Review of the Stockport Council election results

So, the votes have been counted and the people have spoken and it is time to reflect a little on what has happened In Stockport, 2 parties have something to be happy about - Labour gained 4 seats and again topped the poll in terms of votes cast (33.39%) and the Liberal Democrats avoided a meltdown, coming second in terms of votes (31.02%) and, whilst they lost three seats that they had held in 2008 (including the Councillor leader, David Goddard's seat in Offerton), they managed to regain Cheadle and Gatley and hold on in Hazel Grove and Bredbury Green and Romiley.
The big losers were the Conservatives who came third in vote share (25.33%) and lost two of their seats (Cheadle and Gatley and Heatons North).

Present Council Composition: (compared to 2008)

Liberal Democrats            28 (-3)
Labour                             21 (+4)
Conservative                    10 (-1)
Independent Ratepayer      3
People Matter                   1

Control of the Council is now open to debate but I would guess that the Liberal Democrats will retain control with the support of the Independent Ratepayers and the People Matter councillor who supported the Liberal Democrat deputy leader (new leader?) in her slim hold in Manor. Of course, I could be wrong.

Brinnington and Central:

This was an easy gain for Labour but the collapse in the Liberal Democrat share of the vote is truly catastrophic, coming third behind UKIP. The Lib Dem's John Reid took only 8.23% of the vote, down by 38.69% since 2008 and it is very much back to the drawing board for the party here. UKIP's Phil Lewis garnered a decent 11.8% of the vote to take second place whilst the former UKIP candidate in 2010, John Heginbotham, managed only 2.94% in his Independent tilt at the seat. The Conservatives' Stephen Holgate will be disappointed to have come in fourth and their vote share slipped compared with 2008 and last year suggesting that, even among their small base in this ward, they have suffered a post-budget backlash.
Labour's Andy Sorton will doubtless battle to prevent Labour losing its heartland seat in the future having achieved a stunning 35.82% swing from the Liberal Democrats since 2008.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Andy Sorton Lab 1677 70.4% (+32.95)
Phil Lewis UKIP 281 11.8% (+11.8%)
John Reid Lib Dem 196 8.23% (-38.69%)
Stephen Holgate Con 158 6.63% (-2.98%)
John Heginbotham Ind 70 2.94% (+2.94%)
(Green - 6.01%)
Labour Majority: 1396 (58.6%)
Swing - LD to Lab 35.82%

Bredbury and Woodley:

I feel fairly pleased with myself with this result as it pretty much turned out as I predicted - Labour's Roy Driver managed to increase the Labour vote by an impressive 6.1% since last May and Labour's vote is up by 26.08% since 2008, the highest vote in this area that Labour has achieved since the creation of the Borough (I am happy to be corrected here) and higher than even Labour's Bill Prince achieved in 1980 when he was elected as Labour's one and only councillor in Bredbury.

The Liberal Democrat's Christine Corris managed to hold on with a massively decreased majority from 2008 and a swing against the Liberal Democrats and to Labour of 22.92% in that period. Whilst 2008 was a disaster for Labour nationwide, this is still pretty stunning in the context of this ward. The Lib Dem vote fell sharply from last May (-7.7%) and the continued collapse of the Tory vote has probably helped Cllr Corris to hold on with a comfortable-ish majority of 181.

The Conservatives will be pretty dumbstruck by their continuing fall in support in this area where a mix of Lib Dem targeting of the vote and the reaction to the Budget has led them to be out of the race for this ward. Their vote share has more than halved since 2008 and this is the worst showing they have had since the present ward was created.

The BNP's Andy Webster took a fairly impressive share of the vote and, as ever, it isn't too easy to speculate where it would have gone if he hadn't stood; many of his supporters wouldn't have voted at all, a few would be Tories but evidence seems to show that BNP voters are often from a disproportionately Labour supporting background so this intervention may have helped Cllr Corris.

The Liberal Democrats are probably delighted that there are no elections in this ward for a couple of years to give them time to rebuild their voter base but if Mr Driver stands again, I see him winning here.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Christine Corris LD 1333 41.19% (-19.76%)
Roy Driver Lab 1152 35.6% (+26.08%)
Chris Kelly Con 469 14.49% (-15.04%)
Andy Webster BNP 282 8.71% (+8.71%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 181 (5.59%)
Swing - LD to Lab 22.92%

Bredbury Green and Romiley:

I got this one completely wrong and I hold my hands up. I was sure that the Conservatives would gain this seat and that Labour would begin to build up their vote share but, when I produced my predictions, the evidence of the post-Budget Conservative collapse wasn't clear and I did not take into account the impressive campaign machine of Councillor Lees who managed to get the vote out whilst the turnout overall for the ward fell sharply. The Lib Dem's 1594 votes were only 14 more than they achieved last year when they were roundly beaten by the Tories, but the turnout in this ward has fallen by a fifth since last May (913 voters less) and the Conservatives voters seem to be the ones who mainly stayed at home with their number of votes down by 906. This is what is known as the rule of differential turnout and the Liberal Democrats have worked it impressively in this ward. Whilst Cllr Lees share of the vote has fallen by 6.82% since 2008, the large fall by the Tories has meant there has been a swing to the Liberal Democrats of 2.06%.

This has got to be very disappointing for the Conservatives who nearly took this seat from Cllr Lees in 2008, coming within 119 votes last time she defended the seat, so I guess there will be a post-mortem asking why they could not enthuse the base to turn out and vote.

Labour's Kathryn Priestly held the vote share from last year (a slight increase of 0.13%) but I expect she will be very disappointed not to have held onto the voters from last year. Nevertheless, Labour has achieved a 13.66% rise in their vote since 2008.

The BNP's Tony Dean achieved 4.1% of the vote and that will have probably have had a similar effect to what I described in Bredbury and Woodley.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Hazel Lees LD 1594 41.14% (-6.82%)
Sally Bennett Con 1332 34.37% (-10.94%)
Kathryn Priestly Lab 790 20.39% (+13.66%)
Tony Dean BNP 159 4.1% (+4.1%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 262 (6.77%)
Swing - Con to LD 2.06%

Cheadle and Gatley:

I am glad I posted last Wednesday night that I was putting this in the Liberal Democrat gain column instead of my initial belief it was a toss-up but a probable Tory hold. Too much was going wrong for the the Tories to see them hold this and congratulations to the new Liberal Democrat councillor Keith Holloway on his victory.

Compared to last year, there was another depressing drop in the turnout here but Cheadle and Gatley managed one of the best turnouts in the borough with 41%. It seems that the Lib Dems managed to get their vote out better than the Conservatives who, despite only losing a small share of the vote on last year (-1.42%) saw their hopes of retaining this seat for Mick Jones fall from their fingers. I guess there will be a lot of blame laid at the hands of the Government's recent budget shambles but that didn't stop the Lib Dems from getting their vote out. As it happens, the turnout was very similar to that of 2008.

The leaflet targeting of Labour voters by the Lib Dems (including quoting attacks on Labour by their former councillor in Manor) to get the Tories out may have had some success as the Labour vote fell back slightly from 2011 by 0.93% and all this added to the margins to make last year's very marginal ward slightly safer for the Liberal Democrat's and produce a gain for them.

Labour's Colin Owen will be disappointed to have not progressed this year, especially given the Coalition government's troubles, but he still managed to improve Labour's vote share since 2008 from 8.77% to 20.4%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Keith Holloway  LD  2030 42.52% (-2.92%)
Mick Jones       Con  1770 37.08% (-8.71%)
Colin Owen       Lab   974  20.4% (+11.63%)
Liberal Democrat Majority: 260
Swing - Con to LD 2.895%

Cheadle Hulme North:

Now, I put this ward in my Toss Up column whilst predicting a Lib Dem hold, the result shows my foolhardiness and I will take the newly re-elected Cllr Pantall's good-natured comment on that post as a well-needed hand slap.

It must be said though that nobody could have foreseen (at least until the few days) the remarkable drop in the Conservative share of the vote, especially given the absence of a UKIP candidate whose voters were unlikely to rush across to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. It would appear that they mostly stayed at home, which must be very worrying for the Conservatives. If they had stood this year, the evidence suggests that UKIP would  have increased its share of the vote.

The voter turnout was depressingly low in Cheadle Hulme North at just 33% but Councillor Pantall managed to get out his vote and, whilst only increasing the number of votes the Lib Dems got in 2011 by 9 votes, he increased the vote share by 10.83%.  The Conservatives share fell by 5.12% whilst Labour's Emily Hewson increased the vote from last May by 1.1%.

So, whilst Councillor Pantall's share of the vote has dropped by over 4% since 2008, he can be pleased with his comfortable majority and the success of his campaign. For Labour, a wonderful increase of over 22% since 2008 with a hefty swing to them from the Lib Dems, but disappointment that they haven't done better and a need to look at how it targets those voters resistant to them.

As for the Conservatives' Chris Green, just thank your lucky stars that UKIP didn't stand or things could have been much worse.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

John Pantall   LD  1762  52.44% (-4.39%)
Emily Hewson Lab 985  29.32% (+22.79%)
Chris green    Con  613  18.24% (-13.02%)
(UKIP - 5.37%)
LD Majority: 777
Swing - LD to Lab 13.59%

Cheadle Hulme South

I predicted a solid Lib Dem victory here but guessed at a reduced majority for Cllr Grice - I was wrong as he managed to hold onto a fairly comfortable majority which, whilst his vote share fell in relation to 2008, the drop in the Conservative vote made more impressive than it could have been. Compared to 2008, the Lib Dem vote fell by 4.47%, the Conservative vote fell by 12.56%,  whilst the Labour vote rose by 11.42% and UKIP vote rose by 6.85%.

Compared to last May however, Labour's Theo Smith saw his vote fall slightly (-1.36%) but this is not a great ward for Labour and it was always going to be a struggle for him. Councillor Grice will be delighted to see his party's vote rise to 46.86% after last years drop but much of this, on a reduced turnout, seems to be based on the Lib Dems managing to get their vote out whilst the Conservatives (28.9%) suffered an anti-Coalition backlash with UKIP rising and many voters staying at home so dropping by 6.76% since 2011.

Other than Cllr Grice, the big winner was UKIP's Cyril Peake who is the only candidate to actually increase his number of voters (up by 108) on 2011 and saw his vote share rise by 3.93% overall. This was bad news for the Conservatives' Julie Smith-Jones and will cause some serious soul-searching in the Tory camp.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Len Grice             LD  1876 46.86% (-4.47%)
Julie Smith-Jones Con  1157 28.9%  (-10.54%)
Theo Smith          Lab   579 14.46% (+11.42%)
Cyril Peake         UKIP 391 9.77% (+6.85%)
(Green -3.27%)
LD Majority: 719
Swing - Con to LD 3.035%

Davenport and Cale Green:

Despite a good campaign by sitting Councillor Ann Smith, this was always going to be a difficult battle for the Liberal Democrats after the seat swung heavily to Labour last year and, with the ward being the place where two LD councillors (Roy Driver and David White) defected to Labour out of frustration with the Coalition government and local cuts, has become a fairly safe Labour seat. On the face of it, the majority that Labour's Wendy Wild has achieved looks fairly low (267, 8.22%), but this is actually a swing to Labour and without a sitting councillor for the Lib Dems in a couple of years, I suspect the Labour majority will be closer to that of last May.

Davenport and Cale Green had a higher turnout than 4 years ago although it dropped pretty dramatically from last year, which seems to have benefited the Liberal Democrats who also managed successfully to squeeze the Conservative vote which fell by 7.26% since last May and by 10.15% since 2008. Without question, a good result for the Lib Dems but only in terms of where they were last May. In terms of 2008, the Labour share of the vote has risen by 17.19% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 7.39%, a swing to Labour of 12.29%. The healthy looking Lib Dem share of 38.01% would probably not have looked as good if the Tory vote hadn't so spectacularly collapsed.

The Green Party's Phil Shaw managed a respectable 6.34% of the vote, although it is down since last May (-2.02%) and the Liberal's Graham Ogden left no mark on this contest with only 37 votes (1.14%).

Whilst it is probably of little comfort to former Cllr Smith, I congratulate her on holding onto a personal vote that made things look slightly better than they could have done for her party.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Wild     Lab   1492   45.92% (+17.19%)
Ann Smith         LD    1235   38.01% (-7.39%)
Jackie Jones     Con    279      8.59% (-10.15%)
Phil Shaw         Green 206      6.34% (+6.34%)
Graham Ogden Lib       37      1.14% (+1.14%)
(BNP - 7.13%)
Lab Majority: 257
Swing - LD to Lab 12.29%

Hazel Grove:

Another seat where I wrongly guessed a Conservative gain, although it was very close and the Conservatives, unlike in other parts of the borough, managed to increase their share of the vote compared to their successful campaign last May. The past few weeks' unmitigated bad news for the national party surely depressed the potential Conservative vote and, as with the rest of the borough, the turnout fell quite steeply. Councillor Hogg managed to get the Lib Dem vote out and is undoubtedly very relieved to see their vote share rise by 5.9% since last May.

The result is actually worse for the Tories than it looks - this year there was no UKIP candidate and, when I first made my prediction of a Tory gain, I believed this would help them. The fact that it hasn't and that UKIP's vote seems to have stayed at home is very worrying for the Conservatives and their losing candidate, Oliver Johnstone. Interestingly, the Conservatives got exactly the same number of votes as in 2008 (1668) but, on a lower poll, have increased their vote share.

Labour's Catherine Sheppard will be disappointed to have not made progress on last year but they can certainly be pleased to have escaped the worst of a squeeze - the vote since last year fell by only 0.61%.

Congratulations to a relieved Councillor Hogg, he held on despite a big drop in his vote share since 2008, most of which has gone to Labour on a huge 12.105% swing.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Kevin Hogg             LD  1736  42.05%   (-12.8%)
Oliver Johnstone      Con 1668  40.41%  (+1.39%)
Catherine Sheppard Lab   724  17.54%  (+11.41%)
LD Majority: 68
Swing - LD to Con 7.905%

Heatons North:

I predicted this one correctly with the share of the vote for the Conservatives and Labour fairly similar to last year but with a slight rise for both parties and Labour enjoying an additional swing from the Tories of 0.625%.

It must be difficult for the Conservatives to know what has happened in this seat which used to be a fairly safe (at one time, very safe) bet for them. Whilst there have been demographic changes, it still has a demographic that should favour them but it seems that they are destined to be the most likely to succeed when Labour is doing badly.

The Conservative candidate, Barbara Judson, can be pleased that she managed to increase the vote share by 1.2% since last May but, in a straight fight with Labour, they will need to be achieving in the mid 40's to be sure of a gain. Compared to 2008 when former Councillor Jones stood, the Tory vote has fallen by 14% whilst Labour's has risen by 22.34% (admittedly, 2008 was a terrible year for Labour), a swing of 18.17% to them.

Labour will be delighted to have taken this seat and Councillor Sedgwick will be particulary pleased to have raised the Labour vote share since last year by 2.46%.

The Green's veteran candidate, Janet Cuff, will be pleased that she didn't suffer a squeeze and saw her share of the vote rise compared to 2008 and 2011.

For the Liberal Democrats and their candidate, Andrew Rawling, this is probably a result they would like to forget. Never a good seat for them, they were squeezed in this race and forced into 4th place.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

David Sedgwick  Lab 1913   47.9%   (+22.34%)
Barbara Judson   Con  1553  38.88% (-14%)
Janet Cuff            Grn  364     9.11%  (+0.52%)
Andrew Rawlings  LD 164     4.11%  (-5.04%)
(UKIP -3.83%)
Labour Majority: 360
Swing - Con to Lab 18.17%

Manor:

I got this one wrong but I did wonder (and added to my original post) what the effect of the intervention of the now 'People Matter' Cllr McAuley might be on behalf of Cllr Derbyshire. To be honest, I don't really think that it has made much difference to the result as Labour held its share compared to last year and it was the successful squeeze that the Lib Dems managed to put on the Tory vote that seems to be the main reason for this hold. I suppose he may have convinced a dozen or so people and that would be responsible for the hold, but it is not too worthy of consideration as it can't be quantified.

Compared to last year, the Conservative vote share has fallen by 7.06%, some of that may have stayed at home but some will be the result of a 'keep Labour out' campaign.

The Deputy Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire has worked very hard with her party on this campaign and managed to get her vote out very successfully and she deserves congratulations for this whilst others were losing out. Compared to 2008, her share of the vote has fallen by only 1.06% (remarkable really) and this is the reason for her victory.

Labour's Walter Barrett will be deeply disappointed to have failed to take this seat by only 24 votes and will need to go to the drawing board to work out how to get former Tories to switch to Labour let alone gain even more former Liberal Democrat voters. However, the Labour vote compared to 2008 has risen by a stunning 20.19% and holding on to that share will be the basis of future victory hopes for Labour.

The BNP's Duncan Warner again stood and his vote continued to decline.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Sue Derbyshire  LD 1415 44.32% (-1.06%)
Walter Barrett   Lab 1391 43.56% (+20.19%)
Leslie Judson     Con 235  7.36%  (-10.07%)
Duncan Warner BNP 152 4.76%  (-9.06%)
Lib Dem Majority: 24
Swing - LD to Lab 10.625%

Offerton:

I predicted last year that Labour would take this seat at these elections and I guessed it would be a nailbiter - and it was: Labour's Laura Booth claiming the scalp of Council Leader, Dave Goddard, by just 45 votes. From all reports, this was a real battle and it came down to who could get the vote out and whether Labour could convince enough tactical Lib Dems that they could win. Equally, Dave Goddard had to convince Tories to vote for him to keep Labour out.

In the end, Labour were successful and managed to increase their vote compared to last year by 5.13% whilst the Liberal Democrat's vote slipped by 0.41%. I don't doubt that some Tory supporters may have gone straight across to Labour, but it is more likely that they went to the Lib Dems at about the same rate as voters switched from the Lib Dems to Labour. Only 140 less voted than last year and it is all these slight margins which excite psephologists and frustrate party activists - it is the 'if only' rule: "if only I had got that vote out, if only I had canvassed that street again."

The Conservative vote held up fairly well but, given they were the main opponents to the Lib Dems until last year, they will be concerned that they are clearly third here and weren't able to capitalise on the defection to them of Councillor Smith.

UKIP's Harry Perry would have hoped to have gained at the expense of the Tory troubles nationally, but failed to do so and saw their vote slip back slightly. In such an interesting and close contest, it is hard to be an also-ran.

In the end, it has been Labour's ability to crawl back from the doldrums of recent years and to make themselves a challenger in this ward which is the real story. It was always likely that if Labour re-established itself in Offerton then the main losers would be the Liberal Democrats. Since Mr Goddard last stood in 2008, the Labour share of the vote rose by an extraordinary 26.82% and the Lib Dem share has fallen by 12.47%, a swing of 19.645%.

The disappearance of the BNP has added to the political weather - where has that vote gone? Evidence suggests that many are former Labour voters and the party was most successful here when Labour was nowhere, but the BNP voters are a mixed bunch and a lot will be voting UKIP and a few will stay at home.

So, Stockport has lost its Council Leader and the Lib Dems have lost their party boss, it will be interesting to see what happens now but, for Mr Goddard, after 20 years as a councillor (many as a Labour representative), I suspect a bit of a deep breath and a sitdown is in order.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Laura Booth       Lab 1346  36.81% (+26.82%)
Dave Goddard   LD  1301  36.57% (-12.47)
Steve Rodriguez   Con 661 18.07% (-4.41%)
Harry Perry       UKIP 349  9.54% (+9.54%)
(BNP -18.79%)
Labour Majority: 45
Swing - LD to Lab 19.645%

Stepping Hill:

I put this in my Toss Up column and wasn't sure who would win, but (again) I had not taken into account the effect of the 'omni-shambles' budget on Conservative-inclined voters and the Lib Dems successful campaign. Compared to last year, The Lib Dem vote fell only slightly (-0.37%) whilst the Conservative vote share fell by 4.81% giving the Lib Dems a more comfortable majority than last year though somewhat worse than 4 years ago when Councillor Orrell last stood.

The Conservative candidate, John wright, will be disappointed not to have been able to hold or increase the Tory vote share and must be frustrated by the national picture which depressed the Tory vote, but UKIP's Izzy Bolton managed to increase their share of the vote (+2.98%) compared to last May and much of that must have come from the Conservatives. The veteran Green candidate, Ken Pease, will be pleased that he saw his vote share rise by 2.6%.

Labour's Janet Rothwell  managed to avoid a squeeze and increased her vote share since last May by 1.74%. I am sure that she will feel some disappointment not to have made a significant move forward and to be establishing the Labour Party as realistic challengers for the ward but, compared to 2008, the vote share is up by 16.38%.

Councillor Orrell will be fairly pleased with the result but will be concerned at the low turnout and the fact that, compared to when she last stood for election (2008), her party's share of the vote fell by 14.39%.

2012 result (in relation to 2008):

Wendy Orrell  LD 1422   39.07% (-14.39%)
John Wright     Con 955   26.24% (-10.34%)
Janet Rothwell Lab  815   22.39% (+16.38%)
Izzy Bolton     UKIP 229  6.29% (+6.29%)
Ken Pease     Grn   219    6.02 (+2.07%)
LD Majority: 467
Swing - LD to Con 1.975%

So - the story is that where there was a competitive battle, the turnout was quite good, and the Liberal Democrats did better than many predicted (including themselves, I would have thought) due to the fall in the Conservative vote compared to last year. It is probably why the Lib Dems managed to hold onto Hazel Grove, Bredbury Green and Romiley along with Manor whilst gaining Cheadle and Gatley.

A lot of Conservatives will be very unhappy with David Cameron but I suspect a lot of Liberal Democrats, when the relative relief fades, will be concerned at the effect that being part of the Coalition has had on their local activist base. Across the north of Stockport and in the old Lancashire wards, the Lib Dems vote has collapsed as disastrously as it has in large parts of Manchester and Rochdale. It is amazing to see how their vote has disappeared in Brinnington and Central (won by the Lib Dems in 2008), Edgeley and Cheadle Heath (once a Lib Dem seat) and the best they achieved was 9.63% in Reddish South.

As Labour discovered to its cost, you cannot wither away in wards or you may find that the way to recovery is a long one.

For the Conservatives, a series of bitter blows when they had hoped for better - they are reduced to only 10 Councillors and are only able to rely (in fairly good times) on the Bramhall wards to return councillors in the Conservative cause. Third in terms of vote share across the Borough and a distant third in terms of the number of Councillors, there needs to be a lot of soul-searching in the Stockport Conservative camp.

For Labour, not-quite unalloyed joy but joy nonetheless; for the third year in a row, Labour has increased its number of seats on the council and, for a successive year, have the highest number of votes cast across the borough. Whilst there will be disappointment at just missing out on taking Manor from the Liberal Democrats, there will be a lot of satisfaction at gaining 4 seats and finally getting a toe-hold in Offerton with the added bonus (for them) of removing David Goddard from his seat. Labour's success in pushing the Liberal Democrats close in Bredbury and Woodley offers them a strategy for becoming the largest party in Stockport with a successful rebuilding of their support in the east of the borough.

So - much to contemplate.

And people doubt there is a God?

Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp has withdrawn their bid for BSkyB. Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.

My favourite Tory, off his pedestal.

When the Conservatives returned to power, albeit in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, I had a certain amount of despair, even though I was tired of the rudderless leadership Labour was giving the country.
My hopes were raised by the appointment of that old Tory warhouse, Kenneth Clarke, as the Lord Chancellor and Minister for Justice. At last, a minister who did not buy into the simplistic maxim of 'lock-em up and throw away the key'.
The early days were hopeful with an emphasis being placed on non-custodial, but enforceable, community sentencing. Added to this was the recognition that Indeterminate Public Protection Orders (IPPOs) were antithetical to rehabilitation and lead to the possibility of a minor infringement leading to, in effect, a life sentence. Also, Ken Clarke's long-standing unhappiness with the expansion of mandatory sentencing filled many of those who work in the Prison Service with some hope that they could get back to the job of managing a prisoner's movement through sentences, dealing with drug abuse, educating and, hopefully, providing a possibilty of rehabilitation, rather than the present nightmare of simply corralling often sick people in inadequately funded establishments.
I know the cuts in the Ministry of Justice are deep, but Mr Clarke's proposals would have saved a lot of money and allowed Prisons to finally do their job properly.
Now, I am in despair again, as the government has backed down in the face of press and public pressure (a public often fuelled by the misreporting of the media).
I actually disagreed with Mr Clarke's proposal to halve the sentences for those found guilty of rape and sexual abuse - although I fully recognise the reasoning. I simply believe that there are some crimes which are too heinous to consider rewarding an early guilty plea.
Having said that, it made sense for other crimes to be offered a halved sentence if an early guilty plea is made. It seems all that has now been lost.
On top of this, the government is introducing another mandatory sentence for possession of a knife, not allowing for any discretion by the court. It seems as if no lesson has been learnt from the heavy-handed approach of the last government.
Hopefully, the IPPO reform will still stick - believe me, there are people in prison because a magistrate thought that there might be a 'medium risk' of a person committing an offence. Think about it - not an actual offence, but the possibility. That can't be right.
So Ken, please don't give in totally, fight back. I am willing to put you back on a pedestal, it just won't be as high this time.

P.S. Where are those great prison reformers, the Lib Dems, in all this?

Even if you are wedded to First past the Post, is this really representative democracy?

I will put on record that I am not a natural supporter of Proportional Representation - I believe that some of its more 'pure' forms allow for the growth of extremes and can give too much power to those in a minority position. Added to this, I do believe in the importance of the link of the legislator to his/her constituents. So, I was quite in favour of the recently defeated AV proposition.
On the whole, I am not an enemy of FPTP as such though I feel there is a need for Electoral Reform.
On the night of the Local Elections, the rather untidy figure of Mick Hancock (Lib Dem MP for Portsmouth South) appeared on the television from the Portsmouth count urging the Lib Dem leadership to listen to the voices of their members and supporters, who were going to give the party a bit of a battering. The surprise was ,despite the looks of concern on the faces of Mr Hancock and his fellows, the Lib Dems did remarkably well in Portsmouth, taking 9 of the seats on offer, with the Conservatives on 4 seats and Labour on only 1 (technically a loss of 1 as their former leader, Leo Madden, was re-elected as a Lib Dem in his seat having been elected as Labour in 2007). Having paid attention to the running commentary from the local press online, it had seemed for a while as if the Lib Dems could have been in for a tough night as the votes piled up on the tables, but the jump in the Labour vote (for instance) seemed to make no difference to the result.
As it happens, there was a big swing away from the Liberal Democrats and towards Labour in terms of votes cast, with a big increase in turnout between 2007 and 2011 (from over 43,000 votes to over 51,000 votes). Obviously, 2010 turnout was high due to the General Election falling on the same day, but even the interest (such as it was) with the AV Referendum can't explain away such a rise in votes cast since 2007. I suppose one could say that the Labour vote was more motivated to turnout with an unpopular Labour government having been replaced by the Conservative/Lib Dem national coalition, but it would be just as true to say that a more competitive series of battles led to a better ground operation from the parties and much more voter interest.
It has to be said that the Portsmouth Lib Dem 'get out the vote 'operation appears to have been what saved the day for many of the sitting councillors.
The astonishing fact is that with less than a third of the votes cast, the Liberal Democrats won 9 seats, whilst the Conservatives, with over 37% of the vote managed only 4 and Labour, with nearly 26% of the vote, managed to hold only Paulsgrove ward. It almost puts you in mind of the old gerrymandered wards of Northern Ireland, but that isn't true because this effect is simply to do with the way the vote was spread in the Portsmouth wards.
You have to admire the success of the Liberal Democrats over the past few years in taking over from the Labour Party as one of the two major parties in the city. Labour presently only hold 2 council seats out of 42, which is stunning when you consider that until the last general election they held one of the two parliamentary seats (Portsmouth North) and they ran the council until the year 2000, the Lib Dems only finally gaining control in 2010. For Labour, when a party falls so far, it takes a long time to climb back. The party can at least congratulate itself with the knowledge that it increased its vote from 2007 by nearly 10%, whilst the Conservative vote fell from 40.61% to 37.33% in the same period. The Liberal Democrat vote held up pretty well, dropping by just 1%.
It is the 'Others' where the big drop occurred this year, with the English Democrats' surprisingly strong showing in 2007 being much reduced from 5.91% to 1.93% (they stood in only 4 seats this time, instead of 10 in 2007), the Greens from 2.47% to 0.95%. In all the 'Others vote fell from a 'protest vote' level of  9.55% to a more usual level of 3.97%. Where the vote went is an interesting question and one would guess that there has been a fair amount of between the party movement.
The question is, I suppose, do I feel comfortable with a system which allows a party which comes second in terms of the vote, to win so substantially in terms of seats. Fair enough, parties often win with less than another party when one has a FPTP system, but to win regularly, whilst second, seems to begin to put into question the validity of the system. I am put in mind of Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, the Premier of Queensland in the Australia, who managed to hold power by winning the most seats whilst being clearly behind in the number of votes cast in the 1983 elections. To be fair, the Liberal Democrats had, unlike Sir Joh in Queensland, no unequal say in the boundaries of the wards of Portsmouth.
So, I suppose one has to say that there is always next year when the Lib Dem vote may, as in the North, other parts of the South and much of the Midlands, begin to collapse, in which case there are several wards which are ripe to be taken : Labour could take Nelson and Paulsgrove from the Conservatives, and Charles Dickens from the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives could take Eastney and Cranewater , St Jude and St Thomas from the Lib Dems. Also, the rise in the Labour vote makes things interesting in Central Southsea, Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea.
The fluctuations of the political system create anomolies, I suspect this one will begin to right itself at the Local Elections of 2012. Also, to be honest, it is no worse than the fact that in some areas, parties with less than 50% of the vote can take all of the seats up for election.
Still, is this really representative democracy?

Stockport - from Conservative fasthold, through Liberal Democrat hegemony and on to Labour hope?

I have paid a lot of attention to the political situation in Stockport over the last couple of years. I used to be involved with the Labour Party in Stockport back in the 1980's when it was a Tory stronghold just beginning to be undermined by the nascent Liberal/SDP Alliance which would become the all-conquering (in Stockport) Liberal Democrats. Labour were the perennial also-rans, safe enough in a few wards but under threat in others. I can remember canvassing in Edgeley (now safely Labour) and, with other canvassers from North Reddish, confidently predicting that the Liberals would take it with around 45% of the vote. We got it right. Things were not so great for Labour back then. Over the past years though, it has been the Conservatives suffering as well, falling to a low third place in seats on the Council and failing to hold any of the Westminster constituencies.
It was easy for the Liberals/Liberal Democrats - they could be all things to all people: a centre-left alternative to Labour in wards like Cale Green and a centre-right alternative to Conservatives in the Cheadle and Bramhall seats. You have to admire their chutzpah; mopping up the Labour votes in Bredbury, Cheadle Hulme, etc. to 'keep the Tories out', whilst simultaneously appealing to Conservatives in other wards to 'stop Labour'.
As with all such tactics, there comes a payback time and that appears to be the beginning of the case in the Stockport Council elections of May 2011.
This has been brewing for sometime. In 2009, a by-election in North Reddish, where the Liberal Democrats had surprisingly lured the popular long-term Labour councillor Ann Graham to defect to them, was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats with them coming fourth behind UKIP. At the 2008 election, the Liberal Democrats had reached a peak at the height of the Labour Government's unpopularity and gained the once seemingly unconquerable Labour bastion of Brinnington and Central, with 46.9% of the vote, after running Labour fairly close in 2007. So shocking was this that Councillor Colin McAllister, long-time Labour councillor for Brinnington, eventually defected to the Liberal Democrats in early 2010 (as he was to discover, in the words of Julia Robert's character in the film 'Pretty Woman', this was a big mistake - Huge!). Councillor McAllister's defection was pretty much the last of the good news for the Liberal Democrats as the General Election of 2010 arrived.
The Council elections held on the same day produced apparently good results for the Liberal Democrats, with them only losing out by the luck of the draw to the Conservatives in Bramhall North after the first dead-heat in living memory. They gained Bredbury and Romiley from the Conservatives and held everywhere else - except the recently acquired seat of Councillor McAllister in Brinnington and Central, where Labour retook the seat with the return of long-term Councillor, Maureen Rowles.
If you looked more closely at the figures though you began to see an interesting renaissance in the Labour vote in some wards - the General Election boosting the turnout among Labour voters. Labour came fairly close to retaking the seats of Davenport and Cale Green and Manor from the Liberal Democrats, just missed out on taking Heatons North from the Tories and polled fairly well in Offerton, Bredbury and Woodley, Bredbury Green and Romiley, Cheadle Hulme North and Stepping Hill. These results were an indicator for what was to come in the Local Elections of 2011.
First came the discomfiture of the Liberal Democrats at Westminster entering a coalition with the Conservatives, then the harsher than campaigned for cuts, which followed quickly on from the Tuition Fees debacle. Councillors Ann Graham (North Reddish), David White and Roy Driver (both Davenport and Cale Green) quit the Liberal Democrat group in protest at central government policies. They originally sat as Independent Left councillors but had applied for membership of the Labour party (actually, they were all former Labour members).
The 2011 elections were not as bad for the Liberal Democrats as they could have been if Labour had realised quite how well they were going to do in some wards, but they lost overall control of the council, losing 2 seats to Labour (Manor and Davenport and Cale Green) and Bramhall North, Bredbury Green and Romiley and Hazel Grove to the Conservatives. The last two of these results are stunning as Hazel Grove had long been a fairly safe seat for the Liberal Democrats and Bredbury Green and Romiley was safe for the Liberals even back in the 80s when I was a Labour worker.
What made the difference? It was the rise of the Labour vote and the apparent refusal of many Labour voters, who had tactically backed the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out, to vote for a party that was not just implementing cuts at local level, but being responsible for many unpopular decisions in the Coalition at national level.
In Bredbury Green and Romiley, the Labour vote rose from 8.6% in 2007 to 22.3%, whilst the Lib Dem vote fell from 46.8% to 30% in the same period; this represents a swing of over 15% from Lib Dem to Labour. All the Conservative candidate had to do was hold on to win (actually, a small rise of 3.5% in the same period).
In Hazel Grove, there is a similar picture with Labour rising from 8.6 (2007) to 18.15%(2011), the Lib Dems falling from 46.8% to 36.15% and the Conservative vote falling (due to the intervention of UKIP) from 44.6% to 38.76%. A swing of over 10% from Lib Dem to Labour. The Conservatives managed to take the seat with their smallest share of the votes cast in years.
Even this isn't the end of the story as the Labour vote rose so dramatically in several seats that they are now in contention at the 2012 local elections. In Offerton (which this author always thought was in play) there was a swing to Labour of nearly 15.7% with the vote rising from 11.4% (and 4th place behind the BNP in 2007) to 31.57%, the Liberal Democrat vote falling from 48% to 36.84% in the same period, while the Conservative vote rose by 4.4% to 21.1%. In Cheadle Hulme North the long latent Labour vote shot up from 7.8% (2007) to 28.2% whilst the Liberal Democrat vote for the long serving Councillor Porgess fell from a staggering 58.8% (2007) to 41.61%, a swing from Lib Dem to Labour of 18.8%. The Conservatives share of the vote fell from 28.5% to 23.36%.
A similar process happened in Bredbury and Woodley (I remember when Bredbury returned a Labour Councillor, I am getting old)where the Labour vote shot up from 8.6% (2007) to 29.5% (2011), the Lib Dem share fell from a stratospheric 65.8% (2007) to 48.9% (2011); a swing here of just under 19% to Labour. The Conservative vote stayed almost static at 21.6%, a drop of just 1.1% in the same period.
In all three of the above cases, the Labour candidate took second place behind the Liberal Democrats which, I believe, will make it very interesting at the 2012 local elections as it will be hard for the Liberal Democrats to hold on to those remaining Labour-leaning tactical voters who will feel that their preferred candidate may now have a chance. There is of course a sizeable Conservative vote in all three constituencies which the Liberal Democrats will target, but who knows how successful that will be when the Liberal Democrat council is unpopular with Conservatives as well.
I think that Labour will take Offerton next year and put up a serious fight in both Cheadle Hulme North and Bredbury and Woodley, as well as, I further predict, taking Heatons North from the Conservatives, Manor and Brinnington and Central, along with Davenport and Cale Green from the Liberal Democrats. I also predict that the Labour vote will rise significantly in Stepping Hill, Cheadle Hulme South, Hazel Grove, Bredbury and Romiley, Cheadle and Gatley. Who knows what even a small rise in the Labour vote will do to the Liberal Democrats in both Marple seats?
These are interesting times for politics in Stockport and will pose questions for the Conservatives as well as they consider how they can take advantage of the problems facing their national partners but local rivals in the Liberal Democrat-led council. Of course, the Conservative vote has begun to fall as well and, if it falls more heavily next year, we could see some interesting results.