Penwith District Council was an authorithy which covered the "top of the foot" of the peninsula. Formed on April 1st 1974 from a merger of the boroughs of Penzance and St Ives, the urban district of St Just and the Rural District of West Penwith. It was dissolved with the creation of the Unitary Authority of Cornwall Council on 1st April, 2009.
Gulval and Heamor
Gulval and Heamor are villages incorporated into the town of Penzance, Heamor retains its position as a Civil Parish.
A crowded field in 2009 (7 candidates) has been reduced to just three this year with Councillor Mario Fonk, who safely took this seat with 54.9% of the vote just facing challenges from the returning Pam Yeates of the Conservatives and Rose Smith of UKIP.
As the missing candidates are mainly of the cnetre and left, it is unlikely that their voters will turn out fot the Tories or UKIP (though a few might) so I cannot see beyond a hold for Cllr Fonk here. The interesting battle will be for second place.
Prediction: Lib Dem hold
Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth
Containing the three civil parishes of the title, seven candidates are chancing their arm this time. The sitting councillor, Conservative Ray Tovey, sadly passed away from a brain tumour in Septemebr of last year. Having won by only 65 votes from Independent candidate Sheila Furneaux, it was perhaps not a surprise that she won the subsequent byelection just 4 months ago. More surprising is that she won it by only 4 votes from another Independent, Michael Roberts, in the absence of a Conservative candidate.
Councillor Furneaux has obviously decided that 4 months in County Hall is enough and had no confidence of holding the seat so is not standing this time.
Lionel Pascoe is standing for the Conservatives and would probably the favourite here. An Anthony Pascoe has won here before and, given the penchant for going by middle names rather than first ones in Cornwall, it may be the same man.
Mr Roberts will be confident of his chances at this election with Councillor Furneaux now retired from the field but with the Liberal Democrats not too far behind in the byelection, their candidate, Yvonne Bates will be aiming to re-establish the party as main challengers.
For UKIP, Peter Channon will want to see how the UKIP surge is working in this area and his presence will not be welcomes by Mr Pascoe.
Labour didn't do well (to say the least) in 2009 but will feel some confidence in the vote share they received at the by election (in a low poll), so Michael Smith will be looking to move up the pecking order here, although the vote share will matter more.
Theresa Byrne is standing for the Greens but they don't really have too much hope here.
Making up the field is St Erth parish councillorAngelo Spencer-Smith as a second Independent candidate. A Positioning and Differentiation Strategist (I just looked it up and I am now more confused by jargon than ever), Mr Spencer-Smith is a volunteer for ShelterBox, which provides emergency shelter and life-saving supplies for people affected by disasters.
Prediction: Conservative hold (Gain from by election).
Hayle North
Some boundary changes here but not too major. Councillor John Pollard is defending his seat from 2009 and, given his good majority, he would appear to be safe enough. The conservatives are not running a candidate which seems strange but, given that Mr Pollard is Portfolio Holder for Localism, Sustainability and Devolution in the County Hall coaliton, maybe they are stepping aside. Less unstandable is the absence of a Liberal Democrat in ward they have won in the past.
UKIP's Lynda Chidell, a dedicated bridge player will have a strategy to pick up Tory votes and other disgruntled votes. Cllr Pollard's webpage, which mixes old and new news, has a message of support from the UKIP candidate for Hayle South, he may want to change that.
Labour's Tony Phillips (who stood in the old Hayle South last time) will want to lift Labour from its 2009 nadir and, with no other party vying for the centre-left vote, he will be looking to re-establish Labour as a force in this area.
Prediction: Independent hold
Hayle South
The field of seven last time in this division has been reduced to four this. Defending his seat is a town councillor and former town mayor, John Coombe. Councillor Coombe easily won last time ahead of another Independent candidate, John Bennett, but only with a modest 36.5% of the vote.
The Tories are fielding no candidate and, given the disaster last time (last and 4.4%), neither are the Liberal Democrats.
Standing as a second Independent this year is town councillor and current deputy mayor, Graham Coad. A retired policeman of 33 years experience, Mr Coad will hope to claim the votes of Mr Bennett and take the votes of the unrepresented Tory voters.
UKIP's candidate is town councillor Clive Polkinghorne, a campaigner for the Harbour. He will have a a good base from last time when UKIP managed 14% in the old division. He will have some confidence here is the vote splits again and he picks up the Tory votes.
For Labour, town councillor Anne-Marie Vance is carrying the flag. A local campaigner, she will be looking to avoid last place and, given that she is the only obvious centre-left candidate, she may do quite well.
Prediction: Independent Coombe, but with some reservations.
Lelant and Carbis Bay
Part of St Ives council, Lelant and Carbis Bay Division was taken my Councillor Liz Penhaligon in 2009. A Conservative former district councillor, she had to face only an Independent (Graham Webster) and the Green Party last time.
Things are less clearcut this time as there are seven candidates in the race.
Not fielding a candidate in 2009, last time's Independent candidate, Graham Webster, is standing in the Labour Party's interest. Mr Webster has been a Labour candidate in the past and, somewhat like the situation at the other end of the county in Gunnislake and Calstock, it can be said that Labour 'sort of' ran in 2009. Stationer Mr Webster will have hope that Labour can do well here as in a byelection in 2001, the party managed to receive 287 votes in straight battle with the Greens (see below) and showed that it could do well against a Green candidate. Labour's candidate then, Terry Murray, is standing in St Ives East this time.
For the Greens, who were third last time, town councillor Maxine Armstrong, winner of the byelection with a very decent 372 votes, is hoping to repeat her success. It may be difficult as the turnout will be higher than the byelection, Tories may have voted for her to keep Labour out (and I suppose some might have done the same for Labour to keep the Greens out, but less likely).
For the Liberal Democrats, Howard Hollingsbee is hoping to re-establish his party as the main challenger but I feel he might find himself struggling in the crowded field on the left. Mr Hollingsbee's tweets suggest he is rather a disenchanted bunny with his party's leadership in Westminster.
For UKIP, Sandy Martin puts up a challenge on Cllr Penhaligon's right flank which may cause her some concern; if UKIP can get a vote in the high teens, with polling suggesting that the vote comes very heavily from Tory supporters, then the sitting councillor could be in some lumber.
For the Independent cause (whatever that happens to be), Richard Glanville is standing. I can find nothing about him but he may be an interesting spoiler.
Prediction: Conservative hold, I think.
Saint Ives
St Ives is a seaside town, civil parish and port; the town lies north of Penzance and west of Camborne on the coast of the Celtic Sea. In former times it was commercially dependent on fishing. The decline in fishing, however, caused a shift in commercial emphasis and the town is now primarily a popular holiday resort, notably achieving the award 'Best UK Seaside Town' from the British Travel Awards in both 2010 and 2011. In 2001, the population was recorded as 11,165.
Boundary changes look to have made both the wards very marginal, as opposed to one fairly safe and one not safe at all.
St Ives East
Councillor Joan Symons is defending this division which will be slightly less safe that last time when she beat the Green candidate by 200 votes. Originally a district councillor, Cllr Symons has a long pedigree of representing this area.
Her main challenger this time is the Green's town councillor Tim Andrewes, who came within 24 votes of taking the old St Ives North division at the last elections. The Greens seem to be in the ascendancy again in this area and he will doubtless by very disappointed if he fails to win this time with both the admistration in County Hall and the national government unpopular.
For the Liberal Democrats, Madie Parkinson-Smith has the uneviable task of avoiding a Green squeeze and returning the Lib Dems to a winning position. I feel she will struggle with this.
UKIP's Roy Britten will look to ride the UKIP wave to Truro,and has a base of over 11% to work on, but I see him being more of a spoiler here who will be deeply worrying Cllr Symons.
Labour's candidate is former town councillor Terry Murray who has to face the same danger of a squeeze faced by Ms Parkinson-Smith. It would be a surprise if he was not able to rebuild Labour's voter base to some degree, but the more successful he is, the less chance for Mr Andrewes.
Morag Robertson is running as an Independent; a campaigner on parking issue (some parking spaces in St Ives sell for tens of thousands of pounds), Ms Robertson founded Parking Action St Ives (PASTI - you see what she did there?). With parking in the area being expensive for everyone, she may well receive a decent vote.
If the Greens can't win this year, they never will
Prediction: Green gain
St Ives West
In the old St Ives North division, Councillor Joan Tanner squeaked in with a majority of only 24 votes over the Green candidate. She only received 27.6% of the vote to win and wins the award for least popular candidate to win a seat in Cornwall in 2009. Her division should, theoretically be slightly safer this time, but I wouldn't expect that to save Cllr Tanner, formerly a district councillor, originally elected as an Independent.
Hopeful of victory this time is town councillor and current mayor, Ron Tully. He came within 200 votes of winning the St Ives South division last time and will probably have a slightly smaller majority this time. It will be a real blow for him and the Green Party if they cannot win - the last two times he stood in the district and county elections, he managed 26.3% of the vote - he needs to break that ceiling if he is to win.
For the Liberal Democrats, Lester Scott is running but he will be somewhat non-plussed by the appearance in the race of former Liberal Democrat district councillor, Andrew Mitchell, who is running as an Independent. It will be tough for Mr Scott as he will face a push for votes from the Greens and Mr Mitchell and he will be happy to hold a decent vote share.
For UKIP, a commited activist William Guppy returns to the fray, aiming to receive enough votes from unhappy Tories and others concerned about 'Europe' to push his way to the top of a potentially very split pack.
Labour's Malcolm Hurst will simply be hoping to build up the Labour vote and not be squeezed as they so tightly were in 2009.
Cllr Tanner is seeing her vote base increasingly cut from under her and will need all the local recognition she has to hold on.
Prediction: Green gain (the Tories could struggle to be second)
Marazion and Perranuthnoe
Marazion is a civil parish and town ,situated on the shore of Mount's Bay, two miles east of Penzance and one mile east of Long Rock. Marazion is a thriving tourist resort with an active community of artists who produce and sell paintings and pottery in the town's numerous art galleries. the 2001 census recorded a population of 1,466.
Perranuthnoe is a civil parish and a village,situated on the east side of Mount's Bay approximately one mile east of Marazion and four miles east of Penzance. The parish includes the villages of Perranuthnoe, Goldsithney, Perran Downs and part of Rosudgeon.
In 2009, the Conservative candidate, Sue Nicholas, won the division with a rather modest 34.6% of the vote over an Independent candidate, Jane Howells. Having been in field of 5 candidates then, she is only facing two challengers this time, from UKIP and the Green Party. Once again, the Liberal Democrats are failing to field a candidate in a seat where they should have a strong vote base.
UKIP have nominated Glyn Owen who must be confident of increasing the UKIP vote from last time (12.9%) and, in a narrow field, challenging for the Independent and Tory voters.
The Greens have put up Peter Williams, who runs an organic B&B in St Ives. He will hope to corral the Lib Dem vote and appeal to Independents.
Prediction: Conservative hold
St Just-in-Penwith
St Just is a town and civil parish that lies along the B3306 road which connects St Ives to the A30 road. The parish encompasses the town of St Just and the nearby settlements of Trewellard, Pendeen and Kelynack; it is bounded by the parishes of Morvah to the north-east, Sancreed and Madron to the east, St Buryan and Sennen to the south and by the sea in the west. The town of St Just is the most westerly town in mainland Britain and is situated approximately 8 miles west of Penzance along the A3071. St Just parish had a population of 4,690 in the 2001 census.
In 2009, Independent Chris Goninan was elected with a comfortable majority of 283 over the Liberal Democrat candidate and 51.4% of the vote. Not standing this time, he leaves the field open to five new candidates.
Once a Liberal Democrat division, their candidate will hope that the disappointing results last time might be reversed and town councillor and current mayor, Sue James, will have some confidence here.
Aiming to replace Councillor Goninan as an Independent is town councillor Kevin McFadden and, given a history of voting Independent in local elections, he should be Ms James's main challenger.
The Conservatives only managed to take 10.5% of the vote last time but, with an open seat, they will hope to do well here and their candidate, David Lenaghan, has a job to do.
Labour has selected Kirsty Pritchard in an area that has not been promising for them and, having achieved 15% in 2005 (they didn't put up a candidate last time), will hope to be able to get close to that vote.
For UKIP, local artist Adrian Guy Smith is standing. A 'spiritual ruralist', his artwork is pretty stunning, whether that will help in the election is somewhat more doubtful.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Ludgvan
Ludgvan is a civil parish and village 2 1/2 miles northeast of Penzance. The parish includes the villages of Ludgvan, Crowlas, Canon's Town and Long Rock. It is bounded by the parishes of Towednack and Lelant to the north, Madron and Penzance to the west, by St Erth, St Hilary and Marazion to the east and by the sea to the south. Morvah parish is also in the division.
Won in 2009 by Independent Councillor Irene Bailey, the seat is now an open one as she has stood down due to ill-health so the division has been vacant since last November.
Hoping to succeed Cllr Bailey is former district councillor who chaired the council, Roy Mann, who lost by 115 votes last time. Formerly an Independent county councillor, Mr Mann stood last time, as he does this, as a Conservative.
The Greens took third place last time and have selected Ian Flindall as their candidate who will hope, in the absence of another candidate form the left of the spectrum, to poll better than the 13.2% last time. With not Lib Dem candidate this time, he may well achieve a decent vote.
Returning for UKIP is psychologist Robert Smith, a near neighbour of Mr Mann. He was UKIP's candidate for Devon and Cornwall Police and Crime Commissioner coming a not disgraceful fifth with 8.3% of the vote. Mr Smith is the son-in-law of the late Labour Cabinet minister, Peter Shore, who was fervently anti-Common Market. His wife is standing in Newlyn and Mousehole and his mother-in-law is standing in Penzance Promenade.
I think he will be Mr Mann's main challenger and it should be interesting
Prediction: Conservative gain
St Buryan
The centre of this division, St Buryan is a civil parish and village, which is situated approximately five miles west of Penzance. St Buryan parish encompasses the villages of St. Buryan, Lamorna, and Crows-an-wra and shares boundaries with the parishes of Sancreed and St Just to the north, Sennen and St Levan to the west, with Paul to the east and by the sea in the south. There are 6 parishes in this division.
In 2009, Councillor Bill Maddern took this ward fairly comfortably over the Liberal Democrat candidate. A former district councillor, Cllr Maddern starts this race as the clear favourite who will have some concerns about his majority due to the presence of an Independent candidate.
On the face of it, the challenge from the Liberal Democrats is hampered by the good result that the Greens achieved last time when they received 20.2% of the vote and the Lib Dems' Frank Blewett will be hardly more pleased by the return of a Labour candidate. But he will hope that the Independent may help him by eating into Cllr Maddern's vote.
First time Independent candidate, Howard Bliss, runs the StBuryanVoter blog. Serving in the RAF as both a regular and reserve from 1975 to 2004, he and his wife run the Lower Treave Caravan and Camping Park. A critic of the local Liberal Demcrats for pushing through the 0% Council Tax rise, thus causing cuts to services, Mr Bliss is hoping to win over unhappy Lib Dems and Tories.
The Green Party's Peter Hardy can feel some confidence here as the Lib Dems are not popular nationally but he will have to put in a good campaign.
For Labour, regular candidate Juliet Eavis is standing. Labour have managed to have a decent vote in past elections but whether they are putting in much of a campaign here is the question, with more promising targets a few miles away in Penzance.
All in all, I can't see Cllr Maddern losing this.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Penzance
Penzance is a town, civil parish and port, the most westerly major town in Cornwall and is approximately 75 miles west of Plymouth and 300 miles. Situated in the shelter of Mount's Bay, the town faces south-east onto the English Channel, is bordered to the west by the fishing port of Newlyn, to the north by the civil parish of Madron and to the east by the civil parish of Ludgvan. In 2001, the census repported a population of 21,168.
The economy of Penzance has, like those of many Cornish communities, suffered from the decline of the traditional industries of fishing, mining and agriculture. Penzance now has a mixed economy consisting of light industrial, tourism and retail businesses. However, like the rest of Cornwall, housing remains comparatively expensive, wages low and unemployment high. House prices have risen 274% in 10 years, the fastest rise in the UK.The fishing port of Newlyn, which falls within the parish boundaries, provides some employment in the area, but has also been greatly affected by the decline in the fishing industry over the last 30 years. In the 2004 index of deprivation Penzance is listed as having 3 wards within the top 10% for employment deprivation, Penzance East (125th most deprived in England) Penzance West (200th most deprived in England), and Penzance Central (712th most deprived in England). 18-31% of households in the parish are described as "poor households". The Penzance East Ward also has one the highest unemployment rates in Cornwall, stated as 15.4%.
Penzance Central
Penzance and the environs had some remarkably close election in 2009, with victories on small vote shares. Penzance Central is a classic example of this with Liberal Democrat, Tamsin Williams with only 30% of the vote, winning by 14 votes over the Conservatives on 28.9%. In September of last year, Councillor Williams quit the Liberal Democrats for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall. She has decided not to defend the division.
This will be a cracker of a campaign with six candidates standing and a really battle for victory.
For the Liberal Democrats, Penny Young is standing and she will be not too pleased to be facing ex-Lib Dem town councillor, John Moreland, who is standing as an Independent candidate. I wonder if she is the mother of wonderful poet and satirist, Murray Lachlan Young, who is from Penzance (I think his mother is called Penny).
For the Conservatives, Michael Rabbitte is the candidate and he may regret stating in his election address that he has spent the last 28 years in London. He will be hoping that the Lib Dems slip here enough for him to win, but that would require no slippage from the Tories and that seems unlikely here right now.
UKIP are fielding Peter Mates and he will be looking for a big boost to the already good vote UKIP has here, the problem may be that UKIP has been a strong voice in the area for a long time with candidates (normally called Faulkner) getting good votes shares. It possibly means that there may be less of a swing to UKIP than in other parts of the country.
For Labour, long-time campaigner and candidate Cornelius Olivier returns again and this time, given the unpopularity of the national Coalition, Labour being back from its 2009 depths and Lib Dem no longer the party of protest, Mr Olivier knows he should win this time - if not now, then when? Labour are certainly campaigning hard here.
Muddying the waters is the MK-PC candidate and town councillor, Phil Rendle. Mr Rendle has stood for the party in Penzance before and will hope that the unhappiness with Truro and Westminster may help him to pull in a good vote and have a shot, in a divided field, to win the seat.
Prediction: Labour gain
Penzance East
A real blow to Labour here last time as their candidate, John Payne, was defeated by 25 votes at the hands of the Liberal Democrat victor, Ruth Lewarne. Another amazing vote share of only 30.4% winning a division.
Councillor Lewarne now faces five challengers, three from the centre-left and two from the right. A town councillor of many years, Cllr Lewarne will know her battleground well but her challenge is coming clearly from the Labour Party and she may well need to try and attract Tory votes to keep Labour out - it is a bit disingenous then to have people campaigning on the argument that only a vote for the Lib Dems can keep the Tories out (trust me, this has been happening), when the Tories start from fourth place last time. Voters aren't daft and don't like being treated as such - but I still admire the chutzpah.
For Labour, Tim Dwelly is the standard-bearer; a business man who promotes 'workhubs' (basically, providing offices wherever they are needed). An impressive campaigner, Mr Dwelly is facing a mini-storm of criticism on political blogs which suggests he must have people worried.
For UKIP, longstanding campaigner and regular candidate, Mick Faulkner is running again, he must feel like a man with whom political history has finally caught up. He must believe he has a chance but I just feel, as I pointed out above, that the UKIP vote has ridden fairly high here so will get less of a boost than in other places. I still think he will finish strongly though.
For the Conservative candidate, Angela Elliot, she must simply be hoping to hold up her party's vote as neither the make up of the division nor the dynamics of this campaign are good for her.
For Mebyon Kernow-PC, blogger Rob Simmons is standing, but I think it is not the campaign for this young man and he will see any of his potential vote being targeted by the Lib Dems and Labour. The same goes for the Green candidate, Michelle Paine.
Prediction: Labour Gain
Penzance Promenade
Won with, for Penzance, a decent share of the vote of 37.8%, Independent Councillor Sue Pass did well here in 2009, but is not defending this division. Stepping in as an Independent is former Penwith Council Chef Executive, Jim McKenna. Since being made redundant, Mr McKenna has been involved in supporting the building of affordable homes for first-time buyers, helping Penzance Radio to extend its coverage, and donating £5000 a year, for twenty years, to groups or individuals hoping to help locals to help themselves. To support himself, he works as a consultant.
The Liberal Democrats have selected Daniel Garside, who will be pretty confident that he can be victorious in this local seat now Cllr Race has stepped aside, building on a 29.6% vote share from last time. A campaigner for a fair car-park deal for residents and business in the town, Mr Garside will have a strong team working for him.
Also hopeful of taking this seat David Miles of the Conservative Party. With 20.4% last time, he might have a chance of coming up the outside to take the seat, but I would doubt it very much. I hope that the Conservatives are campaigning hard here (for their sake) as it is a place they need to be challenging for. This won't be helped by the UKIP campaign of Elizabeth Shore who may gain a lot of votes or it might be that UKIP is fairly old news in Penzance for the reasons I have expressed above. Mrs Shore is the widow of the late Labour Cabinet Minister Peter Shore, committed anti-Common Market man and leadership contender. She is the mother of Tacy Smith who is standing for UKIP in
For Labour, John Kirman is the sacrificial lamb because, even with what should be a certain vote growth after 2009, the party's focus is on the other two Penzance town seats.
If Mr McKenna has the campaigners, he could win this seat, but I suspect Mr Garside will win the street war.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Newlyn and Mousehole
For Penzance, a very good result for Councillor Roger Harding with a vote share of 49.6% but, in a split field, a majority of 581 votes. By any standards, very impressive but mostly delivered by the inability of any of the other 4 candidates to break free of the pack.
I don't believe that Cllr Harding will find the circumstances quite so inimicable on this occasion.
Mebyon Kernow came second last time, but are not fielding a candidate this time. UKIP's Tacy Smith is the one who would hope to benefit from unhappiness with the Conservative Party and will be looking to have a good boost here but see my above comments on this for the other Penzance divisions. She may well attract votes from the left as she is the daughter of the lale Labour Cabinet Minister, Peter Shore, who was a fervent opponent of the Common Market.
Caroline White is standing for the Liberal Democrats and will hope to at least achieve second place, although I think there is a fair chance that she might struggle with that. She will doubtless hope to pick up MK votes from last time.
For the Labour Party, a seasoned candidate in Nicholas Round is standing again; he will be targeting the MK votes but will also be hoping to take votes from the Lib Dems to give Labour a higher place this time.
Also running is the Green candidate, Heidi Worth, who I think well be squeezed out here.
Making up the field is Nigel Davis as an Independent candidate, about whom I know nothing.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
The Communion of Saints
I hope there's room for me.
Tuesday, 30 April 2013
Cornwall Council elections: Carrick
Carrick was a district council in Cornwall, on the 'ankle' of the peninsula. Its council was based in Truro. The main centres of population, industry and commerce were the city of Truro and the towns of Falmouth and Penryn. The district was created on 1 April 1974 by the merger of the municipal boroughs of Truro, Falmouth and Penryn, and the Truro Rural District. It was abolished with creation of the Cornwall Unitary Authority on 1st April 2009.
Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu
Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu
Chacewater is a village and civil parish, approximately three miles east of Redruth. The hamlets of Carnhot, Cox Hill, Creegbrawse, Hale Mills, Jolly's Bottom, Salem, Saveock, Scorrier, Todpool, Twelveheads and Wheal Busy are in the parish. The population in the 2001 census was 1,517.
Kenwyn is a settlement and civil parish. a suburb of the city of Truro and is situated half-a-mile north of the city centre. It gives its name to one of three rivers that flow through the city.
Baldhu is a former mining village and it is situated above the Carnon Valley 3 miles west of Truro.
In the 2009 election, this seat was won by Conservative district councillor, John Dyer. The former county councillor was Frederick Dyer, who I think to be the same person. Former lecturer, and small farm owner, Councillor Dyer is vice-chairman of the Council Member Champion for Agriculture and County Farms.
As the Liberal Democrats had previously had district councillors in this area, I am surprised that they have no candidate here.
Standing as an Independent is former Conservative councillor, Ross Treseder, a building construction contractor. He will doubtless try to attract former supporters and those who are unhappy with the Conservatives at the moment.
Standing for the Labour Party is Peggy Wicks and she has a real job on her hands. There have been signs of Labour growth in local Truro byelections so should have some target in mind. As the only centre-left candidate, she should hope to greatly improve on the 5.2% of the Labour wasteland of 2009.
UKIP are running a candidate, Redruth-based Michael Wicks, who should serve to undermine the Tory vote a little but, with 68.1% of the vote last time, Cllr Dyer shouldn't really worry too much.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Ladock, St Clement and St Erme
Ladock is a village and civil parish, about six miles northeast of Truro. St Clement is a civil parish and village, southeast of Truro in the valley of the Tresillian River. There is a smaller village at Malpas in the south of the parish. The urban part of the parish of St Clement was incorporated into Truro in 1895.
St Erme is a civil parish and village.
In 2009, the Conservative Mike Eathorne-Gibbons won this division with a comfortable 254 majority over an Independent, and 255 over the third-placed Liberal Democrat, which tells you that it isn't as safe as it might seem. There is no Independent this time so Ian Jones for the Lib Dems will hope to close the gap om Councillor Eathorne-Gibbons and take this seat from him.
Labour's candidate Stuart Venison cannot really fail to improve on the awful 3.8% the party managed last time, but he will hope to eat into the Liberal Democrat vote as well as a sign of the party recovering in this area.
For the Greens, Jo Poland will also be hoping to challenge the Liberal Democrats and build a good vote base for future elections.
As with all of the candidates though, the real question is as to the destination of the Independent votes from 2009.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Falmouth
Falmouth is a town, civil parish and port on the River Fal on the south coast of Cornwall. It has a total resident population of 21,635 (2001 census).
Falmouth is famous for its harbour. Together with Carrick Roads, it forms the third deepest natural harbour in the world, and the deepest in Western Europe. It is also famous for being the start or finish point of various round-the-world record-breaking voyages, such as those of Sir Francis Chichester and Dame Ellen MacArthur. Falmouth Docks Police enforce the law in the docks.
While Falmouth's maritime activity has much declined from its heyday, the docks are still a major contributor to the town's economy. It is the largest port in Cornwall. Falmouth is still a cargo port and the bunkering of vessels and the transfer of cargoes also keep the port's facilities busy. The port is also becoming popular with cruise ship operators. Further up the sheltered reaches of the Fal there are several ships laid up, awaiting sailing orders and/or new owners/charterers.
With its Georgian town houses converted into guest houses and small hotels, often overlooking one of the beaches, Falmouth has proven a popular holiday destination and it is now primarily a tourist resort.
There have been several boundary revisions here.
For the Liberal Democrats, Catherine Thornhill is standing and will hope to reverse the poor election result from 2009. Lib Dems have won here many times in the past and she has reason to feel confident.
For Labour, Robin Johnson will be fighting to build up the Labour vote here and, with an unpopular national coalition government, will want to reduce the Lib Dem vote significantly. Labour hopes in Falmouth are concentrated elsewhere and getting a good vote should be his aim. An Independent took second place last time in the shape of renegade Tory, Ian Laws, and he probably cost the Lib Dems a lot of votes at the time, even though he would not be a particularly liberal figure.
Unless he really botches up this election, Cllr Evans is safe.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
Falmouth Boslowick
This was another amazing result in 2009 with Independent Grenville Chappel taking the division with only 28.4% of the vote and a 56 majority over second-placed Liberal Democrat and 82 over Labour's long-standing county and district councillor, Gerald Chin-Quee. The Conservatives weren't too far off the chase either.
This time, Councillor Chappel, a Project Co-ordinator at Beacon Community Regeneration, is facing a former Liberal Democrat district councillor, John Body, a local town councillor.
For Labour, Hanna Toms is in for Labour - from Truro, youth worker Ms Toms has shown herself to be a doughty campaigner, and managed the not inconsiderable feat of fighting two Town council byelections in Truro Boscawen and producing a Labour vote of 246 at both elections, the second time almost overtaking the Liberal Democrat in a place where Labour has been crushed for years. Ms Toms has been working this division for a while and it'll be interesting to see how she does in what is a solid Labour target.
For UKIP, Amanda Wyner will be testing as yet unchecked waters for the party locally and we will have to see what she does and whom it most effects, although, as I have pointed out in other places, it tends to be Tories who are most attracted.
Whilst not being from Falmouth may work against Ms Toms, this is a seat that Labour must surely win if there is any sign of recovery, let alone a good one.
Prediction: Labour gain
Falmouth Smithick
Technically, nobody is defending the new Smithick division so it should be an interesting election. . With Independent (formerly a Conservative district councillor) Councillor Mike Varney not standing this time, there are three candidates standing as various kinds of Independent, a Liberal Democrat, a Conservative and a Labour candidate.
The most high-profile figure is former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton who is really sticking her neck out here to go for a seat where Labour's vote was swamped last time. Labour have done okay in the past, without winning. She must hope that dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats in the national Coalition, along with no defending councillor, will give here a good shot at the seat.
For the Liberal Democrats, student Kenny Edwards must be using all the energy of his 19 years to fight this particular battle. My memory of campaigning at that age was of exhilaration and shock, so best of luck.
Of the Independents, Diana Merrett is a town councillor who courted some controversy when she was suspended from the town council for two months in November 2011 for serious breaches of the council's code of conduct relating to her continued contact with a suspended (and later dismissed) council officer. Her punishment wasn't too harsh and she is recognised as a hard-working councillor.
Retired architect Christopher Smith is also standing under the Independent standard; a very active community worker, Mr Smith might well pick quite a number of votes and he clearly has the Liberal Democrats in his sights for the zero-percent Council Tax rise, which he sees as short-sighted and damaging to local services.
Tony Canton is the last of the Independents but I have not been able to find out anything about him
For the Conservatives, Carnon Downs resident, and retired company director, Liz Ashcroft will be keen to improve on the decent vote last time and to eat into the independently-inclined votebase. With a divided field with Labour perhaps dragging down the Lib Dem votes, Ms Ashcroft may well have a chance.
A very party-political campaign could backfire here.
Prediction: Absolutely no idea.
Falmouth Trescobeas
In 2009, Independent Councillor David Saunby was comfortably elected with 41.7% of the vote in a divided field of 5 candidates. Since then, he has won a town council by election in October of 2012, where he won a crushing victory with a majority of 305 votes over his closest rival - this in a town council byelection! This time he is in a field of seven candidates, with Labour/Co-op, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Green, UKIP and Independent former district councillor Vicky Eva taking him on.
The byelection was caused by the resignation from the town council of Vicky Eva, who was bested by Councillor Saunby at the last election. Mrs Eva, finance manager at Fit'N'Fun Kids nursery in Falmouth, is no political novice and will be aiming to take advantage of the competing parties to close the gap on Cllr Saunby. Wife of Cornwall Councillor Steve Eva (see above, Boslowick), I think, if she wants to, she may well give the incumbent a run for his money.
For the Liberal Democrats, Rhun Davies will hope to help the party back to winning ways in this part of Falmouth but he might find himself being squeezed between the two Independents.
The Conservatives have local man, Peter Williams, proprietor of Peter Williams Flooring and Ceilings Limited of Redruth. The Tories have not done much here for years and there is reason to expect that to change at this election. In the town by election, they slipped to third.
For Labour &Co-op, experienced Labour candidate, Brod Ross, is hoping to return Labour to its former strength in Trescobeas when it could take 40% of the vote in a straight fight with the Lib Dems - the problem is, this isn't a straight fight. In the 2010 town byeletion, Labour managed to take their vote from 2009's 7.8% to 18.2%, even receiving more votes than they did in the higher turnout of 2009. No Liberal Democrat stood in that by election, but Mebyon Kernow did. Post the national coalition, it might be a straw in the wind for Labour. Mr Ross is the husband of former Labour MP, Candy Atherton (standing in Smithick) and son of Betty Ross (Labour candidate in Mabe, Perranarworthal and St. Gluvias). Ms Atherton's mother, Pamela Atherton, is standing in Truro Redannick. A real family affair.
For the Greens, environmental scientist and part-time lecturer Euan McPhee is raising the banner but he is likely to be firmly overshadowed by the bigger characters in the race. A committed Methodist, he had been actively raising money for Merryn's Trust, to help one of the young people from his church to get a special wheelchair to enable her to return to study A-levels at Truro College after becoming paralysed following a rare blood disorder. A nice bloke - he won't win.
Finally, UKIP's Carole Douglas has the task of introducing UKIP to local politics in this division and, if the national polls are right, she should have some sort of success.
Prediction: Independent Saunby hold (but not by as much, and second place might be interesting)
St Agnes is a civil parish and a large village on the north coast of Cornwall about five miles north of Redruth and ten miles southwest of Newquay. The population of the parish is recorded as 7,257, whilst that of the village was 2,230.
Historically, St Agnes and the surrounding area relied on fishing, farming and mining for copper and tin. There were also iron foundries and an iron works, stamps and crazing mills, a smelter, blowing houses and clay extraction. By the 1930s mining and related industries had nearly ceased and by the 1950s the area had very little industrial commerce. Instead, the area became a bedroom community for workers in the surrounding towns and cities like Newquay and Truro, a desired retirement community and a favored holiday spot. The mining history is part of the draw for tourists, like the Blue Hills Tin Streams where tourists can see tin work demonstration. St Agnes village is relatively self-sufficient with local shops and business enterprises that support the village itself and the surrounding farming country.
A good old-fashioned three-way party battle, in 2009 St Agnes division was handily won by Liberal Democrat Les Donnithorne. This time, the Lib Dem candidate is Peter Mitchell who should have little trouble holding the seat, unless Labour manages to raise its vote share enough to bring it into play for the Conservatives.
Hoping for this is the Conservative candidate, town councillor Dawn Brown. She stood here in 2009 but, even in a good year for the Tories and a poor one for the Lib Dems in 2009, she was still 316 votes behind. Councillor Donnithorne had been around for a long time so she must hope that his standing down will open a door for her.
For Labour, Robert Harrison's intention must be to try to regain the decent vote the party used to be able to achieve in this area.
Predition: Liberal Democrat hold
Threemilestone and Gloweth
Threemilestone is a small village in the civil parish of Kenwyn, three miles west of Truro, Gloweth is a housing estate west of Treliske on the outskirts of Truro.
When I come to reflect upon my choice to give an overview of Cornwall, it is this kind of candidate make-up that will cause me to shudder - There are seven candidates, 4 of them Independents, all waiting to make a fool of any prediction I might care to make.
Actually, maybe not so terrible a choice as one of the Independents is the sitting Councillor, Chris Pascoe, elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2009. Councillor Pascoe quit the Liberal Democrats in protest against the actions of the national party and the introduction of the “pasty tax”. The Lib Dem group leader had taken him off the strategic planning committee after controversial plans for 1,500 homes on a site near Mr Pascoe’s home were approved by one vote and it is suggested that this is the reason for his resignation. Cllr Pascoe rejects this, saying he had been mulling leaving the party for a while.
For the Liberal Democrats, Moyra Nolan (whose husband is the Lib Dem councillor and candidate in Truro Redannick) will be aiming to keep the division in the Lib Dem colours and will hope signs of Lib Dem decline in local Truro byelections don't undermine her chances. A Blood Service worker, she will have to hope that she can squeeze every vote Labour can hope for. The famous bar charts are already in evidence, totally ignoring the Independents.
The Conservatives were second here in 2009 and their candidate, town councillor Adam Desmonde, will be fairly confident of coming through this pack, not least since he won the the 2012 byelection in Truro Boscawen ward, where the Lib Dem vote was seriously reduced, with much of it going across to the Labour Party. If this pattern repeats here, it could be good for the Tories, although there have been a drop in the support for the Tories in the polls since then, along with the series of splits and defections in the party in County Hall. I am not sure running on a headline of "Four Years of Delivery" is a sensible one though.
For Labour, the sacrificial lamb is Philip Fenton, co-founder of the Falmouth and Exeter University (FXU)
Truro Tregolls
This division is equivalent to the one held won by the Liberal Democrat, Doris Ansari, in 2009. This time, former Cornwall County Council leader, Councillor Ansari is not standing and Ros Cox is taking her place for the party. Defeated in 2009 by Cllr Bert Biscoe in the old Moresk division, former district councillor, and present city councillor, Cox will hope to be in County Hall come 3rd May. Conservative candidate Judy Cresswell will be pushing to close the gap but will be hampered by the entrance of a UKIP candidate into the race.
UKIP's Paul Minihan is unlikely to be more of a spoiler here and it may well put the seat beyond Ms Cresswell, even if she hopes that Labour or the Greens can take enough votes off the Lib Dems to bring the seat into play for the Tories.
In third place last time was Mebyon Kernow with its candidate, Loic Rich, taking 21.5% of the vote. Since then, actor, musician, and screenwriter Mr Rich has been on a bit of a political odyssey, resigning from the party to join the Conservatives and now standing as an Independent. I suspect he won't be able to hold onto the votes he received last time as an MK candidate, not least as the Greens and Labour will be battling for the centre-left vote.
For the Greens, who got 7.9% of the vote last time, Godfrey Allen is standing and will hope to take advantage of the unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats nationally to reap votes, but he cannot hope to win here.
Labour have Margaret George, secretary of Truro and Falmouth Amnesty International, hoping to get the party back to the high teens of percentage vote share at least.
To hold this division, Ms Cox needs to keep her party's vote in the mid-thirties of percentage (39% last time), and she will be okay.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.
Truro Trehaverne
Baldhu is a former mining village and it is situated above the Carnon Valley 3 miles west of Truro.
In the 2009 election, this seat was won by Conservative district councillor, John Dyer. The former county councillor was Frederick Dyer, who I think to be the same person. Former lecturer, and small farm owner, Councillor Dyer is vice-chairman of the Council Member Champion for Agriculture and County Farms.
As the Liberal Democrats had previously had district councillors in this area, I am surprised that they have no candidate here.
Standing as an Independent is former Conservative councillor, Ross Treseder, a building construction contractor. He will doubtless try to attract former supporters and those who are unhappy with the Conservatives at the moment.
Standing for the Labour Party is Peggy Wicks and she has a real job on her hands. There have been signs of Labour growth in local Truro byelections so should have some target in mind. As the only centre-left candidate, she should hope to greatly improve on the 5.2% of the Labour wasteland of 2009.
UKIP are running a candidate, Redruth-based Michael Wicks, who should serve to undermine the Tory vote a little but, with 68.1% of the vote last time, Cllr Dyer shouldn't really worry too much.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Ladock, St Clement and St Erme
Ladock is a village and civil parish, about six miles northeast of Truro. St Clement is a civil parish and village, southeast of Truro in the valley of the Tresillian River. There is a smaller village at Malpas in the south of the parish. The urban part of the parish of St Clement was incorporated into Truro in 1895.
St Erme is a civil parish and village.
In 2009, the Conservative Mike Eathorne-Gibbons won this division with a comfortable 254 majority over an Independent, and 255 over the third-placed Liberal Democrat, which tells you that it isn't as safe as it might seem. There is no Independent this time so Ian Jones for the Lib Dems will hope to close the gap om Councillor Eathorne-Gibbons and take this seat from him.
Labour's candidate Stuart Venison cannot really fail to improve on the awful 3.8% the party managed last time, but he will hope to eat into the Liberal Democrat vote as well as a sign of the party recovering in this area.
For the Greens, Jo Poland will also be hoping to challenge the Liberal Democrats and build a good vote base for future elections.
As with all of the candidates though, the real question is as to the destination of the Independent votes from 2009.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Falmouth
Falmouth is a town, civil parish and port on the River Fal on the south coast of Cornwall. It has a total resident population of 21,635 (2001 census).
Falmouth is famous for its harbour. Together with Carrick Roads, it forms the third deepest natural harbour in the world, and the deepest in Western Europe. It is also famous for being the start or finish point of various round-the-world record-breaking voyages, such as those of Sir Francis Chichester and Dame Ellen MacArthur. Falmouth Docks Police enforce the law in the docks.
While Falmouth's maritime activity has much declined from its heyday, the docks are still a major contributor to the town's economy. It is the largest port in Cornwall. Falmouth is still a cargo port and the bunkering of vessels and the transfer of cargoes also keep the port's facilities busy. The port is also becoming popular with cruise ship operators. Further up the sheltered reaches of the Fal there are several ships laid up, awaiting sailing orders and/or new owners/charterers.
With its Georgian town houses converted into guest houses and small hotels, often overlooking one of the beaches, Falmouth has proven a popular holiday destination and it is now primarily a tourist resort.
There have been several boundary revisions here.
Falmouth Arwenack
Geoffrey Evans was comfortably elected to the old Gyllyngvase division in 2009 with no real close challengers in a large field (six candidates); it might be less comfortable for him this time as he is only facing two challengers, one Liberal Democrat and one from Labour. Councillor Evans has been the mayor of Falmouth since 2009, having previously held the post from 2000-2002. He was a district councillor until the creation of the unitary authority.For the Liberal Democrats, Catherine Thornhill is standing and will hope to reverse the poor election result from 2009. Lib Dems have won here many times in the past and she has reason to feel confident.
For Labour, Robin Johnson will be fighting to build up the Labour vote here and, with an unpopular national coalition government, will want to reduce the Lib Dem vote significantly. Labour hopes in Falmouth are concentrated elsewhere and getting a good vote should be his aim. An Independent took second place last time in the shape of renegade Tory, Ian Laws, and he probably cost the Lib Dems a lot of votes at the time, even though he would not be a particularly liberal figure.
Unless he really botches up this election, Cllr Evans is safe.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
Falmouth Boslowick
In the new Arwenack division, Independent Councillor Steve Eva pulled off the almost unbelievable victory with only 24.3% of the vote, 13 ahead of the Liberal Democrat, 31 ahead of the Conservative, 80 ahead of Mebyon Kernow and 116 ahead of Labour. A really tight race which shows that a large field can cause amazing results.
A former Liberal Democrat district councillor, Councillor Eva has stood as an Independent at other times as well. He is facing an equally tough battle this year, with former county and district councillor Roger Bonney picking up the Lib Dem banner. A former mayor, Mr Bonney has a top target seat that he shouldn't be able to miss out on.
Also displaying high hopes should be Conservative candidate, chalet and camping park owner Alan Jewell, but this year may not be conducive to a Conservative victory, with unpopularity both nationally and locally. A town councillor, he was elected in a by election in 2009 but times have changed since then.
For Labour, Nicholas Jemmett will be trying to show that voters really are returning to the Labour party and building up a big enough vote to threaten to grab the seat. It might be possible but seems a bit too far off the mark to be honest.
Hindering Mr Jewell is company director Mairi Hayworth, who will be looking to pick up votes from everywhere but might be more attractive to unhappy Tories. UKIP have a history here, picking up nearly 20% of the vote in the 2007 district elections. She might well be the one to watch this year. Cllr Eva will be feeling the heat and I suspect his pacing of the floor and spilling of coffee on election night will cause him to bring his skills as a carpet cleaner to bear.
Prediction: No idea - could be anybody.
Falmouth Penwerris
This was another amazing result in 2009 with Independent Grenville Chappel taking the division with only 28.4% of the vote and a 56 majority over second-placed Liberal Democrat and 82 over Labour's long-standing county and district councillor, Gerald Chin-Quee. The Conservatives weren't too far off the chase either.
This time, Councillor Chappel, a Project Co-ordinator at Beacon Community Regeneration, is facing a former Liberal Democrat district councillor, John Body, a local town councillor.
For Labour, Hanna Toms is in for Labour - from Truro, youth worker Ms Toms has shown herself to be a doughty campaigner, and managed the not inconsiderable feat of fighting two Town council byelections in Truro Boscawen and producing a Labour vote of 246 at both elections, the second time almost overtaking the Liberal Democrat in a place where Labour has been crushed for years. Ms Toms has been working this division for a while and it'll be interesting to see how she does in what is a solid Labour target.
For UKIP, Amanda Wyner will be testing as yet unchecked waters for the party locally and we will have to see what she does and whom it most effects, although, as I have pointed out in other places, it tends to be Tories who are most attracted.
Whilst not being from Falmouth may work against Ms Toms, this is a seat that Labour must surely win if there is any sign of recovery, let alone a good one.
Prediction: Labour gain
Falmouth Smithick
Technically, nobody is defending the new Smithick division so it should be an interesting election. . With Independent (formerly a Conservative district councillor) Councillor Mike Varney not standing this time, there are three candidates standing as various kinds of Independent, a Liberal Democrat, a Conservative and a Labour candidate.
The most high-profile figure is former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton who is really sticking her neck out here to go for a seat where Labour's vote was swamped last time. Labour have done okay in the past, without winning. She must hope that dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats in the national Coalition, along with no defending councillor, will give here a good shot at the seat.
For the Liberal Democrats, student Kenny Edwards must be using all the energy of his 19 years to fight this particular battle. My memory of campaigning at that age was of exhilaration and shock, so best of luck.
Of the Independents, Diana Merrett is a town councillor who courted some controversy when she was suspended from the town council for two months in November 2011 for serious breaches of the council's code of conduct relating to her continued contact with a suspended (and later dismissed) council officer. Her punishment wasn't too harsh and she is recognised as a hard-working councillor.
Retired architect Christopher Smith is also standing under the Independent standard; a very active community worker, Mr Smith might well pick quite a number of votes and he clearly has the Liberal Democrats in his sights for the zero-percent Council Tax rise, which he sees as short-sighted and damaging to local services.
Tony Canton is the last of the Independents but I have not been able to find out anything about him
For the Conservatives, Carnon Downs resident, and retired company director, Liz Ashcroft will be keen to improve on the decent vote last time and to eat into the independently-inclined votebase. With a divided field with Labour perhaps dragging down the Lib Dem votes, Ms Ashcroft may well have a chance.
A very party-political campaign could backfire here.
Prediction: Absolutely no idea.
Falmouth Trescobeas
In 2009, Independent Councillor David Saunby was comfortably elected with 41.7% of the vote in a divided field of 5 candidates. Since then, he has won a town council by election in October of 2012, where he won a crushing victory with a majority of 305 votes over his closest rival - this in a town council byelection! This time he is in a field of seven candidates, with Labour/Co-op, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Green, UKIP and Independent former district councillor Vicky Eva taking him on.
The byelection was caused by the resignation from the town council of Vicky Eva, who was bested by Councillor Saunby at the last election. Mrs Eva, finance manager at Fit'N'Fun Kids nursery in Falmouth, is no political novice and will be aiming to take advantage of the competing parties to close the gap on Cllr Saunby. Wife of Cornwall Councillor Steve Eva (see above, Boslowick), I think, if she wants to, she may well give the incumbent a run for his money.
For the Liberal Democrats, Rhun Davies will hope to help the party back to winning ways in this part of Falmouth but he might find himself being squeezed between the two Independents.
The Conservatives have local man, Peter Williams, proprietor of Peter Williams Flooring and Ceilings Limited of Redruth. The Tories have not done much here for years and there is reason to expect that to change at this election. In the town by election, they slipped to third.
For Labour &Co-op, experienced Labour candidate, Brod Ross, is hoping to return Labour to its former strength in Trescobeas when it could take 40% of the vote in a straight fight with the Lib Dems - the problem is, this isn't a straight fight. In the 2010 town byeletion, Labour managed to take their vote from 2009's 7.8% to 18.2%, even receiving more votes than they did in the higher turnout of 2009. No Liberal Democrat stood in that by election, but Mebyon Kernow did. Post the national coalition, it might be a straw in the wind for Labour. Mr Ross is the husband of former Labour MP, Candy Atherton (standing in Smithick) and son of Betty Ross (Labour candidate in Mabe, Perranarworthal and St. Gluvias). Ms Atherton's mother, Pamela Atherton, is standing in Truro Redannick. A real family affair.
For the Greens, environmental scientist and part-time lecturer Euan McPhee is raising the banner but he is likely to be firmly overshadowed by the bigger characters in the race. A committed Methodist, he had been actively raising money for Merryn's Trust, to help one of the young people from his church to get a special wheelchair to enable her to return to study A-levels at Truro College after becoming paralysed following a rare blood disorder. A nice bloke - he won't win.
Finally, UKIP's Carole Douglas has the task of introducing UKIP to local politics in this division and, if the national polls are right, she should have some sort of success.
Prediction: Independent Saunby hold (but not by as much, and second place might be interesting)
Mount Hawke and Portreath
Mount Hawke is a village in Cornwall, approximately seven miles west-northwest of Truro, three miles northeast of Redruth, and two miles south of St Agnes.The village is in a former mining area in the administrative civil parish of St Agnes. The settlements bordering Mount Hawke are Banns (northwest) and Menagissey (south); Porthtowan is to the west.
Portreath is a civil parish, village and fishing port on the north coast of Cornwall, about three miles (5 km) northwest of Redruth.
The village extends along both sides of a stream valley and is centred around the harbour and beach. West of the harbour entrance and breakwater are two sandy beaches which are popular with holidaymakers and surfers. Whilst its 2001 census population was shown as 1,337, its present electorate is about 1,100.
In 2009, there were eight candidates in this division, won by Liberal Democrat, Joyce Duffin, with a vote share of 36.6% and a majority of 99 over the Conservative district councillor, Eugene Hope.
This time, there are only 3 candidates (praise the Lord) but none of them is Conservative which seems astonishing. It is of course possible that Mr Hope was the Tory party here but, nonetheless, it is a surprise.
Hoping to sweep up the unrepresented Tory votes is UKIP's Eileen Lewis who might do fairly well here but there is no guarantee that she will pick up all Tories, many of whom have no love for UKIP.
For Labour, Phillip Knight will hope to gain the votes of those who would have voted for the Liberal and Mebyon Kernow candidates last time, as well as gain votes from unhappy voters who plumped for the Lib Dems in the past. It is not going to be a winning campaign for him but, given that Labour did so badly last time (4%), the only way is up. He will be happy to be well into double figures.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Probus is a civil parish and village, famous for having the tallest church tower in Cornwall. Tregony is a civil parish and village lying on the River Fal. Grampound is a village six miles west of St Austell. Grampound with Creed is the civil parish of which the village of Grampound and the village of Creed are the main settlements. Since 2009, the Cuby civil parish has been added to the division whilst St Michael Penkivel has transferred to the Roseland division.
In 2009, Independent Bob Egerton won the Probus division with 33.3% of the vote, securing a majority of 63 over the Conservatives. Councillor Egerton sits as a Standalone Independent, not part of the Independent Group in coalition at County Hall. He is the Member Champion for Information Management and Transparency (no, me neither).
The big story of the last election was the absolute collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote with the former district councillor, Fred Greenslade, seeing his vote share fall to 14.6%. This used to be a fairly safe Lib Dem seat, so the fact they are not standing now is indicative of them no longer seeing it as worth targeting, with better prospects elsewhere.
This time, the Conservatives field Sean Marshall, who will hope that the fact that UKIP candidate, Steve Kendall, seems to live a long way away from the division will make it less likely that he will gain support. UKIP's presence won't help though.
For Labour, party stalwart Norman Roach surely can't fail to raise the vote above the 2.2% of 2009. Whilst Cllr Egerton will hope to gain from the lack of a Liberal Democrat or Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate and as the only Independent candidate on this occasion (there was another in 2009, taking 16.1% of the vote), Labour should also hope to make some progress as the only left-of-centre choice.
Prediction: (Standalone) Independent hold
Portreath is a civil parish, village and fishing port on the north coast of Cornwall, about three miles (5 km) northwest of Redruth.
The village extends along both sides of a stream valley and is centred around the harbour and beach. West of the harbour entrance and breakwater are two sandy beaches which are popular with holidaymakers and surfers. Whilst its 2001 census population was shown as 1,337, its present electorate is about 1,100.
In 2009, there were eight candidates in this division, won by Liberal Democrat, Joyce Duffin, with a vote share of 36.6% and a majority of 99 over the Conservative district councillor, Eugene Hope.
This time, there are only 3 candidates (praise the Lord) but none of them is Conservative which seems astonishing. It is of course possible that Mr Hope was the Tory party here but, nonetheless, it is a surprise.
Hoping to sweep up the unrepresented Tory votes is UKIP's Eileen Lewis who might do fairly well here but there is no guarantee that she will pick up all Tories, many of whom have no love for UKIP.
For Labour, Phillip Knight will hope to gain the votes of those who would have voted for the Liberal and Mebyon Kernow candidates last time, as well as gain votes from unhappy voters who plumped for the Lib Dems in the past. It is not going to be a winning campaign for him but, given that Labour did so badly last time (4%), the only way is up. He will be happy to be well into double figures.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold
Penryn
Penryn is a civil parish and town, on the Penryn River about 1 mile northwest of Falmouth. The population was 6,227 in the 2001 census. Although latterly overshadowed by nearby Falmouth, Penryn was once an important harbour in its own right throughout the medieval period exporting granite and tin.
Penryn is a civil parish and town, on the Penryn River about 1 mile northwest of Falmouth. The population was 6,227 in the 2001 census. Although latterly overshadowed by nearby Falmouth, Penryn was once an important harbour in its own right throughout the medieval period exporting granite and tin.
Penryn East and Mylor
Mylor is a civil parish, approximately five miles north of Falmouth. Mylor Bridge is the largest village in the parish. Mylor is a maritime parish and is bounded by water on three sides: Restronguet Creek to the north, Carrick Roads to the east and Falmouth Harbour to the south. To the west it is bounded by St Gluvias and Perranarworthal parishes.
In 2009, Conservative candidate Tony Martin was elected with just under 40% of the vote, 174 ahead of Independent candidate, and fellow district councillor, Judith Whiteley. Ms Whiteley is back for a rematch but this time she is the Liberal Democrat candidate.
Ms Whitely will doubtless hope that her personal profile, joined to the 249 votes the Lib Dems received last time, will win her back the seat - voters don't always work that way.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, David Garwood will be hoping to improve on the 9.6% from last time; I would suggest that more punchy leaflets than the essay form he has put out might best grab attention.
Miriam Venner carries the flag for Labour; the Curriculum Area Manager for Media and Performing Arts at Camborne College, Ms Venner will be hoping to increase Labour's 5.9% share of the vote to something more respectable, whilst avoiding a Tory-Lib Dem squeeze. Labour used to have a decent amount of support in Penryn and in Mylor.
Independent John Symons will be targeting all those voters who feel let down by parties or who feel, as has been the history in this division, that an Independent candidate better serves at local level.
UKIP are in this race as well with Paula Clements. Cllr Martin will not be best pleased but in such a busy race, it will be a battle for either of the front-runners to pull away.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain (with no real confidence)
In 2009, Conservative candidate Tony Martin was elected with just under 40% of the vote, 174 ahead of Independent candidate, and fellow district councillor, Judith Whiteley. Ms Whiteley is back for a rematch but this time she is the Liberal Democrat candidate.
Ms Whitely will doubtless hope that her personal profile, joined to the 249 votes the Lib Dems received last time, will win her back the seat - voters don't always work that way.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, David Garwood will be hoping to improve on the 9.6% from last time; I would suggest that more punchy leaflets than the essay form he has put out might best grab attention.
Miriam Venner carries the flag for Labour; the Curriculum Area Manager for Media and Performing Arts at Camborne College, Ms Venner will be hoping to increase Labour's 5.9% share of the vote to something more respectable, whilst avoiding a Tory-Lib Dem squeeze. Labour used to have a decent amount of support in Penryn and in Mylor.
Independent John Symons will be targeting all those voters who feel let down by parties or who feel, as has been the history in this division, that an Independent candidate better serves at local level.
UKIP are in this race as well with Paula Clements. Cllr Martin will not be best pleased but in such a busy race, it will be a battle for either of the front-runners to pull away.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain (with no real confidence)
Penryn West
A very close run election in 2009 with Independent, Mary May, taking just 31.8% of the vote and beating the Liberal Democrat Cait Hutchings by just 18 votes. Both town councillors, the ladies have returned for a rematch.
Hoping to prove that Labour are back in the political game in this area is Jim Lloyd-Davies, a former BT engineer, who will been hoping that dissatisfaction with the Con-Ind coalition in County Hall and the Con-Lib Dem coalition in Westminster will attract traditional Labour voters back and prevent a repeat of the 5.9% of the vote Labour received in 2009.
There is no Conservative candidate this time, so the right-wing flank is being represented by Martin Orders of UKIP, about whom I know nothing.
The question really is what will happen to the Conservative vote (15.6%) and other Independent vote (16.5%) from last time? It has been a strong Lib Dem area in the past so I will lean towards Mrs Hutchings.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Probus, Tregony and Grampound
Probus is a civil parish and village, famous for having the tallest church tower in Cornwall. Tregony is a civil parish and village lying on the River Fal. Grampound is a village six miles west of St Austell. Grampound with Creed is the civil parish of which the village of Grampound and the village of Creed are the main settlements. Since 2009, the Cuby civil parish has been added to the division whilst St Michael Penkivel has transferred to the Roseland division.
In 2009, Independent Bob Egerton won the Probus division with 33.3% of the vote, securing a majority of 63 over the Conservatives. Councillor Egerton sits as a Standalone Independent, not part of the Independent Group in coalition at County Hall. He is the Member Champion for Information Management and Transparency (no, me neither).
The big story of the last election was the absolute collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote with the former district councillor, Fred Greenslade, seeing his vote share fall to 14.6%. This used to be a fairly safe Lib Dem seat, so the fact they are not standing now is indicative of them no longer seeing it as worth targeting, with better prospects elsewhere.
This time, the Conservatives field Sean Marshall, who will hope that the fact that UKIP candidate, Steve Kendall, seems to live a long way away from the division will make it less likely that he will gain support. UKIP's presence won't help though.
For Labour, party stalwart Norman Roach surely can't fail to raise the vote above the 2.2% of 2009. Whilst Cllr Egerton will hope to gain from the lack of a Liberal Democrat or Mebyon Kernow-PC candidate and as the only Independent candidate on this occasion (there was another in 2009, taking 16.1% of the vote), Labour should also hope to make some progress as the only left-of-centre choice.
Prediction: (Standalone) Independent hold
Newlyn and Goonhavern
Goonhavern is a village in north Cornwall, about two miles east of Perranporth. In 2001, it had a population 1,060.
In 2009, this division was easily won by Conservative, Jinny Clark, but she is not defending the seat this time and is replaced by Lisa Shuttlewood, a former nurse, hotelier and now lingerie shop owner in Newquay. Ms Shuttlewood is a Newquay town councillor, having won her seat in a byelection in August of 2011.
For the Liberal Democrats, Newquay town councillor John Rainbow will hope to reclaim the area for the party. The Lib Dems were 227 votes behind last time and only 26 votes ahead of an Independent in third place. Whilst there is no Independent this time, the presence of Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall candidate, Rod Toms, will be an added challenge. The Liberal Party had a candidate last time but their North Cornwall presence has been reduced to the one candidate in Four Lanes division.
Dr Toms, a parish councillor, is campaigning hard and is hopeful of a breakthrough here although it has been a while since an MK-PC candidate has stood for a large council election.
For Labour, Meg Tremayne will be looking to lift the vote from the basement 4.2% of last time.
A tough seat to predict with a drop in the Tory vote likely to be matched by a divided opposition.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Feock and Playing Place
Feock is a coastal civil parish and village, about 5 miles south of Truro at the head of Carrick Roads on the River Fal. To the south, the parish is bordered by Restronguet Creek and to the east by Carrick Roads and the River Fal. To the north it is bordered by Kea parish and to the west by Perranarworthal parish. The 2001 census recorded the population as 3,505. Playing Place is a village southwest of Truro.
Kea is a civil parish and village in a former mining area south of Truro. Kea village is situated just over one mile southwest of Truro. The 2001 census recorded the population as 1,516.
In 2009, present Cornwall Council leader, Jim Currie, was elected. A long time district and county councillor, Mr Currie resigned as a cabinet member in protest at the position on privatisation of council services held by the then Conservative Group and Council leader, Alec Robertson. Councillor Currie was elected leader after a council vote of no confidence in Cllr Robertson. It has not been a happy time for Cllr Currie, with defections from his party, including Cabinet members, and having to face a budget debacle when several renegade members of his group rebelled and voted with the liberal Democrats for a 0% rise in the council tax. He sacked Cabinet member Stephen Rushworth after that vote. It is no surprise that he has decided to step down. Local voters might be annoyed with the way they perceive that Cllr Currie has been treated and that might cost them.
In his place, the Conservatives have chosen Steve Chamberlain, who stood in Truro Moresk last time, to defend Cllr Currie's fairly slim majority of 109 from last time. The main challenger then was an Independent, Tomas Hill. He is replaced in the Independent cause by town councillor Bob Richards. Mr Richards will hope that he can pick up the Independent vote and the vote of those unhappy with the local and national governments.
The Liberal Democrats did badly here last time in a seat they would previously win. They came third with 17.5% of the vote. Their candidate, Christine Ryall, will need to campaign hard.
Not as hard as Labour candidate Jayne Kirkham; Labour's share of the vote was only 3.1% in 2009 and the party will need to avoid being squeezed even further. Given the unpopularity of the national government, it is unlikely and there should be some bounce for them here.
Prediction: Hard to predict.
St Agnes
Goonhavern is a village in north Cornwall, about two miles east of Perranporth. In 2001, it had a population 1,060.
In 2009, this division was easily won by Conservative, Jinny Clark, but she is not defending the seat this time and is replaced by Lisa Shuttlewood, a former nurse, hotelier and now lingerie shop owner in Newquay. Ms Shuttlewood is a Newquay town councillor, having won her seat in a byelection in August of 2011.
For the Liberal Democrats, Newquay town councillor John Rainbow will hope to reclaim the area for the party. The Lib Dems were 227 votes behind last time and only 26 votes ahead of an Independent in third place. Whilst there is no Independent this time, the presence of Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall candidate, Rod Toms, will be an added challenge. The Liberal Party had a candidate last time but their North Cornwall presence has been reduced to the one candidate in Four Lanes division.
Dr Toms, a parish councillor, is campaigning hard and is hopeful of a breakthrough here although it has been a while since an MK-PC candidate has stood for a large council election.
For Labour, Meg Tremayne will be looking to lift the vote from the basement 4.2% of last time.
A tough seat to predict with a drop in the Tory vote likely to be matched by a divided opposition.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Feock and Playing Place
Feock is a coastal civil parish and village, about 5 miles south of Truro at the head of Carrick Roads on the River Fal. To the south, the parish is bordered by Restronguet Creek and to the east by Carrick Roads and the River Fal. To the north it is bordered by Kea parish and to the west by Perranarworthal parish. The 2001 census recorded the population as 3,505. Playing Place is a village southwest of Truro.
Kea is a civil parish and village in a former mining area south of Truro. Kea village is situated just over one mile southwest of Truro. The 2001 census recorded the population as 1,516.
In 2009, present Cornwall Council leader, Jim Currie, was elected. A long time district and county councillor, Mr Currie resigned as a cabinet member in protest at the position on privatisation of council services held by the then Conservative Group and Council leader, Alec Robertson. Councillor Currie was elected leader after a council vote of no confidence in Cllr Robertson. It has not been a happy time for Cllr Currie, with defections from his party, including Cabinet members, and having to face a budget debacle when several renegade members of his group rebelled and voted with the liberal Democrats for a 0% rise in the council tax. He sacked Cabinet member Stephen Rushworth after that vote. It is no surprise that he has decided to step down. Local voters might be annoyed with the way they perceive that Cllr Currie has been treated and that might cost them.
In his place, the Conservatives have chosen Steve Chamberlain, who stood in Truro Moresk last time, to defend Cllr Currie's fairly slim majority of 109 from last time. The main challenger then was an Independent, Tomas Hill. He is replaced in the Independent cause by town councillor Bob Richards. Mr Richards will hope that he can pick up the Independent vote and the vote of those unhappy with the local and national governments.
The Liberal Democrats did badly here last time in a seat they would previously win. They came third with 17.5% of the vote. Their candidate, Christine Ryall, will need to campaign hard.
Not as hard as Labour candidate Jayne Kirkham; Labour's share of the vote was only 3.1% in 2009 and the party will need to avoid being squeezed even further. Given the unpopularity of the national government, it is unlikely and there should be some bounce for them here.
Prediction: Hard to predict.
St Agnes
St Agnes is a civil parish and a large village on the north coast of Cornwall about five miles north of Redruth and ten miles southwest of Newquay. The population of the parish is recorded as 7,257, whilst that of the village was 2,230.
Historically, St Agnes and the surrounding area relied on fishing, farming and mining for copper and tin. There were also iron foundries and an iron works, stamps and crazing mills, a smelter, blowing houses and clay extraction. By the 1930s mining and related industries had nearly ceased and by the 1950s the area had very little industrial commerce. Instead, the area became a bedroom community for workers in the surrounding towns and cities like Newquay and Truro, a desired retirement community and a favored holiday spot. The mining history is part of the draw for tourists, like the Blue Hills Tin Streams where tourists can see tin work demonstration. St Agnes village is relatively self-sufficient with local shops and business enterprises that support the village itself and the surrounding farming country.
A good old-fashioned three-way party battle, in 2009 St Agnes division was handily won by Liberal Democrat Les Donnithorne. This time, the Lib Dem candidate is Peter Mitchell who should have little trouble holding the seat, unless Labour manages to raise its vote share enough to bring it into play for the Conservatives.
Hoping for this is the Conservative candidate, town councillor Dawn Brown. She stood here in 2009 but, even in a good year for the Tories and a poor one for the Lib Dems in 2009, she was still 316 votes behind. Councillor Donnithorne had been around for a long time so she must hope that his standing down will open a door for her.
For Labour, Robert Harrison's intention must be to try to regain the decent vote the party used to be able to achieve in this area.
Predition: Liberal Democrat hold
Threemilestone and Gloweth
Threemilestone is a small village in the civil parish of Kenwyn, three miles west of Truro, Gloweth is a housing estate west of Treliske on the outskirts of Truro.
When I come to reflect upon my choice to give an overview of Cornwall, it is this kind of candidate make-up that will cause me to shudder - There are seven candidates, 4 of them Independents, all waiting to make a fool of any prediction I might care to make.
Actually, maybe not so terrible a choice as one of the Independents is the sitting Councillor, Chris Pascoe, elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2009. Councillor Pascoe quit the Liberal Democrats in protest against the actions of the national party and the introduction of the “pasty tax”. The Lib Dem group leader had taken him off the strategic planning committee after controversial plans for 1,500 homes on a site near Mr Pascoe’s home were approved by one vote and it is suggested that this is the reason for his resignation. Cllr Pascoe rejects this, saying he had been mulling leaving the party for a while.
For the Liberal Democrats, Moyra Nolan (whose husband is the Lib Dem councillor and candidate in Truro Redannick) will be aiming to keep the division in the Lib Dem colours and will hope signs of Lib Dem decline in local Truro byelections don't undermine her chances. A Blood Service worker, she will have to hope that she can squeeze every vote Labour can hope for. The famous bar charts are already in evidence, totally ignoring the Independents.
The Conservatives were second here in 2009 and their candidate, town councillor Adam Desmonde, will be fairly confident of coming through this pack, not least since he won the the 2012 byelection in Truro Boscawen ward, where the Lib Dem vote was seriously reduced, with much of it going across to the Labour Party. If this pattern repeats here, it could be good for the Tories, although there have been a drop in the support for the Tories in the polls since then, along with the series of splits and defections in the party in County Hall. I am not sure running on a headline of "Four Years of Delivery" is a sensible one though.
For Labour, the sacrificial lamb is Philip Fenton, co-founder of the Falmouth and Exeter University (FXU)
Labour Students Society and, as he admits, deeply involved in revision. Whilst Labour might have had a hope of a decent vote with a good campaign here, they have better chances elsewhere and Mr Fenton is undoubtedly just giving locals a chance to vote Labour. I think Labour's vote will increase from the dismal 4.5% of 2009, but I am not sure by how much.
Independent candidate Tim Deeble is a lifelong resident of Threemilestone and local builder and served as a parish councillor. His leaflet shows the candidate trick of standing next to things, whether he has learnt the trick of winning is another question.
NHS worker John Humar is another Independent, a union activist and charity worker, he will be sharing the risk of disappearing in the crowd here.
The final candidate is Ken Hart, chairman of Threemilestone Angling Club (I think it is the same man). I know little else.
The Lib Dem trick of pretending Cllr Pascoe doesn't exist here is a risky one and I think this division could go any of three ways.
Prediction: Lib Dem hold (or Conservative gain)
Perranporth
Perranporth is a small seaside resort town on the north coast of Cornwall, 6 miles southwest of Newquay and 7 miles northwest of Truro. Perranporth and its 3 miles long beach face the Atlantic Ocean. In the 2001 census, it had a population of 3,066 and is the largest settlement in the civil parish of Perranzabuloe (pop 5,382 (2001 census). it is home to no less than 16 masonic bodies.
In 2009, Independent Councillor Michael Callan won this division very easily with more than double the vote of the second-placed Conservative. I cannot see the new Conservative candidate, Lisa Marshall, causing him too much concern this time either.
The Liberal Democrats are not fielding a candidate and for those who wish to vote for a party of the centre-left, they have the option of the Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate, Paul Dunbar, or Labour's Simon Coley. MK-PC have done fairly well here in the past so will have some ambition to pick up up a good number of votes. For Labour's Simon Coley, the distant sounds of "Things....can only get better" will lift the spirits in the face of the awful 2.8% from 2009.
Challenging for the Independent vote is Mark Langdon. I know nothing about him.
Local sub-postmaster and gallery owner Cllr Callan should be safe enough this time, it is the order below him that is of interest in this election.
Prediction: Independent hold
Roseland
St Just in Roseland is a civil parish and village on the Roseland peninsula The village is situated six miles south of Truro and two miles north of St Mawes.
This division was easily won by Independent, Julian German, in 2009, taking 65.2% of the votes cast.
Councillor German, formerly the Cabinet Mamber for Climate, is a promoter of the Cornish language, which he speaks.
Standing against him this year is former district council leader, Fred Greenslade, who was a councillor for 40 years until 2009. He was once a Liberal Democrat but is now standing as a Conservative. At the last election, the Conservatives received 24.5% of the vote and Mr Greenslade will hope his high profile and experience will play in his favour.
There is nobody from the Liberal Democrats this time so Labour candidate, Callum MacLeod, can hope to give the party a good relaunch in this division, which they haven't fought in for a number of years.
UKIP are fielding Elizabeth Coleman and, as with the Labour Party, it will be interesting to see how they go on in this new area for them.
Prediction: Independent hold
Truro
Perranporth
Perranporth is a small seaside resort town on the north coast of Cornwall, 6 miles southwest of Newquay and 7 miles northwest of Truro. Perranporth and its 3 miles long beach face the Atlantic Ocean. In the 2001 census, it had a population of 3,066 and is the largest settlement in the civil parish of Perranzabuloe (pop 5,382 (2001 census). it is home to no less than 16 masonic bodies.
In 2009, Independent Councillor Michael Callan won this division very easily with more than double the vote of the second-placed Conservative. I cannot see the new Conservative candidate, Lisa Marshall, causing him too much concern this time either.
The Liberal Democrats are not fielding a candidate and for those who wish to vote for a party of the centre-left, they have the option of the Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall candidate, Paul Dunbar, or Labour's Simon Coley. MK-PC have done fairly well here in the past so will have some ambition to pick up up a good number of votes. For Labour's Simon Coley, the distant sounds of "Things....can only get better" will lift the spirits in the face of the awful 2.8% from 2009.
Challenging for the Independent vote is Mark Langdon. I know nothing about him.
Local sub-postmaster and gallery owner Cllr Callan should be safe enough this time, it is the order below him that is of interest in this election.
Prediction: Independent hold
Roseland
St Just in Roseland is a civil parish and village on the Roseland peninsula The village is situated six miles south of Truro and two miles north of St Mawes.
This division was easily won by Independent, Julian German, in 2009, taking 65.2% of the votes cast.
Councillor German, formerly the Cabinet Mamber for Climate, is a promoter of the Cornish language, which he speaks.
Standing against him this year is former district council leader, Fred Greenslade, who was a councillor for 40 years until 2009. He was once a Liberal Democrat but is now standing as a Conservative. At the last election, the Conservatives received 24.5% of the vote and Mr Greenslade will hope his high profile and experience will play in his favour.
There is nobody from the Liberal Democrats this time so Labour candidate, Callum MacLeod, can hope to give the party a good relaunch in this division, which they haven't fought in for a number of years.
UKIP are fielding Elizabeth Coleman and, as with the Labour Party, it will be interesting to see how they go on in this new area for them.
Prediction: Independent hold
Truro
Truro is a city and civil parish. The city is the centre for administration, leisure and retail in Cornwall, with a population recorded in the 2001 census of 17,431. Truro urban statistical area, which includes parts of surrounding parishes, has a 2001 census population of 20,920. By 2010 the city's population had increased to 19,134 and its surrounding urban area to 23,000 as based on the results of the population of Cornwall in 2010. It is the only city in the county, and the most southern city in Mainland Great Britain. Truro initially grew as an important centre of trade from its port and then as a stannary town for the mining industry. The city is well known for its cathedral (completed in 1910), cobbled streets, open spaces and Georgian architecture. Places of interest include the Royal Cornwall Museum, the Hall for Cornwall, Cornwall's Courts of Justice and Cornwall Council.
Since the days of the late, great Liberal MP, Devid Penhaligon, Truro has been a bastion for the Liberal Democrats with the old traditional Labour voting area swinging strongly to them. With the retirement of the Mr Penhaligon's successor, Matthew Taylor, in 2010, the Truro and Falmouth constituence fell the the Conservatives by 435 votes. The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that Labour has shown signs of rebuilding a base in Truro in two byelections in the city's Boscawen ward, very much at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. This election is important for the Liberal Democrats to gauge how they now stand with such an unpopular coalition in Westminster. Mr Penhaligon died in a road accident in 1987 and politics is much sadder for it. His cousin, actress Susan Penhaligon, recently quit the Lib Dems over the government's Benefit changes, it'll be interesting to see if that plays out at all in people's voting intentions.
There have been a series of boundary changes here and the names of the divisions may not correspond exactly with the 2009 divisions of the same name.
Since the days of the late, great Liberal MP, Devid Penhaligon, Truro has been a bastion for the Liberal Democrats with the old traditional Labour voting area swinging strongly to them. With the retirement of the Mr Penhaligon's successor, Matthew Taylor, in 2010, the Truro and Falmouth constituence fell the the Conservatives by 435 votes. The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that Labour has shown signs of rebuilding a base in Truro in two byelections in the city's Boscawen ward, very much at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. This election is important for the Liberal Democrats to gauge how they now stand with such an unpopular coalition in Westminster. Mr Penhaligon died in a road accident in 1987 and politics is much sadder for it. His cousin, actress Susan Penhaligon, recently quit the Lib Dems over the government's Benefit changes, it'll be interesting to see if that plays out at all in people's voting intentions.
There have been a series of boundary changes here and the names of the divisions may not correspond exactly with the 2009 divisions of the same name.
Truro Boscawen
As if to prove my last point, this division is being defended by Independent Councillor Bert Biscoe who presently represents the Moresk division. Councillor Biscoe was elected to the old county council in 1997,. He is the Cabinet member for Transportation, Highways and Environment and campaigns for an improved rail network in Cornwall.
For the Liberal Democrats, city councillor Maurice Vella is running; an independent architecture and planning professional, Mr Vella has strong views on planning issues in the City of Truro. A former district councillor when Moresk was a two seat-ward, he will have a battle on his hands to unseat Cllr Biscoe as the Lib Dems do not tend to top the poll here.
For the Conservatives, local restaurant manager, Noel Krishnan is hoping to be the first black Conservative elected to Cornwall Council. I feel that the the Conservatives are likely to be caught between the two former district councillors here.
I am surprised that there is no candidate from Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, given that they polled a decent 153 votes in the town council byelection the Moresk Ward.
Labour are represented by Susan Street who will be pleased that MK-PC aren't standing as there is a good chance to build up the Labour position here, not least that in coming third in the 2010 byelection, they still managed to more than double their actual number or votes cast in the old division in 2009, even though the turnout was less than 17%. Labour is showing strong signs of recovery in Truro and this should be a decent enough result for them if they can avoid being squeezed.
For the Green Party, this year's mayor, Lindsay Southcombe is hoping to put in a good showing to make this election even more interesting.
Prediction: Independent hold
As if to prove my last point, this division is being defended by Independent Councillor Bert Biscoe who presently represents the Moresk division. Councillor Biscoe was elected to the old county council in 1997,. He is the Cabinet member for Transportation, Highways and Environment and campaigns for an improved rail network in Cornwall.
For the Liberal Democrats, city councillor Maurice Vella is running; an independent architecture and planning professional, Mr Vella has strong views on planning issues in the City of Truro. A former district councillor when Moresk was a two seat-ward, he will have a battle on his hands to unseat Cllr Biscoe as the Lib Dems do not tend to top the poll here.
For the Conservatives, local restaurant manager, Noel Krishnan is hoping to be the first black Conservative elected to Cornwall Council. I feel that the the Conservatives are likely to be caught between the two former district councillors here.
I am surprised that there is no candidate from Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, given that they polled a decent 153 votes in the town council byelection the Moresk Ward.
Labour are represented by Susan Street who will be pleased that MK-PC aren't standing as there is a good chance to build up the Labour position here, not least that in coming third in the 2010 byelection, they still managed to more than double their actual number or votes cast in the old division in 2009, even though the turnout was less than 17%. Labour is showing strong signs of recovery in Truro and this should be a decent enough result for them if they can avoid being squeezed.
For the Green Party, this year's mayor, Lindsay Southcombe is hoping to put in a good showing to make this election even more interesting.
Prediction: Independent hold
Truro Redannick
Defending this seat is the present councillor for the old Boscawen division, former mayor Rob Nolan. Councillor Nolan had a real battle on his hands in 2009, winning with a majority of 66 votes over the Conservative candidate, Lorrie Eathorne-Gibbons.
City councillor and former mayor, Ms Eathorne Gibbons is back this year hoping that the two byelection victories that the Conservatives have achieved in the city council's Boscawen ward will be repeated here. In the 2012 byelection, the Conservatives achieved 48% of the vote whilst the Liberal Democrats vote fell to just over 27%. Whilst the turnout was just over 20%, it was a very encouraging result for the Tories and worrying for the Liberal Democrats, not least because of the Labour vote. Ms Eathorne-Gibbons is used to being on the wrong side of close results, she failed to take a seat by 21 votes on the old district council.
For Labour, Pamela Atherton is hoping to repeat, or better, the two byelection results; bizarrely, Labour's Hanna Toms received 246 votes at both elections and the Lib Dems failed to squeeze the vote at the second one, being only 27 votes ahead of Labour. Labour received over 24.6% of the vote and if Ms Atherton repeats this, bearing in mind that Labour only managed 288 votes in the whole of the city, plus Threemilestone, in 2009, it will be a very good result indeed. Ms Atherton is the mother of former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton, standing in Falmouth Smithick.
Returning for the Green Party is Howard Newlove, who managed 10.6% of the vote last time and will be hoping not to be squeezed in the battle for the top spot.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, Lance Dyer, who held the party's vote in the first of the Boscawen byelections, will be hoping that he can do the same, or better, this time. Given that Labour leap-frogged him then, I suspect he will be happy not to suffer a squeeze from one of the other parties.
Having said everything, Cllr Nolan is a very well-known and well-liked figure in the city and will be looking to hold on to a personal vote. Personal votes matter in Truro, so it could make a difference. All in all though, Labour seems unlikely to see its vote be completely squeezed back to 2009's 4.5% and I think the good councillor will be worried about them closing the gap. He must hope the protest vote was exercised at the byelections. If Labour were to gain a seat in Truro, this would probably be the one, but I wouldn't be predicting that at all. For the Conservatives, the shenanigans in County Hall can't help and the unpopularity of the Westminster government will not be welcome, for either of the two coalition parties.
Prediction: Erm....
Defending this seat is the present councillor for the old Boscawen division, former mayor Rob Nolan. Councillor Nolan had a real battle on his hands in 2009, winning with a majority of 66 votes over the Conservative candidate, Lorrie Eathorne-Gibbons.
City councillor and former mayor, Ms Eathorne Gibbons is back this year hoping that the two byelection victories that the Conservatives have achieved in the city council's Boscawen ward will be repeated here. In the 2012 byelection, the Conservatives achieved 48% of the vote whilst the Liberal Democrats vote fell to just over 27%. Whilst the turnout was just over 20%, it was a very encouraging result for the Tories and worrying for the Liberal Democrats, not least because of the Labour vote. Ms Eathorne-Gibbons is used to being on the wrong side of close results, she failed to take a seat by 21 votes on the old district council.
For Labour, Pamela Atherton is hoping to repeat, or better, the two byelection results; bizarrely, Labour's Hanna Toms received 246 votes at both elections and the Lib Dems failed to squeeze the vote at the second one, being only 27 votes ahead of Labour. Labour received over 24.6% of the vote and if Ms Atherton repeats this, bearing in mind that Labour only managed 288 votes in the whole of the city, plus Threemilestone, in 2009, it will be a very good result indeed. Ms Atherton is the mother of former Falmouth and Camborne MP, Candy Atherton, standing in Falmouth Smithick.
Returning for the Green Party is Howard Newlove, who managed 10.6% of the vote last time and will be hoping not to be squeezed in the battle for the top spot.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, Lance Dyer, who held the party's vote in the first of the Boscawen byelections, will be hoping that he can do the same, or better, this time. Given that Labour leap-frogged him then, I suspect he will be happy not to suffer a squeeze from one of the other parties.
Having said everything, Cllr Nolan is a very well-known and well-liked figure in the city and will be looking to hold on to a personal vote. Personal votes matter in Truro, so it could make a difference. All in all though, Labour seems unlikely to see its vote be completely squeezed back to 2009's 4.5% and I think the good councillor will be worried about them closing the gap. He must hope the protest vote was exercised at the byelections. If Labour were to gain a seat in Truro, this would probably be the one, but I wouldn't be predicting that at all. For the Conservatives, the shenanigans in County Hall can't help and the unpopularity of the Westminster government will not be welcome, for either of the two coalition parties.
Prediction: Erm....
Truro Tregolls
This division is equivalent to the one held won by the Liberal Democrat, Doris Ansari, in 2009. This time, former Cornwall County Council leader, Councillor Ansari is not standing and Ros Cox is taking her place for the party. Defeated in 2009 by Cllr Bert Biscoe in the old Moresk division, former district councillor, and present city councillor, Cox will hope to be in County Hall come 3rd May. Conservative candidate Judy Cresswell will be pushing to close the gap but will be hampered by the entrance of a UKIP candidate into the race.
UKIP's Paul Minihan is unlikely to be more of a spoiler here and it may well put the seat beyond Ms Cresswell, even if she hopes that Labour or the Greens can take enough votes off the Lib Dems to bring the seat into play for the Tories.
In third place last time was Mebyon Kernow with its candidate, Loic Rich, taking 21.5% of the vote. Since then, actor, musician, and screenwriter Mr Rich has been on a bit of a political odyssey, resigning from the party to join the Conservatives and now standing as an Independent. I suspect he won't be able to hold onto the votes he received last time as an MK candidate, not least as the Greens and Labour will be battling for the centre-left vote.
For the Greens, who got 7.9% of the vote last time, Godfrey Allen is standing and will hope to take advantage of the unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats nationally to reap votes, but he cannot hope to win here.
Labour have Margaret George, secretary of Truro and Falmouth Amnesty International, hoping to get the party back to the high teens of percentage vote share at least.
To hold this division, Ms Cox needs to keep her party's vote in the mid-thirties of percentage (39% last time), and she will be okay.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.
Truro Trehaverne
In 2009, the Trehaverne division was won by Fiona Ferguson with 33% of the vote and by only 6 votes over Independent, Sarah Trevail. Only 34 votes behind her, on 30.2% of the vote, was Liberal Democrat candidate Tom Stubbs. Councillor Fergusuon was the Conservative Goup leader on the council who dramatically resigned from the Cabinet over the issue of "lie detector tests" on those people claiming single person's council tax discount.
This is going to be a really interesting election as Councillor Ferguson is defending herself against a different Independent this time, former 2010 Labour parliamentary candidate for Truro and Falmouth (she also stood for the party in Truro and St Austell in 2005), Dr Charlotte MacKenzie. It is sad for both Dr MacKenzie and the Labour Party that they have fallen out, but she has continued to sit on the Truro City Council and to campaign on local issues. It will be interesting to see how she does.
This is going to be a really interesting election as Councillor Ferguson is defending herself against a different Independent this time, former 2010 Labour parliamentary candidate for Truro and Falmouth (she also stood for the party in Truro and St Austell in 2005), Dr Charlotte MacKenzie. It is sad for both Dr MacKenzie and the Labour Party that they have fallen out, but she has continued to sit on the Truro City Council and to campaign on local issues. It will be interesting to see how she does.
For the Liberal Democrats, city councillor Peter Congdon will hope to pick up the few votes needed from last time to snatch the seat and will hope that he doesn't lose votes to Labour, the Greens or Dr MacKenzie.
The Green candidate is Steve Angove but I think he will struggle to do too well here in a very close race.
For Labour, Richard Lees should hope to see a good vote increase although he will be somewhat uneasy about the presence of former leading Labour light, Dr MacKenzie, being amongst his opposition.
Messing things up a bit more is UKIP's Michael Inglefield, a local B&B owner. He will make life harder for all candidates, but most especially Cllr Ferguson.
The big questions are: who gets the Independent vote from last time and will the Liberal Democrat vote grow of fall?
Prediction: No idea
Cornwall Council elections: Kerrier
Breage, Germoe and Sithney
Breage is a civil parish and village and the village is three miles west of Helston. In 2001, the population was 2,375. Germoe is a village and civil parish. Germoe village, the parish's main settlement is about five miles west of Helston and seven miles east of Penzance. In 2001, the population was 508. Sithney is a small village and civil parish a short distance from Helston.
At the last elections, the Breage division was close run race with Independent, John Keeling, winning with only 31.4% of the vote and a majority of 36 over the Conservative, Linda Taylor. The Liberal Democrats weren't too far behind and UKIP managed 16.7%.
Now a Conservative candidate, Councillor Keeling finds himself in a straight fight with UKIP, with the Lib Dems not nominating a candidate and no Independent. The UKIP candidate, Michael Kevin Mahon, who ran last time, will hope that this gives him the opportunity to claim the anti-Tory vote protest vote and run Councillor Keeling close, whether many of the Lib Dem and other centre-left inclined would use that opportunity is open to question. They may not turn out to vote. I suspect he would have had more chance in a more divided field. Mr Mahon has been a parliamentary candidate for UKIP, running in Falmouth and Camborne in 2005, and stood for the Breage and Crowan ward of the district council in 2007.
Mr Keeling was a district councillor for several years and will hope that his service will see him safely home.
Prediction: Conservative Gain (but a hold for Cllr Keeling).
Camborne
Camborne is a town and civil parish in west Cornwall, it is at the western edge of a conurbation comprising Camborne, Pool and Redruth. The population of Camborne was 20,010 at the 2001 census. By 2007 the population had grown to 22,500. The population of the Camborne-Redruth urban area, which includes Pool and Illogan and satellite villages, is 39,937 making it the largest conurbation in Cornwall. The following settlements are in the civil parish: Barripper, Beacon, Bolenowe, Boswyn, Carwynnen, Coombe, Croft Mitchell, Higher Condurrow, Kehelland, Killivose, Menadarva, Nancemellin, Pengegon, Penponds, Reskadinnick, Rosewarne, Roskear Croft, Stennack, Tolcarne, Treslothan, Treswithian, Treswithian Downs and Troon. Camborne is located in what was formerly one of the richest tin mining areas in the world and was once the home to the Camborne School of Mines. The School of Mines moved from the centre of Camborne to Trevenson, Pool and is now a specialist department of the University of Exeter, based at Tremough Campus.
The Boundary Commission accepted the need to keep the Camborne divisions within Camborne town itaelf and these are the results:
Camborne Pendarves
An open seat with the Conservative Councillor David Biggs not defending the seat. Pendarves promised to be, like the other Camborne divisions, very interesting.
The Liberal Democrats are not fielding a candidate, indeed, they only have a candidate in Trelothan which, given they were the major party here a few years ago, is a stunning reversal. In the Camborne West division, Cllr Biggs managed to win with only 34.2% of the vote, but with a comfortable lead over the other parties due to a very split vote. David Atherfold has picked up the Conservative banner and will be hoping that the Tory vote will manage to be stable whilst the others fight amongst themselves.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, John Ellery Gillingham is standing and will be hoping to close the gap on Mr Atherfold, but signs are not too good with the by elections for County and Town council seats showing theMK-PC vote slipping back as Labour re-establishes itself in the town. With no Liberal Democrat candidate, Mr Gillingham will hope to reap the votes but is not the only show in town.
The other show is Labour who, with its candidate, Trevor Chalker, will be hoping to mirror the success of Jude Robinson in the Camborne North by election and Robert Webber in the Camborne South town by election. On the face of it, Labour, with its vote collapsing in 2009, got its best vote in the old Camborne West division and Mr Chalker will have a chance of coming from behind and, with the help of former MK-PC and Lib Dem votes, taking this seat.
For UKIP, Harry Blakeley will hope that the west country sympathy with his party will translate into a good result in the election, much to the chagrin of Mr Atherfold.
There is no Independent this time so those votes from 2009 are also going to be crucial on election day. In theory, any candidate could win this seat and, if the Tories due to national and local unpopularity slip votes to the other parties, it could go either way and I am sure that it is the ex-Lib Dem votes that will prove decisive.
Prediction: Con hold - or Labour gain
Camborne Roskear
Won by Conservative Councillor Bill Jenkin in 2009 with a comfortable, for this area, 36.9% of the vote, the challengers for this seat were the Liberal Democrats with 19.4%. It is amazing then that they have no candidate this time. With the resignation of Independent Councillor Bill Jenkin, who was subsequently found guilty of sexual and common assault, a by election was called and won by former Labour Parliamentary Candidate for Camborne and Redruth, Jude Robinson, who became the only Labour member of Cornwall Council, having come from fifth place in 2009, with a shockingly low 10.7% (for this area) of the vote.
Just defeated in the by election were the Conservatives (27 votes behind) and their candidate, current deputy mayor Paul White, will see himself as in poll position to regain the seat on 2nd May. I think this is unlikely as the missing Lib Dem votes are more likely to go Labour's way, now they can see the party can win, than anybody elses.
MK-PC's candidate, John Rowe, returns but must realise that he is out of the race given that the MK-PC vote collapsed in the by election and is unlikely to return now when it is a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories.
UKIP have a dog in this fight with Tess Hulland and she might well appeal to the cussedness of Camborne voters and also gain on the national UKIP surge, but I see here as hurting the Conservatives more than anybody else.
Prediction: Labour gain (hold after the by election)
Camborne Trelowarren
Based on the old Central division, Conservative John Stoneman won this seat with 33.4% of the vote and by only 3 votes over the Liberal Democrat's John Pope, who had been a sitting County Councillor. So it again leaves me stunned that the Lib Dems have failed to put up a candidate at this election, in a seat that they have pretty much dominated in recent years.
This will give a great boost to Zoe Fox, the returning candidate for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, as she will see herself as the most likely person to gain the mass of Liberal Democrat votes, Only 11% behind last time (140 votes) she has to be the favourite to overtake the Conservatives. The success of Loveday Jenkins in the nearby Wendron by election will have boosted Ms Fox
Councillor Stoneman is a former district councillor and a town councillor so knows his area well and will be working to get out the vote. He will again be left worried by the UKIP with their candidate, Rob Laity. If Mr Laity picks up a strong mid-teens vote, Cllr Stoneman will be fighting and uphill battle.
For Labour, town councillor Adam Crickett will be hoping to emulate the success of the by election campaigns of the last couple of years and come from the back to take the seat. To do this, he will need to nip the campaign of Ms Fox in the bud and pick up the lion's share of the Lib Dem vote.
Also in the fray is the Green Party's David Everett, also a town councillor. He helps at the Shelter Box shop in the town centre and seems like an all round nice guy - but I think he will be an also-ran here.
I think it will be difficult for Councillor Stoneman to hold this division, given the unpopularity of the government, the presence of UKIP and a very strong threat from the Greens and Labour, the question is, who will win here?
Prediction: Too close to call
Camborne Treslothan
In the old Troon and Beacon division, Conservative candidate Morwenna Williams squeaked home by 41 voters over a tied in second place Anna Pascoe (Liberal Democrat) and Alan Sanders (Mebyon Kernow). With only 31.6% of the vote, she clearly owed her victory to a divided opposition who, with Labour, had a centre-left vote of 68.4%. I admire her for struggling on as I really cannot see her holding this seat.
Her slim hope lies in the fact that another 3 candidates have entered the race - a Green, an Independent and UKIP. I think it is the latter that actually spells doom for Councillor Williams as, if she cannot keep her vote above 28%, I think it is curtains and she had better start measuring and sorting out the colour scheme.
Green candidate and town councillor, Jacqueline Merrick, is unlikely to register too large a vote, but it will not be welcome to MK-PC's returning candidate Alan Sanders, as it eats into his potential vote.
Mr Sanders has to be the favourite to win here with the Lib Dems unpopular nationally and it will be a singular disaster for his party if he doesn't - the political winds could not be fairer for him.
Hoping to stop Mr Sanders is Ms Pascoe, who will have the whole of Camborne's Liberal Democrat campaign dedicated to her victory, and that is one powerful team. A former district councillor, Ms Pascoe knows how to gain a seat and she will be fighting very hard here.
For Labour, Robert Webber will be hoping to repeat the success of the Camborne byelections and come from the back of the pack to the front. The victor in the Camborne South town council by election, he comfortably saw off MK-PC. He too could win here.
For the Independent's cause, Nicholas Heather is the candidate but I feel he might not get too much traction in what is a fevered party campaign in this division.
So, I believe Councillor Williams is unlikely to win re-election, who will take advantage?
Prediction: gain by Liberal Democrat or Labour - or Mebyon-Kernow, I just think Ms Pascoe may have the ground game.
Camborne Treswithian
Mebyon Kernow are the theoretical defenders of this ward. Camborne South was won by Mebyon Kernow's Stuart Cullimore by a tiny 20 majority from the Conservative candidate, John Herd. With only 28.4% of the vote, Councillor Cullimore was a lucky man. Sadly, he is too unwell to continue in his post which is a big blow for MK-PC. In his place is town councillor Mike Champion, who came a creditable second in the old Camborne West division in 2009. Mr Champion understands the importance of local politics and recently criticised the town council for refusing to take over the running of the city centre toilets. His campaign for the Camborne North byelection was a disaster though and went down the pan (do you see what I did there?)
The Conservative hoping to wrest the seat from MK-PC is town councillor, and former Liberal Democrat, Jeff Collins. With a large Independent vote to fight for (17.6% in 2009) and no candidate, he will hope to take these votes and appeal to the disenfranchised Liberal Democrat supporters as well. Of course, despite being in a close third place in 2009, the Liberal Democrats are not standing - strange!
For Labour, veteran campaigner Steve Richards is sure to raise the dismal vote from last time (6%) and will hope to win over former Lib Dem supporters and MK-PC voters. A win is beyond Labour here, but a good vote will help the future cause.
Just to ruin the party for Mr Collins, UKIP have a candidate in Viv Lewis. It is difficult to measure how well UKIP will do, but polls suggest its votes will come overwhelmingly from former Conservative voters, so hurting Mr Collins's hopes.
Who will win here? It is a begger to be honest.
Prediction: I honestly don't know - Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall hold?
Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day
Carharrack is a civil parish and village, situated two miles east of Redruth in a former mining area.
The parish is of a rural/industrial character and is comparatively small in area. It is bounded to the north and northwest by St Day parish, to the east and southeast by Gwennap parish, and to the southwest and west by Lanner parish. Until 1985, Carharrack was part of the parish of Gwennap but it became a civil parish in its own right with the first meeting of Carharrack Parish Council on 28 May 1985.
Gwennap is a village and civil parish, about five miles southeast of Redruth.
In the 18th and early 19th centuries Gwennap parish was the richest copper mining district in Cornwall and was called the "richest square mile in the Old World". It is the location of the Great County Adit, and once-famous mines such as Consolidated Mines, Poldice mine and Wheal Busy. Today it forms part of area A6i (the Gwennap Mining District) of the Cornwall and West Devon Mining Landscape World Heritage Site.
St Day is a civil parish and village, situated between the village of Chacewater and the town of Redruth. St Day is located in a former mining area (which included Poldice, Tolcarne, Todpool, Creegbrawse and Crofthandy) and St Day accrued considerable wealth from mining. The parish is at the heart of the Cornwall and West Devon Mining Landscape (a World Heritage Site) which also includes St Agnes, Chapel Porth and Porthtowan.
There has been a significant change to this division, with Lanner civil parish now joined with Stithian, it looks more like the ward represented by sitting Independent Councillor Mark Kaszmarek on the old district council. Cllr Kaszmarek has been a district and county councillor here for a long time and won very clearly in 2009 with 59%, his majority being a stonking 566. I don't know if it would have been quite as high on these boundaries but he is clearly the front-runner.
There are no Conservative or Liberal Democrat challengers this year which, given they have had councillors in this area in recent years, is fairly surprising. Last time, Cllr Kascmarek's closest rival was another Independent, John Thomas, who is standing in the new Lanner and Stithians division.
A former South Crofty Miner, Cllr Kaszmarek knows his area well and will realise the highs and lows of life, not least when exercising power. He has found himself in a battle with Lanner Parish Council over redevelopment plans for housing on the old Tresavean Mine complex. As the Cabinet Member for Housing and Planning, the nightmare of realpolitik has hit the good councillor in his own backyard (almost literally).
For the Green Party, Chris Garbutt will be hoping to represent the concerns about protecting the landscape and encouraging appropriate sustainable development in the area, their best hope is probably to come a decent second. They will undoubtedly be targeting Cllr Kaszmarek's senior membership of the local coalition in Truro, where, in 2012, he announced housing development over the next 20 years (48,000 homes) saying: “There will definitely be greenfield sites used as there is no option in certain circumstances,”
Labour's Rosanna Phillips will be determined to regain lost votes here and to challenge Cllr Kaszmarek over his senior role as a Cabinet Minister in the County Hall coalition with the Tories. A former candidate, she will have her own target in mind.
For UKIP, their Camborne and Redruth secretary, Dave Parker, is hoping to stake a claim to the affections of the electorate. I can't see him coming too close to winning though.
Prediction: Independent hold.
The Boundary Commissions recommendations were to base the three divisions (Four Lanes, Pool and Tehidy, and Illogan) within the boundaries of the two parishes.
Four Lanes
Based, with Pool and Tehidy division, in Carn Brae civil parish, between Camborne and Redruth. An area which includes old mining communties.
Defending the division is Conservative Councillor Peter Sheppard elected in the then Carn Brae North division with 38.7% of the vote, with the Liberal Democrats 118 votes behind on 28.2%. Candy Atherton, former Labour MP for Falmouth and Camborne came third for her party with 22.6% of the vote.
As already has been seen, the Liberal Democrats have abandoned much of the area in election terms and are not fielding a candidate this time, which will be welcome news to several candidates in this race.
For Cllr Sheppard, this was always destined to be a tough defence as it is not a natural seat for the Tories and with their 2009 popularity long gone, Labour will be hoping to bounce back and grab this seat.
For Labour, Matthew Brown will be confident of taking advantage of the lack of Liberal Democrat opposition. With Labour concentrating its efforts across this area, and the Liberal Democrats obviously targeting in very few places, it will be hard for Mr Brown but he must hope to get close as winning here would be a real sign of Labour revival.
Also looking to take advantage of the Liberal Democrat non-appearance is former district councillor, town councillor Paul Holmes, a member of the Liberal Party (those that did not merge with the Social Democrats) who came fairly close to winning in the Illogan division in 2009. As the only Liberal Party candidate in the county, Mr Holmes will doubtless have a good campaign on the go and he is a real threat to Cllr Shepherd.
For Mebyon Kernow-PC, town councillor Chris Lawrence will be hoping to be the natural candidate of those on the centre-left, a very crowded place in this division. MK did once have a district councillor in this area but I am not convinced that Mr Lawrence will take the winner's podium here.
It would all look fairly promising so far for Cllr Shepherd if it wasn't for UKIP's Derek Elliott threatening to take votes from the right. Not a particularly local man, I do not know how hard he will be campaigning, but any votes lost to him just adds to the pressure on the Tory.
I just can't see Cllr Sheppard holding on here and he could probably only win with a really divided vote and he with less than 30% of the vote.
If Labour won here, they'd be on the way to double figures at County Hall, I reckon it might be beyond them, not least due to other target seats.
Prediction: Liberal gain
Illogan
Illogan is a village and civil parish , two miles northwest of Redruth. Originally a rural area supporting itself by farming and agriculture, Illogan shared in the general leap into prosperity brought about by the mining boom, which was experienced by the whole Camborne-Redruth area; since then, times and the economic circumastance have changed for the worst. In 2001, the census recorded a population of 5,585.
The defending candidate is Conservative Councillor Terry Wilkins, who was elected with only 32.8% of the vote but a majority of a reasonable sounding 89 votes over former Liberal councillor Paul Holmes (25.6%). The third-placed Independent candidate, Graham Ford, was only 95 votes behind (25.1%).
With Mr Holmes standing in Four Lanes and no Liberal Party candidate, the Liberal Democrats candidate, former district councillor David Ekinsmyth, will see himself as the main challenger. In the old division, the Lib Dems only managed 9.9% of the vote but if they can take Mr Holmes's and Mr Ford's vote, they might well be in with a chance. Added to this, parish councillor Ekinsmyth will surely gain from the fact that there are very few Liberal Democrats standing in the area and he will have a good team around him.
Another hoping to gain from the lack of a Liberal Party candidate will be Labour's Linda Moore; Labour would argue that Mr Holmes's votes were more from Labour people and, given the area, they may have a point, but in the battle to best the Conservative, perception is everything.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall, Stephen Richardson will hope to soak up the centre-left vote as well and the party has some hope here as he won an Illogan parish council by election in 2010 by 187 to 77 votes for Labour in a two horse race. A very small turnout just a month after the General Election, but it may well help him
The divided vote last time was a real bonus for Cllr Wilkins and he would hope to gain from it again. His problem is that the Independent from last time, Mr Ford, was formerly a Liberal Democrat district councillor and his voters would most likely not be natural Tory supporters, especially at this time of national unpopularity for the party. Another problem for him is the UKIP candidate, Don Armstrong, who is likely to undermine Cllr Wilkins's vote base.
Mr Richardson received a bit of a boost in receiving the endorsement of former Lib Dem district, county and town councillor, Terry Rowe. It is going to be a tough fight and could be a three horse (Con/LD/MK-PC) squeaker.
Prediction: Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall gain (but don't write off the Lib Dems)
Pool and Tehidy
Breage is a civil parish and village and the village is three miles west of Helston. In 2001, the population was 2,375. Germoe is a village and civil parish. Germoe village, the parish's main settlement is about five miles west of Helston and seven miles east of Penzance. In 2001, the population was 508. Sithney is a small village and civil parish a short distance from Helston.
At the last elections, the Breage division was close run race with Independent, John Keeling, winning with only 31.4% of the vote and a majority of 36 over the Conservative, Linda Taylor. The Liberal Democrats weren't too far behind and UKIP managed 16.7%.
Now a Conservative candidate, Councillor Keeling finds himself in a straight fight with UKIP, with the Lib Dems not nominating a candidate and no Independent. The UKIP candidate, Michael Kevin Mahon, who ran last time, will hope that this gives him the opportunity to claim the anti-Tory vote protest vote and run Councillor Keeling close, whether many of the Lib Dem and other centre-left inclined would use that opportunity is open to question. They may not turn out to vote. I suspect he would have had more chance in a more divided field. Mr Mahon has been a parliamentary candidate for UKIP, running in Falmouth and Camborne in 2005, and stood for the Breage and Crowan ward of the district council in 2007.
Mr Keeling was a district councillor for several years and will hope that his service will see him safely home.
Prediction: Conservative Gain (but a hold for Cllr Keeling).
Camborne
Camborne is a town and civil parish in west Cornwall, it is at the western edge of a conurbation comprising Camborne, Pool and Redruth. The population of Camborne was 20,010 at the 2001 census. By 2007 the population had grown to 22,500. The population of the Camborne-Redruth urban area, which includes Pool and Illogan and satellite villages, is 39,937 making it the largest conurbation in Cornwall. The following settlements are in the civil parish: Barripper, Beacon, Bolenowe, Boswyn, Carwynnen, Coombe, Croft Mitchell, Higher Condurrow, Kehelland, Killivose, Menadarva, Nancemellin, Pengegon, Penponds, Reskadinnick, Rosewarne, Roskear Croft, Stennack, Tolcarne, Treslothan, Treswithian, Treswithian Downs and Troon. Camborne is located in what was formerly one of the richest tin mining areas in the world and was once the home to the Camborne School of Mines. The School of Mines moved from the centre of Camborne to Trevenson, Pool and is now a specialist department of the University of Exeter, based at Tremough Campus.
The Boundary Commission accepted the need to keep the Camborne divisions within Camborne town itaelf and these are the results:
Camborne Pendarves
An open seat with the Conservative Councillor David Biggs not defending the seat. Pendarves promised to be, like the other Camborne divisions, very interesting.
The Liberal Democrats are not fielding a candidate, indeed, they only have a candidate in Trelothan which, given they were the major party here a few years ago, is a stunning reversal. In the Camborne West division, Cllr Biggs managed to win with only 34.2% of the vote, but with a comfortable lead over the other parties due to a very split vote. David Atherfold has picked up the Conservative banner and will be hoping that the Tory vote will manage to be stable whilst the others fight amongst themselves.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, John Ellery Gillingham is standing and will be hoping to close the gap on Mr Atherfold, but signs are not too good with the by elections for County and Town council seats showing theMK-PC vote slipping back as Labour re-establishes itself in the town. With no Liberal Democrat candidate, Mr Gillingham will hope to reap the votes but is not the only show in town.
The other show is Labour who, with its candidate, Trevor Chalker, will be hoping to mirror the success of Jude Robinson in the Camborne North by election and Robert Webber in the Camborne South town by election. On the face of it, Labour, with its vote collapsing in 2009, got its best vote in the old Camborne West division and Mr Chalker will have a chance of coming from behind and, with the help of former MK-PC and Lib Dem votes, taking this seat.
For UKIP, Harry Blakeley will hope that the west country sympathy with his party will translate into a good result in the election, much to the chagrin of Mr Atherfold.
There is no Independent this time so those votes from 2009 are also going to be crucial on election day. In theory, any candidate could win this seat and, if the Tories due to national and local unpopularity slip votes to the other parties, it could go either way and I am sure that it is the ex-Lib Dem votes that will prove decisive.
Prediction: Con hold - or Labour gain
Camborne Roskear
Won by Conservative Councillor Bill Jenkin in 2009 with a comfortable, for this area, 36.9% of the vote, the challengers for this seat were the Liberal Democrats with 19.4%. It is amazing then that they have no candidate this time. With the resignation of Independent Councillor Bill Jenkin, who was subsequently found guilty of sexual and common assault, a by election was called and won by former Labour Parliamentary Candidate for Camborne and Redruth, Jude Robinson, who became the only Labour member of Cornwall Council, having come from fifth place in 2009, with a shockingly low 10.7% (for this area) of the vote.
Just defeated in the by election were the Conservatives (27 votes behind) and their candidate, current deputy mayor Paul White, will see himself as in poll position to regain the seat on 2nd May. I think this is unlikely as the missing Lib Dem votes are more likely to go Labour's way, now they can see the party can win, than anybody elses.
MK-PC's candidate, John Rowe, returns but must realise that he is out of the race given that the MK-PC vote collapsed in the by election and is unlikely to return now when it is a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories.
UKIP have a dog in this fight with Tess Hulland and she might well appeal to the cussedness of Camborne voters and also gain on the national UKIP surge, but I see here as hurting the Conservatives more than anybody else.
Prediction: Labour gain (hold after the by election)
Camborne Trelowarren
Based on the old Central division, Conservative John Stoneman won this seat with 33.4% of the vote and by only 3 votes over the Liberal Democrat's John Pope, who had been a sitting County Councillor. So it again leaves me stunned that the Lib Dems have failed to put up a candidate at this election, in a seat that they have pretty much dominated in recent years.
This will give a great boost to Zoe Fox, the returning candidate for Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall, as she will see herself as the most likely person to gain the mass of Liberal Democrat votes, Only 11% behind last time (140 votes) she has to be the favourite to overtake the Conservatives. The success of Loveday Jenkins in the nearby Wendron by election will have boosted Ms Fox
Councillor Stoneman is a former district councillor and a town councillor so knows his area well and will be working to get out the vote. He will again be left worried by the UKIP with their candidate, Rob Laity. If Mr Laity picks up a strong mid-teens vote, Cllr Stoneman will be fighting and uphill battle.
For Labour, town councillor Adam Crickett will be hoping to emulate the success of the by election campaigns of the last couple of years and come from the back to take the seat. To do this, he will need to nip the campaign of Ms Fox in the bud and pick up the lion's share of the Lib Dem vote.
Also in the fray is the Green Party's David Everett, also a town councillor. He helps at the Shelter Box shop in the town centre and seems like an all round nice guy - but I think he will be an also-ran here.
I think it will be difficult for Councillor Stoneman to hold this division, given the unpopularity of the government, the presence of UKIP and a very strong threat from the Greens and Labour, the question is, who will win here?
Prediction: Too close to call
Camborne Treslothan
In the old Troon and Beacon division, Conservative candidate Morwenna Williams squeaked home by 41 voters over a tied in second place Anna Pascoe (Liberal Democrat) and Alan Sanders (Mebyon Kernow). With only 31.6% of the vote, she clearly owed her victory to a divided opposition who, with Labour, had a centre-left vote of 68.4%. I admire her for struggling on as I really cannot see her holding this seat.
Her slim hope lies in the fact that another 3 candidates have entered the race - a Green, an Independent and UKIP. I think it is the latter that actually spells doom for Councillor Williams as, if she cannot keep her vote above 28%, I think it is curtains and she had better start measuring and sorting out the colour scheme.
Green candidate and town councillor, Jacqueline Merrick, is unlikely to register too large a vote, but it will not be welcome to MK-PC's returning candidate Alan Sanders, as it eats into his potential vote.
Mr Sanders has to be the favourite to win here with the Lib Dems unpopular nationally and it will be a singular disaster for his party if he doesn't - the political winds could not be fairer for him.
Hoping to stop Mr Sanders is Ms Pascoe, who will have the whole of Camborne's Liberal Democrat campaign dedicated to her victory, and that is one powerful team. A former district councillor, Ms Pascoe knows how to gain a seat and she will be fighting very hard here.
For Labour, Robert Webber will be hoping to repeat the success of the Camborne byelections and come from the back of the pack to the front. The victor in the Camborne South town council by election, he comfortably saw off MK-PC. He too could win here.
For the Independent's cause, Nicholas Heather is the candidate but I feel he might not get too much traction in what is a fevered party campaign in this division.
So, I believe Councillor Williams is unlikely to win re-election, who will take advantage?
Prediction: gain by Liberal Democrat or Labour - or Mebyon-Kernow, I just think Ms Pascoe may have the ground game.
Camborne Treswithian
Mebyon Kernow are the theoretical defenders of this ward. Camborne South was won by Mebyon Kernow's Stuart Cullimore by a tiny 20 majority from the Conservative candidate, John Herd. With only 28.4% of the vote, Councillor Cullimore was a lucky man. Sadly, he is too unwell to continue in his post which is a big blow for MK-PC. In his place is town councillor Mike Champion, who came a creditable second in the old Camborne West division in 2009. Mr Champion understands the importance of local politics and recently criticised the town council for refusing to take over the running of the city centre toilets. His campaign for the Camborne North byelection was a disaster though and went down the pan (do you see what I did there?)
The Conservative hoping to wrest the seat from MK-PC is town councillor, and former Liberal Democrat, Jeff Collins. With a large Independent vote to fight for (17.6% in 2009) and no candidate, he will hope to take these votes and appeal to the disenfranchised Liberal Democrat supporters as well. Of course, despite being in a close third place in 2009, the Liberal Democrats are not standing - strange!
For Labour, veteran campaigner Steve Richards is sure to raise the dismal vote from last time (6%) and will hope to win over former Lib Dem supporters and MK-PC voters. A win is beyond Labour here, but a good vote will help the future cause.
Just to ruin the party for Mr Collins, UKIP have a candidate in Viv Lewis. It is difficult to measure how well UKIP will do, but polls suggest its votes will come overwhelmingly from former Conservative voters, so hurting Mr Collins's hopes.
Who will win here? It is a begger to be honest.
Prediction: I honestly don't know - Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall hold?
Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day
Carharrack is a civil parish and village, situated two miles east of Redruth in a former mining area.
The parish is of a rural/industrial character and is comparatively small in area. It is bounded to the north and northwest by St Day parish, to the east and southeast by Gwennap parish, and to the southwest and west by Lanner parish. Until 1985, Carharrack was part of the parish of Gwennap but it became a civil parish in its own right with the first meeting of Carharrack Parish Council on 28 May 1985.
Gwennap is a village and civil parish, about five miles southeast of Redruth.
In the 18th and early 19th centuries Gwennap parish was the richest copper mining district in Cornwall and was called the "richest square mile in the Old World". It is the location of the Great County Adit, and once-famous mines such as Consolidated Mines, Poldice mine and Wheal Busy. Today it forms part of area A6i (the Gwennap Mining District) of the Cornwall and West Devon Mining Landscape World Heritage Site.
St Day is a civil parish and village, situated between the village of Chacewater and the town of Redruth. St Day is located in a former mining area (which included Poldice, Tolcarne, Todpool, Creegbrawse and Crofthandy) and St Day accrued considerable wealth from mining. The parish is at the heart of the Cornwall and West Devon Mining Landscape (a World Heritage Site) which also includes St Agnes, Chapel Porth and Porthtowan.
There has been a significant change to this division, with Lanner civil parish now joined with Stithian, it looks more like the ward represented by sitting Independent Councillor Mark Kaszmarek on the old district council. Cllr Kaszmarek has been a district and county councillor here for a long time and won very clearly in 2009 with 59%, his majority being a stonking 566. I don't know if it would have been quite as high on these boundaries but he is clearly the front-runner.
There are no Conservative or Liberal Democrat challengers this year which, given they have had councillors in this area in recent years, is fairly surprising. Last time, Cllr Kascmarek's closest rival was another Independent, John Thomas, who is standing in the new Lanner and Stithians division.
A former South Crofty Miner, Cllr Kaszmarek knows his area well and will realise the highs and lows of life, not least when exercising power. He has found himself in a battle with Lanner Parish Council over redevelopment plans for housing on the old Tresavean Mine complex. As the Cabinet Member for Housing and Planning, the nightmare of realpolitik has hit the good councillor in his own backyard (almost literally).
For the Green Party, Chris Garbutt will be hoping to represent the concerns about protecting the landscape and encouraging appropriate sustainable development in the area, their best hope is probably to come a decent second. They will undoubtedly be targeting Cllr Kaszmarek's senior membership of the local coalition in Truro, where, in 2012, he announced housing development over the next 20 years (48,000 homes) saying: “There will definitely be greenfield sites used as there is no option in certain circumstances,”
Labour's Rosanna Phillips will be determined to regain lost votes here and to challenge Cllr Kaszmarek over his senior role as a Cabinet Minister in the County Hall coalition with the Tories. A former candidate, she will have her own target in mind.
For UKIP, their Camborne and Redruth secretary, Dave Parker, is hoping to stake a claim to the affections of the electorate. I can't see him coming too close to winning though.
Prediction: Independent hold.
Constantine, Mawnan and Budock
Constantine is a village and civil parish, approximately five miles west-southwest of Falmouth. The parish of Constantine is bounded by the parishes of Mabe, Mawnan, Gweek, Wendron and the north bank of the Helford River. In 2001, it had a population of 1,705.
Mawnan is a civil parish bounded to the south by the Helford River, to the east by the sea, and to the west by Constantine parish. The population was 1,454 in the 2001 census. The main village, Mawnan Smith, is the place where the 'Owlman' has been sited - or, as the less hysterical of us would say, an Eagle Owl.
Budock, or Budock Water, is a civil parish and a village two miles west of Falmouth. According to the 2001 census Budock parish had a population of 1,399. The parish includes the smaller villages of Lamanva and Treverva and encompasses 2,400 acres of land. The hamlets of Bareppa and Mongleath are in the parish.
In 2009, Conservative Councillor Neil Hatton was elected with 71.8% of the vote and a majority over the Liberal Democrats of 925. A former district councillor, Cllr Hatton is in no danger here. The question is about who will come second which, with no Liberal Democrat candidate, is going to be between Labour and UKIP.
For Labour, Susan Webber will have a good opportunity to build up the party's position from the lowly 7.1% of 2009; with no Liberal Democrat, she will be hopeful of a decent vote share, but no more than that.
UKIP is fielding the wonderfully named Lomond Moonyean Handley, who hosts "Cornwall Calling" on TheSourcefm radio station. A cousin of famous naval diver, Lionel "Buster" Crabb, Ms Handley has previously been a Poole Borough councillor and and Dorset County Councillor. An interesting lady. She will hope to eat into the big Tory vote but her best hope is a decent second place.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
Crowan and Wendron
Crowan is a village and civil parish, about three-and-a-half miles south of Camborne. The River Hayle rises near Crowan and flows through the village. In the 2001 census, Crowan had a population of 2,375. Crowan Churchtown is not the largest settlement: there are villages at Praze-an-Beeble, Nancegollan, Bolitho and Leedstown and a hamlet at Black Rock (on the B3280 road four miles south of Camborne and five miles north of Helston. The hamlets of Carzise, Clowance Wood, Drym, Fraddam, Gwinear Downs, Horsedowns, Nine Maidens Downs, Noonvares, Paul's Green, Releath, Townshend and Tremayne are also in the parish.
Wendron is a village and civil parish, three miles north of Helston.
In 2009, the Wendron division was won by Independent Councillor Mike Clayton with only 31.7% of the vote but, due to a very divided field of challengers, he had a majority of 194 over Mebyon Kernow's Dr Loveday Jenkin. Councillor Clayton sadly passed away in September 2011. In the subsequent by election, Dr Jenkin with 36.4% of the vote ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 22.3%. Despite this increase in their vote from 2009, the Liberal Democrats are not running this time. This will no doubt add to Councillor Jenkin's re-election hopes.
Dr Jenkin is as close to party royalty as Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall gets: her parents are key figures in Mebyon Kernow's history and she was elected a party leader in 1990, in which position she served until 1997. A former European and Westminster parliamentary candidate, Dr Jenkin was also a district councillor for Crowan ward. A lecturer at Camborne School of Mines, a bard of the Gorsedh Kernow and chair of the Cornish Language Fellowship. Impressively, her children were raised speaking Cornish as their first language (I suspect she may have have been too).
Picking up the Independent mantle is David Knight but the by election does suggest that he is unlikely to win this time with voters seeming to turn away fom the Independent that time. However, there is no reason why a different Independent (given the nature of the beast) should not do better. A higher turnout may see him pass Dr Jenkin.
For the Conservatives, their byelection candidate Linda Taylor returns. She managed to increase the party vote to 19.4% (from 15.5%) and, with no UKIP candidate here and the lack of a Liberal Democrat, she will be looking at a solid second place.
Labour's Jackie Harding is stepping up here and will, like the others, hope to gain from the lack of a Lib Dem candidate. Labour were disappointing at the by election, increasing its vote only to 6.8% (from 3%), so Ms Harding will be aiming to do much better than that and get the vote into three figures and the percentage into two.
Prediction: Mebyon Kernow hold
Carn Brae and Illogan
Mawnan is a civil parish bounded to the south by the Helford River, to the east by the sea, and to the west by Constantine parish. The population was 1,454 in the 2001 census. The main village, Mawnan Smith, is the place where the 'Owlman' has been sited - or, as the less hysterical of us would say, an Eagle Owl.
Budock, or Budock Water, is a civil parish and a village two miles west of Falmouth. According to the 2001 census Budock parish had a population of 1,399. The parish includes the smaller villages of Lamanva and Treverva and encompasses 2,400 acres of land. The hamlets of Bareppa and Mongleath are in the parish.
In 2009, Conservative Councillor Neil Hatton was elected with 71.8% of the vote and a majority over the Liberal Democrats of 925. A former district councillor, Cllr Hatton is in no danger here. The question is about who will come second which, with no Liberal Democrat candidate, is going to be between Labour and UKIP.
For Labour, Susan Webber will have a good opportunity to build up the party's position from the lowly 7.1% of 2009; with no Liberal Democrat, she will be hopeful of a decent vote share, but no more than that.
UKIP is fielding the wonderfully named Lomond Moonyean Handley, who hosts "Cornwall Calling" on TheSourcefm radio station. A cousin of famous naval diver, Lionel "Buster" Crabb, Ms Handley has previously been a Poole Borough councillor and and Dorset County Councillor. An interesting lady. She will hope to eat into the big Tory vote but her best hope is a decent second place.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
Crowan and Wendron
Crowan is a village and civil parish, about three-and-a-half miles south of Camborne. The River Hayle rises near Crowan and flows through the village. In the 2001 census, Crowan had a population of 2,375. Crowan Churchtown is not the largest settlement: there are villages at Praze-an-Beeble, Nancegollan, Bolitho and Leedstown and a hamlet at Black Rock (on the B3280 road four miles south of Camborne and five miles north of Helston. The hamlets of Carzise, Clowance Wood, Drym, Fraddam, Gwinear Downs, Horsedowns, Nine Maidens Downs, Noonvares, Paul's Green, Releath, Townshend and Tremayne are also in the parish.
Wendron is a village and civil parish, three miles north of Helston.
In 2009, the Wendron division was won by Independent Councillor Mike Clayton with only 31.7% of the vote but, due to a very divided field of challengers, he had a majority of 194 over Mebyon Kernow's Dr Loveday Jenkin. Councillor Clayton sadly passed away in September 2011. In the subsequent by election, Dr Jenkin with 36.4% of the vote ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 22.3%. Despite this increase in their vote from 2009, the Liberal Democrats are not running this time. This will no doubt add to Councillor Jenkin's re-election hopes.
Dr Jenkin is as close to party royalty as Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall gets: her parents are key figures in Mebyon Kernow's history and she was elected a party leader in 1990, in which position she served until 1997. A former European and Westminster parliamentary candidate, Dr Jenkin was also a district councillor for Crowan ward. A lecturer at Camborne School of Mines, a bard of the Gorsedh Kernow and chair of the Cornish Language Fellowship. Impressively, her children were raised speaking Cornish as their first language (I suspect she may have have been too).
Picking up the Independent mantle is David Knight but the by election does suggest that he is unlikely to win this time with voters seeming to turn away fom the Independent that time. However, there is no reason why a different Independent (given the nature of the beast) should not do better. A higher turnout may see him pass Dr Jenkin.
For the Conservatives, their byelection candidate Linda Taylor returns. She managed to increase the party vote to 19.4% (from 15.5%) and, with no UKIP candidate here and the lack of a Liberal Democrat, she will be looking at a solid second place.
Labour's Jackie Harding is stepping up here and will, like the others, hope to gain from the lack of a Lib Dem candidate. Labour were disappointing at the by election, increasing its vote only to 6.8% (from 3%), so Ms Harding will be aiming to do much better than that and get the vote into three figures and the percentage into two.
Prediction: Mebyon Kernow hold
Carn Brae and Illogan
The Boundary Commissions recommendations were to base the three divisions (Four Lanes, Pool and Tehidy, and Illogan) within the boundaries of the two parishes.
Four Lanes
Based, with Pool and Tehidy division, in Carn Brae civil parish, between Camborne and Redruth. An area which includes old mining communties.
Defending the division is Conservative Councillor Peter Sheppard elected in the then Carn Brae North division with 38.7% of the vote, with the Liberal Democrats 118 votes behind on 28.2%. Candy Atherton, former Labour MP for Falmouth and Camborne came third for her party with 22.6% of the vote.
As already has been seen, the Liberal Democrats have abandoned much of the area in election terms and are not fielding a candidate this time, which will be welcome news to several candidates in this race.
For Cllr Sheppard, this was always destined to be a tough defence as it is not a natural seat for the Tories and with their 2009 popularity long gone, Labour will be hoping to bounce back and grab this seat.
For Labour, Matthew Brown will be confident of taking advantage of the lack of Liberal Democrat opposition. With Labour concentrating its efforts across this area, and the Liberal Democrats obviously targeting in very few places, it will be hard for Mr Brown but he must hope to get close as winning here would be a real sign of Labour revival.
Also looking to take advantage of the Liberal Democrat non-appearance is former district councillor, town councillor Paul Holmes, a member of the Liberal Party (those that did not merge with the Social Democrats) who came fairly close to winning in the Illogan division in 2009. As the only Liberal Party candidate in the county, Mr Holmes will doubtless have a good campaign on the go and he is a real threat to Cllr Shepherd.
For Mebyon Kernow-PC, town councillor Chris Lawrence will be hoping to be the natural candidate of those on the centre-left, a very crowded place in this division. MK did once have a district councillor in this area but I am not convinced that Mr Lawrence will take the winner's podium here.
It would all look fairly promising so far for Cllr Shepherd if it wasn't for UKIP's Derek Elliott threatening to take votes from the right. Not a particularly local man, I do not know how hard he will be campaigning, but any votes lost to him just adds to the pressure on the Tory.
I just can't see Cllr Sheppard holding on here and he could probably only win with a really divided vote and he with less than 30% of the vote.
If Labour won here, they'd be on the way to double figures at County Hall, I reckon it might be beyond them, not least due to other target seats.
Prediction: Liberal gain
Illogan
The defending candidate is Conservative Councillor Terry Wilkins, who was elected with only 32.8% of the vote but a majority of a reasonable sounding 89 votes over former Liberal councillor Paul Holmes (25.6%). The third-placed Independent candidate, Graham Ford, was only 95 votes behind (25.1%).
With Mr Holmes standing in Four Lanes and no Liberal Party candidate, the Liberal Democrats candidate, former district councillor David Ekinsmyth, will see himself as the main challenger. In the old division, the Lib Dems only managed 9.9% of the vote but if they can take Mr Holmes's and Mr Ford's vote, they might well be in with a chance. Added to this, parish councillor Ekinsmyth will surely gain from the fact that there are very few Liberal Democrats standing in the area and he will have a good team around him.
Another hoping to gain from the lack of a Liberal Party candidate will be Labour's Linda Moore; Labour would argue that Mr Holmes's votes were more from Labour people and, given the area, they may have a point, but in the battle to best the Conservative, perception is everything.
For Mebyon Kernow-Party for Cornwall, Stephen Richardson will hope to soak up the centre-left vote as well and the party has some hope here as he won an Illogan parish council by election in 2010 by 187 to 77 votes for Labour in a two horse race. A very small turnout just a month after the General Election, but it may well help him
The divided vote last time was a real bonus for Cllr Wilkins and he would hope to gain from it again. His problem is that the Independent from last time, Mr Ford, was formerly a Liberal Democrat district councillor and his voters would most likely not be natural Tory supporters, especially at this time of national unpopularity for the party. Another problem for him is the UKIP candidate, Don Armstrong, who is likely to undermine Cllr Wilkins's vote base.
Mr Richardson received a bit of a boost in receiving the endorsement of former Lib Dem district, county and town councillor, Terry Rowe. It is going to be a tough fight and could be a three horse (Con/LD/MK-PC) squeaker.
Prediction: Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall gain (but don't write off the Lib Dems)
Pool and Tehidy
If you were ever to doubt the depths of Liberal Democrats hopes for the Camborne/Redruth area, you only have to come to this division which, theoretically at least, has a Liberal Democrat councillor. Kim Willoughby was elected in 2009 with a jaw-droppingly low vote share of 27.8% - an example of Cornish political fissiparousness at its most extreme. Only 26 votes ahead of Independent candidate Diana Cousins and 78 votes ahead of the Conservative Pam Rowett, this was, by any standards, a psephologist's dream (or nightmare). Indeed, there were only 159 votes between first and last.
Last time, there was a candidate from the Liberal Party but, along with the Independent and Lib Dem, they are not represented this time.
So, the Conservatives, third placed last time but only a few votes behind, are probably seen as the main challengers. Their candidate, Clive Bramley, will doubtless be less than happy that his hopes of victory hindered by the entrance of a UKIP candidate into the race.
Labour came last in the old division and might be seen as least likely to win, but not with these candidates, in this seat at this time. Former district councillor for the area, Malcolm Moyle is standing and he will be hopeful of gaining votes from all parties since 2009. Labour's decline has shown, through local by elections, to have been arrested and if anybody can show this, it'll be former mayor Mr Moyle. Still a local town councillor, he is has a better than decent chance of being a Unitary one as well. For UKIP, Brenda Blakeley will be hoping to pick up the votes of those unhappy with the main parties and may do fairly well. Her husband, Harry, is standing in Camborne Pendarves. Although she might well gather a good number of votes, I think she and her husband will be returning to a quieter life after 2nd May.
Prediction: Labour gain
Helston
Helston is a town and civil parish at the northern end of the Lizard Peninsula, approximately 12 miles east of Penzance and nine miles southwest of Falmouth. Helston is the most southerly town in the UK and is around 1.5 miles further south than Penzance. In 2001, the town celebrated the 800th anniversary of the granting of its Charter, making it the second oldest town in Cornwall after Marazion. The town population in the 2001 census was recorded as 9,780.
There have been a number of changes in the divisions here, but they have been fairly 'voter-neutral'. Labour doesn't seem to put people up around here and, whilst I accept the importance of targeting, I do think all parties should give people a chance to at least to express their support, or otherwise.
Helston North
At the last election, Conservative Alec Robertson was elected with a comfortable majority over a divided opposition. For Councillor Robertson, it was a great election where the Conservatives won more seats than they could have expected and he became first leader of the unitary authority. A plan to partly privatise key council services led to the resignation from the cabinet of Conservative colleague Cllr Jim Currie and a council vote of no confidence in Cllr Robertson, who quit as Conservative leader and was replaced by Cllr Currie (who says the one that wields the knife rarely wins the prize?) who then became the new leader of the council.
Cllr Robertson again faces Independent candidate Phil Martin who came second in 2009. A former district councillor and the present chairman of Sithney Parish Souncil, he will be aiming to benefit from the unhappiness with national and local politics to give him a bigger vote this time.
The Liberal Democrat candidate, Mollie Scrase, will have the knowledge that Liberal Democrats have won here in the past to encourage her campaign. She has a long way to come back from though as the Lib Dems were third last time.
For UKIP, Leonie Gough is the candidate and, as with most places around the country, one can only guess at her chances of success. As ever, it is the Conservatives who would much rather they went away but Mr Martin may equally regret another place for protest votes to gather.
If Cllr Roberston's vote falls much under 40%, he could be in trouble.
Prediction: Conservative hold.
Helston South
With Helston Central now re-arranged out of existence, the defending councillor, Independent Judith Haycock is defending this division. In 2009, Councillor Haycock polled very well, gaining 50.2% of the vote and a 272 majority over the Conservative candidate. A former district councillor, Ms Haycock has been returned unopposed in the past, but that is indeed a thing of the past. This time she has four other candidates standing against her.
For the Conservatives, Tanya Dyer is standing. Ms Dyer has stood in Helston before, as an Independent in a byelection hoping to defeat the Conservatives (Helston North, November 2007); Cornish politics are really fascinating with the party political clothes swapping. There used to be an Independent Helston North district councillor called George Dyer, I guess they may be related.
Another Independent is standing in the person of James Buchanan, who has ambitious plans for the town and its future, I would point you to his webpage http://buchanan.moonfruit.com/. Best of luck with that Mr Buchanan.
For the Liberal Democrats, town councillor John Martin is running. It was a John Martin who stood for them in the Wendron byelection, doing particularly well, coming from fifth to second. If it is he, he knows how to mount a decent campaign.
For UKIP, local man Scott Blandford is running a vigorous campaign with regular leafleting and canvassing. He keeps everybody up to date on his Facebook page (I miss the old days). He will pull in a decent enough vote, I should imagine.
In the end, I think Councillor Haycock should hold on.
Prediction: Independent Haycock hold
Porthleven and Helston West
Porthleven is a town, civil parish and fishing port near Helston. It is the most southerly port on the island of Great Britain, and was originally developed as a harbour of refuge, when this part of the Cornish coastline was recognised as a black spot for wrecks in days of sail. Nearby Loe Bar was particularly infamous, with swimmers and surfers being warned off the area to this day. In 2001, it had a recorded population of 3,190.
Joined with Helston West ward.
The Porthleven and Helston South division was another of the Cornish squeakers, with Independent Andrew Wallis beating his Conservative opponent by only 17 votes with a 31.5% vote share.
The Liberal Democrats should have high hopes here and will be confident that their candidate, Richard Goedegebuur, can overtake Cllr Wallis. It will be tight and much will depend on where the votes that went for the other Independent from 2009, Maurice Pascoe, will go. The Conservatives are represented by Liz Lane, a woman who appears to love all things 40's and jive. I don't think she is going to win here, even with a decent enough Tory vote last time, but if she did, it would brighten up County Hall.
Stephen Gough is the UKIP candidate, husband of Leonie Hough in Helston North. The UKIP vote will be fascinating in a close contest and I am not sure what it will do here.
The truth is, I am not at all sure what will happen here but think it is between Cllr Wallis and Mr Goedegebuur.
Prediction: Independent hold (but Lib Dems close behind)
Mabe is a village and civil parish , the village is situated one mile west of Penryn. Mabe parish is bounded by Stithians and St. Gluvias to the north, Budock to the east, Mawnan and Constantine to the south and Wendron to the west. The parish lies at the eastern edge of the Carnmenellis Granite intrusion. It is surrounded by several working and closed quarries. The Argal and College reservoirs lie to the south of the village.
Perranarworthal is a civil parish and village. The village is about four miles northwest of Falmouth and five miles southwest of Truro. Perranarworthal parish is bordered on the north by Kea parish, on the east by Restronguet Creek and Mylor parish, on the south by St Gluvias and Stithians parishes and on the west by Gwennap parish.
Joined with Helston West ward.
The Porthleven and Helston South division was another of the Cornish squeakers, with Independent Andrew Wallis beating his Conservative opponent by only 17 votes with a 31.5% vote share.
The Liberal Democrats should have high hopes here and will be confident that their candidate, Richard Goedegebuur, can overtake Cllr Wallis. It will be tight and much will depend on where the votes that went for the other Independent from 2009, Maurice Pascoe, will go. The Conservatives are represented by Liz Lane, a woman who appears to love all things 40's and jive. I don't think she is going to win here, even with a decent enough Tory vote last time, but if she did, it would brighten up County Hall.
Stephen Gough is the UKIP candidate, husband of Leonie Hough in Helston North. The UKIP vote will be fascinating in a close contest and I am not sure what it will do here.
The truth is, I am not at all sure what will happen here but think it is between Cllr Wallis and Mr Goedegebuur.
Prediction: Independent hold (but Lib Dems close behind)
Mabe, Perranarworthal and St. Gluvias
Mabe is a village and civil parish , the village is situated one mile west of Penryn. Mabe parish is bounded by Stithians and St. Gluvias to the north, Budock to the east, Mawnan and Constantine to the south and Wendron to the west. The parish lies at the eastern edge of the Carnmenellis Granite intrusion. It is surrounded by several working and closed quarries. The Argal and College reservoirs lie to the south of the village.
Perranarworthal is a civil parish and village. The village is about four miles northwest of Falmouth and five miles southwest of Truro. Perranarworthal parish is bordered on the north by Kea parish, on the east by Restronguet Creek and Mylor parish, on the south by St Gluvias and Stithians parishes and on the west by Gwennap parish.
St Gluvias is a civil parish and village. The village is now a suburb on the northern edge of Penryn which is situated two miles northwest of Falmouth.
In 2009, the Mabe division (as was) had 7 candidates, which helps explain the tiny vote share of 29.9% which carried Conservative Councillor Chris Ridgers to victory. His majority of 80 is quite decent under those circumstances.
There are only 5 candidates in this division and the main challenger is undoubtedly the Liberal Democrat candidate, John Ault, County Councillor for Rame from 2005 to 2009. The Lib Dems had a bad year here last time and will be quite confident of a bounce back, not least with the Independent field having been reduced from 3 to only 1. Mr Ault is the Chair of the Electoral Reform Society and is completing a PhD researching the impacts of political campaigning and works as an associate political history lecturer at the University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus. I could write a lot about this man, but I won't - given his pedigree, he really should know how to win here, he did write the book!.
Standing as an Independent is Christopher Jackson who will hope to unite the non-party feeling in the area and sneak a victory, but I think it is very unlikely that he will do it in the circumstances of this election.
For Labour, experienced candidate Betty Ross, mother in law of former Falmouth and Camborne Labour MP Candy Atherton will be aiming to take Labour's vote out of the depths and make a good showing in this division. She faces the danger of being squeezed here which, given Labour's tiny 5.6% last time shouldn't be a concern but, with a good lead nationally, Labour really should be well into double figures (percentage wise) here.
UKIP's Michael Keogh is the one most likely to undermine Cllr Ridgers's hopes for survival, and a good vote here will be poison for the Tories.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Mullion and Grade-Ruan
Mullion is a civil parish and village, situated on the Lizard Peninsula approximately five miles south of Helston. Mullion civil parish encompasses the church town (now known simply as Mullion) and four smaller settlements: Mullion Cove and Predannack to the southwest; Trewoon and Meaver to the east. Mullion is bordered by the parishes of Gunwalloe and Cury to the north, Grade-Ruan to the east, Landewednack to the south, and by the sea to the west. In 2001, the census recorded the population as 1,986.
Grade–Ruan is a civil parish on the Lizard peninsula, ten miles south of Falmouth. It is a rural parish bounded to the east by St Keverne parish and by the sea; to the west by Mullion and Cury parishes; and to the south by Landewednack parish. In 2001, the census recorded the population as 1,070.
Formerly an Independent district councillor, Caroline Rule was elected in 2009 as a Conservative. She has returned to the Independent banner for this election after resigning from the Conservatives "as a matter of principle" when a zero percent budget was voted through in March of this year (yep, just a few weeks ago). She remains Cabinet Member for Economy and Regeneration, which is sort of bizarre if such an economic disagreement exists.
In 2009, the Mullion division's main challenger was the Liberal Democrats who had 30.5% of the vote (to Councillor Rule's 45.1%) so I find their decision not to stand quite baffling, but par for the course in much of Cornwall.
Picking up the Conservative banner, and technically defending this seat, is local hotelier, Alfred Mesropians. Concerned about the impact of the economy on tourism , Mr Mesropians is keen to promote the delights of Helston and the Lizard Peninsula. He has stood for the Conservative Party before and will be keen to take the Conservative vote back from Cllr Rule, but I think he knows how difficult his task will be.
The only other candidate comes from UKIP: Nina Sutherland is a trustee of the Mullion in Bloom Association and has strong views on Europe (obviously, she is UKIP) and against what she sees as creeping privitisation of the NHS - she has also 'liked' David Icke and, given that I remember his claim to be Jesus Christ on the Wogan show and his conspiracy-theory laden history since, it makes me think she is better off losing.
Prediction: Independent gain (Cllr Rule hold)
Redruth
Redruth is a town and civil parish. It had a population of 12,352 in the 2001 census. Redruth lies about 9 miles west of Truro, 12 miles east of St Ives, 18 miles north east of Penzance and 11 miles north west of Falmouth. Camborne and Redruth together form the largest urban area in Cornwall and before local government reorganisation were an urban district. The boundaries of the divisions match those of the Town Council.
Redruth Central
This division was claimed by the Conservative candidate, Mike Eddowes, in 2009 on a low vote share of 30.4%, enough to give him victory, by 8 votes, over Independent, Len Pascoe. Both district councillors at the time, it was a very tough fight. With 7 candidates in all, the spread out field was a blessing for Councillor Eddowes.
There are only three candidates standing this time : Cllr Eddowes for the Conservatives, Raymond Webber for Labour, and Wally Duncan for UKIP.
The only byelection since 2009 was a town council byelection in Redruth South in 2010, won by the Liberal Democrats over Labour. The Liberal Democrats aren't standing in this Division, or anywhere in Redruth, so this is no real guide. Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall aren't standing this time either, or the Liberal Party.
With no other claim on the centre-left vote, Labour's Raymond Webber will hope to give Cllr Eddowes a run for his money. The question is where will Mr Pascoe's old vote go, and that will be the decider in this election.
UKIP's Mr Duncan will be looking, as with most of the other UKIP candidates, to ride the popularity that the national party presently has. There is no history here so we shall have to see. Cllr Eddowes won't be pleased by his presence.
Whilst it is an area Labour would do well in other parts of the UK, it might just be beyond them here on this occasion (less than 10% of the vote last time), not least with Redruth North being the real target in Redruth.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Redruth North
This seat was always a banker for Labour in the district council days and they held the County Council seat until the elections of 2009, so the loss of the division to Independent, Lisa Dolley, in that election was a blow for them. The long time Labour councillor, (Robert) Stephen Barnes, is back to try and regain the seat this year.
Councillor Dolley was originally elected as a Liberal Democrat district councillor and may hope that the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate this time will help her, although town councillor Mr Barnes could hope for the same. She is one of two Standalone Independents (not a member of the Independent Group that shares control of the council with the Tories). Laundress Cllr Dolley is the Member Champion for Design (I have no idea what this means).
The Conservatives have no candidate this time either and the right-wing mantle is being claimed by the UKIP candidate, Ann Wood.
Labour had its best vote share here in Cornwall in 2009, 28.6%, so should really be secure in gaining this seat, but it rather depends an whether they have managed to build on the party's national popularity (against 4 years ago) and unhappiness with the Con/Ind administration in County Hall. Although Cllr Dolley is not a member of the Independent Group, voters may not make that distinction.
Prediction: Labour gain (if not here, then where?)
Redruth South
Councillor Graham Hicks, the Independent Councillor, has been synonymous with this seat for many years and has represented it as a district, County and Unitary councillor. Not being on the ballot paper, this year has the potential to be a game changer.
Defending the Independent mantle is town councillor and former mayor Ian Thomas who, whilst he will not expect to receive the 60.8% of Cllr Hicks in 2009, will at least have a reasonable hope of appealing to the independent tradition of the local voter.
There are no Liberal Democrat or Conservative candidates standing so their votes are up for grabs. Hoping to gain the lion's share of the Lib Dem votes and a number of former Tory supporters is Labour town councillor and deputy mayor, Will Tremayne. Labour did disastrously last time with the vote being 4.6% (55 out of 1,197 votes cast, shocking), so, with no other party challenger for the centre-left vote and Labour on the up nationally, they cannot fail to do much better.
For UKIP, Ray Wyse is the candidate but he seems to be very difficult to contact or find out anything about . Local Blogger, Mark Ellis, has been running a blog for Redruth South for the unitary elections and has had little joy in getting much response from Mr Wyse or UKIP. He appears to be a paper candidate. He might still get a good protest vote though.
In response to questions placed by Mr Ellis, it would appear that Mr Thomas would be more firmly on the right of the political spectrum - anybody using the phrase "living the life of Riley" in reference to welfare reform knows a 'dog-whistle' when he uses it. To be fair, he seems a committed, charitable and reasonable man. Which is just as well, as he is likely to win this seat.
Prediction: Independent hold
St Keverne and Meneage
St Keverne is a civil parish and village on the Lizard Peninsula. The Cornish Rebellion of 1497 started in St Keverne. The leader of the rebellion Michael An Gof(the "smith" in Cornish) was a blacksmith from St Keverne and is commemorated by a statue in the village. Before his execution, An Gof said that he should have "a name perpetual and a fame permanent and immortal". The 2001 census recorded the population as 2,107.
Includes parishes of Gweek (pop 581), Cury (pop 388), St Anthony-in-Meneage (pop 171),Manaccan (pop 299), St Martin-in-Meneage, St Mawgan-in-Meneage.
In 2009, the then St Keverne division elected Independent, Pamela Lyne, as the councillor with a tiny majority of 16 over the Conservative, Stephen Sobey. Of the other 5 candidates, the only other with a significant vote was former district councillor Walter Sanger, who was in third place with 18.6% of the vote. Councillor Lyne, a former district and county councillor, passed away suddenly last July (2012) and in the subsequent by election was replaced by Mr Sanger, this time standing as the Conservative candidate. He won by a clear majority over the Liberal Democrats candidate, Nicholas Driver, with 52.8% of the vote cast.
There is no Liberal Democrat or Independent candidate this time so Councillor Sanger is up against UKIP, Labour and Green candidates.
For UKIP, experienced candidate Brian Bailey will hope to improve on the 13.4% from the by election, but it seems unlikely that his vote will increase enough over that received by UKIP's Sandy Martin then to seriously threaten Cllr Sanger.
From the left, Labour's Ann Round will just be hoping that the lack of a Liberal Democrat, who managed 26.4% at the by election, will help here to raise Labour's standing from the dismal 2009 figure and above the hardly better by election figure of 4.92%.
Challenging this hope is IT consultant Dominic Brandreth for the Green Party, who will doubtless be trying to attract disenfranchised Lib Dems and the independently-minded. He could do well.
Despite the political splits in his party at County Hall, I suspect that Cllr Sanger will be safe enough this time with a comfortable majority.
Prediction: Conservative gain (hold from by election)
Lanner and Stithians
Lanner is a village and civil parish, about 2 miles (3.2 km) southeast of Redruth. The population of Lanner civil parish was 2,493 in the 2001 census.
Stithians, also known as St Stythians, is a village and civil parish. It lies in the middle of the triangle bounded by Redruth, Helston and Falmouth. Its population (2001) is 2,004.
The parish is mainly agricultural, lying south of the Gwennap mining area and north of the quarrying areas of Rame and Longdowns.
Very much a new division, the 'defending' candidate is Councillor Neil Plummer, elected as an Independent in 2009 for the old Stithians division, Cllr Plummer defected to Mebyon Kernow-The Party of Cornwall in August of 2010 and is still registered on the Council website as a member of the group. I guess standing as an Independent makes one more likely to win in this area.
Cllr Plummer has been an Independent district and county councillor for this area for a long time and should feel confident of winning this seat.
Discomfiting him are three other Independent candidates. The first of these (in strict alphabetical order) is James Biscoe, a Stithians parish councillor, followed by John Thomas, a Lanner Parish counciller, and Stithian Parish Council chairman, Peter Tisdale, all of whom are actively campaigning in this election. It is difficult to see who will break out of the pack. Mr Biscoe stood for the district council in 2007 against Cllr Plumber. Mr Thomas stood in the old St Day and Lanner division in 2009 and managed a fairly respectable vote share (20.8%), but was well beaten by Cllr Kaszmarek; he is a former Liberal Democrat district councillor for the old St Day, Lanner and Carharrack ward.
For Labour, Laura Eyre is standing and will be lucky to be heard over the din of the campaign. Labour do not do well around here but, following 2009's disaster, she can at least hope to increase the vote.
UKIP has architect Bob Mims as a candidate, he is the honorary secretary of the Hayle Model Railway Club. I know nothing else about him but I would guess he will receive a fair number of votes although the various Independents will be scrapping for every elector.
For Cllr Plummer, this is an interesting battle which he should win, although his 'independence' may well be questioned.
Prediction: Independent Plummer hold
In 2009, the Mabe division (as was) had 7 candidates, which helps explain the tiny vote share of 29.9% which carried Conservative Councillor Chris Ridgers to victory. His majority of 80 is quite decent under those circumstances.
There are only 5 candidates in this division and the main challenger is undoubtedly the Liberal Democrat candidate, John Ault, County Councillor for Rame from 2005 to 2009. The Lib Dems had a bad year here last time and will be quite confident of a bounce back, not least with the Independent field having been reduced from 3 to only 1. Mr Ault is the Chair of the Electoral Reform Society and is completing a PhD researching the impacts of political campaigning and works as an associate political history lecturer at the University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus. I could write a lot about this man, but I won't - given his pedigree, he really should know how to win here, he did write the book!.
Standing as an Independent is Christopher Jackson who will hope to unite the non-party feeling in the area and sneak a victory, but I think it is very unlikely that he will do it in the circumstances of this election.
For Labour, experienced candidate Betty Ross, mother in law of former Falmouth and Camborne Labour MP Candy Atherton will be aiming to take Labour's vote out of the depths and make a good showing in this division. She faces the danger of being squeezed here which, given Labour's tiny 5.6% last time shouldn't be a concern but, with a good lead nationally, Labour really should be well into double figures (percentage wise) here.
UKIP's Michael Keogh is the one most likely to undermine Cllr Ridgers's hopes for survival, and a good vote here will be poison for the Tories.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain
Mullion and Grade-Ruan
Mullion is a civil parish and village, situated on the Lizard Peninsula approximately five miles south of Helston. Mullion civil parish encompasses the church town (now known simply as Mullion) and four smaller settlements: Mullion Cove and Predannack to the southwest; Trewoon and Meaver to the east. Mullion is bordered by the parishes of Gunwalloe and Cury to the north, Grade-Ruan to the east, Landewednack to the south, and by the sea to the west. In 2001, the census recorded the population as 1,986.
Grade–Ruan is a civil parish on the Lizard peninsula, ten miles south of Falmouth. It is a rural parish bounded to the east by St Keverne parish and by the sea; to the west by Mullion and Cury parishes; and to the south by Landewednack parish. In 2001, the census recorded the population as 1,070.
Formerly an Independent district councillor, Caroline Rule was elected in 2009 as a Conservative. She has returned to the Independent banner for this election after resigning from the Conservatives "as a matter of principle" when a zero percent budget was voted through in March of this year (yep, just a few weeks ago). She remains Cabinet Member for Economy and Regeneration, which is sort of bizarre if such an economic disagreement exists.
In 2009, the Mullion division's main challenger was the Liberal Democrats who had 30.5% of the vote (to Councillor Rule's 45.1%) so I find their decision not to stand quite baffling, but par for the course in much of Cornwall.
Picking up the Conservative banner, and technically defending this seat, is local hotelier, Alfred Mesropians. Concerned about the impact of the economy on tourism , Mr Mesropians is keen to promote the delights of Helston and the Lizard Peninsula. He has stood for the Conservative Party before and will be keen to take the Conservative vote back from Cllr Rule, but I think he knows how difficult his task will be.
The only other candidate comes from UKIP: Nina Sutherland is a trustee of the Mullion in Bloom Association and has strong views on Europe (obviously, she is UKIP) and against what she sees as creeping privitisation of the NHS - she has also 'liked' David Icke and, given that I remember his claim to be Jesus Christ on the Wogan show and his conspiracy-theory laden history since, it makes me think she is better off losing.
Prediction: Independent gain (Cllr Rule hold)
Redruth
Redruth is a town and civil parish. It had a population of 12,352 in the 2001 census. Redruth lies about 9 miles west of Truro, 12 miles east of St Ives, 18 miles north east of Penzance and 11 miles north west of Falmouth. Camborne and Redruth together form the largest urban area in Cornwall and before local government reorganisation were an urban district. The boundaries of the divisions match those of the Town Council.
Redruth Central
This division was claimed by the Conservative candidate, Mike Eddowes, in 2009 on a low vote share of 30.4%, enough to give him victory, by 8 votes, over Independent, Len Pascoe. Both district councillors at the time, it was a very tough fight. With 7 candidates in all, the spread out field was a blessing for Councillor Eddowes.
There are only three candidates standing this time : Cllr Eddowes for the Conservatives, Raymond Webber for Labour, and Wally Duncan for UKIP.
The only byelection since 2009 was a town council byelection in Redruth South in 2010, won by the Liberal Democrats over Labour. The Liberal Democrats aren't standing in this Division, or anywhere in Redruth, so this is no real guide. Mebyon Kernow-Party of Cornwall aren't standing this time either, or the Liberal Party.
With no other claim on the centre-left vote, Labour's Raymond Webber will hope to give Cllr Eddowes a run for his money. The question is where will Mr Pascoe's old vote go, and that will be the decider in this election.
UKIP's Mr Duncan will be looking, as with most of the other UKIP candidates, to ride the popularity that the national party presently has. There is no history here so we shall have to see. Cllr Eddowes won't be pleased by his presence.
Whilst it is an area Labour would do well in other parts of the UK, it might just be beyond them here on this occasion (less than 10% of the vote last time), not least with Redruth North being the real target in Redruth.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Redruth North
This seat was always a banker for Labour in the district council days and they held the County Council seat until the elections of 2009, so the loss of the division to Independent, Lisa Dolley, in that election was a blow for them. The long time Labour councillor, (Robert) Stephen Barnes, is back to try and regain the seat this year.
Councillor Dolley was originally elected as a Liberal Democrat district councillor and may hope that the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate this time will help her, although town councillor Mr Barnes could hope for the same. She is one of two Standalone Independents (not a member of the Independent Group that shares control of the council with the Tories). Laundress Cllr Dolley is the Member Champion for Design (I have no idea what this means).
The Conservatives have no candidate this time either and the right-wing mantle is being claimed by the UKIP candidate, Ann Wood.
Labour had its best vote share here in Cornwall in 2009, 28.6%, so should really be secure in gaining this seat, but it rather depends an whether they have managed to build on the party's national popularity (against 4 years ago) and unhappiness with the Con/Ind administration in County Hall. Although Cllr Dolley is not a member of the Independent Group, voters may not make that distinction.
Prediction: Labour gain (if not here, then where?)
Redruth South
Councillor Graham Hicks, the Independent Councillor, has been synonymous with this seat for many years and has represented it as a district, County and Unitary councillor. Not being on the ballot paper, this year has the potential to be a game changer.
Defending the Independent mantle is town councillor and former mayor Ian Thomas who, whilst he will not expect to receive the 60.8% of Cllr Hicks in 2009, will at least have a reasonable hope of appealing to the independent tradition of the local voter.
There are no Liberal Democrat or Conservative candidates standing so their votes are up for grabs. Hoping to gain the lion's share of the Lib Dem votes and a number of former Tory supporters is Labour town councillor and deputy mayor, Will Tremayne. Labour did disastrously last time with the vote being 4.6% (55 out of 1,197 votes cast, shocking), so, with no other party challenger for the centre-left vote and Labour on the up nationally, they cannot fail to do much better.
For UKIP, Ray Wyse is the candidate but he seems to be very difficult to contact or find out anything about . Local Blogger, Mark Ellis, has been running a blog for Redruth South for the unitary elections and has had little joy in getting much response from Mr Wyse or UKIP. He appears to be a paper candidate. He might still get a good protest vote though.
In response to questions placed by Mr Ellis, it would appear that Mr Thomas would be more firmly on the right of the political spectrum - anybody using the phrase "living the life of Riley" in reference to welfare reform knows a 'dog-whistle' when he uses it. To be fair, he seems a committed, charitable and reasonable man. Which is just as well, as he is likely to win this seat.
Prediction: Independent hold
St Keverne and Meneage
St Keverne is a civil parish and village on the Lizard Peninsula. The Cornish Rebellion of 1497 started in St Keverne. The leader of the rebellion Michael An Gof(the "smith" in Cornish) was a blacksmith from St Keverne and is commemorated by a statue in the village. Before his execution, An Gof said that he should have "a name perpetual and a fame permanent and immortal". The 2001 census recorded the population as 2,107.
Includes parishes of Gweek (pop 581), Cury (pop 388), St Anthony-in-Meneage (pop 171),Manaccan (pop 299), St Martin-in-Meneage, St Mawgan-in-Meneage.
In 2009, the then St Keverne division elected Independent, Pamela Lyne, as the councillor with a tiny majority of 16 over the Conservative, Stephen Sobey. Of the other 5 candidates, the only other with a significant vote was former district councillor Walter Sanger, who was in third place with 18.6% of the vote. Councillor Lyne, a former district and county councillor, passed away suddenly last July (2012) and in the subsequent by election was replaced by Mr Sanger, this time standing as the Conservative candidate. He won by a clear majority over the Liberal Democrats candidate, Nicholas Driver, with 52.8% of the vote cast.
There is no Liberal Democrat or Independent candidate this time so Councillor Sanger is up against UKIP, Labour and Green candidates.
For UKIP, experienced candidate Brian Bailey will hope to improve on the 13.4% from the by election, but it seems unlikely that his vote will increase enough over that received by UKIP's Sandy Martin then to seriously threaten Cllr Sanger.
From the left, Labour's Ann Round will just be hoping that the lack of a Liberal Democrat, who managed 26.4% at the by election, will help here to raise Labour's standing from the dismal 2009 figure and above the hardly better by election figure of 4.92%.
Challenging this hope is IT consultant Dominic Brandreth for the Green Party, who will doubtless be trying to attract disenfranchised Lib Dems and the independently-minded. He could do well.
Despite the political splits in his party at County Hall, I suspect that Cllr Sanger will be safe enough this time with a comfortable majority.
Prediction: Conservative gain (hold from by election)
Lanner and Stithians
Lanner is a village and civil parish, about 2 miles (3.2 km) southeast of Redruth. The population of Lanner civil parish was 2,493 in the 2001 census.
Stithians, also known as St Stythians, is a village and civil parish. It lies in the middle of the triangle bounded by Redruth, Helston and Falmouth. Its population (2001) is 2,004.
The parish is mainly agricultural, lying south of the Gwennap mining area and north of the quarrying areas of Rame and Longdowns.
Very much a new division, the 'defending' candidate is Councillor Neil Plummer, elected as an Independent in 2009 for the old Stithians division, Cllr Plummer defected to Mebyon Kernow-The Party of Cornwall in August of 2010 and is still registered on the Council website as a member of the group. I guess standing as an Independent makes one more likely to win in this area.
Cllr Plummer has been an Independent district and county councillor for this area for a long time and should feel confident of winning this seat.
Discomfiting him are three other Independent candidates. The first of these (in strict alphabetical order) is James Biscoe, a Stithians parish councillor, followed by John Thomas, a Lanner Parish counciller, and Stithian Parish Council chairman, Peter Tisdale, all of whom are actively campaigning in this election. It is difficult to see who will break out of the pack. Mr Biscoe stood for the district council in 2007 against Cllr Plumber. Mr Thomas stood in the old St Day and Lanner division in 2009 and managed a fairly respectable vote share (20.8%), but was well beaten by Cllr Kaszmarek; he is a former Liberal Democrat district councillor for the old St Day, Lanner and Carharrack ward.
For Labour, Laura Eyre is standing and will be lucky to be heard over the din of the campaign. Labour do not do well around here but, following 2009's disaster, she can at least hope to increase the vote.
UKIP has architect Bob Mims as a candidate, he is the honorary secretary of the Hayle Model Railway Club. I know nothing else about him but I would guess he will receive a fair number of votes although the various Independents will be scrapping for every elector.
For Cllr Plummer, this is an interesting battle which he should win, although his 'independence' may well be questioned.
Prediction: Independent Plummer hold
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