59.9% (+3.3%) will do him nicely. In the past Labour and the Liberal Democrats have swapped second and third place, but Labour are clearly second now with Philippa Davey taking 29.9% (+13.3%), the Liberal Democrat’s Caroline Voaden fell back to 5.2%(-2.3%). UKIP’s Ian Ross gained 2.9% (-11.6%) and the Green’s Win Scutt received 2.1% (-2.7). UKIP’s vote largely went to Labour as, I assume, did the former Liberal Democrat and Green votes. 4.9% swing to Labour, majority of 15,816.

In Plymouth Moor View, the UKIP vote fell by 17.4% and swung heavily to the Conservative’s defending MP, Johnny Mercer, whose vote increased to 51.9% (+14.3%). In second place, Labour will be disappointed to have failed to retake the seat they only lost in 2015 by 1,026. Sue Dann managed to take the Labour vote up to 40.8% (+5.6%), but it appears that former military man, Mr Mercer, has gained from incumbency and the fact that the former Labour MP, Alison Seabeck, did not stand this time. Graham Reed for the Liberal Democrats managed only 2% (-0.9%), with Josh Pope for the Greens taking 1.2% (-1.2%). Swing to the Conservatives: 4.3%, 5,019 majority.

In Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, it was a different story from the northern neighbour, with Labour’s Luke Pollard taking the seat from Conservative incumbent, Oliver Colvile, who had held the seat since gaining it from former Labour MP, Linda Gilroy, in 2010. When the seat was first announced, the council’s returning officer hadn’t included all wards, to add to a nightmare to do with not registering votes in time for the election. In the end, the correct result showed Mr Pollard taking 53.3% of the vote (+16.6%), Mr Colvile taking 40% (+2.2%), Richard Ellison for UKIP down to 2.7% (-11.4%), the liberal Democrat’s Henrietta Bewley taking 2.4% (-1.8%), the Green Party’s Dan Sheaff taking 2.4% (-5.9%) and an Independent with 0.5%.  The UKIP votes, unlike in the northern neighbour, swung heavily behind Mr Pollard. A swing of 7.2% to Labour and a 6,807 majority.

Cornwall was a fascinating election story, with the Duchy returning 6 Conservative MPs again, but with Labour becoming the main challengers in 4 of the seats (up from 1 in 2015). It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats recently dominated Westminster politics here (all of the constituencies in 2005) as Labour saw massive increases in the Labour share of the vote in Truro and Falmouth (up 22.5% to 37.7%), St. Austell and Newquay (up 18.8% to 29%), Camborne and Redruth (up 19.3% to 44.2%) and Cornwall South East (up 13.3% to 22.6%). The Liberal Democrats only remain contenders in North Cornwall and St. Ives, in the first of which former MP Daniel Rogerson (2005-2015) increased his vote to 36.6% (+5.3%), but still lost to Scott Mann who took 50.7% (+5.8%) and has a majority of 7,200. Labour managed to increase its vote share to a reputable (for this seat), 12.1% (+6.6%). In St. Ives, Andrew George, Liberal Democrat MP for 18 years, came within 312 votes of retaking the seat from Derek Thomas, with a swing of 2.3%. Christopher Drew, Labour candidate, in a rare three header, took 14.2% (+4.9%). Labour’s vote in Penzance has become very strong and it seems to have cost Mr George his chance to retake the seat, which Mr Drew might also regret. The failure of UKIP to field candidates in what was one of its most established power-bases and where they had recently had success in the 2013 Unitary Council Elections (all lost since in resignations and election defeats) was illuminating.. They only fielded one candidate, in Truro and Falmouth, garnering only 1.6% of the vote (-10%). The Green Party seems to have stood back in this election in a form of “Progressive Alliance” solidarity, fielding only three candidates (Truro and Falmouth, Cornwall South East and Camborne and Redruth). Mebyon Kernow, the local Cornish party, decided not to stand after the recent Unitary Council Elections due to lack of resources. It has been a conundrum for a long time as to why an area of such relative deprivation, such as Cornwall, has not been more successful for Labour, well, that may now have changed for future elections, where they will be looking to squeeze further the Liberal Democrats to overcome the 1,577 Conservative majority of George Eustice in Camborne and Redruth (LD: 6.1% -6.3%) and the 3,792 majority of Sarah Newton in Truro and Falmouth (LD 14.9% - 1.9%). In the latter, the local press reported that tactical voting to keep out the Tories should go to the Lib Dem’s Rob Nolan. Maybe this cost Labour a famous victory. One anecdote for Cornwall, where Labour’s membership increased dramatically in the last two years, which has had a galvanising effect in some areas, on the day of the election it was tweeted : “The main roads in Penryn are full of Labour posters”, If you know Penryn, that was a major sign of political times a’changing.

Review of the Stockport Council election results

So, the votes have been counted and the people have spoken and it is time to reflect a little on what has happened In Stockport, 2 parties have something to be happy about - Labour gained 4 seats and again topped the poll in terms of votes cast (33.39%) and the Liberal Democrats avoided a meltdown, coming second in terms of votes (31.02%) and, whilst they lost three seats that they had held in 2008 (including the Councillor leader, David Goddard's seat in Offerton), they managed to regain Cheadle and Gatley and hold on in Hazel Grove and Bredbury Green and Romiley.
The big losers were the Conservatives who came third in vote share (25.33%) and lost two of their seats (Cheadle and Gatley and Heatons North).

Present Council Composition: (compared to 2008)

Liberal Democrats            28 (-3)
Labour                             21 (+4)
Conservative                    10 (-1)
Independent Ratepayer      3
People Matter                   1

Control of the Council is now open to debate but I would guess that the Liberal Democrats will retain control with the support of the Independent Ratepayers and the People Matter councillor who supported the Liberal Democrat deputy leader (new leader?) in her slim hold in Manor. Of course, I could be wrong.

Brinnington and Central:

This was an easy gain for Labour but the collapse in the Liberal Democrat share of the vote is truly catastrophic, coming third behind UKIP. The Lib Dem's John Reid took only 8.23% of the vote, down by 38.69% since 2008 and it is very much back to the drawing board for the party here. UKIP's Phil Lewis garnered a decent 11.8% of the vote to take second place whilst the former UKIP candidate in 2010, John Heginbotham, managed only 2.94% in his Independent tilt at the seat. The Conservatives' Stephen Holgate will be disappointed to have come in fourth and their vote share slipped compared with 2008 and last year suggesting that, even among their small base in this ward, they have suffered a post-budget backlash.
Labour's Andy Sorton will doubtless battle to prevent Labour losing its heartland seat in the future having achieved a stunning 35.82% swing from the Liberal Democrats since 2008.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Andy Sorton Lab 1677 70.4% (+32.95)
Phil Lewis UKIP 281 11.8% (+11.8%)
John Reid Lib Dem 196 8.23% (-38.69%)
Stephen Holgate Con 158 6.63% (-2.98%)
John Heginbotham Ind 70 2.94% (+2.94%)
(Green - 6.01%)
Labour Majority: 1396 (58.6%)
Swing - LD to Lab 35.82%

Bredbury and Woodley:

I feel fairly pleased with myself with this result as it pretty much turned out as I predicted - Labour's Roy Driver managed to increase the Labour vote by an impressive 6.1% since last May and Labour's vote is up by 26.08% since 2008, the highest vote in this area that Labour has achieved since the creation of the Borough (I am happy to be corrected here) and higher than even Labour's Bill Prince achieved in 1980 when he was elected as Labour's one and only councillor in Bredbury.

The Liberal Democrat's Christine Corris managed to hold on with a massively decreased majority from 2008 and a swing against the Liberal Democrats and to Labour of 22.92% in that period. Whilst 2008 was a disaster for Labour nationwide, this is still pretty stunning in the context of this ward. The Lib Dem vote fell sharply from last May (-7.7%) and the continued collapse of the Tory vote has probably helped Cllr Corris to hold on with a comfortable-ish majority of 181.

The Conservatives will be pretty dumbstruck by their continuing fall in support in this area where a mix of Lib Dem targeting of the vote and the reaction to the Budget has led them to be out of the race for this ward. Their vote share has more than halved since 2008 and this is the worst showing they have had since the present ward was created.

The BNP's Andy Webster took a fairly impressive share of the vote and, as ever, it isn't too easy to speculate where it would have gone if he hadn't stood; many of his supporters wouldn't have voted at all, a few would be Tories but evidence seems to show that BNP voters are often from a disproportionately Labour supporting background so this intervention may have helped Cllr Corris.

The Liberal Democrats are probably delighted that there are no elections in this ward for a couple of years to give them time to rebuild their voter base but if Mr Driver stands again, I see him winning here.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Christine Corris LD 1333 41.19% (-19.76%)
Roy Driver Lab 1152 35.6% (+26.08%)
Chris Kelly Con 469 14.49% (-15.04%)
Andy Webster BNP 282 8.71% (+8.71%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 181 (5.59%)
Swing - LD to Lab 22.92%

Bredbury Green and Romiley:

I got this one completely wrong and I hold my hands up. I was sure that the Conservatives would gain this seat and that Labour would begin to build up their vote share but, when I produced my predictions, the evidence of the post-Budget Conservative collapse wasn't clear and I did not take into account the impressive campaign machine of Councillor Lees who managed to get the vote out whilst the turnout overall for the ward fell sharply. The Lib Dem's 1594 votes were only 14 more than they achieved last year when they were roundly beaten by the Tories, but the turnout in this ward has fallen by a fifth since last May (913 voters less) and the Conservatives voters seem to be the ones who mainly stayed at home with their number of votes down by 906. This is what is known as the rule of differential turnout and the Liberal Democrats have worked it impressively in this ward. Whilst Cllr Lees share of the vote has fallen by 6.82% since 2008, the large fall by the Tories has meant there has been a swing to the Liberal Democrats of 2.06%.

This has got to be very disappointing for the Conservatives who nearly took this seat from Cllr Lees in 2008, coming within 119 votes last time she defended the seat, so I guess there will be a post-mortem asking why they could not enthuse the base to turn out and vote.

Labour's Kathryn Priestly held the vote share from last year (a slight increase of 0.13%) but I expect she will be very disappointed not to have held onto the voters from last year. Nevertheless, Labour has achieved a 13.66% rise in their vote since 2008.

The BNP's Tony Dean achieved 4.1% of the vote and that will have probably have had a similar effect to what I described in Bredbury and Woodley.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Hazel Lees LD 1594 41.14% (-6.82%)
Sally Bennett Con 1332 34.37% (-10.94%)
Kathryn Priestly Lab 790 20.39% (+13.66%)
Tony Dean BNP 159 4.1% (+4.1%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 262 (6.77%)
Swing - Con to LD 2.06%

Cheadle and Gatley:

I am glad I posted last Wednesday night that I was putting this in the Liberal Democrat gain column instead of my initial belief it was a toss-up but a probable Tory hold. Too much was going wrong for the the Tories to see them hold this and congratulations to the new Liberal Democrat councillor Keith Holloway on his victory.

Compared to last year, there was another depressing drop in the turnout here but Cheadle and Gatley managed one of the best turnouts in the borough with 41%. It seems that the Lib Dems managed to get their vote out better than the Conservatives who, despite only losing a small share of the vote on last year (-1.42%) saw their hopes of retaining this seat for Mick Jones fall from their fingers. I guess there will be a lot of blame laid at the hands of the Government's recent budget shambles but that didn't stop the Lib Dems from getting their vote out. As it happens, the turnout was very similar to that of 2008.

The leaflet targeting of Labour voters by the Lib Dems (including quoting attacks on Labour by their former councillor in Manor) to get the Tories out may have had some success as the Labour vote fell back slightly from 2011 by 0.93% and all this added to the margins to make last year's very marginal ward slightly safer for the Liberal Democrat's and produce a gain for them.

Labour's Colin Owen will be disappointed to have not progressed this year, especially given the Coalition government's troubles, but he still managed to improve Labour's vote share since 2008 from 8.77% to 20.4%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Keith Holloway  LD  2030 42.52% (-2.92%)
Mick Jones       Con  1770 37.08% (-8.71%)
Colin Owen       Lab   974  20.4% (+11.63%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 260
Swing - Con to LD 2.895%

Cheadle Hulme North:

Now, I put this ward in my Toss Up column whilst predicting a Lib Dem hold, the result shows my foolhardiness and I will take the newly re-elected Cllr Pantall's good-natured comment on that post as a well-needed hand slap.

It must be said though that nobody could have foreseen (at least until the few days) the remarkable drop in the Conservative share of the vote, especially given the absence of a UKIP candidate whose voters were unlikely to rush across to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. It would appear that they mostly stayed at home, which must be very worrying for the Conservatives. If they had stood this year, the evidence suggests that UKIP would  have increased its share of the vote.

The voter turnout was depressingly low in Cheadle Hulme North at just 33% but Councillor Pantall managed to get out his vote and, whilst only increasing the number of votes the Lib Dems got in 2011 by 9 votes, he increased the vote share by 10.83%.  The Conservatives share fell by 5.12% whilst Labour's Emily Hewson increased the vote from last May by 1.1%.

So, whilst Councillor Pantall's share of the vote has dropped by over 4% since 2008, he can be pleased with his comfortable majority and the success of his campaign. For Labour, a wonderful increase of over 22% since 2008 with a hefty swing to them from the Lib Dems, but disappointment that they haven't done better and a need to look at how it targets those voters resistant to them.

As for the Conservatives' Chris Green, just thank your lucky stars that UKIP didn't stand or things could have been much worse.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

John Pantall   LD  1762  52.44% (-4.39%)
Emily Hewson Lab 985  29.32% (+22.79%)
Chris green    Con  613  18.24% (-13.02%)
(UKIP - 5.37%)
LD Majority: 777
Swing - LD to Lab 13.59%

Cheadle Hulme South

I predicted a solid Lib Dem victory here but guessed at a reduced majority for Cllr Grice - I was wrong as he managed to hold onto a fairly comfortable majority which, whilst his vote share fell in relation to 2008, the drop in the Conservative vote made more impressive than it could have been. Compared to 2008, the Lib Dem vote fell by 4.47%, the Conservative vote fell by 12.56%,  whilst the Labour vote rose by 11.42% and UKIP vote rose by 6.85%.

Compared to last May however, Labour's Theo Smith saw his vote fall slightly (-1.36%) but this is not a great ward for Labour and it was always going to be a struggle for him. Councillor Grice will be delighted to see his party's vote rise to 46.86% after last years drop but much of this, on a reduced turnout, seems to be based on the Lib Dems managing to get their vote out whilst the Conservatives (28.9%) suffered an anti-Coalition backlash with UKIP rising and many voters staying at home so dropping by 6.76% since 2011.

Other than Cllr Grice, the big winner was UKIP's Cyril Peake who is the only candidate to actually increase his number of voters (up by 108) on 2011 and saw his vote share rise by 3.93% overall. This was bad news for the Conservatives' Julie Smith-Jones and will cause some serious soul-searching in the Tory camp.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Len Grice             LD  1876 46.86% (-4.47%)
Julie Smith-Jones Con  1157 28.9%  (-10.54%)
Theo Smith          Lab   579 14.46% (+11.42%)
Cyril Peake         UKIP 391 9.77% (+6.85%)
(Green -3.27%)
LD Majority: 719
Swing - Con to LD 3.035%

Davenport and Cale Green:

Despite a good campaign by sitting Councillor Ann Smith, this was always going to be a difficult battle for the Liberal Democrats after the seat swung heavily to Labour last year and, with the ward being the place where two LD councillors (Roy Driver and David White) defected to Labour out of frustration with the Coalition government and local cuts, has become a fairly safe Labour seat. On the face of it, the majority that Labour's Wendy Wild has achieved looks fairly low (267, 8.22%), but this is actually a swing to Labour and without a sitting councillor for the Lib Dems in a couple of years, I suspect the Labour majority will be closer to that of last May.

Davenport and Cale Green had a higher turnout than 4 years ago although it dropped pretty dramatically from last year, which seems to have benefited the Liberal Democrats who also managed successfully to squeeze the Conservative vote which fell by 7.26% since last May and by 10.15% since 2008. Without question, a good result for the Lib Dems but only in terms of where they were last May. In terms of 2008, the Labour share of the vote has risen by 17.19% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 7.39%, a swing to Labour of 12.29%. The healthy looking Lib Dem share of 38.01% would probably not have looked as good if the Tory vote hadn't so spectacularly collapsed.

The Green Party's Phil Shaw managed a respectable 6.34% of the vote, although it is down since last May (-2.02%) and the Liberal's Graham Ogden left no mark on this contest with only 37 votes (1.14%).

Whilst it is probably of little comfort to former Cllr Smith, I congratulate her on holding onto a personal vote that made things look slightly better than they could have done for her party.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Wild     Lab   1492   45.92% (+17.19%)
Ann Smith         LD    1235   38.01% (-7.39%)
Jackie Jones     Con    279      8.59% (-10.15%)
Phil Shaw         Green 206      6.34% (+6.34%)
Graham Ogden Lib       37      1.14% (+1.14%)
(BNP - 7.13%)
Lab Majority: 257
Swing - LD to Lab 12.29%

Hazel Grove:

Another seat where I wrongly guessed a Conservative gain, although it was very close and the Conservatives, unlike in other parts of the borough, managed to increase their share of the vote compared to their successful campaign last May. The past few weeks' unmitigated bad news for the national party surely depressed the potential Conservative vote and, as with the rest of the borough, the turnout fell quite steeply. Councillor Hogg managed to get the Lib Dem vote out and is undoubtedly very relieved to see their vote share rise by 5.9% since last May.

The result is actually worse for the Tories than it looks - this year there was no UKIP candidate and, when I first made my prediction of a Tory gain, I believed this would help them. The fact that it hasn't and that UKIP's vote seems to have stayed at home is very worrying for the Conservatives and their losing candidate, Oliver Johnstone. Interestingly, the Conservatives got exactly the same number of votes as in 2008 (1668) but, on a lower poll, have increased their vote share.

Labour's Catherine Sheppard will be disappointed to have not made progress on last year but they can certainly be pleased to have escaped the worst of a squeeze - the vote since last year fell by only 0.61%.

Congratulations to a relieved Councillor Hogg, he held on despite a big drop in his vote share since 2008, most of which has gone to Labour on a huge 12.105% swing.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Kevin Hogg             LD  1736  42.05%   (-12.8%)
Oliver Johnstone      Con 1668  40.41%  (+1.39%)
Catherine Sheppard Lab   724  17.54%  (+11.41%)
LD Majority: 68
Swing - LD to Con 7.905%

Heatons North:

I predicted this one correctly with the share of the vote for the Conservatives and Labour fairly similar to last year but with a slight rise for both parties and Labour enjoying an additional swing from the Tories of 0.625%.

It must be difficult for the Conservatives to know what has happened in this seat which used to be a fairly safe (at one time, very safe) bet for them. Whilst there have been demographic changes, it still has a demographic that should favour them but it seems that they are destined to be the most likely to succeed when Labour is doing badly.

The Conservative candidate, Barbara Judson, can be pleased that she managed to increase the vote share by 1.2% since last May but, in a straight fight with Labour, they will need to be achieving in the mid 40's to be sure of a gain. Compared to 2008 when former Councillor Jones stood, the Tory vote has fallen by 14% whilst Labour's has risen by 22.34% (admittedly, 2008 was a terrible year for Labour), a swing of 18.17% to them.

Labour will be delighted to have taken this seat and Councillor Sedgwick will be particulary pleased to have raised the Labour vote share since last year by 2.46%.

The Green's veteran candidate, Janet Cuff, will be pleased that she didn't suffer a squeeze and saw her share of the vote rise compared to 2008 and 2011.

For the Liberal Democrats and their candidate, Andrew Rawling, this is probably a result they would like to forget. Never a good seat for them, they were squeezed in this race and forced into 4th place.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

David Sedgwick  Lab 1913   47.9%   (+22.34%)
Barbara Judson   Con  1553  38.88% (-14%)
Janet Cuff            Grn  364     9.11%  (+0.52%)
Andrew Rawlings  LD 164     4.11%  (-5.04%)
(UKIP -3.83%)
Labour Majority: 360
Swing - Con to Lab 18.17%

Manor:

I got this one wrong but I did wonder (and added to my original post) what the effect of the intervention of the now 'People Matter' Cllr McAuley might be on behalf of Cllr Derbyshire. To be honest, I don't really think that it has made much difference to the result as Labour held its share compared to last year and it was the successful squeeze that the Lib Dems managed to put on the Tory vote that seems to be the main reason for this hold. I suppose he may have convinced a dozen or so people and that would be responsible for the hold, but it is not too worthy of consideration as it can't be quantified.

Compared to last year, the Conservative vote share has fallen by 7.06%, some of that may have stayed at home but some will be the result of a 'keep Labour out' campaign.

The Deputy Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire has worked very hard with her party on this campaign and managed to get her vote out very successfully and she deserves congratulations for this whilst others were losing out. Compared to 2008, her share of the vote has fallen by only 1.06% (remarkable really) and this is the reason for her victory.

Labour's Walter Barrett will be deeply disappointed to have failed to take this seat by only 24 votes and will need to go to the drawing board to work out how to get former Tories to switch to Labour let alone gain even more former Liberal Democrat voters. However, the Labour vote compared to 2008 has risen by a stunning 20.19% and holding on to that share will be the basis of future victory hopes for Labour.

The BNP's Duncan Warner again stood and his vote continued to decline.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Sue Derbyshire  LD 1415 44.32% (-1.06%)
Walter Barrett   Lab 1391 43.56% (+20.19%)
Leslie Judson     Con 235  7.36%  (-10.07%)
Duncan Warner BNP 152 4.76%  (-9.06%)
Lib Dem Majority: 24
Swing - LD to Lab 10.625%

Offerton:

I predicted last year that Labour would take this seat at these elections and I guessed it would be a nailbiter - and it was: Labour's Laura Booth claiming the scalp of Council Leader, Dave Goddard, by just 45 votes. From all reports, this was a real battle and it came down to who could get the vote out and whether Labour could convince enough tactical Lib Dems that they could win. Equally, Dave Goddard had to convince Tories to vote for him to keep Labour out.

In the end, Labour were successful and managed to increase their vote compared to last year by 5.13% whilst the Liberal Democrat's vote slipped by 0.41%. I don't doubt that some Tory supporters may have gone straight across to Labour, but it is more likely that they went to the Lib Dems at about the same rate as voters switched from the Lib Dems to Labour. Only 140 less voted than last year and it is all these slight margins which excite psephologists and frustrate party activists - it is the 'if only' rule: "if only I had got that vote out, if only I had canvassed that street again."

The Conservative vote held up fairly well but, given they were the main opponents to the Lib Dems until last year, they will be concerned that they are clearly third here and weren't able to capitalise on the defection to them of Councillor Smith.

UKIP's Harry Perry would have hoped to have gained at the expense of the Tory troubles nationally, but failed to do so and saw their vote slip back slightly. In such an interesting and close contest, it is hard to be an also-ran.

In the end, it has been Labour's ability to crawl back from the doldrums of recent years and to make themselves a challenger in this ward which is the real story. It was always likely that if Labour re-established itself in Offerton then the main losers would be the Liberal Democrats. Since Mr Goddard last stood in 2008, the Labour share of the vote rose by an extraordinary 26.82% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 12.47%, a swing of 19.645%.

The disappearance of the BNP has added to the political weather - where has that vote gone? Evidence suggests that many are former Labour voters and the party was most successful here when Labour was nowhere, but the BNP voters are a mixed bunch and a lot will be voting UKIP and a few will stay at home.

So, Stockport has lost its Council Leader and the Lib Dems have lost their party boss, it will be interesting to see what happens now but, for Mr Goddard, after 20 years as a councillor (many as a Labour representative), I suspect a bit of a deep breath and a sitdown is in order.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Laura Booth       Lab 1346  36.81% (+26.82%)
Dave Goddard   LD  1301  36.57% (-12.47)
Steve Rodriguez   Con 661 18.07% (-4.41%)
Harry Perry       UKIP 349  9.54% (+9.54%)
(BNP -18.79%)
Labour Majority: 45
Swing - LD to Lab 19.645%

Stepping Hill:

I put this in my Toss Up column and wasn't sure who would win, but (again) I had not taken into account the effect of the 'omni-shambles' budget on Conservative-inclined voters and the Lib Dems successful campaign. Compared to last year, The Lib Dem vote fell only slightly (-0.37%) whilst the Conservative vote share fell by 4.81% giving the Lib Dems a more comfortable majority than last year though somewhat worse than 4 years ago when Councillor Orrell last stood.

The Conservative candidate, John wright, will be disappointed not to have been able to hold or increase the Tory vote share and must be frustrated by the national picture which depressed the Tory vote, but UKIP's Izzy Bolton managed to increase their share of the vote (+2.98%) compared to last May and much of that must have come from the Conservatives. The veteran Green candidate, Ken Pease, will be pleased that he saw his vote share rise by 2.6%.

Labour's Janet Rothwell  managed to avoid a squeeze and increased her vote share since last May by 1.74%. I am sure that she will feel some disappointment not to have made a significant move forward and to be establishing the Labour Party as realistic challengers for the ward but, compared to 2008, the vote share is up by 16.38%.

Councillor Orrell will be fairly pleased with the result but will be concerned at the low turnout and the fact that, compared to when she last stood for election (2008), her party's share of the vote fell by 14.39%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Orrell  LD 1422   39.07% (-14.39%)
John Wright     Con 955   26.24% (-10.34%)
Janet Rothwell Lab  815   22.39% (+16.38%)
Izzy Bolton     UKIP 229  6.29% (+6.29%)
Ken Pease     Grn   219    6.02 (+2.07%)
LD Majority: 467
Swing - LD to Con 1.975%

So - the story is that where there was a competitive battle, the turnout was quite good, and the Liberal Democrats did better than many predicted (including themselves, I would have thought) due to the fall in the Conservative vote compared to last year. It is probably why the Lib Dems managed to hold onto Hazel Grove, Bredbury Green and Romiley along with Manor whilst gaining Cheadle and Gatley.

A lot of Conservatives will be very unhappy with David Cameron but I suspect a lot of Liberal Democrats, when the relative relief fades, will be concerned at the effect that being part of the Coalition has had on their local activist base. Across the north of Stockport and in the old Lancashire wards, the Lib Dems vote has collapsed as disastrously as it has in large parts of Manchester and Rochdale. It is amazing to see how their vote has disappeared in Brinnington and Central (won by the Lib Dems in 2008), Edgeley and Cheadle Heath (once a Lib Dem seat) and the best they achieved was 9.63% in Reddish South.

As Labour discovered to its cost, you cannot wither away in wards or you may find that the way to recovery is a long one.

For the Conservatives, a series of bitter blows when they had hoped for better - they are reduced to only 10 Councillors and are only able to rely (in fairly good times) on the Bramhall wards to return councillors in the Conservative cause. Third in terms of vote share across the Borough and a distant third in terms of the number of Councillors, there needs to be a lot of soul-searching in the Stockport Conservative camp.

For Labour, not-quite unalloyed joy but joy nonetheless; for the third year in a row, Labour has increased its number of seats on the council and, for a successive year, have the highest number of votes cast across the borough. Whilst there will be disappointment at just missing out on taking Manor from the Liberal Democrats, there will be a lot of satisfaction at gaining 4 seats and finally getting a toe-hold in Offerton with the added bonus (for them) of removing David Goddard from his seat. Labour's success in pushing the Liberal Democrats close in Bredbury and Woodley offers them a strategy for becoming the largest party in Stockport with a successful rebuilding of their support in the east of the borough.

So - much to contemplate.

Local Elections in Marple

Marple is on the border between Derbyshire and traditional Cheshire; it used to have an Urban District Council but was brought under the auspices of Stockport MBC after the re-organisation of local government in 1974.
It is beautiful place standing as it does on the edge of the Pennines and the Peaks, with the River Goyt running through. Its major industry was cotton until that went the way of all the cotton towns.

It is presently represented on the Council by 6 councillors, 3 for North Marple ward and 3 for South Marple ward. The statistical make-up of both wards is similar.

Presently, all 6 councillors are Liberal Democrats.

North Marple

Marple North covers the areas of Mellor and Compstall, bordering High Lane to the south, New Mills to the south east, Romiley and Hazel Grove to the west.

Last year, the Labour vote rose by 8.2%, the Lib Dem vote fell by 11.5%, the Conservative vote rose by 2.4%, the Green fell by 1.9% since 2007. UKIP took a 5.9% of the vote, not having stood in 2007.

The Liberal Democrats have dominated politics in North Marple for 30 years with the Conservatives last successfully winning this seat (or its predecessor) in 1982. The arrival of the SDP and the Alliance with the Liberals gave an opening for what was to become the Liberal Democrats and they have held on, sometimes with a very high share of the vote, ever since.

Labour have had some success in the sense of achieving fairly respectable vote shares in the past, under their long-running candidate Ms S Townsend who, in 1995, took 19.2% of the vote and challenged the then very weak Conservatives for 2nd place. She ran in an energy-sapping 7 successive elections in this seat; after a break, she stood again in 2006 and 2007.

The Liberal Democrats defending candidate, Counciller Martin Candler, will remember her well as they both stood for the first time in 1994, he with more success, and he has been the councillor here for 18 years.

Over the years the Lib Dem vote share has been pared back by the Tories but they have remained comfortably ahead with over 50% of the vote. This slipped to 48.1% in 2010 (General Election year) and then fell back badly last year to 40.1%

It is a fairly affluent ward with 36.8% of the population described as being in managerial or professional occupations, 11.4% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), over 17% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 7.35% are Self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures is very low (1.57%) but this might not include some from the large 'not classifiable' group of 19.22%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.

It is a much older population than most wards with 26.08% over 60 (an impressive 9.58% over 75). The median age is a high 43. This reflects the high number of retirees who live in the area and are the most motivated group to vote.

7.51% of the population are single-parent households. 11.47% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. This is a relatively large figure for a more affluent community. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.

The UKIP candidate is again Ray Jones who will be hoping to soak up protest votes from those unhappy with the national Coalition Government and the Local Authority under Lib Dem control. It will be the concern of the Conservative's Annette Finnie to try and take votes from UKIP and the Lib Dems to try and close the gap enough to take the seat from the Lib Dems. It is unknown what effect the Independent candidate, Barry Minshall, will have - he last stood in 2010, garnering 3.3% of the vote.

The Green's Maggie Preston is standing again and she has enjoyed a couple of good results in the past - over 10% in 2006 and 9% in 2007. The Liberal Democrats will be concerned not to lose the votes of disgruntled left-of-centre voters to the Greens or Labour so will be targeting them with the old "Labour can't win here" and "Don't let the Tories in". This has been pretty effective in the past but whether it will be so successful in this difficult time for the Lib Dems locally and nationally, we will find out in a couple of weeks.

As ever, the older voters are the most determined ones and, whilst the Tories would hope to win them over, it will depend on how they are feeling about the low interest on their hard-earned pensions, the 'Granny Tax' debate and any cuts they are facing to local amenities due to the economic situation. Labour are not the first home of choice for the older voters in this area but I think they could pick up quite a number; their candidate, David Rowbottom, will be looking to improve his vote share and that could have an effect on the Lib Dem hopes.

I have to guess and I cannot really see the Liberal Democrats losing here but if their share of the vote falls below 39% then they may be in danger from the Conservatives. I expect local MP Mark Hunter, former local councillor, will be working hard here.

Liberal Democrat hold.

2008 (2011)
M Candler LD 2162 51.2% (40.1%)
C Walsh C 1502 35.6% (32.7%)
M Preston Grn 340 8.1% (7.4%)
D Rowbottom Lab 215 5.1% (14.8%)
(UKIP 4.9%)

Full Candidate List: Martin Candler(Lib Dem), Annette Finnie (Con), Ray Jones (UKIP), Barry Minshall (Ind), Maggie Preston (Green), David Rowbottom (Lab).


South Marple

Marple South covers High Lane, with Hazel Grove to the west, Offerton to the north-west and Mellor to the north.

Last year, the Labour vote rose by 11.8%, the Lib Dem vote fell by 11.1%, Conservative vote rose by 1.5%, the UKIP vote rose by 3.5%. The Greens didn't stand so lost 5.7%


This was a good result for the Labour party and their candidate, Clifford Stanway (standing again this year), who have no recent history of success in either of the Marple wards . The Conservatives will have been disappointed not to achieve a bigger swing to them from the Liberal Democrats and probably feel unhappy with the large UKIP vote of which they would probably garner the majority.This was a fairly comfortable victory for the Liberal Democrats who will hope that last year is the worse that could happen to them given as there seems to have been a fairly clear swing from them to Labour (11.45%). It is hard to see them losing here although there is a big anti-supermarket campaign ongoing and it might cause problems for their candidate, Councillor Shan Alexander who, whilst claiming to lead the campaign against it, is running to catch up with local campaigners. There is also the unfortunate car accident she was involved in a couple of years ago which lead to calls for her resignation; I don't know enough about it and I only mention it here because it may effect her vote.

It is a fairly affluent ward with 35.7% of the population described as being in managerial or professional occupations, 10.4% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), around 19% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 8.4% are Self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures is very low (1.13%) but this might not include some from the large 'not classifiable' group of 20.56%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.

It is a much older population than most wards with 28.04%; over 60 (an impressive 9.87% over 75). The median age is a high 46. This reflects the high number of retirees who live in the area and are the most motivated group to vote.

6.6% of the population are single-parent households. 11.57% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. This is a relatively large figure for a more affluent community. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.

Whilst it will be argued that the 'Granny Tax' isn't really true, it may be hard for the Lib Dems and Conservatives to completely shake the frustration of older people who have worked hard to live off their pensions only to see them decimated by low interest rates. They will want to blame somebody, though they aren't too likely, on the whole, to vote Labour in this area. Maybe the UKIP candidate, Mr Moore, will hope to reap the whirlwind a little here.

The Liberal Democrats are already running their traditional "Labour can't win here" campaign, but it is not likely to produce enthusiasm from those who might want to make a protest and don't want to vote for the Lib Dems, be it for national, local or personal reasons.

I really don't know what to say here - do I think the Liberal Democrats could lose here for the first time since 1984 (the last time the Conservatives successfully fought a seat in South Marple)? It is difficult to see, especially with UKIP taking part. In the end, it will depend on the level of the Labour vote and UKIP vote and who managed to successfully harness the 'no to the supermarket' campaign. This is probably the best chance the Tories and their candidate, Carl Rydings, have had in years but I predict a Lib Dem hold here.

2008                                                            (2011)

S Alexander LD 2051 51.6%                      (42.3%)
W Wragg C 1391 35.0%                            (32.4%)
T Moore UKIP 201 5.1%                             (8.3%)
G Reid Grn 180 4.5%
K Vickers Lab 151 3.8%                            (17.0%)

Full Candidate List: Shan Alexander (Lib Dem), Tony Moore (UKIP), Carl Rydings (Con), Clifford Stanway (Lab)