Voting to challenge terrorists, and cloth-eared politicans.

Today, we remember all those who were killed in the Manchester Arena bomb, and we do so with genuine sorrow mingled with pride at how we came together to oppose such horror and hatred.
Tomorrow, we are invited to vote in an unexpected European Parliament election and many will do so to make a statement about where they stand on the big constitutional question of the day - party allegiances cast aside to make a statement, one way or another.
It just seems a terrible shame that we will have to do so by the party list system, which means we cannot list our preferences but will have to accept who the parties chose and the order in which they put them.
The terrible conundrum is that the many good people who will make their voice heard for Leaving the EU and will vote for the Brexit Party will have no choice but to elect Claire Fox. It seems that in the rush to have inclusive lists of those of left and right, the Brexit Party hierarchy gave no thought to the fact that their North West list is headed by a woman whose party (now morphed into the "Institute for Ideas", which she runs) defended the Warrington bombing that killed two children and later attacked the IRA for signing the Good Friday Agreement which ended such violence.
Democracy defeats terrorism, voting tomorrow, whichever way one decides to vote, shows a face of defiance to those who thought it was a good choice to kill children at a concert. It is just a crying shame that thought would not be given to the families of 12 year-old Tim Parry and 3-year old Johnathan Ball. 16 years later, on the anniversary of little Johnathan's death, his mother, Marie Comerford, died of a fatal heart attack. Claire Fox has never apologised for the stance she took and, because of this, one of the other Brexit Party list candidates, Sally Bate, resigned.
On this day, we stand tall against terrorism and voting tomorrow will make a strong case for democracy. Nonetheless, it will feel really horrible on Sunday, when the counts begin, if the first name announced as elected is that of Claire Fox.

Andrew Sullivan nails it.

A brilliant reflection on the rwcent "Covington" controversy.
http://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154892972792414&key=c1cdf22cfdb6719d2f056213f6dd4bd2&libId=jrkgfb1j0102rhh3000MAmhj9uflt&subId=3414711&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics%3Fpage%3D227&v=1&out=http%3A%2F%2Fnymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1216%2Fpolitics&title=US%20Politics%20%7C%20Vote%20UK%20Forum&txt=nymag.com%2Fintelligencer%2F2019%2F01%2Fandrew-sullivan-the-abyss-of-hate-versus-hate.html

Abortion and the Down's Syndrome person.

A serious article; please read it to the end:

http://thefederalist.com/2018/06/01/selective-abortion-of-down-syndrome-babies-is-an-absolute-moral-depravity/

An overview of the General Election results in South West England.

This is the fuller version of the edited section in The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2017, that I prepared for the marvellous Dr. Robert Waller.

The election in the South West of England was thought to be one where, outside of a few pockets of (often declining) Labour support , the battle for seats would be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats; as with so much commentary concerning this election, this proved to be fairly off the mark. From the old Hampshire redoubts of Bournemouth, up through Wiltshire and down to the mineral mining village of Constantine in Cornwall, the beginnings of a Labour revival not seen since the 1960s is the story of June 2017. Labour are now second in 32 constituencies, with Independent candidate, Claire Wright, second in Devon East. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats have had MPs in 18 seats here.

There are 55 constituencies, covering the traditional counties of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset (plus Bournemouth and Christchurch), Wiltshire, and Gloucestershire.

Before the election, there were 51 Conservative MPs and 4 Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats having lost all 11 of their seats at the 2015 General Election. If there was to be a revival of fortunes for Mr. Farron’s party, this was thought to be the place where it would be strongest.

In the event, they managed to regain only one seat, that of Bath from the Conservatives. Labour held its 4 seats and gained 3 (Stroud, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bristol North-West), while the Conservatives continue to hold the vast majority of seats with 47 MPs, losing the 4 afore-mentioned seats.

So far so simple, but not really, as Labour did not only hold their seats, 2 of which (Bristol West and East) were at some point during the election campaign seen as at risk, but they piled on the votes to significantly increase their majorities. Their vote share in Bristol West went up a stunning 30.3% for the gloriously named Thangam Debbonaire, to 65.9% and an unbelievable 47,213 votes (37,336 majority) on a 22.15% swing from Green to Labour, where the Green Party candidate’s challenge saw them fall to third place. The former Lib Dem MP, Stephen Williams, saw his vote fall from 18.9% to 7.3% into 4^th place. The Conservatives’ Annabell Tell grabbed the runner-up slot on the basis of her vote share falling the least. This constituency had seen a 12% increase in voter registration since December of 2016, the 6^th highest in the UK.

In Bristol East, the straight Labour-Tory fight saw the Tory vote rise a pleasing 3.7%, only for it to be overshadowed by  Labour’s Kerry McCarthy’s vote share going up by a massive 21.5%, an 8.9% swing mainly due to the 15.5% that UKIP had taken at the 2015 Election (with no candidate this time) going to Ms McCarthy. A 60.5% share of the vote and a majority of 13,394 makes this old seat of Tony Benn and Stafford Cripps feel safe for the foreseeable future.

Bristol South  was very similar for Labour (60.1%, up 21.7%, 7.7% swing) over the Tories (30.7%, up 6.3%), with the Green, Lib Dem and UKIP vote falls going mostly to Labour’s returned Karin Smith.

Bristol North West is Labour’s gain in the city, and a serious disappointment for the Tories who will have hoped that the fact that most of their local councillors are from this ward and that former MP (2010-17) Charlotte Leslie had built up a healthy share of the vote in 2015, made this a shoo-in against an apparently unpopular Labour Party. Not so, with a swing of 9.15% to Labour’s Darren Jones, the losing candidate in 2015, giving him a 4,761 majority. Ms Leslie has a higher share of the vote than when she was first elected in 2010 and must have assumed that the UKIP vote from 2015 was there for the taking but, as we shall see again and again, this was not to the advantage of the Conservatives, and her share of the vote fell by 2.1%

The outer Bristol seats of Filton and Bradley Stoke (Labour up 15.1%), Kingswood (Labour up 9.9%) and Somerset North (Labour up 12.3%), Somerset North East (Labour up 9.9%) showed decent swings to Labour, but with the Conservative vote also rising, they were never in any danger. Labour will be most disappointed in Kingswood not to have done better in a seat held for them by Roger Berry from 1992 to 2010, but the loss of the Bristol wards of Hillfields and Frome Vale at the pre-2010 boundary changes has made it a very different seat and the Tory vote rose by 6.6%. It is notable that Filton and Bradley Stoke (Con maj: 4,182 8.3%) is now a more winnable seat for Labour than Kingswood (Con maj: 7,500 15.4%). Thornbury and Yate, which, along with Filton and Bradley Stoke, replaced Northavon constituency in 2010, was formerly a Liberal Democrat seat held by Steve Webb, whose stint as a Pensions Minister in the Coalition government of 2010-15, destroyed his political career. The Liberal Democrat’s Claire Young will have hoped to close the gap but saw her party’s share of the vote fall further back to 31.4%, losing 6.5%. Defending Conservative, 30-year old Luke Hall, will be delighted and, I suspect, greatly surprised to find himself with 55.3% of the vote and a 12,071 majority. A swing of 10.35% of the vote to him from 2015 will, no doubt, be a little due to the double incumbency effect: the effect of the former MP not fighting the seat again plus the defending MP having first term recognition. Labour’s Brian Mead will be pleased to take 12.1% of the vote (+4.3%), whilst the Green’s Ian Hamilton took only 1.2% (-1.5%). UKIP did not stand this time and their 10.6% of the vote may have gone largely to the Conservatives, but it is difficult to tell, given the tactical unwind of the past voting patterns. I assume a lot of voting churn. In Somerset North East, media darling and middle-aged fogey, Jacob Rees-Mogg was comfortably returned as Conservative MP with 53.6% of the vote (+3.9%), but doesn’t appear to have been the main recipient of the UKIP’s not standing, and he suffered a 3% swing to Labour. Still a longshot aim for Labour, he has a 10,235 majority.

The only bright light for the Liberal Democrats in the whole of the South West was their regain of Bath from the Conservatives’ Ben Howlett, only 2 years after losing the seat. It was a remarkable victory for former Rochdale Conservative councillor (later Rochdale Liberal Democrat leader), German-born Wera Hobhouse, with a swing of 9.8% from the Conservatives and 47.3% of the vote, up a remarkable 17.6% on 2015. She was only selected at the beginning of May after the former candidate, Jay Risbridger, stood down due to family and work commitments. This is a city that was unhappy with the vote to leave the EU and saw a 9% increase in voter registration, the tenth highest in the UK. If Brexit had an effect, this is one of the seats where it was most pronounced against the government. Mr Howlett, a staunch remainer, paid the price for Brexit but won’t have been helped by unfounded allegations of sexual assault that had been made against him and subsequently dropped; his vote fell to 35.8% (-2%). Labour will be pleased not to have been squeezed, seeing a small increase in their share of the vote (14.7% + 1.5%). The Greens saw their vote drop from 11.9% to 2.3%, going over en masse to the Liberal Democrats in a tactical switch. UKIP did not stand, who knows where their 6.2% went, although the turnout dropped here by 1.2%, so maybe many stayed at home.

In Gloucestershire, Labour will be delighted and surprised with their regain of Stroud which, after a 7 year hiatus (otherwise known as Conservative MP, Neil Carmichael) sees the return of David Drew, who had previously announced his retirement from politics having failed to regain the seat in 2015. A seat that had seemed to be steadily drifting away from Labour saw a 9.3% rise in share of the vote and 29,994 votes received, up 7,047 since 2015; this is the single largest number of votes that Mr Drew has ever received, even in 1997 when first elected. Mr Carmichael must have thought that a slight vote rise (45.9% +0.2%) would have seen him through, but he lost by 687 votes. This is an exceptional year with the Lib Dems (3.2%), Greens (2.2%) and UKIP (1.6%) as deposit losing also-rans, their fall in vote share mostly appearing to favour Mr Drew. This seat is still trending Tory, which makes this result exceptionally good for Labour.

In Cheltenham, the Liberal Democrats put a lot of effort and achieved one of their rare large vote increases, up 8.2% on 2015 giving former MP Martin Horwood 42.2% of the vote, but it was not enough to catch the defending Conservative, Alex Chalk, from holding the seat in the Conservative interest, with 46.7% of the vote (+0.5%), a majority of 2,569, and a deep sense of relief. Labour’s Keith white will be happy not to have been squeezed and to have seen his party’s vote rise by 2.2% to 9.5%, while the Green candidate, Adam Van Coevorden, saw his party lose its deposit (1.6%  -3.4%). UKIP did not field a candidate this time and it would be interesting to see a breakdown of where their 7.1% vote went.

Tewkesbury saw Laurence Robertson safely home (as Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee, so interesting times ahead) with 60% (+5.5%) of the vote and a stonking 35,448 votes, with the only other point of interest being Labour’s continuing consolidation in second place, up 7% to 21.8%, reaffirming their dislodgement of the Liberal Democrats as the main, if distant, challengers here. It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats took 35.5% of the vote here in 2010, slipping down to 13.5% this time after their vote collapsed in 2015. In The Cotswolds, 25-year veteran Tory MP, Geoffrey Clinton-Brown saw a 4.1% increase in his vote and he received a massive 36,201 votes. The addition of Minchampton ward in 2010 made this more strongly Conservative, but this is nevertheless an impressive result. The Liberal Democrats continue to fall back here with Andrew Gant slipping into third place behind Labour’s Mark Huband, who saw the party improve on their disastrous 4^th place in 2015 to take 17.9% (+8.7%). The UKIP fall in the vote (-8.9%) probably split evenly between the Tories and Labour with the fall in the Liberal Democrat and Green votes largely going to Labour.

In the constituencies of Gloucester and Forest of Dean, Labour’s hopes of a return to winning ways fell short:  a vote share rise in the City (+8.6%),  was not enough to chase down the sitting Conservative, Richard Graham, who saw a rise of 5% in his own vote, whilst in the Forest, the massive rise in Labour’s vote share (+11.3%) still only put them at 35.9%, a long way behind former Government Chief Whip Mark Harper, on 54.3%, a big jump of 7.4%. Both seats saw a big fall in the UKIP vote, switching mostly to Labour, although significantly to the Tories as well. These are the sort of seats in which Labour should be closer if they are to win power again.

In Wiltshire, the Conservatives’ James Gray  held on comfortably in North Wiltshire where they achieved a 0.5% swing to them from the second-placed Liberal Democrats, now 22,398 behind, having had high hopes in this seat back in 1997, 2001 and 2005 (indeed, Hugh Pym, Health Editor of BBC News came within 3,787 votes in 2001). Mr Gray had a 60.3% share of the vote (+3.1%), with the Lib Dems on 17.7% (+2.1%) and Labour breathing down their necks with 17.5% (up 7.7% and their highest share of the vote in this constituency, renamed from the old Chippenham seat in 1983, since 1970). This seat was radically reorganised in 2010 and should have been worse for Labour, so some achievement. UKIP’s vote collapsed (11.5% to 1.6%) and Labour appears to have been the main beneficiary, whilst the Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. In Chippenham (the newly created constituency in 2010, not the old one, which was renamed in 1983 as North Wiltshire), which includes the market towns of Bradford-on-Avon and Melkaham, a turnout of 75.5% saw Conservative Michelle Donelan achieve a 5.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to achieve a majority of 16,630. She was somewhat flattered by a split opposition which, at this election, came only from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, with UKIP and the Greens not putting up candidates this time. The Liberal Democrat’s Helen Belcher must have hoped that the disastrous swing that unseated the former Liberal Democrat incumbent, Duncan Hames, in 2015, would have begun to unwind, but she saw her party’s vote fall by a further 3.8% to 25.6%, whilst Labour’s Andy Newman saw his previous vote grow from 4,561 to 11,236 (19.7% +11.4%), in only 2 years. Labour appears to have gained most from the absence of a UKIP candidate at this election. Ms Donelan has come a long way from the 15 year-old schoolgirl who gave a speech at the 1998 Conservative conference – it didn’t do William Hague too much harm (well, that is subjective…). Neighbouring South West Wiltshire saw another seat where the Tories took 60% of the vote (+7.3%), with former minister Surgeon Commander Andrew Murrison RNR being returned with a majority of 18,326, although he suffered a swing against him to Labour’s Laura Pictor of 2.9%, who saw her party’s share of the vote almost double to 26.5% (+13.1%), a share of the vote not seen in this area since the old Westbury seat in October of 1974, with Labour not having achieved second place since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, this was an unmitigated disaster, with the party so long the main challengers in this and previous seats, seeing their appalling 10.6% of the vote in 2015 fall further to 9.8% this time. UKIP, who placed second in 2015, did not field a candidate this time and the majority of their vote appears to have swung behind Labour. The Green and Independent candidates lost their deposits. Salisbury saw Minister John Glen hold his seat with a reduced majority of 17,333, after a swing of 3.85% to Labour’s Tom Corbin, but he will not lose too much sleep after gaining 58.1% of the vote (+2.5%), whilst Mr Corbin will be thanking his near namesake for helping his vote rise to 25.5% (+10.2%), Labour’s best result here since 1970. For the Liberal Democrats, total disaster: having been the main challenger, if always the bridesmaid, for four decades, they slipped to 4^th in 2015 when their vote collapsed from 36.9% to 10.1%. The collapse of the UKIP vote to 2.2% (-9.9%) seems to have favoured Labour the most, but the Liberal Democrats made a small advance of 1.2%. Mr Corbin has a consolation prize of having been elected to the City Council, along with his wife Caroline, on 4^th May. In neighbouring Devizes, Minister of State Claire Perry achieved 62.7% of the vote (+5%), and a 21,136 vote majority over Labour’s Imtiyaz Shaikh, who will be pleased to have put Labour in second place with an 8% rise to 21%. In third place, Chris Coleman for the Liberal Democrats achieved a disappointing 9.3% (+1.2%): in a seat where Labour and the Liberal Democrats often tussled for the claim to be main challenger, with the Lib Dems the usual victor, this is very worrying for the party. UKIP saw their vote collapse, managing only 3.4% (-12%), with the Conservatives probably equally sharing their redistributed vote with Labour, whilst Labour probably picked up the 2.6% drop in the Green vote. The Green and Wessex Regionalist candidates lost their deposits.

The Seats of Swindon North and Swindon South are seats Labour need to be gaining if they are to be in government and, again in this part of the South West, they failed to advance enough. They came close in the South, with a swing of 3.45% putting them within 2,464 votes of regaining the seat they lost to Solicitor General Robert Buckland in 2010. He will be delighted to be back with 48.4% of the vote (+2.2%) whilst Labour’s Sarah Church will be able to console herself with an increase of 8.1%, gaining the lion’s share of the UKIP vote collapse of 9.5% and most of the Green drop of 2.1% (both candidates lost their deposits). Stan Pajak for the Lib Dems managed only 4.1% (+0.4%). In the North, defending Conservative, Justin Tomlinson, will be pleased to have held the seat with an 8,335 majority, down from 11,786 in 2015, and 53.6% of the vote (+3.3%). Labour’s Mark Dempsey managed a 3.65% swing from the Tories, but that was mostly due to the collapse in the UKIP vote (2.8% -12.5%) which saw his vote share this time rising by 10.6% to 38.4%, gaining 6,587 more votes than when he stood in 2015. Liberal Democrat flag-bearer, Liz Webster, managed a small increase in the vote (+0.3%) but, along with UKIP’s Steve Halden and the Green’s Andy Bentley, she lost her deposit. We see again that in urban seats the UKIP vote did not go to the governing party, as many expected, but mostly to Labour.

It is hard to believe that Weston-Super-Mare was represented by the Liberal Democrat’s Brian Cotter from 1997 – 2005, and that they came only 2,691 votes from retaking the seat in 2010, because after the shattering collapse in their share of the vote in 2015, dropping from 39.2% to 10.4% and fourth place, they continued to decline this time, seeing their vote fall back to 9.2% for their candidate, Mike Bell. In 2015, Labour’s Tim Taylor snatched a narrow second place over UKIP (18.3% to 17.8%); this year, he nearly doubled the Labour share, gaining 32.7% (+14.4%) and seeing the number of Labour votes rise from 9,594 to 18,438. Their highest ever number of votes in this or it predecessor constituencies, and the highest percentage of the vote achieved since a straight-fight with the Tories’ Sir Ian Orr-Ewing in 1959. For returned MP, former minister John Penrose, he will be pleased to see his vote rise 53.1% (+5.2%), although his majority fell from 15,609 to 11,544, as opposition support coalesced around Mr Taylor. UKIP saw their vote fall to 3.4% (-14.4%), with the Green Party’s Suneil Basu taking 1.6% (-3.4%).  Yet again, Labour are the main beneficiaries of the UKIP collapse.

In neighbouring Wells, former Liberal Democrat MP, Tessa Munt, was widely believed to be in with a fair chance of regaining the seat she held from 2010-15, having taken it from long-term Conservative MP and former minister, David Heathcoat-Amory. In the event, and despite increasing the party’s share of the vote to 37.6% (+4.9%), she managed only a 0.45% swing from the Conservatives’  Major James Heappey, who held the seat with a majority of 7,582, only 3 votes less than 2015. He managed to increase his share of the vote to 50.1% (+4%), so will be feeling fairly satisfied. Labour will be happy to have seen their vote rise to 11.7% (+5.1%) with the Christian Peoples’ Alliance candidate, Lorna Corke, managing only 0.5%. UKIP, who came third in 2015 with 9.9%, and the Green Party, who had 4.1% last time, did not stand this time (the latter to help Ms Munt).

Somerton and Frome used to be part of the sea of Liberal Democrat yellow that made up this part of Somerset, with David Heath representing the seat from 1997 until he stood down in 2015, to be replaced in the yellow corner by former MP for Newbury, David Rendel (who sadly died from cancer a year later). 2015 was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats here, as in much of this region, and they saw their vote fall from 47.5% to 19.4% (-28.1%), with the Conservative candidate, David Warburton, gaining the seat with an enormous 18.3% swing.  By all accounts, a thoroughly decent bloke and former composer, Mr Warburton was untroubled this time, achieving a further swing to him of 1.2%, achieving a massive 22,906 majority, with 57% of the vote (+4%). Mark Blackburn, for the Liberal Democrats, managed to slightly increase the party’s share to 21% (+1.6%), but will be feeling the heat from the Labour Party, whose candidate, Sean Dromgoole, managed to more than double the vote to 17.3% (+10%). Theo Simon, for the Green Party, took 3.2% (-5.8%), whilst Independent, Richard Hadwin, took 1.6%. UKIP, having placed third in 2015 with 10.7% of the vote, did not stand this time, and much of their vote appears to have gone to Labour.

Yeovil, former seat of Liberal Democrat Leader, Paddy Ashdown, is another seat where the his party fell back, rather than challenged, with sitting Tory MP, Marcus Fysh, re-elected with a big rise in his party’s share of the vote  to 54.5% (+12%), whilst Jo Roundell Greene (Lib Dem), saw her party’s position slip back to 29.7% (-3.4%). Labour’s Ian Martin took 12.5% (+5.4%) while the Greens’ Robert Wood took 1.8% (-2.1%), with Independent candidate, Katy Pritchard, taking 1.5%. When coalition Government Minister David Laws lost this seat for the Lib Dems in 2015, it was a big shock, but they must have hoped for a bounce this time, so the party’s continuing unravelling is a concern for them in this most heartland of seats, which they had held since 1983. With UKIP not standing this time, their 13.4% seems to have mostly favoured Mr Fysh.

Completing the stretch of former Liberal Democrat-held seats in Somerset, Taunton Deane, with its predecessor seat, Taunton, has swung from Conservative to Liberal Democrat for 20 years, with Jackie Ballard winning for the LDs in 1997 (2,443 majority), losing it to Adrian Flook of the Conservatives in 2001 (235 majority), Jeremy Browne regaining the seat for the LDs in 2005 (573 majority), then holding it fairly comfortably in 2005 after boundary changes (3,993 majority), and then the 2015 nightmare for the yellow camp, with a 16.8% swing to the Conservatives candidate, Rebecca Pow, and Rachel Gilmour (replacing Jeremy Browne) seeing the party’s vote fall to 21.3% (-27.7%). This time, there was something of a regrowth for the Liberal Democrats to 27.7% (+6.3%), but only a marginal 0.75% swing from the Conservatives. UKIP’s Alan Dimmick saw his party’s vote slump to 2.3% (-9.7%), with the Green’s Clive Martin taking 1.8% (+2.7%). Whilst the latter’s vote may have gone to help the Lib Dem representative, Gideon Amos, the UKIP vote seems to have moved around a bit, with Labour seeing a significant rise to 15.4% (+6.1%).

Bridgwater and West Somerset is represented by Ian Liddell-Grainger, who replaced Tom King in the old Bridgwater constituency (boundary changes in 2010) at the 2001 General Election; now Baron King of Bridgwater, the former MP served in the Cabinet in Departments of State, most notably in Defence. Mr Liddell-Grainger is the great-great-great-grandson of Queen Victoria. He held this seat with a share of 55.1% (+9.2%), whilst Labour local councillor Wes Hinckes achieved 28.6% (+11%). The town of Bridgwater itself has a long radical tradition with James Scott, 1^st Duke of Monmouth, proclaimed King on the Cornhill in Bridgwater in 1685; as history attests, it didn’t go well for him or nine locals. In 1785, it was the first town in Britain to petition the government to ban slavery, and, in 1896, trade unionists in the brick and tile industry were cleared by troops from the town after a number of strikes – the Riot Act was read and barricades forcibly cleared. From 1938 – 45, the constituency was represented by an Independent Progressive (and sometime Common Wealth) MP, Vernon Bartlett. So, a Labour town, with a Conservative MP due to West Somerset and outer Sedgemoor Council wards. The Liberal Democrats slipped back to 10.9% (-1.6%), whilst  Simon Smedley for UKIP,  who were second in 2015, fell to fourth place with 3.6% (-15.6%), with the vote splitting fairly evenly between Mr Liddell-Grainger and Mr Hinckes, whilst some appears to have stayed at home, this seat saw a drop of 2.3% in turnout. Kay Powell, for the Green Party, took 1.8% (-3%). A swing of 0.9% to Labour, a majority of 15,446.

Except for a shock by-election gain by the Liberal Democrat Diana Maddock in 1993, which went back to the Tories in 1997, Christchurch constituency has been safely Conservative since its creation in 1983, the Tory vote share was 67.1% then, and is 69.6% now (+11.5% since 2015). The major change is that Labour have replaced the Liberal Democrats as the main challenger, with their candidate, Patrick Canavan, taking 19.9% of vote (+10.3%), with the Liberal Democrats back a distant third on 7.9% (+1.4%). Chris Rigby for the Green Party achieved 2.6% (-1.7%).  Christopher Chope, who gained the seat in 1997, and previously spent 9 years as MP for Southampton Itchen, will be delighted with his 25,171 majority. Surprisingly, UKIP did not defend their second place and 21.5% share of the vote from 2015, and the vote appears to have split fairly evenly between Mr Chope and Mr Canavan.

Among the “Slap your face with your hand” results of the general election, were those in the two Bournemouth divisions, where Labour managed to achieve their highest ever vote shares of 35.6% (East) and 36.2% (West). In 2015, Labour lost its 3 seats on the borough council, and the Conservatives took 52 out of 54, with only a Green and Independent candidate holding off the blue tide.  In Bournemouth East, lecturer Dr Mel Sample saw an 18.9% vote increase (17,284 votes, up from 7,448 in 2015), to finish 7,937 votes behind Foreign Office Minister, Tobias Ellwood, who took the Conservative share of the vote up to 51.9% (+2.7%). The Liberal Democrats’ Jon Nicholas came a long way back in third place with 6.5% (-1.9%), having been main challengers since 1983, they regularly got around a third of the vote here. UKIP’s David Hughes was unable to defend his 16.5% from 2015, falling to 2.9% (-13.6%), with his vote solidly going to Labour.  Greens’ Alasdair Keddie took 2.5% (-4.7%), with an Independent on 0.6%. A similar picture in Bournemouth West, where veteran local Labour figure, David Stokes, saw his vote rise by 18.5% (16,101, from 7,386 in 2015), finishing 7,711 votes behind Conor Burns, Conservative MP since 2010. Labour have usually been third in this seat since 1983 (although Mr Stokes took second place in 2001) with a fairly strong vote as it includes the Kinson wards which often elect Labour councillors, though in 2015 it was behind UKIP. The Liberal Democrats Phil Dunn saw his party’s vote fall back again to 6.6% (-1.3). UKIP put up no candidate this time, and the 18.5% they received in 2015 matches the rise in the Labour vote; however, given the drop in the Green vote for their candidate, Simon Bull, more likely going to Labour, one can imagine the 5.3% rise for Mr Burns (who took 53.5%), was largely from UKIP. The Pirate Party’s Jason Halsey didn’t get much from the seaside with 0.9%.

Next door Poole has the distinction of the highest unemployment in the County of Dorset, with the centre and north of the town being in the Index of Multiple Deprivation, whilst the ward of Canford Cliffs has Sandbanks on the coastline with multi-million pound properties. Oil extraction, insurance, care and retail industries are based in the town, and it is a tourist rich area. So, no surprise that Conservative MP, Robert Syms, was returned for the sixth time with 57.9% of the vote (+16.6%). Whilst Labour don’t have any councillors in Poole, they have often managed to poll quite strongly at General Elections, with local man, Peter Watt (briefly Labour Party General Secretary), taking second place in 2005. The surprise is that they came second this time with 29.4%, a huge rise of 16.6% on 2015, with 14,679 votes up from 6,107, their highest share of the vote since 1970, and highest number since 1983. After the disastrous collapse in vote share in 2015 (a drop of 19.8%), the formerly strong Liberal Democrats fell further from 2015 to 8.9% (-2.9%). UKIP did not defend their second place from 2015, and their 16.8% seems to have split more for Labour, with the drop in Green support to 2.6% (-2%) likely to favour them as well. A Demos Direct Initiative candidate, Marty Caine (remember the late great comedienne?) taking 1.1%. A swing to Labour of 4.4%.

Dorset Mid and Poole North is a seat that had only the three man parties standing. Not much to see, except to say it is another former Liberal Democrat seat that has slipped further from their grasp: held by Annette Brooke from 2001-15 (rarely comfortably), Conservative Michael Tomlinson gained it in 2015 with 11.2% swing. Any hope that Vikki Slade (who defended the seat in 2015) had of regaining the seat seems forlorn, as her vote slipped back slightly (-0.7%), whilst Mr Tomlinson saw his vote rise to 59.2% (+8.4%). Bringing up the rear in the red colours, Labour’s Steve Brew will be happy to more than double his vote share to 13.3% (+7.4%). No Green Party or UKIP candidates this time, with the latter’s 12.2% seemingly splitting fairly evenly, whilst the former’s 2.8% probably went towards the Lib Dems and Labour.  Swing to Conservatives of 4.5%, majority of 15,339.

In neighbouring Dorset North, the main point of interest is that Labour candidate came second, for the first time in the history of the party fighting this seat. Conservative Simon Hoare successfully defended his seat with a massive 64.9% (+8.3%), Labour’s Pat Osborne took their highest ever share of the vote with 18.6% (+9.7%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Thomas Panton only managing to raise their historically low share of the vote in 2015 to 13.6% (+1.9%), this in a seat the Liberal Democrats were only 4.2% behind the Conservatives in 2005. The Green Party’s John Tutton took 2.9% (-2.8), while UKIP did not defend the seat where they came second in 2015, their 17.1% of the vote then apparently redistributing fairly evenly between the top two. Swing of 0.7% from Conservative to Labour, majority of 25,777.

On the Jurassic Coast, Dorset South was a Labour seat between 2001 and 2010, with Jim Knight (now Lord Knight of Weymouth) going on to hold several government posts. The Labour vote is concentrated in the borough of Weymouth and Portland, but has been balanced by wards from Purbeck district and Owermoigne ward from West Dorset. The seat was made more Conservative by the addition of the gloriously named Creech Barrow ward from Purbeck District and, with Labour slipping back against the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats in recent local elections, Richard Drax, the Conservative MP since 2010, was never likely to feel under threat. He took a very comfortable 56.1% of the vote (+7.2%), whilst Labour’s Tashi Warr took 33.6% (+9.4%). For the Liberal Democrats, Howard Legg took 5.9% (-0.1%) and Jon Orrell, for the Greens, took 4.4% (-0.3%). UKIP didn’t stand, with their 15% last time seemingly splitting fairly evenly between the Tories and Labour. A 1.1% swing from Tories to Labour, with an 11,695 majority.

Along the Jurassic Coast in Dorset West, long term MP and ex-minister, Oliver Letwin, took 55.5% of the vote (+5.5%), with the Liberal Democrat’s Andy Canning runner-up with 23.5% (+1.9%). Labour’s Lee Rhodes saw his party vote share go up to 18.3% (+8.3%), their best since October, 1974, whilst Kelvin Clayton of the Green Party was the only one to lose votes with 2.7% (-3%). UKIP did not defend their 12.5% from 2015, and Labour appears to have picked up a slight plurality of those votes. Hard to believe that this was a very close seat for Mr Letwin, with the Liberal Democrats pushing him hard in election after election. He will be very happy with a majority of 19,091, with a swing to him from the Liberal Democrats of 1.7%.

In North Devon, former Armed Forces Minister Sir Nick Harvey’s hopes of regaining the seat he held for the Liberal Democrats for 23 years, but lost in 2015, were dashed, despite a closer result than in many former Liberal Democrat seat in the South West. He saw his share of the vote go up to 38% (+8.6%), but failed to close the gap of the re-elected Conservative, Peter Heaton –Jones, who managed to take 45.8% (+3.1%). Sir Nick would have hoped to appeal to tactical Labour voters, but they don’t seem tempted anymore and Mark Cann for Labour saw his vote this time go up to 12.7% (+5.6%). In 2015, Steve Crowther, at the time of writing the interim leader of UKIP, took 14.8% of the vote, but this fell precipitously to 2.1% (-12.6%) this time; it seems to have split in various directions. For the Green Party, Ricky Knight took 1.4% (-4.4%). Swing of 2.75% to the Liberal Democrats, majority of 4,332.

Devon West and Torridge is another former Liberal Democrat seat, which elected John Burnett (now Baron Burnett) in 1997, replacing Emma Nicholson who had defected from the Conservatives in 1995 (now Baroness Nicholson, returning to the Conservative fold in 2016). They held the seat until 2001, losing it to Geoffrey Cox QC, who retained the seat this time for the Conservatives with 56.5% of the vote (+5.7%), their highest share since the seat was created in 1983. For the Liberal Democrats, David Chalmers was not able to retake the runner-up spot lost to UKIP in 2015 (when the Lib Dem vote fell from 40.3% to 13.2%), only increasing to 17.7% (+4.5%). In second place, and to the surprise over just about everyone, was Labour’s Vince Barry, who saw the Labour vote rise to 12,926 (21.7% +11.1%) from 6,015. The Green candidate, Chris Jordan, saw his party’s share of the vote fall to 2.7% (-4.2%) with an Independent taking 1.3%. UKIP, as with most seats in this area, did not stand, and their 18.3% from 2015 appears to have substantially gone to the Labour Party. 2.7% swing to Labour, 20,686 majority.

Tiverton and Honiton has been comfortably Conservative since a relatively close shave for former MP, Angela Browning, in 1997, when she held off a Liberal Democrat challenge by 1,653 votes. Since 2010, Neil Parish has been the Conservative MP, and his main challenger is now the Labour Party whose candidate, Caroline Kolek, took 27.1% of the vote (+14.4%. As Mr Parish had 61.4% of the vote (+7.4%), he won’t be too worried. The formerly strong Liberal Democrats continued to fall back from their collapse in 2015, falling to only 8% of the vote (-2.4%), with the Green’s Gill Westcott taking 3.5% (-2.8%). UKIP, second in 2015, did not field a candidate, and their 16.5% seems to have gone mainly to Labour. Swing to Labour of 3.5%, 19,801 majority.

Devon East, to the east of Exeter and with a shoreline of the Jurassic Coast, including the towns of Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Cranbrook and Ottery St. Mary, created in 1987 and reorganised in 2010, had one of the most fascinating contests of the 2017 General Elections, with former minister Sir Hugo Swire, the local Conservative MP since 2001, facing a real challenge from Independent local councillor, Claire Wright, who received a lot of publicity and backing. Councillor Wright took 24% of the vote from nowhere in 2015, and was seen as the one person who might dislodge the incumbent knight. She made a good fist of it, increasing her vote to 21,270 (up by 8,130) and taking 35.2% of the vote (+11.2%). Sir Hugo managed to increase his share of the vote to 48.5% (+2.1%), whilst Labour’s Jan Ross increased the party’s vote to 11.4% (+1.1%). The Liberal Democrats, formerly the main challengers, were supplanted last time by Cllr Wright, and they declined to a stunning 2.4% of the vote (-4.4%, -28.8% since 2010). UKIP fell to 2% (-10.5%) and two other Independent candidates managed 0.4% of the vote between them. The UKIP vote seems to have solidly swung behind the anti-establishment figure of Claire Wright. There was a 4.55% swing to Cllr Craig, with Sir Hugo’s majority falling to 8,036.

Devon Central was created as a new constituency in 2010, when the number of Devon seats increased from 11 to 12. Estimated to be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal, it has been held by the Conservative’s Mel Stride since 2010. In 2015, the Liberal Democrats fell to fourth place with 12.2% of the vote (-22.2), this time they were third with only 11.7% (-0.5%). The Green Party’s Andy Williamson, who had a decent 4,866 votes (8.9%) in 2015, saw it slip to 1,531 (2.6%) this time; UKIP fell from second to fifth place with 2.3% (-10.9%), with Labour’s Lisa Robillard Webb seeing a doubling of the party’s vote to 27% (+14.1%). National Health Action’s John Dean took 1.5% with the Liberal Party’s Lloyd Knight taking 0.8%. Mr Stride took 54.1% and a 15,680 majority. There was a swing to Labour of 6.5%.

Exeter‘s MP, Ben Bradshaw, has represented this seat in the Labour interest since 1997, but I doubt he thought would ever have such a large majority: the University town produced a swing to him of 7.9% with a vote share of 62% (+15.6%), and procuring an extra 9,274 votes to reach 34,336. The Conservative candidate, James Taghdissian, held his party’s vote share at 32.9% (-0.2%), but the absence of UKIP (-9.4%), and with the Liberal Democrat’s Vanessa Newcombe managing only 2.8% (-1.5%), and Joe Levy for the Greens receiving 1.9% (-4.6%) the former BBC journalist swept up most of the redistributed votes (with some inevitable churn) and the increased turnout (up 1.5%). Two Independents took 0.5% of the vote between them. Hard to believe that this ancient constituency has only once been represented by a Labour MP in the past: Gwyneth Dunwoody in the 1966 parliament. Majority: 16,117 votes.

Newton Abbot, created in 2010 to cover Teignmouth, Dawlish, Newton Abbot and the environs, was created from the former Teignmouth seat held by the Liberal Democrat MP, Richard Younger-Ross, from 2001 to 2010. It was seen as a gain by the Conservatives’ Anne Marie-Morris in 2010 and Richard Younger-Ross’s attempt to regain the seat in 2015 saw his vote drop to 23.9% (-18.1%). This time, the Liberal Democrat’s standard-bearer, Marie Chadwick, fell into third place with 20.5% (-3.4%), with James Osben taking the Labour Party up to second place for the first time, more than doubling the party’s vote share to 22.2% (+12.4%). The Green’s Kathryn Driscoll took 1.8% (-2.8%), with UKIP not defending their 13.9%. Ms Morris saw her vote share raise to 55.5% (+8.2%), with a 17,160 majority.

Torbay, another former Liberal Democrat seat represented by Adrian Saunders from 1997 (gained by only 2 votes from Rupert Allason (otherwise known under the pen name of Nigel West) to 2015, this was a seat that the Liberal Democrats had hopes of retaking, but it was a tough ask with a new candidate and the Conservative MP Kevin Foster defending his short incumbency. Mr Foster returned with a greatly increased share of the vote (53% +12.4%). Deborah Brewer for the Liberal Democrats only took 25.1% of the vote (-8.7%), whilst Labour more than doubled their share to 18.2% (+9.5%). As is the common picture in this election, Anthony McIntyre saw his UKIP vote collapse to 2.4% (-11.2%), with the Green Party’s Sam Moss taking 1.3% (-0.2%). A significant turnout increase of 4.4%, it is hard to say for certain where the redistributed and new votes went, without more detailed analysis. Swing to Conservatives of 10.55%, majority of 14,283 votes.

Held for the Conservatives by the independent-minded former GP, Sarah Woolaston, since 2010, Totnes was almost gained by the Liberal Democrats in 2005, but their vote collapsed in 2015 and they came bottom of the poll with 9.9% (-25.7%), with their votes spreading fairly evenly out to the other four candidates (Con, UKIP, Lab, Green). This time, their candidate, Julian Brazil, has managed to increase his share of the vote to 12.9% (+3%), and moved into third place. For Labour, Gerrie Messer has fairly strongly, if somewhat surprisingly for this seat, moved into second place with 26.8% of the vote (+14.1%). Jacqui Hodgson for the Greens took 4.2% (-6.1%) and UKIP’s Steve Harvey gained 2.5% (-11.7%). With the Conservative vote only rising marginally to 53.7% (+0.7%), and with the turnout increasing by 4.5%, the opposition to the sitting MP swung firmly behind Labour; if this stays the case in the future, the Liberal Democrats will have serious problems. Swing to Labour: 6.7%, Majority: 13,477.

Devon South West has been represented by Gary Streeter since 1997, formerly MP for Plymouth Sutton (1992 -97), when it was created. He has always been fairly safe and his 59.9% (+3.3%) will do him nicely. In the past Labour and the Liberal Democrats have swapped second and third place, but Labour are clearly second now with Philippa Davey taking 29.9% (+13.3%), the Liberal Democrat’s Caroline Voaden fell back to 5.2%(-2.3%). UKIP’s Ian Ross gained 2.9% (-11.6%) and the Green’s Win Scutt received 2.1% (-2.7). UKIP’s vote largely went to Labour as, I assume, did the former Liberal Democrat and Green votes. 4.9% swing to Labour, majority of 15,816.

In Plymouth Moor View, the UKIP vote fell by 17.4% and swung heavily to the Conservative’s defending MP, Johnny Mercer, whose vote increased to 51.9% (+14.3%). In second place, Labour will be disappointed to have failed to retake the seat they only lost in 2015 by 1,026. Sue Dann managed to take the Labour vote up to 40.8% (+5.6%), but it appears that former military man, Mr Mercer, has gained from incumbency and the fact that the former Labour MP, Alison Seabeck, did not stand this time. Graham Reed for the Liberal Democrats managed only 2% (-0.9%), with Josh Pope for the Greens taking 1.2% (-1.2%). Swing to the Conservatives: 4.3%, 5,019 majority.

In Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, it was a different story from the northern neighbour, with Labour’s Luke Pollard taking the seat from Conservative incumbent, Oliver Colvile, who had held the seat since gaining it from former Labour MP, Linda Gilroy, in 2010. When the seat was first announced, the council’s returning officer hadn’t included all wards, to add to a nightmare to do with not registering votes in time for the election. In the end, the correct result showed Mr Pollard taking 53.3% of the vote (+16.6%), Mr Colvile taking 40% (+2.2%), Richard Ellison for UKIP down to 2.7% (-11.4%), the liberal Democrat’s Henrietta Bewley taking 2.4% (-1.8%), the Green Party’s Dan Sheaff taking 2.4% (-5.9%) and an Independent with 0.5%.  The UKIP votes, unlike in the northern neighbour, swung heavily behind Mr Pollard. A swing of 7.2% to Labour and a 6,807 majority.

Cornwall was a fascinating election story, with the Duchy returning 6 Conservative MPs again, but with Labour becoming the main challengers in 4 of the seats (up from 1 in 2015). It is hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats recently dominated Westminster politics here (all of the constituencies in 2005) as Labour saw massive increases in the Labour share of the vote in Truro and Falmouth (up 22.5% to 37.7%), St. Austell and Newquay (up 18.8% to 29%), Camborne and Redruth (up 19.3% to 44.2%) and Cornwall South East (up 13.3% to 22.6%). The Liberal Democrats only remain contenders in North Cornwall and St. Ives, in the first of which former MP Daniel Rogerson (2005-2015) increased his vote to 36.6% (+5.3%), but still lost to Scott Mann who took 50.7% (+5.8%) and has a majority of 7,200. Labour managed to increase its vote share to a reputable (for this seat), 12.1% (+6.6%). In St. Ives, Andrew George, Liberal Democrat MP for 18 years, came within 312 votes of retaking the seat from Derek Thomas, with a swing of 2.3%. Christopher Drew, Labour candidate, in a rare three header, took 14.2% (+4.9%). Labour’s vote in Penzance has become very strong and it seems to have cost Mr George his chance to retake the seat, which Mr Drew might also regret. The failure of UKIP to field candidates in what was one of its most established power-bases and where they had recently had success in the 2013 Unitary Council Elections (all lost since in resignations and election defeats) was illuminating.. They only fielded one candidate, in Truro and Falmouth, garnering only 1.6% of the vote (-10%). The Green Party seems to have stood back in this election in a form of “Progressive Alliance” solidarity, fielding only three candidates (Truro and Falmouth, Cornwall South East and Camborne and Redruth). Mebyon Kernow, the local Cornish party, decided not to stand after the recent Unitary Council Elections due to lack of resources. It has been a conundrum for a long time as to why an area of such relative deprivation, such as Cornwall, has not been more successful for Labour, well, that may now have changed for future elections, where they will be looking to squeeze further the Liberal Democrats to overcome the 1,577 Conservative majority of George Eustice in Camborne and Redruth (LD: 6.1% -6.3%) and the 3,792 majority of Sarah Newton in Truro and Falmouth (LD 14.9% - 1.9%). In the latter, the local press reported that tactical voting to keep out the Tories should go to the Lib Dem’s Rob Nolan. Maybe this cost Labour a famous victory. One anecdote for Cornwall, where Labour’s membership increased dramatically in the last two years, which has had a galvanising effect in some areas, on the day of the election it was tweeted : “The main roads in Penryn are full of Labour posters”, If you know Penryn, that was a major sign of political times a’changing.

He raises his head above the parapet, and nobody notices.

Dear Reader,

I haven't posted in quite a while, despite the remarkable election results, lots of interesting political incidents, football and, well, football. So much going on in the religious arena too.

What can I say? I have been ludicrously busy but also distracted.

Well, I have done a review of the election results in the South West of England which I will, when I can find it, post on here. 

I wish you all well.

A reflection on the Manchester Arena attack.

Jeremy Corbyn made some salient points in his speech, but it is all somewhat beside the point: whilst intervention in the Umaah is used as a reason for faux outrage by many extremists (faux, in the sense that the purpose of their terrorist attacks and militaty incursions in Muslim countries is to invite war), the reality of what drives/encourages/manipulates these young men to their actions is complex and, on the whole, fed by the belief that they have been treated as the underdog, cast-aside, used (pick your adjective or noun). In joining a group who consider themselves elite and everybody else as "kāfir", they are able to to feed their own sense of entitlement, bolster their idea of personal heroism, thus allowing them to bully, threaten, cheat and deceive with impunity. Many of these people are more than willing to play the victim if it gives them a weapon with which to beat the authorities/establishment/the man/the police (take your pick), but they are amused and dismissive of those who give in to them in this way.
Prisons are are an interesting example of how they work - they gain control by demanding their rights, shouting "racist", putting in complaints, harassing and ridiculing the Muslim Chaplains, refusing to allow female officers to search their persons or their pads, trying to claim religious exemptions from statutory requirements. The Muslim gang is brought together by being a mix of muscle and religious doctrine. On each wing, one prisoner will be seen as a teacher and other prisoners (often very vulnerable) will be brought to them for religious instruction, often fed by extremist literature that has been smuggled into the prison -in some cases, books donated by a Muslim charity will be of an extremist nature that nobody bothered to properly check (although this has improved). On the wings, Muslim prisoners set up an almost parallel community and, if they see a threat in the form of another gang, will seek to absorb it or, if that fails, try to crush it by using violence, often by assaults in the workshops, during movements, in education, gym, etc., with prisoners from another wing used to commit the assaults.
If a prisoner has been forced onto the "numbers", they will then invite them to reapply for the main wing if they are willing to convert. Prisoners who have self-evidently never been Muslims in their lives argue vociferously with staff that they are Muslim, get the Muslim Chaplain down to make their shahada, and get themselves back on the wings. Then, they are told that, to be properly accepted after being with the "nonces", they have to assault a member of staff or another prisoner.
Young men with no strong sense of personal worth are incorporated into a powerful group who, against all evidence to the contrary, profess themselves to be the most oppressed group of people in the prison estate and the wider country, feeding a victim mentality which can lead to these young men becoming very dangerous, accepting no moral prerogative beyond that laid down for them by the group. Their morality is a mix of violent criminality and religious extremism fed by particular hadiths and fatwas, some of the latter declared by self-appointed teachers within the prisoner population.
Now, quite often, when a prisoner moves to another prison outside of the High Security Estate, he will quickly rediscover his non-Muslim roots and avoid all reference to their past, and they will truly be delighted to be out of the madness. Others will be moved and remain Muslim, perhaps having found a faith that gives them a discipline they need but learn to move away from the very warped version of it fed to them when they first converted. Others will move and remain angry, belligerent and violent. Others will move and be quiet but manipulative, continuing to follow the doctrine they were fed.
Trust me - Prevent is a costly waste of time, effort and money - it is about as effective as the Sex Offender Treatment Programme that so many resouces have been poured into, and does not work.
Most people look at prisons and think that Muslim gangs are just a issue for black prisoners, they are wrong and ignore the fact that the vast majority of Afro-Caribbean prisoners who go to prison for long sentences are of a Christian background, but convert quite quickly (sometimes for a sense of identity, sometimes for political reasons, sometimes under pressure). More and more prisoners of White British backgrounds are also converting, for similar reasons and a significant minority of these are becoming radicalised. Whilst lots will eventually move on and leave prison and forget their choices in prison, some will hold onto them and bring a lot of violent attitudes into our communities and onto our streets.
Yesterday, I visited the scene of the bombing, only being allowed as close as the police cordon near Chetham's School, and saw the casual nature of police officers holding semi-automatic rifles. I went to the shrine in St. Ann's Square which, while surrounded by film crews and edging towards the mawkish, still had the capacity to move. Seeing young people in leg bandages from the night make their respects is truly affecting. People were constantly asking "How could anybody target children?"
Well gentlemen, I think the answer, in an admittedly different setting for the killer, lies in much that I have observed from the many years I spent working in the High Security Estate: he could target children because they counted as nothing compared to the rigid sense of morality that he had been fed.
The other thing that bothered me last night, as I stood in St. Ann's Square, was that none of the journalists are actually asking the right questions, and that makes me bloody angry. The politicians are not willing to deal with issues and, as I found with those at the top in the Prison Service (or NOMS, as it was called for a time), refuse to listen to those who try to tell them what is happening as it does not fit into their political world-view, and then run around asking themselves how to prevent radicalisation and the murder of the innocent.

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10168/incident-manchester?page=20#ixzz4iHFpaYaA

I can't stand referendums, but make sure you vote in this one.

So people are out voting in the most significant referendum in 40 years: whether we stay a member of the European Union, or whether we go it alone.
I voted earlier today and the turnout had not been particularly high - only thirty people in 2 1/2 hours. I think that things have become busier though as the day has gone on. I have been underwhelmed by the campaign, which has only seemed to warm up in the past ten days.
The horrific murder of  Jo Cox, MP for Batley and Spen, caused a terrible break in the debate and seemed to bring a pause and much-needed reflection amongst campaigners. Sadly, some of the nastiness has not been long in returning to the world of social media and the language of "traitor" and "fascist"has quickly returned.
Whatever your view on leaving or remaining, Nigel Farage's standing in front of a banner purporting to warn against the large number of migrants breathlessly rushing our shores, which actually recorded  the horror of Syrians fleeing slaughter, was a real low.
So, vote. Whatever the result, still love each other.
If you are not sure what to do, then stick with the status quo: massive upheavals should never be due to uncertainties.

Camille Paglia throws down a gauntlet.

I am no fan of Ms Paglia, and do not endorse her views, but she always approaches the politics of feminism from a radical and unique perspective. This latest article is no different:
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/07/camille_paglia_feminists_have_abortion_wrong_trump_and_hillary_miscues_highlight_a_frozen_national_debate/
I disgree with her views on abortion, but am fascinated by how her mind works.

Yes, Christians in the Middle East face genocide, so call it that.

Today, I was watching the BBC news with two guest newspaper reviewers. They discussed a report suggesting that IS were commiting genocide against Christians. The two reviewers expressed discomfort with the idea that Christians were getting a special me tion and said that IS were "equal opportunity oppressors" They also said that genocide was an inappropriate term.
For Heaven's sake, BBC paper reviewers, yes, IS are slaughtering all kinds of groups, but the targeting of the ancient Christian communities in Iraq and Syria is genocide, as it is targeting an ancient ethnic group for destruction - what will be left of the ancient Assyrian civilisation when IS are finished? Genocide is not just the slaughter of a people, it is the attempt to wipe out evidence of their history and existence, so look at the destruction of the ancient shrines, the tomb of Jonah in Iraq, the destruction of the relics in Mosul, the attacks on Palmyra, the destruction of the oldest monasteries of Christianity as well as all Churches that come into their path.
They are trying to wipe out all signs of the ancient Christians of the Middle East and create a Year Zero. That is the very essence of genocide.
So a couple of BBC reviewers say they "feel uncomfortable" when the Christians are singled out for special mention and that genocide is an inappropriate word. Well boo-f#@king-hoo, you self-satisfied liberal softies; I suggest you use your superior intellect to do some study rather than confirming your preconceptions through chatting with your colleagues over a glass of Sancerre, spa water or a skinny soya latte.

Tyson Fury and the hypocritical reaction to him.

Muhammed Ali professed some vile racist views, which he has never totally withdrawn, and he is described, because of his sporting prowess, as "The Greatest."
 Mike Tyson is a convicted rapist, who we laud for his one man show and love his cameo appearances in films, and, because of his sporting prowess, he is seen as the greatest since Ali.
We put it down to their difficult backgrounds, upbringing and the racism they have faced
Tyson Fury holds three of the Heavyweight belts; he has said some illiberal things and so a petition is demanding he not be able to be on the Sports Personality of The Year shortlist. Important politicians have weighed in as well to make the same demand.
He isn't racist or a rapist.
Apparently, being from an difficult background and facing prejudice doesn't count if you are Traveller.
I don't agree with what he said, but I am sick of the bloody hypocrisy. If you don't like him, don't vote for him to be Sports' Personality of the year.

Thank you for the prayers.

My sister, Paula, is npw cancer-free. Thank you all so much for your prayers.
I didn't have much heart for blogging.

Prayers please.

Would you please keep my sister, Paula, in your prayers, as she has just been diagnosed with lung cancer and will be having most of one lung removed in the New Year. After this, they will decide what next steps may be necessary.
Please also keep her husband, Stuart, and daughter, Becky, in your prayers, in what is a very difficult time for everyone, not least my mother, who has already buried three of her children.
Please offer Mass, light a candle, pray a decade of the Rosary, ask for the intercession of St. Peregrine, or whatever else you feel may help.
Thank you.

The Tuam septic tank story continues to crumble.

Of some interest, I hope, to those who have been baffled by the whole "Nuns and septic tank story":
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/kathyschiffer/2014/06/associated-press-apologizes-for-its-coverage-of-the-irish-orphanage-story/#
This has never been true, will the major press sites now retract their claims and will all those people who have made dishonest hay out of this admit they have, at the very least, jumped the gun a bit?
The interesting part reads:

DUBLIN (AP) — In stories published June 3 and June 8 about young children buried in unmarked graves after dying at a former Irish orphanage for the children of unwed mothers, The Associated Press incorrectly reported that the children had not received Roman Catholic baptisms; documents show that many children at the orphanage were baptized. The AP also incorrectly reported that Catholic teaching at the time was to deny baptism and Christian burial to the children of unwed mothers; although that may have occurred in practice at times it was not church teaching. In addition, in the June 3 story, the AP quoted a researcher who said she believed that most of the remains of children who died there were interred in a disused septic tank; the researcher has since clarified that without excavation and forensic analysis it is impossible to know how many sets of remains the tank contains, if any. The June 3 story also contained an incorrect reference to the year that the orphanage opened; it was 1925, not 1926.

The true story continues to emerge.....

Another response to the "Babies in Septic Tank" story. This whole sorry saga and the lack of any sort of media standards in reporting it is shameful, if unsurprising.

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-tuam-tank-another-myth-about-evil-ireland/15140#.U5lX3Ja9LCR

The Nuns, the children's home and the septic tank.

Across the world, aided by social media, a story has been hitting the headlines and been hyped in the most bizarre and unbelievable ways.
If you believe what is being said, 796 babies' bodies were buried in a septic tank in the grounds of a home for unmarried mothers by the Bon Secours sister who ran the home in Tuam, County Galway, Eire, between 1925 and 1961. You will also believe that these children's deaths are suspicious.
I agree that it is appalling the way that unmarried mothers were treated and the terrible ways in which their children were treated by the wider community, let alone within homes, is a deep shame. Does this mean we are to believe that these nuns were a group of mass murderers?
I ask it as starkly as that because I have been fairly stunned by what I have read - one person asked me whether I would be changing the Catholic part of my moniker in the light of "the burial in a septic tank without Christian ceremony of 796 children of unmarried mothers who died of neglect while supposedly in the care of the Catholic Church in Ireland." This was the first I had heard of this story and I declined to comment without more knowledge.
I then saw a comment of Facebook by someone saying he would "punch a nun in the face" if he saw one due to this story and then, what has lead me to post today, is that a respected Cornish politician tweeted the headline "Nuns and mass murder, still getting my head around this crime against humanity".
Because of this, I finally joined twitter today and tweeted her the foregoing article by a respected journalist which has been in the public domain for a few days but seems not to have stemmed the tide of hyperbole, disinformation and hysteria. It makes clear that the bodies of 796 babies were not found in a septic tank, it reveals that the deaths were all registered by the home - which is how the figure of 796 was reached, due to the death certificates issued - and that as shocking as the number of deaths is, it was not so unexpected in a crowded home in the west of Ireland at that time. It is an awful and depressing tale, but it is not Rwanda and is not just to those who have worked to make sure that the children are remembered.
I urge others to read it, share it, tweet it, explain it - this is not a defence of the way that we treated umarried mothers and their children, it is a plea for truth and request that we stop buying into media inspired hysteria.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/tuam-mother-and-baby-home-the-trouble-with-the-septic-tank-story-1.1823393

Stockport Council Elections, 22nd May 2014

So, tomorrow is Local and Eurpean election day, and I usually give an overview and make predictions for Stockport council. So, late in the day, here we go:

After the last elections in 2012, the Liberal Democrat group remain in minority control with 29 councillors out of 63 - they maintain control due to the policy of the three-member Heald Green Independent Ratepayers Group to support the largest party. Keen-eyed observers will notice that the Liberal Democrats had only 28 councillors after the last round of elections but have been strengthened by the defection to them of Councillor Pat McAuley, who was elected for Labour in Manor in 2011 but who quickly left the group to sit as a People Matter councillor. His defection was not too surprising as he supported the present Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire, in her re-election bid in 2012 (see below).

The last time these seats were fought was 2010, at the same time as the General Election, so with a significantly larger turnout than normal. As ever, given the fact that there are three councillors in each seat, we can take the 2011 and 2012 results as a guide.

The Liberal Democrats are defending 12 seats from 2010, Labour are defending 5 seats, the Conservatives 3 and the Heald Green Independent Ratepayers defend their 1 seat.

In 2010, the Liberal Democrats took 40.8%% of the vote across the borough, Conservatives took 30.3%, Labour took 22.1%, Independent R/P 2.4%, BNP 2.3%, Green 1.6%, UKIP 0.3% and Independents 0.2%.

Last year, Labour took 33.4%, Conservative, 25.3%, Lib Dems 31.0%, Ind R/P 3.0%, UKIP 3.2%, Green 2.0%, BNP 1.8% and Independents& Liberal Party 0.2%.

The Lib Dems won 10 wards last time, Labour won 8, Conservatives 2 and Ind R/P 1.

If Labour simply holds its own after last year, they will gain 3 seats (2 from Lib Dem and 1 from the Conservatives), the Lib Dems will lose 2 (both to Labour) and the Conservatives will lose 1.

However, as ever, things are never that simple and with the European Parliamentary (EP) elections occurring on the same day (hence the delay of the local elections by a fortnight) with UKIP having a strong showing in the polls for the EP elections, will that have a knock-on effect locally - or will it serve the major parties who are fighting hard with more established election teams and who might get their vote out better for the EP elections? Local issues and local personalities will effect each ward battle and there will be surprises, as ever. Democracy is a wonderful thing and, when it a local election, differential turnout is crucial - those who can target their supporters and get them to the polls (or postbox) will win the day.

UKIP have 16 candidates up this year, failing to nominate in Stepping Hill ward and the old Lancashire wards of Heatons North, Heatons South, North Reddish and South Reddish.

As with all of my overviews and predictions, I will look at the seats I believe are in play and I invite views on the outcome of the local elections in each or all of them.

Labour target seats:

Davenport and Cale Green

This is an interesting ward which had swung heavily to the Liberal Democrats in the years since the boundary changes and all out elections in 2004. It has had a significant Conservative vote from the Davenport end of the ward which been somewhat squeezed over the years. Cale Green is a much more working class area with a traditional Labour vote that had moved significantly to the Liberal Democrats. In 2004 with the creation of the present ward, all three Labour Councillors who had represented the old Davenport seat were defeated by the Lib Dem councillors of the old Cale Green seat. Two of the Liberal Democrat Councillors, Roy Driver and David White, defected to Labour over Coalition policies, but neither chose to defend the seat with Cllr White standing down this year.
In 2011 and 2012, Labour gained the seat from the Liberal Democrats, with Ann Smith losing her seat last time.

In 2010, the Lib Dems managed to hold the seat quite comfortably, taking 39.4% of the vote to Labour's 32.7%, despite the bigger turnout which one would expect to favour Labour so it was quite a shock to see the scale of the turnaround in 2011 where there was a 19% swing from the Lib Dems to Labour between 2007 and 2011. The Lib Dem vote falling to 21.2% and the Labour vote rising to 54%. The Conservative vote was 15.7%, Green 8.3%.

The defections of Lib Dem councillors Roy Driver and David White to (eventually) Labour undoubtedly had an effect on the result but the Coalition government where the Liberal Democrats joined with the Conservatives nationally won't have gone down well with the voters of Cale Green, even without the unpopular decisions made by the national government last year. Benefit changes for the unemployed and those in rented accommodation have not been popular in this area and it'll be interesting to see if signs of economic recovery have reached the voters of this ward. David White is not defending his seat for Labour so this year sees the return of Ann Smith, who lost her seat in 2012, as the Liberal Democrat candidate (so, technically defending the seat) and Elise Wilson standing for Labour. For the Conservatives, experienced candidate Julie Wragg will be hoping to avoid repeating the heavy squeeze on the Tory vote experienced in 2012. Phil Shaw returns as the Green candidate for his fourth bite of the cherry in this ward, whilst UKIP is fielding Doreen Hopkins; UKIP last had a candidate here in 2007 when they came fifth with only 3.1% of the vote. They should poll better this time.

Ann Smith is a popular lady and she will put up a strong fight in what is an open seat this year, but I still feel that this is Labour's to lose. I will predict a fairly narrow Labour victory here, with UKIP's share of the vote perhaps playing a crucial role.

Labour Gain.

In 2010 (2012) the ward results were:

Liberal Democrat David White 2,453 39.4% (38.0%)
Labour Co-op Brian Hendley 2,032 32.7% (45.9%)
Conservative Beryl Charlesworth 1,321 21.2% (8.6%)
Green Phil Shaw 415 6.7% (6.3%)
(Liberal 1.1%)

Majority 421 6.7

Full Candidate List: Doreen Hopkins (UKIP), Phil Shaw (Green), Ann Smith (Lib Dem), Elise Wilson (Lab), Julie Wragg (Con).

Manor ward

Manor is on the edge of the political dividing line of Stockport, sandwiched between normally Labour voting North and Central Stockport and the normally Lib Dem redoubts of Eastern and Southern Stockport (Bredbury, Offerton, Stepping Hill, Marple, etc) and it is in this sort of seat that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are fighting toe-to-toe.

The Liberal Democrats were safely ensconced in this ward for many years with the nearest they came to losing a seat being in the all-out elections of 2004 when Labour's Brigitte Lechner came within 97 votes of taking the last seat from the Lib Dems' David Robert-Jones, comfortably out-polling the other Labour candidates by 500 votes. She was subsequently Labour's candidate in the 2006/7/8 campaigns but was swimming against the tide of an unpopular Labour government and a popular Lib Dem Council.

In 2010, the Lib Dems still managed a comfortable 575 (9%) majority over Labour on the increased General Election turnout.

This changed in 2011's local elections when Patrick McAuley gained for Labour with their vote rising by 12% since 2010 whilst the Lib Dem vote only fell by 4.9% since 2010. There seems to have been some tactical voting by Conservatives to save the Lib Dem councillor but disillusionment as I have described above will have effected the voters. There was a 12.515% swing from the LDs to Labour between 2007 and 2011, the Lib Dem vote falling 7.87% and the Labour vote rising by 17.16%. The Con vote rose by 0.72%, the BNP vote fell by 7.01% and the Independent by 3.1%.

As I noted above, Councillor McAuley has now joined the Liberal Democrats as I had predicted he would in 2012. The results last time showed, on a reduced turnout, the Labour vote share (not votes cast) remaining remarkably steady at 43.6% (just 0.4% down on 2011) but a formidable campaign by sitting Councillor Sue Derbyshire saw the Liberal Democrat vote share rise by 8% for her to hold onto her seat from Labour's Walter Barrett by a nerve-jangling 24 votes. A drop in the Conservative vote share of 7.5% will surely count for much of this and it was a masterfully executed squeeze by the Liberal Democrats.

Councillor Daniel Hawthorne is defending his seat this year, having first been elected in the 2010 election. Returning as Labour candidate, after losing so narrowly last time, is Walter Barrett, who will hope to be a tad luckier this year. For the Conservatives, Beverley Oliver will hope to avoid the heavy squeeze that was suffered in 2012 but I think she will be struggling, not least because of the appearance of a UKIP candidate, in the shape of John Kelly. There is no ward history for UKIP so it is all a bit up in the air as to how they will do. One candidate who will be unhappy with UKIP's appearance will be Duncan Warner of the BNP who has stood at every election since 2004 (when he snatched second place from the Tories); Mr Warner's vote share has fallen since 2010 and many of his supporters will have been disillusioned Labour voters. BNP's recent travails and the appearance of a more respectable form of protest in UKIP, added to the squeeze coming from the two front-runners, could lead to Mr Warner's worst result (one would be devastated if this proved to be true.....).
I am not sure how to call this one, it is going to be a close run one again I would guess, and I am tempted to make a prediction but...........

Too close to call.

2010 (2012)

Liberal Democrat Daniel Hawthorne 2,605 40.9% (44.3%)
Labour Paul Moss 2,030 31.9% (43.6%)
Conservative Alex Raisbeck 1,269 19.9% (7.4%)
BNP Duncan Warner 464 13.8 (7.3%)

Majority 575 9.0%

Full Candidate List: Walter Barrett (Lab), Daniel Hawthorne (Lib Dem), John Kelly (UKIP), Beverley Oliver (Con), Duncan Warner (BNP).

Offerton

Offerton is in the Hazel Grove constituency, located in the centre of Stockport borough, between Marple, Bredbury and Manor wards.

Offerton offered the big news of the 2012 elections, when the Liberal Democrat Leader of the Council, Councillor Dave Goddard, was beaten by Labour's Laura Booth after a fairly stormy campaign. This year, due to the decision of sitting councillor John Smith (elected as Liberal Democrat but defected to the Conservatives) to retire, it is likely to be a straight fight again between returning Lib Dem Mr Goddard and Labour's Charlie Stewart. Labour took the seat last time with a nail-bitingly close majority of 45, but proving that they can win here will mean that the seat is likely to be heavily-targeted again by Labour. In 2010, the Liberal Democrat candidate won comfortably with 49% of the vote, the Conservatives took 23.7%, Labour 18.5% and the BNP 8.8%.

Labour has risen from the political grave in this ward (it is hard to believe that they came fourth behind the BNP in 2008 with less than 10% of the vote) and it will be the aim of Mr Goddard to squeeze the Conservative vote and, as with the other parties, discourage Liberal Democrat voters from toying with a vote for UKIP as a form of national protest. This may have been helped by the suspension by the national party of returning UKIP candidate, Harry Perry, who proves yet again that some people shouldn't be allowed near a twitter account. For the Conservatives, Bill Law will be hoping to build up the party's vote share and avoid being squeezed out of the race. It would be interesting to know how Councillor Smith might have fared if he had chosen to defend the seat as a Tory candidate but I suspect he would have been pushed out by Labour and the Lib Dems.

As mentioned already, UKIP's Harry Perry returns for a third shot at the seat, but his 10% of the vote is unlikely to rise much due to the two-way battle and his own problems with his party. Mind you, voters make a habit of voting in maverick ways, so who knows?

Last year, Laura Booth had a history in the seat and was standing for the third time, this may serve to put Labour's candidate, Charlie Stewart, at a disadvantage but he has been a public campaigner so should be fairly well known. Mr Goddard has a very high-profile, which can work for or against a person.

I am sure Labour and the Liberal Democrats will fight hard here and it is a very tough one to call, but with Labour proving it can win and thus showing those who have voted tactically for the Liberal Democrat's in the past that a Labour vote is not a wasted one, Labour's vote might rise. Having said that, the Liberal Democrats will be targeting the Conservative vote very hard. This could be very close again and I will not make a prediction.

Too close to call.


2010 (2012)
Liberal Democrat John Smith 3,173 49.0% (35.6%)
Conservative Julie Wragg 1,536 23.7% (18.1%)
Labour Laura Booth 1,199 18.5% (36.8%)
BNP Stephen Maher 573 8.8% ( - )
(UKIP 9.5%%)
Majority 1,637 25.3% (1.2%)

Full Candidate List: Charlie Stewart (Lab), Dave Goddard (Lib Dem), Harry Perry (UKIP), Bill Law (Con).

Heatons North

This covers what was formerly a very safe Conservative seat taking in Heaton Moor and parts of Heaton Mersey. Labour only began to gain the seat (or its predecessor seat of Heaton Moor) in 1994 when the then Conservative government was limping from crisis to crisis. From the year 2000, the Conservatives started to win the seat back and, by 2004, the seat was safely Conservative again and remained so even with the high turnout in the General Election when Councillor O'Neill held on by 284 votes (3.9%) and this was partly due to the unusually high vote for the Lib Dems, possibly boosted by the 7% student population voting in favour of the 'no student loans' pledge of the Lib Dem manifesto. This is one of the few seats in Stockport where the battle is directly between Labour and the Conservatives with the Lib Dems as also-rans. This was one of the crucial factors with the collapse of the GE Lib Dem vote to normally low figures and the huge rise in the Labour vote. In 2012, Labour's David Sedgwick comfortably gained the ward from the Conservatives with a 360 majority, confirming the swing back to Labour in this ward since 2010.

The candidate hoping to make it a hat-trick of victories for Labour in this ward is John Taylor, who will be facing Rosalind Lloyd for the Conservatives after the retirement of Anthony O'Neill of a fairly longstanding family of Conservative councillors and aldermen. I wonder if Ms Lloyd is related to the former Conservative councillor and Councillor leader, John Lloyd, who used to represent this area? Actually, I think she is related to Councillor Syd Lloyd in Bredbury Green and Romiley.

For the Greens, we see the return of Janet Cuff, who has stood regularly in this ward (and in the old Heaton Moor ward), with a couple of years off here and there. Her best result was 10.2% in 2004 and she obviously has some following.
This is one of the wards where there is no UKIP candidate.

Labour Gain.

2008 (2012)
Conservative Les Jones 2,069 52.9 (38.9%)
Labour Margaret Pollard 1,000 25.6 (47.9%)
Liberal Democrat Kevin Dowling 358 9.1 (4.1%)
Green Janet Cuff 336 8.6 (9.1%)
UKIP Gerald Price 150 3.8 ( - )
Majority 1,069 27.3

Full Candidate List: Janet Cuff (Green), Rosalind Lloyd (Con), Jenny Humphreys (Lib Dem), John Taylor (Lab).

Bredbury and Woodley

Former Davenport and Cale Green Lib Dem councillor Roy Driver (defected back to Labour, see above), came remarkably close to winning this ward in 2012 and he is back again to take the battle to his former Liberal Democrat colleague, defending Councillor Chris Gordon.

From the 2008 nadir for Labour of 9.5%, Mr Driver gained 35.6% of the vote last time and the Liberal Democrat's Christine Corris only held on by 181 votes. The long-time Liberal Democrat councillor, Stella Humphries, had retired so her personal vote will have gone but Labour had made solid progress in this seat in 2009 and this year should be very interesting. The question is whether the Conservatives can bounce back from their very low 14.5% in 2012 or will they continue to be squeezed in a tightening two-horse race between Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Conservative candidate Sue Howard has a tough fight on her hands.

UKIP are fielding a candidate this time with Richard Ellis flying their flag, one can only guess at the effect this will have as they have not had a candidate in this ward before. It is possible that it may boost turnout amongst those who wish to make a positive vote for the party and who might normally stay at home. Who they will take votes from is difficult to tell, although a recent study continues to show that most votes tend to come from the Conservatives. The BNP again field Andy Webster, who polled 8.7% of the vote in 2012; I suspect his vote will fall this year.

Last year I said that if Mr Driver stood again, he would win this seat; now I am not quite so confident as Mr Gordon has been around for a lot of years and will have a strong personal vote. Political circumstances change and it'll be interesting to see how UKIP's entrance into the race plays out. If anybody could gain this seat for Labour, it is Mr Driver but it'll be one tough battle. I expect that a lot of party workers will be working this ward very hard and the ground game will be important.

Too close to call.

2010 (2012):
Liberal Democrat Christopher Gordon 4,009 59.3% (41.2%%)
Conservative Rosalind Lloyd 1,723 25.5% (14.5%)
Labour Clifford Stanway 1,025 15.2% (35.6%)
(BNP 8.7%)
Majority 2,786 33.8% (5.6%)
Full Candidate List: Roy Driver (Lab), Richard Ellis (UKIP), Chris Gordon (Lib Dem), Sue Howard (Con), Andy Webster (BNP).

Conservative Target seats

Hazel Grove

This was a very close run battle last year and the Liberal Democrat's victory by 68 votes over the Conservatives was a sign of how much this seat has come into play over the last couple of election cycles. It had been a real shock when the Conservatives gained this formerly reliable Liberal Democrat ward in 2011, and much of this can be attributed to Labour's rising vote share due to a tactical unwind because of the national Coalition. Last time, the Conservatives, on a smaller turnout, managed to increase their share of the vote but with the Labour share dropping slightly and a much more prepared Lib Dem campaign, the Lib Dems managed to hold on.

This year, the three main parties are joined by UKIP's Tony Moore; the party last stood a candidate in the ward in 2011 and achieved 6.7% of the vote. Will it do much better this time? The make up of the ward suggests not, but we shall see. Also joining the fray is the Green Party's Rob Turner, who will doubtless be not receiving a warm welcome from defending Lib Dem councillor, Stuart Corris.

Councillor Corris has been around a long time and I would guess this is the toughest bettle he has fought. The Conservatives are certainly re-invigorated in this ward and they have always managed to maintain a solid share of the vote. The Tories' 2011 victor, William Wragg, is their PPC for the constituency and he would surely like to gain a second seat here.

The big questions - will UKIP's entrance cause damage to the Conservative hopes this year; will Labour still manage a solid high teen's share of the vote thus undermining Mr Corris's hopes; will the Greens make any impact on the race?

Undoutedly a key marginal in the battle for control of the council, and of the Tory hopes of re-establishing themselve as a major party of local government in Stockport, this will be a really testing battle for Cllr Corris. It is possible that the anger with the Coalition has dissipated somewhat and Labour voters may again be tempted to vote tactically to keep the Conservatives out, but it is not a certainty and where the UKIP vote comes from will be the main issue, I suspect.

The Conservatives are again fielding Oliver Johnstone, who came so close last year, and that should help them present a familiar face to the electorate.

On balance, and because of UKIP being more likely to take Tory votes, especially on a EP election day, I predict a Liberal Democrat hold here and Councillor Corris will heave a huge sigh of relief, but it should still be relatively close.

Lib Dem hold (just).


2010 (2012):

Stuart Corris LD 3,777 51.3% (42.1%)
William Wragg C 2,697 36.7% (40.4%%)
Karen Vickers Lab 884 12.0% (17.5%)

Maj: 1,080 14.6% (1.7%)

Full Candidate List: Stuart Corris (Lib Dem), Oliver Johnstone (Con), Janet Elizabeth Glover (Lab), Tony Moore (UKIP), Rob Turner (Green).

Bredbury Green and Romiley

This is a classic Lib Dem/Con marginal, and has often been won by very small majorities since 2006. In 2012. I thought that the Tories would grab this ward, following their success in 2011 but, as with other results, the collapse in their post-Budget support only began to show close to the election and the Liberals comfortably held on in 2012. Surprisingly, Labour's votes share, which had been at its highest in many a year in 2011 at 20.3%, actually rose slightly to 20.4%, so it wasn't a case of Labour voters returning to tactical anti-Tory voting. With a much reduced turnout, I would surmise that the Liberal Democrats were much better at the GOTV operation and many Tories stayed at home.

Nonetheless, going from a 658 majority in 2011 to a 262 loss in 2012 was a heck turnaround. The Conservatives have certainly targeted this ward and, as with Hazel Grove, really need to be using this ward as a base to rebuild their party machine and increase the size of their group on the Council.

Lib Dem candidate Councillor Mags Kirkham is completing her first term, having just snatched the ward on a general election turnout in 2010 from Cllr Syd Lloyd (regained a seat in 2011), and will be determined to continue the success of last year. With the Conservatives not as toxic as they were a couple of years ago, she will be aiming to squeeze the Labour vote to win.

For the Conservatives, Sally Bennett returns as candidate and, with the experience of last time, will doubtless have a better GOTV plan. She has a real chance here and will doubtless be fairly confident in an area which has swung from Liberal Democrat to Conservative (normally in the shape of Syd Lloyd) over the electoral cycles.

Keen to avoid being squeezed, Labour's Brian Wild will be looking to again advance the party's vote share to closer to 25%, but I think he will have a tough job on his hands.

The BNP again field Tony Dean, who is likely to suffer at the presence of another anti-politics candidate in the shape of UKIP's Brian Stanyer. I am interested to see how UKIP do here as there is no history to help us speculate.

This will be a close call but I will just give it to the Liberal Democrats.

Lib Dem hold.


2010 (2012):

Mags Kirkham LD 3,123 44.3% (41.1%)
Syd Lloyd C 2979 42.3% (34.4%)
David Sedgwick Lab 945 13.4% (20.4%)
(BNP 4.1%)

Full Candidate List: Sally Bennett (Con), Tony Dean (BNP), Mags Kirkham (Lib Dem), Brian Stanyer (UKIP), Brian Wild (Lab).

Cheadle and Gatley

Cheadle and Gatley was a disappointment for the Conservatives in 2012, with the loss of Mick Jones's seat to the Liberal Democrat candidate, Keith Holloway. The ward now has three Liberal Democrat councillors and, with the defending candidate this year being Councillor Iain Roberts, I really don't see much changing for the Tories.

As long as the Liberal Democrats can keep over 40% of the vote, they seem safe to hold on here and they will be looking to do considerably better than that and will doubtless be looking at the Labour vote which has grown to over 20% in the last two electoral cycles. In the past, Labour voters have lent their support to the Liberal Democrats to keep the Tories out, but that has become less of a temptation since the formation of the Coalition government. For Labour, long-time candidate Colin Owen will certainly be aiming to hold onto and, if possible, continue to improve the vote share, but it is likely to be difficult although, given his high visibility as a regular candidate (every election since 2004), he will have some confidence.

For the Conservatives, Graham Haslam is facing an uphill battle, not helped by the appearance of a UKIP candidate. To win here, the Conservatives would normally need to be achieving a 40%+ vote share, and this is unlikely as the larger number of candidates is likely to effect the three major parties.

UKIP have Graham Bradbury standing for them and, with the EP elections on the same day, will hope to pick up a decent vote share. I would think this is not the kind of ward where UKIP would do too well, but they don't have to do brilliantly to have an effect on the wider result.

Also likely to be a bit of a spoiler, Natasha Brooks for the Green Party is also hoping to make her mark. Whether her presence damages the Liberal Democrats or Labour more than others remains to be seen, but I can't see her doing too well. The last time a candidate stod in this area was in 2002, under the old boundaries, and he only managed to accrue 152 votes (3.6%).
I cannot see Councillor Roberts losing here.

Lib Dem hold

2008 (2011):

Iain Roberts LD 4332 53.2% (42.5%)
Adam Calmonson Con 2964 36.4% (37.1%)
Colin Owen Lab 848 10.4% (20.4%)

Full Candidate List: Graham Bradbury (UKIP), Natasha Brooks (Green),Graham Haslam (Con), Colin Owen (Lab), Iain Roberts (Lib Dem).

So - my predictions?

Labour to gain:

Davenport & Cale Green
Heatons North

Too close to call between Labour and the Liberal Democrats:

Bredbury and Woodley
Manor
Offerton

Ones to watch between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats:

Bredbury Green and Romiley
Cheadle and Gatley
Hazel Grove